TdF 2018 stage 3 TTT Cholet 35.5 km

[Robert5091]

BMC have no Dennis. Tommy D's plans rest on how well Sunweb can do. If he's still ahead of Froome after today, it'll be interesting. How well will Sky's skinny versions of G, Kwia, & Moscon do?

I expect whoever gets the yellow jersey today will try to keep it until Sunday so the team support car is nearest -

During the race, the two vehicles must drive on the right side of the road and in the order established according to the position of the first rider of each team in the general individual time ranking.

If there's only seconds between riders though that can be "interesting"!

 

[Bolder]

I'm picking Sunweb to win. TD's strategy is (logically) based on avoiding trouble in the mountains and taking as much time as possible in the time trials. If Sunweb win this he'll have the yellow, as he's just one second behind Thomas and equal with GVA (the other two teams that have the best shot at winning. So, fairly certain that Sunweb have been training extra hard for this one (and might even draw some extra motivation from what some saw as a bit of taunting by Sky in the Giro finale).

 

[dacooley]

I don't really think Sky / Subweb rely on fighting off in the mountains relatively easily. Moreover it's close to being impossible. With Nibs, Bardet and Movistar mountain stages are going to be slaughterous in this year's Tour, I'm expecting Bahrain and Movistar to test Froome and Dimoulin early in the stages many times.

Sky
BMC, Sunweb - +20''
Astana, Movistar, Ag2r - 1'30''

 

[whittashau]

Why is everyone saying Bahrain will do bad? Everyone that that team outside of Pelizotti can time trial well on their day,. Even Pozzovivo does a good TT when he's onform

 

[kiszol]

Re:

I'm picking Sunweb to win. TD's strategy is (logically) based on avoiding trouble in the mountains and taking as much time as possible in the time trials. If Sunweb win this he'll have the yellow, as he's just one second behind Thomas and equal with GVA (the other two teams that have the best shot at winning. So, fairly certain that Sunweb have been training extra hard for this one (and might even draw some extra motivation from what some saw as a bit of taunting by Sky in the Giro finale).

Very true.
And people tend to forget, that Sunweb is the TTT world champion. And that race was held on a somewhat similar course. If we look at the squads, 4th QS is almost identical, Sky is very similar with Froome, G, Kwiato, Miscon and Castroviejo instead of Kiryienka. BMC is definitely weaker without Dennis and with a must to carry Porte, and Sunweb is roughly the same in strength with a very strong Andersen (who came second only down on Küng a few weeks ago at the Tour de Suisse TT) and great TTers Haga and Arndt instead of Kelderman, Oomen and Kämna.

Will be close between that three teams.

 

[movingtarget]

BMC have no Dennis. Tommy D's plans rest on how well Sunweb can do. If he's still ahead of Froome after today, it'll be interesting. How well will Sky's skinny versions of G, Kwia, & Moscon do?

I expect whoever gets the yellow jersey today will try to keep it until Sunday so the team support car is nearest -

During the race, the two vehicles must drive on the right side of the road and in the order established according to the position of the first rider of each team in the general individual time ranking.

If there's only seconds between riders though that can be "interesting"!

BMC still have a strong core for the TTT. Dennis would have improved them but he did the Giro and they were not going to pick him for one stage.

 

[SafeBet]

Gut feeling: QS will do much better than expected, could be close to BMC, Sky and Sunweb.

Astana and UAE will lose a lot.

 

[janraaskalt]

Re:

Gut feeling: QS will do much better than expected, could be close to BMC, Sky and Sunweb.

Is there anyone who doesn't expect that?

 

[bambino]

Re:

Why is everyone saying Bahrain will do bad? Everyone that that team outside of Pelizotti can time trial well on their day,. Even Pozzovivo does a good TT when he's onform

I'm a bit puzzled about this as well... they have #2 and #3 TT'ers of recent Spain championships with Izaguirre's who lost only 37 and 38 second in 48 minutes to Castroviejo. Both beat i.e. Valverde comfortably. Koren, Combrelli, Haussler (if he is OK after crash) are decent TT'ers. Nibs himself of course can TT well. And even Pozzo and Delphino are useful on the hills of this TTT.

People here are probably taking the Dauphine TTT as benchmark, but that team was completely different compared to what is on the road today. Only Nibs, Delphino and Haussler were there. And we all know Nibs and Delphino were not exactly in the shape of their lives.

I'll go with Rollthedize that Bahrain will not lose more than 1,5 minutes to the winner, probably less.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

Im taking a TTT any day over a sprint stage. Unfair, yes, maybe, but at least its pretty interesting and entertaining viewing IMO.

Just give me that freaking, boring as hell sprint I don't even watch, cause at least it doesn't do anything to make the race more unfair.

 

[janraaskalt]

Re: Re:

Im taking a TTT any day over a sprint stage. Unfair, yes, maybe, but at least its pretty interesting and entertaining viewing IMO.

Just give me that freaking, boring as hell sprint I don't even watch, cause at least it doesn't do anything to make the race more unfair.

You could see cycling as a team sports instead of an individual sports where some individuals get more support than others.

Besides, it's within the rules to gather great support riders around you and attract sponsors to pay for that. That is a quality as well. Cycling is so much more than who has the highest Vo2 max. That makes it attractive.

 

[TourOfSardinia]

bluesky thinking
TTTs should have a handicap system like horse racing
you add weight depending on the team budget.

 

[46&twoWheels]

Re: Re:

Im taking a TTT any day over a sprint stage. Unfair, yes, maybe, but at least its pretty interesting and entertaining viewing IMO.

Just give me that freaking, boring as hell sprint I don't even watch, cause at least it doesn't do anything to make the race more unfair.

You could see cycling as a team sports instead of an individual sports where some individuals get more support than others.

Besides, it's within the rules to gather great support riders around you and attract sponsors to pay for that. That is a quality as well. Cycling is so much more than who has the highest Vo2 max. That makes it attractive.

the fact that it's between the rules doesn't mean it's "ideal"
If you're a suporter of the "team" concept it means one must recalibrate the mechanism of merits-sharing too. General classification should be about teams and not GC riders (taking the major share) then, otherwise some individuals get "collective" advantages not totally related to their individual performances

in the end there's nothing wrong with TTT if cycling put a "salary cap" or something like that.
I see no merit in loading up your team with world class riders,and certainly not worthy to be celebrated by a TTT

 

[janraaskalt]

Re: Re:

in the end there's nothing wrong with TTT if cycling put a "salary cap" or something like that.
I see no merit in loading up your team with world class riders,and certainly not worthy to be celebrated by a TTT

So, basically any team sports that doesn't have a salary cap has no merit.

 

[46&twoWheels]

Re: Re:

in the end there's nothing wrong with TTT if cycling put a "salary cap" or something like that.
I see no merit in loading up your team with world class riders,and certainly not worthy to be celebrated by a TTT

So, basically any team sports that doesn't have a salary cap has no merit.

nope, you inferred something I didn't say. I suggested adjustments to the way we value GC, the way we value the TTT and on the other extreme a salary cap if the two firts options don't work.

You can allow SKY to be "unfair" on the market but you should allow SKY to be unfair in the race only "within the limits" of decency and fair competitiveness

 

[tomorrow]

BORA could do great here with their classic team. Question is. Has Majka GS goals or is he here ju for stage or dot jarsey hunting.
If he has I think BORA will be top 5 tommorow and within 40 seconds to Sky.

Exactly, they surprised in TdS and here, they have even better squad for TTT. Maybe besides Bodnar they don't have world class timetrialist, but in TTT Sagans repeated monster pulls, are invaluable. That's why teams, where Sagan is tend to surprise in TTT. E.g. they nearly always surprise in WC.
Burghardt, Oss and others will also do their fair share of work. And the one extra member they can loose on track might also be benefitial help them.

 

[SKSemtex]

Re: Re:

Im taking a TTT any day over a sprint stage. Unfair, yes, maybe, but at least its pretty interesting and entertaining viewing IMO.

Just give me that freaking, boring as hell sprint I don't even watch, cause at least it doesn't do anything to make the race more unfair.

The same here. TTT over 15 km should have no place in GT. Or the gain should be divided by number of persons in the team. Team budget has here too big impact on individual GC result.

 

[Salvarani]

Hoping that every team except one does great

 

[janraaskalt]

Re: Re:

nope, you inferred something I didn't say. I suggested adjustments to the way we value GC, the way we value the TTT and on the other extreme a salary cap if the two firts options don't work.

You can allow SKY to be "unfair" on the market but you should allow SKY to be unfair in the race only "within the limits" of decency and fair competitiveness

Why does it have to be your 1 dimensional view on team sports? It's a team sports where the best individual of a team takes the win for the team. And yes, gets the spotlight. Besides, even without a TTT even a great rider needs a team to support him. And if you primarily merit teams classifications then the weakest link in a team could win, thanks to the performance of exceptional riders in his team, which gives him an unfair advantage. I got zero talent for sports, that is also unfair if you want.

I don't like team time trials very much, but the "unfair" argument much less.

 

[Pricey_sky]

Could be very close between BMC and Sky, even with no Dennis I think BMC should shade it.

 

[Cinemaniak]

What do people think of teams like AG2R (Bardet) and Team LottoNL-Jumbo (Roglic, Kruiswijk).
AG2R seems to have brought some decent time trialists in Latour, Vuillermoz, Frank and Gallopin. But it's hard to rate the rest of their team, other than they are strong individual riders, but not so much known for performing in the TT's.
Team LottoJumbo have some big engines too.
Roglic, Kruijswijk, Gesink and Martens form a solid group of guys with experience and TT-ability, but the younger guys are far less known in this discipline. Tolhoek strikes me as the weakest link. Roosen is a big guy, with a decent acceleration, plus Jansen & Groenewegen.

 

[tobydawq]

I don't think anybody will be near Sky. Their TTT in Dauphiné was some of the best I have ever seen and even though their opponents will be stronger, I don't see them close the gap.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Re:

I think having a 100 km TTT could be nice, but would obviously have a way too big effect to GC. Maybe let it count as it is to team competition, but divide times by 5 or something for GC.

I remember when the 100 k TTT, was one of the most prestigious events at the olympics.

Those were 4 man teams, so doing it with 8 shouldn't be a problem.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

I don't think anybody will be near Sky. Their TTT in Dauphiné was some of the best I have ever seen and even though their opponents will be stronger, I don't see them close the gap.

This TTT is also a lot more hilly, which should favour Sky. They also start very early, and I don't know if the weather is gonna change. Gaps might be off the charts.

 

[tobydawq]

Re:

What do people think of teams like AG2R (Bardet) and Team LottoNL-Jumbo (Roglic, Kruiswijk).
AG2R seems to have brought some decent time trialists in Latour, Vuillermoz, Frank and Gallopin. But it's hard to rate the rest of their team, other than they are strong individual riders, but not so much known for performing in the TT's.
Team LottoJumbo have some big engines too.
Roglic, Kruijswijk, Gesink and Martens form a solid group of guys with experience and TT-ability, but the younger guys are far less known in this discipline. Tolhoek strikes me as the weakest link. Roosen is a big guy, with a decent acceleration, plus Jansen & Groenewegen.

Dillier was part of BMC's team the two times they were world champions. I think that speaks for itself regarding his TTT capabilities. Unfortunately, he crashed yesterday, so he is a bit of an unknown. Naesen should also be a big asset in this discipline. Latour rode an other-worldly ITT in the French Championships and Gallopin and Frank are solid, so I think AG2R will do very well.

LottoNL-Jumbo look weaker but in Roglic they have one of the very best riders for this discipline in the peloton, and with three leadouter and a sprinter, they shouldn't be too bad.