TdF 2018 stage 3 TTT Cholet 35.5 km

[Gigs_98]

Given this year's insane mountain stages this should be 70km or nothing. Tomorrow is pointless and a waste of a race day.

If it was a 70 km ITT fine (a bit long for my liking but still a better option) but with a team as strong as sky that can just control the remaining 18 stages giving their leader an advantage just for being in the right team is stupid.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

Nibali will most likely be a victim of the TTT and the big teams like Sky and BMC will reap the rewards

I doubt that. 1'15" at most. 20 something seconds down on Froome in GC.

I think you are underestimating the Bahrain TTT suck. It's rolling, too, much bigger time loss over straight flat power course.

We'll see. This is not Dauphine, it's Tour de France.

 

[sir fly]

It's not like they can push themselves harder than they're able to, but I think having the time references will be useful on this course.
The favourites are still the same, but the final margin might be thinner than in the different starting order.

 

[tobydawq]

Re:

That makes no sense. As the sprinters have learned, until the final 200 metres you are better off in a group..

Of course. But sometimes weak links slow down teams. They would then be able to go faster - if an accident happened, everybody didn't have to wait unless they made a calculation that that would be the better thing to do.

If there were a climb on the route, they could speculate whether or not it would be beneficiary to let their heavier riders survive.

Etc.

The group ride would still be the essence but maybe sometimes the time could be quicker if only two riders survived.

 

[Red Rick]

Any changes in weather predicted throughout the day?

I mean just having a TTT in neutral circumstances wouldn't be enough right

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

I’m hoping for the smallest possible time gaps to limit the impact of this egregiously unfair stupidity, but expecting carnage.

 

[HelloDolly]

It the top 4 riders across the line so dont think Nibali will do too bad with 2 Izagirre brothers & Cobrelli

Teams that may be in trouble are UAE & Astana
Wonder gow Landa will do for Movistar

 

[Valv.Piti]

Im taking a TTT any day over a sprint stage. Unfair, yes, maybe, but at least its pretty interesting and entertaining viewing IMO.

 

[Oliwright]

Prediction:
1.Sky
2.BMC
3.Sunweb
4.Quickstep
5.Movistar
6.Michelton
7.AG2R
8.Lotto Nl Jumbo
9.Bora
10.Astana

I reckon Movistar onwards could loose 1min+. Sky will finish the course with G, Froome, Moscon, Kwiat & Castro. I'm guessing Wout, Rowe & Bernal won't be able to hold on for too long.

 

[HelloDolly]

Prediction:
1.Sky
2.BMC
3.Sunweb
4.Quickstep
5.Movistar
6.Michelton
7.AG2R
8.Lotto Nl Jumbo
9.Bora
10.Astana

I reckon Movistar onwards could loose 1min+. Sky will finish the course with G, Froome, Moscon, Kwiat & Castro. I'm guessing Wout, Rowe & Bernal won't be able to hold on for too long.

Bernal should be there ...but the team will need to finish with 5 and use up the others
Maybe Moscon or Kwaito will not finish with Froome

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

I would think Quickstep will win, especially knowing their rivals times.

Why would it matter knowing their rivals' times? Each team rides as fast as possible according to a plan - you can't be half a minute faster by knowing a time of a rival.

It does at times seem to make a difference. Movistar always riders a worse TTT when they are first off than if they have teams to target their pace to. Also some riders who in ITTs can do this as well. Other teams it doesn't matter.

 

[Oliwright]

Prediction:
1.Sky
2.BMC
3.Sunweb
4.Quickstep
5.Movistar
6.Michelton
7.AG2R
8.Lotto Nl Jumbo
9.Bora
10.Astana

I reckon Movistar onwards could loose 1min+. Sky will finish the course with G, Froome, Moscon, Kwiat & Castro. I'm guessing Wout, Rowe & Bernal won't be able to hold on for too long.

RIP Wanty, Cofidis & Fortuneo. 3mins minimum probably closers to 4 or 5

 

[Koronin]

Astana loosing LL Sanchez today is a huge blow to any hope they had with limiting their losses in the TTT tomorrow.

 

[b.broadhurst]

Did Sky wear their new skinsuits at the Dauphiné?

Only BMC and Mitchelton Scott to finish within a minute of Sky!

 

[kiszol]

Only BMC and Mitchelton Scott to finish within a minute of Sky!

I think it's very unlikely that Sky can beat Sunweb with more than a minute. My prediction is ~25-30 sec.
Sunweb has 5 very good TTers, including the world champion.

Interestingly enough I think MS will lose more than a minute.

My prediction:

1. Sky
2. BMC
3. Sunweb
4. Quickstep
5. Mitchelton
6. Bora
7. AG2R
8. Lotto Nl Jumbo
9. Bahrain
10. EF
11. Movistar
12. Astana

Sunweb may even beat BMC!

 

[Koronin]

I still think BMC wins by a less than 5 seconds. Sunweb will be close, no way they loose more than 30 seconds. I also think Quickstep could surprise and finish very close to BMC and Sky. They have at times put in good TTTs. Also they brought a sprint team and that can lead to a good TTT. The ONLY good news for Movistar is this is a hilly/lumpy course and not pan flat. Their biggest problems is the 3 best time trialists they brought are Valverde, Amador, and Soler.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re:

Im taking a TTT any day over a sprint stage. Unfair, yes, maybe, but at least its pretty interesting and entertaining viewing IMO.

I would actually prefer a big bunch sprint even just in terms of one stage entertainment - we still haven’t seen a full big bunch sprint with all of the contenders present and going for it and this is probably the best sprint field ever assembled at a GT. But the real problem isn’t entertainment tomorrow, it’s the damage tomorrow may do to the entertainment value of the next two and a half weeks that concerns me.

 

[Koronin]

I actually enjoy watching a TTT as when done well it's a thing of beauty. However, the problem is the major damage it can do to the actual race.

 

[jaylew]

Re: Re:

Im taking a TTT any day over a sprint stage. Unfair, yes, maybe, but at least its pretty interesting and entertaining viewing IMO.

I would actually prefer a big bunch sprint even just in terms of one stage entertainment - we still haven’t seen a full big bunch sprint with all of the contenders present and going for it and this is probably the best sprint field ever assembled at a GT. But the real problem isn’t entertainment tomorrow, it’s the damage tomorrow may do to the entertainment value of the next two and a half weeks that concerns me.

I agree with you. Even if there are only a few minutes of suspense and action in a sprint stage, it's more than you generally get in a TTT. ITTs, sprint stages, and breakaway stages are all more entertaining to me.

I rarely even care all that much about watching them live and never worry about avoiding the results until I can go back and watch later. Just reading the results is enough as there's generally no suspense at all. They're almost always early in the race so it's not like an ITT where you can be on pins and needles watching how the result determines the final podium.

 

[movingtarget]

This could be a more interesting TTT than most considering the way the race has already played out. Might be a surprise or two. But hopefully no crashes. I hate to see a GC contender have his race ruined by a crash in the TTT.

 

[42x16ss]

There will be a few teams that will do better than people here are expecting IMO. Bahrain should be ok with Colbrelli, Haussler, Izaguirre bros to help Nibali. MS and Sky won’t be helped with the early start and MS also have to worry about Yates, Impey and Durbridge’s crashes. Sunweb will be hard to beat, I also think Lotto-NL will go ok too.

Of the GC teams AG2R concerns me, they really only have Naeson and Gallopin, Movistar has Bennati, Erviti and Rojas, not super but can minimise losses, UAE, Astana and Trek will struggle.

 

[Koronin]

Re:

There will be a few teams that will do better than people here are expecting IMO. Bahrain should be ok with Colbrelli, Haussler, Izaguirre bros to help Nibali. MS and Sky won’t be helped with the early start and MS also have to worry about Yates, Impey and Durbridge’s crashes. Sunweb will be hard to beat, I also think Lotto-NL will go ok too.

Of the GC teams AG2R concerns me, they really only have Naeson and Gallopin, Movistar has Bennati, Erviti and Rojas, not super but can minimise losses, UAE, Astana and Trek will struggle.

With Movistar remember that Amador is pretty good with TTTs (more so than ITTs), Soler has proven he can ride a good TT and Valverde is actually fairly good at TTs as long as he's not suffering any ill effects mentally from his crash last year. Quintana and Landa are actually most likely their weakest links for the TTT. Go figure. They also aren't helped by the early start time, but at least they will have Sky's time as a reference.

 

[SKSemtex]

BORA could do great here with their classic team. Question is. Has Majka GS goals or is he here ju for stage or dot jarsey hunting.
If he has I think BORA will be top 5 tommorow and within 40 seconds to Sky.

 

[Bot. Sky_Bot]

Majka's goal is GC.

 

[Oliwright]

Alright GERAINT for the love of god please stay on your bike today... :exclaim: