TDF 2017 Predicitions

[Dr. Watson]

Re:

Has the points rules changed for the Green jersey this year? Sagan was way shorter odds last year, I was thinking maybe they are trying to Sagan proof the Green Jersey? But he manages to get so many podiums anyway, it is very difficult (and stupid) to do.

I dont think it changed there are just much more flat sprint stages this year which sucks

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Has the points rules changed for the Green jersey this year? Sagan was way shorter odds last year, I was thinking maybe they are trying to Sagan proof the Green Jersey? But he manages to get so many podiums anyway, it is very difficult (and stupid) to do.

I dont think it changed there are just much more flat sprint stages this year which sucks

Yes, Im also 99% sure the system hasn't changed. But Prudhomme and ASO stage making went from quite good in 16 to pretty damn pathetic in 17...

 

[TM Dane]

Podium: 1. Porte 2. Froome, 3. Bardet
Green: Sagan
KOM: De Gendt
White: Meintjes
Top 10: 4. Quintana, 5. Meintjes, 6. Contador, 7. Aru, 8. Fuglsang, 9. Valverde, 10. Yates
Breakthrough rider: Calmejane
Most stage wins: Kittel
Cavendish stage wins: 0

 

[tobydawq]

No, the system hasn't changed but the route has.

 

[Pennino]

Podium: 1 Contador 2 Aru 3 Quintana
Green: Sagan
KOM: Aru
White: Latour
Top 10: Froome, Bardet, Chaves, Valverde, Majka, Latour, Yates
Breakthrough rider: Latour
Most stage wins: Kittel
Cavendish stage wins: 1

 

[Tonton]

Podium: 1. Porte, 2. Froome, 3. Quintana
Green Jersey: Sagan
KOM: Pinot
White Jersey: Yates
Top-10: 4. Contador, 5. Aru, 6. Bardet, 7. Valverde, 8. Birdsong, 9. Yates, 10. Meintjes
Breakthrough Rider: None
Most Stage Wins: Pinot - 3 (a la Giro Landa, but he's a better sprinter )
Cavendish Stage Wins: 1

 

[Jungle Cycle]

Podium: 1. Froome, 2. Quintana, 3. Contador
Green: Sagan
KOM: Barguil
White: Latour
Top 10: 4. Bardet, 5. Porte, 6. Aru, 7. Chaves, 8. Valverde, 9. Latour, 10. Yates
Breakthrough rider: Cynk
Most stage wins: Kittel
1st time in yellow: Roglic......

 

[Spicco]

First time since the Sky era began that I'm really excited for the Tour. Still think Froome will win in the end tho

I reckon:

Froome
Porte

minutes

Aru
Quintana
Valverde
Bardet
Contador
Martin
Majka
Yates

 

[Oliver]

Podium: 1 Froome 2 Porte 3 Valverde
Green: Sagan
KOM: Pinot
White: Meintjes
Top 10: Contador, Quintana, Aru, Bardet, Meintjes, Yates S, Martin D
Breakthrough rider: Latour
Most stage wins: Kittel
Cavendish stage wins: 0

 

[SoigneurNL]

Podium: 1. Porte, 2. Froome, 3. Bardet
Green: Sagan
KOM: Gesink
White: Latour
Top 10: 4. Contador, 5. Aru 6. Quintana, 7. Chaves, 8. Bennett, 9. Latour, 10. Yates
Breakthrough rider: Bennett
Most stage wins: Kittel
1st time in yellow: Roglic

Oke, some of this might be me being a fanboy

 

[tomorrow]

Re:

No, the system hasn't changed but the route has.

And also Gilbert is in monster form this year, so Sagan will have it more difficult to collect the points in stages with punchy finish.

 

[miguelindurain111]

Froome, Porte, Aru, Nairo, Contador, Bardet

 

[latino]

Podium: 1. Froome, 2. Porte, 3. Bardet
Green: Sagan
KOM: Froome
White: Buchman
Top 10: 4. Quintana, 5. Contador, 6. Aru, 7. Valverde 8. Pinot, 9. Majka, 10. Fuglsang
Breakthrough: Buchman & Roglic
Most stage wins: Sagan (3)
Cavendish wins: 0

 

[ad9898]

1. Contador 2. Contador 3. Contador

Top 10 - see top 3

I should be right once

Seriously though, I want Contador to win but can't see past Froome, he'll be ready and he's a demon downhill these days too. Porte won't last three weeks. He's 32 and never been on a GT podium.

 

[Anderis]

People keep bringing "he has never been on a GT podium" argument for Porte like forgetting that the main reason he didn't podium last year's TdF was a puncture he got on one of the opening stages.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re:

People keep bringing "he has never been on a GT podium" argument for Porte like forgetting that the main reason he didn't podium last year's TdF was a puncture he got on one of the opening stages.

You can't really use these speculations to anything. Then what if Quintana hadn't been ill? If Contador hadn't crashed?

 

[Ruby United]

Re: Re:

People keep bringing "he has never been on a GT podium" argument for Porte like forgetting that the main reason he didn't podium last year's TdF was a puncture he got on one of the opening stages.

You can't really use these speculations to anything. Then what if Quintana hadn't been ill? If Contador hadn't crashed?

There is a clear difference between Quintana and Contador and the case of Porte.

Quintana was hampered by illness. We don't know how his form would have been throughout the whole Tour if not for the illness. Thus we cannot determine what would have happened had he not been ill.

Contador crashed and had a fever and pulled out. We don't know how his form would have been throughout the whole Tour if not for the crash and illness and him pulling out. Thus we cannot determine what would have happened had he not been ill.

Porte raced the whole Tour at top form and was only hampered by a puncture. We do know how his form was throughout the whole Tour. Thus we can determine what would have happened if not for the puncture.

Simple logic

 

[drc]

Podium: 1. Quintana, 2. Porte, 3. Majka
Green: Kwiatkowski
KOM: Pinot
White: Meinjtes
Top 10: 4. Bardet, 5. Aru, 6. Chaves, 7. Meintjes, 8. Yates, 9. Fuglsang, 10. Valverde
Most stage wins: Porte (4)
Cavendish wins: 1
Froome and Contador won't finish

 

[rghysens]

Podium: 1. Froome, 2. Porte, 3. Aru
Green: Sagan
KOM: Bardet
White: Yates
Most stage wins: Porte, Kittel, Cavendish, Sagan (all 2)

 

[Sestriere]

Podium: 1. Aru, 2. Froome, 3. Contador
Green: Sagan
KOM: Uran
White: Meintjes
Top 10: 4. Quintana, 5. Valverde, 6. Majka, 7. Meintjes, 8. Bardet, 9. Fuglsang, 10. Buchmann
Breakthrough rider: Latour, Buchmann, Betancur (okay, rather comeback of the Tour than breakthrough...)
Most stage wins: Kittel
Cavendish stage wins: 0
First Yellow Jersey: Sütterlin

 

[flashke]

Re: Re:

People keep bringing "he has never been on a GT podium" argument for Porte like forgetting that the main reason he didn't podium last year's TdF was a puncture he got on one of the opening stages.

You can't really use these speculations to anything. Then what if Quintana hadn't been ill? If Contador hadn't crashed?

There is a clear difference between Quintana and Contador and the case of Porte.

Quintana was hampered by illness. We don't know how his form would have been throughout the whole Tour if not for the illness. Thus we cannot determine what would have happened had he not been ill.

Contador crashed and had a fever and pulled out. We don't know how his form would have been throughout the whole Tour if not for the crash and illness and him pulling out. Thus we cannot determine what would have happened had he not been ill.

Porte raced the whole Tour at top form and was only hampered by a puncture. We do know how his form was throughout the whole Tour. Thus we can determine what would have happened if not for the puncture.

Simple logic

Simple logic: if Quintana wasn't ill, he would have been in a better shape. That's a fact. How much better? That's the thing we don't know. If Contador didn't crash, Porte would have another rival. That's a fact. Was Contador in a better shape? That's the thing we don't know.

Do you think Quintana/Bardet would just let him take that podium place? They knew Porte was behind them in the GC, so there was no need for them to attack Porte. We don't know the tactics of AG2R or Movistar if Porte was ahead of them, we will never know.

Simple logic

 

[Anderis]

Re: Re:

People keep bringing "he has never been on a GT podium" argument for Porte like forgetting that the main reason he didn't podium last year's TdF was a puncture he got on one of the opening stages.

You can't really use these speculations to anything. Then what if Quintana hadn't been ill? If Contador hadn't crashed?

These are not speculations.

Porte rode 3 weeks on a good level without a major off-day. He simply proved he is capable of it. Whether he would've really made a podium or not if all others were in their top form and without bad luck is not relevant. He proved he can be in the mix.

 

[Valv.Piti]

1. Don Alejandro
2. Froome
3. Porte
4. Quintana
5. Contador
6. Aru
7. Bardet
8. Latour
9. Fuglsang
10. Buchmann

Green: Démare
Polka: Pinot
White: Latour
Team GC: Ag2R

 

[Anderis]

Podium: 1 Talansky 2 Uran 3 Rolland
Green: Bevin
KOM: Rolland
White: Bettiol
Top 10: Brown, Clarke, Bettiol, Bevin, Van Baarle, Phinney, Kittel
Breakthrough rider: Bevin
Most stage wins: Bevin
Cavendish stage wins: 0

 

[ThePirate81]

Podium: 1 Froome 2 Quintana 3 Porte
Green: Sagan
KOM: Majka
White: Meintjes
Top 10: Aru,Contador,Bardet,Dan Martin,Valverde,Meintjes,Roglic
Breakthrough rider: Roglic
Most stage wins: Sagan
Cavendish stage wins: 1
First Yellow Jersey: Tony Martin