TdF Sports Betting

[ingsve]

Haha my nickname refers to a norwegian reporter who has a close relationship with Thor who always before every sprint stage says he spoke to thor and that he apparantly is "Feeling very strong today". But i dont feel obliged to bet for him, even if he at 7.00 is a very good shot. Because you know he is feeling very strong at the moment!

Is that Dag Otto Lauritzen?

 

[Polka Dot Punter]

What would also be nice is any comments by riders who have targeted a stage or have some sort of affiliation to the finishing town (like Manuel Belletti in the Giro). I know the stage LLS won last year he targeted prior, as Liggett mentioned while the break was heading to the finish. If we can find this kind of information out it can be quite lucrative.

As for KOTM, Tony Martin @ 200 is a nice outside bet. He's won this competition in some other races and with HTC without a real GC contender the mountain jersey might be a decent objective for the team when they aren't work for Cav.

I also think Cadel Evans @ 80 is a strong bet. Think Ricco in 08 and Pellizotti in 09. Strong Giro riders often come to the tour and focus on stages and KOM instead of the overall. Also, BMC has a bad team for focusing on yellow and Cadel hasn't got what it takes to seriously challenge, so he'd be better off going down the Pellizotti path. May be a bit too stubborn for that though.

Have some other ideas but I haven't acted on them yet so will keep them quiet for the moment.

 

[The Hitch]

What would also be nice is any comments by riders who have targeted a stage or have some sort of affiliation to the finishing town (like Manuel Belletti in the Giro). I know the stage LLS won last year he targeted prior, as Liggett mentioned while the break was heading to the finish. If we can find this kind of information out it can be quite lucrative.

As for KOTM, Tony Martin @ 200 is a nice outside bet. He's won this competition in some other races and with HTC without a real GC contender the mountain jersey might be a decent objective for the team when they aren't work for Cav.

I also think Cadel Evans @ 80 is a strong bet. Think Ricco in 08 and Pellizotti in 09. Strong Giro riders often come to the tour and focus on stages and KOM instead of the overall. Also, BMC has a bad team for focusing on yellow and Cadel hasn't got what it takes to seriously challenge, so he'd be better off going down the Pellizotti path. May be a bit too stubborn for that though.

Have some other ideas but I haven't acted on them yet so will keep them quiet for the moment.

very good points.

 

[workingclasshero]

As for KOTM, Tony Martin @ 200 is a nice outside bet.

200?? unibet will only give me 25
and evans 35

 

[gingerwallaceafro]

Szmyd for Polka Dots, Cav for Green.

Last year was only between Thor & Cav, now there will be others hoovering up the points - Farrar, Thor, Cav, Boss Hog, Sagan etc. Cav will have more victories and more points = Cav for Green.

 

[nvpacchi]

Szmyd for Polka Dots, Cav for Green.

Last year was only between Thor & Cav, now there will be others hoovering up the points - Farrar, Thor, Cav, Boss Hog, Sagan etc. Cav will have more victories and more points = Cav for Green.

Farrar was there last year, and Sagan is not racing. Still similar to last year's sprint crew. Hushovd seems a good pick

 

[ingsve]

Unibet is a bit mischievous. You can bet on whether Cavendish gets declassified in at least one stage of the Tour. Odds are 5.25 that he will.

 

[larryduff]

Have had a look at some of early betting markets and couple of standouts
- Roche can be got as high as 33/1 to get a top ten placing. He finished 23rd last year which was excellent performance obviously. He is capable of improving on this though as he had to ride for Nocentini when he was in yellow and wont have to make sacrifice this year. He has also known he was part of tour squad far longer and is a year older
- F Schleck is 16/1 in betting without Contador. He looks stronger this year and probably coming into peak form. His timetrialing appears to have improved based on Tour De Suisse performance where he put in a good performance against the clock.

 

[ingsve]

Have had a look at some of early betting markets and couple of standouts
- Roche can be got as high as 33/1 to get a top ten placing. He finished 23rd last year which was excellent performance obviously. He is capable of improving on this though as he had to ride for Nocentini when he was in yellow and wont have to make sacrifice this year. He has also known he was part of tour squad far longer and is a year older

I would be hard pressed to go for such an outsider even for a top 10. There are so many other riders that are clear top 10 candidates that I would choose before Roche.

 

[mowie133]

Farrar was there last year, and Sagan is not racing. Still similar to last year's sprint crew. Hushovd seems a good pick

think hushovd might be a bit out of form...i hope as i'm going to back cav i can see farrar beating Hushovd a fear bit,it's just if cav goes for those the small sprints threw the stage..an if mick rogers is in with a chance of a top 10 cav might work for him

 

[ThorFolerSegSterkIDagDu]

Is that Dag Otto Lauritzen?

Yes it is!

 

[ingsve]

Yes it is!

Hehe, I could almost hear his grimstad dialect through your screenname.

 

[flyor64]

Hehe, I could almost hear his grimstad dialect through your screenname.

Did they air his show På Hjul med Dag Otto in Sweden?

It was pretty fun actually. Have to say the Cippo episode was the best...they all waxed their legs, got spray on tans (with tape to be as cycling authentic as possible), put on a bunch of gold chains, and rode and walked around in towns in Italy clad in all-white Assos kit...

This included their non-cycling daily guests for that show, Odd-Bjørn Hjelmeset was one of them. Good on 'em for going all in for the show

 

[ingsve]

Did they air his show På Hjul med Dag Otto in Sweden?

It was pretty fun actually. Have to say the Cippo episode was the best...they all waxed their legs, got spray on tans (with tape to be as cycling authentic as possible), put on a bunch of gold chains, and rode and walked around in towns in Italy clad in all-white Assos kit...

This included their non-cycling daily guests for that show, Odd-Bjørn Hjelmeset was one of them. Good on 'em for going all in for the show

Nope, haven't seen that one.

 

[MADRAZO]

Unibet is a bit mischievous. You can bet on whether Cavendish gets declassified in at least one stage of the Tour. Odds are 5.25 that he will.

You mean Bet24 is, Unibet is like so many bookies sadly does in cycling just copying.. Not a bad bet though...

 

[ingsve]

You mean Bet24 is, Unibet is like so many bookies sadly does in cycling just copying.. Not a bad bet though...

I didn't know that. I only have money at unibet.

 

[M Sport]

Hello,

I am looking to make som serious money betting on Tour results this summer, and i am seeking your advice as to what bets would be good to place!

I'm no expert but I put $40 in an online betting account two years ago and I only bet on Cycling, F1, League and AFL. I have grown it to $430 today so at least I don't lose money.

I wouldn't normally bet on Polka dot Jersey but this year I will put some on Contador, not much though. Farrar is worth a punt for the points jersey. All my winnings will come from head to head battles though, pick stage head to heads wisely and you can get good returns.

I wouldn't bother putting a bet on the overall winner other than for the fact you can say you backed a winner.

 

[Punter]

I agree the Head to Heads are the way to go.

I found this bet with a couple of SA bookmakers and make it my "Bet of the Tour"

Green Jersey Match Ups (entire race)

Giolek 1/1 Petacchi 7/10

I reckon Ciolek is an absolute blinder at 1/1 - what am I missing?

 

[Polka Dot Punter]

Anyone find anything yet about riders who might be targeting a particular stage to win? There's always a few times where a rider will target a goal and either achieve it or go very close, so there's a good chance there's profit to be made in identifying these riders.

For today, I think Spartacus is value @ 120. I remember a stage w/ crosswinds in 07 that Hunter won when Cancellara almost got there but ran 3rd behind Hunter and I think Quinziato. Was also in the lead group last year in the cross winds stage that Cav won easily.

 

[The Barb]

For today, I think Spartacus is value @ 120. I remember a stage w/ crosswinds in 07 that Hunter won when Cancellara almost got there but ran 3rd behind Hunter and I think Quinziato. Was also in the lead group last year in the cross winds stage that Cav won easily.

Agree that 120 is value, though from what I can gather from weather websites, crosswinds will not be a huge factor.

I've backed Farrar at $6. The Giro and yesterday's prologue suggest he's in the best form of his life and I'm not sure that Cavendish is.

Having said that ... unless my memory fails me, Cavendish won every bunch sprint he contested in last year's Tour (excluding the dubious relegation) so he could just go and make them all look silly again.