Tdf Sprinters 2019

[jaylew]

Time to get the TdF threads going. Let's talk about the sprint game.

In the poll, select ALL the riders you think will get a stage win. At this point I think Bol and a few other fast guys have a better chance of winning a stage than Cav, but out of respect for his many Tour stage victories, he deserves a spot in the poll.

Who do you think will win the most stages? I have to go with with Groenewegen to have the most wins but I could also see the Quickstep train getting on a roll and delivering Viviani perfectly a few times.

With Dumo out, will Bling (or anyone else) even challenge Sagan for Green?

Random sprinter thought: I wonder if Coquard thought after the years he had in 15-16 and going podium in 4 Tdf stages, that he would miss the next 3 Tours and it not be injury-related?

 

[jmdirt]

As always, I hope that breaks make it to the line before the the trains!

I would like to see Cav grab another win, but his form just doesn't seem to be coming back...Good luck though!

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Random sprinter thought: I wonder if Coquard thought after the years he had in 15-16 and going podium in 4 Tdf stages, that he would miss the next 3 Tours and it not be injury-related?

Lol no. But the fact is he rarely does much in the WT races he does get to ride. He’s the most extreme case of French sprinter disease, a guy who wins regularly but almost entirely by bullying non specialists in Coupe de France races. If he was regularly winning against high level opposition, his team would be invited to the Tour.

His most recent WT stage race, Paris Nice, sums it up. Groenewegen, Bennett, Jakobsen and Ewan were in the field and consequently his best stage placing was fifth. Demare has found ways to sometimes win against guys who just have a better top speed. Coquard hasn’t.

 

[jaylew]

Random sprinter thought: I wonder if Coquard thought after the years he had in 15-16 and going podium in 4 Tdf stages, that he would miss the next 3 Tours and it not be injury-related?

Lol no. But the fact is he rarely does much in the WT races he does get to ride. He’s the most extreme case of French sprinter disease, a guy who wins regularly but almost entirely by bullying non specialists in Coupe de France races. If he was regularly winning against high level opposition, his team would be invited to the Tour.

His most recent WT stage race, Paris Nice, sums it up. Groenewegen, Bennett, Jakobsen and Ewan were in the field and consequently his best stage placing was fifth. Demare has found ways to sometimes win against guys who just have a better top speed. Coquard hasn’t.

Agreed, but it's crazy to think that he's beaten all the top guys in Tour stages, only he's wound up 2nd or 3rd. He even finished 2nd to Greipel on the final stage on Champs-Élysées beating Cav, Sagan, Démare, Kristoff, Degenkolb, and Matthews and the following year he finished 2nd to Kittel on a stage, beating Groenewegen, Sagan, Kristoff and Cav.

He always struck me as a guy with little ambition. He's had chances to sign with WT teams in the past but always chose a smaller French outfit. If I remember right, he was fairly close to joining Quickstep a few years back but decided against it. I'm close to 100% certain he'd have WT wins if he had made a different choice then as he's never had close to the train he would have had at QS and his weak teams usually work against him in the WT races. In any case, he doesn't seem to be as fast as he used to be anyway.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Yes, France has three good sprinters - Démare, Coquard and Bouhanni - but none of them will be in the Tour.

The purely flat stages will probably be won Viviani and Groenewegen. Sagan is always likely to win a stage with a small climb in the final. I added Kristoff as a fourth vote.

 

[hammerthaim]

Laporte is France's second best sprinter with Demare first.

 

[Popchu]

I only had a quick glance at the TdF parcours, but am I correct that there are not that many chances for the sprinters? Of course the likes of Sagan, Matthews and even Ewan can survive in some of the hillier stages, but what about a pure sprinter such as Groenewegen?

 

[Dazed and Confused]

I see Ewan picking up the most wins.
A nice strong field of sprinters btw.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Re:

I only had a quick glance at the TdF parcours, but am I correct that there are not that many chances for the sprinters? Of course the likes of Sagan, Matthews and even Ewan can survive in some of the hillier stages, but what about a pure sprinter such as Groenewegen?

I would say the pure sprinters have seven chances: stage 1, 4, 7, 10, 11, 16 and 21. Fortunately it's not like twenty years ago when there were seven bunch sprints before the first mountain came in sight.

 

[Cinemaniak]

Re:

I only had a quick glance at the TdF parcours, but am I correct that there are not that many chances for the sprinters? Of course the likes of Sagan, Matthews and even Ewan can survive in some of the hillier stages, but what about a pure sprinter such as Groenewegen?

Groenewegen and Viviani aren't that bad on the hills. I can see them surviving 2 or 3 climbs with a maximum of 4-6% and +10km to recover a bit. Somehow people get the idea that guys like Dylan, Elia and Ewan get dropped when they are facing a cat. 4 or 3 climb, but that only happens in the early beginning of the season (P-N. T-A). I think they have about 6 or 7 chances to win here.

 

[The Hegelian]

With Kittel and Cav a long way from their best and Gaviria out, the field is missing some quality. Last year was probably the best sprint field I've ever seen. I think only Ewan was missing.

 

[the chicken from T]

I'm missing Iván García Cortina!

 

[RedheadDane]

Re:

With Kittel and Cav a long way from their best and Gaviria out, the field is missing some quality. Last year was probably the best sprint field I've ever seen. I think only Ewan was missing.

He's so long away from his best, he's kind of retired. Or at least taking a leave of absence.

And... there are actually people who believe in Cavendish? I consider myself fairly optimistic on the behalf of others, but... eh... I'd be surprised.

 

[fauniera]

Re: Re:

I would say the pure sprinters have seven chances: stage 1, 4, 7, 10, 11, 16 and 21. Fortunately it's not like twenty years ago when there were seven bunch sprints before the first mountain came in sight.

Not so sure.

1 - uphill finish, the last 700 meters have an average gradient of almost 4% plus there are a few hills before that. Shouldn't Jumbo ride for van Aert here instead of Groenewegen?

4 - Has Cotê Maron, with a middle section of 2,1 km at 6,2% average with less than 15 km to go. Some teams (Bora?) will try to drop the pure sprinters there, and that could work.

10 - very lumpy, could be a sprint but a breakaway is not unlikely.

Agree with 7, 11, 16 and 21 (although both 11 and 16 have some hills before the finish).

source

 

[Anderis]

The list of good sprinters not present is longer than I expected.

No Demare, no Gaviria, no Kittel, no Degenkolb and of course no Jakobsen, Ackermann and Bennett. That's almost as strong list of names as those who will be there.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Re: Re:

1 - uphill finish, the last 700 meters have an average gradient of almost 4% plus there are a few hills before that. Shouldn't Jumbo ride for van Aert here instead of Groenewegen?

source

That's the profile of the alternative proposed by Lasterketa Burua with Bruine Put in the finale, not the actual finish, which does rise in the final kilometer but flattens out in the last 200 or so meters. Should suit Groenewegen and Viviani just fine.
Côte de Maron is not much harder than the final uncategorized climb in last year's stage to Praia a Mare at the Giro, and both climbs ended 15 km out. Mareczko made the top ten in that stage, so it will be difficult for Bora to get rid of the sprinters.

 

[fauniera]

Oh thanks. My mistake. It's too hot.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Re:

Laporte is France's second best sprinter with Demare first.

Laporte is the best rider on the planet. Therefore he is better than Démare.

 

[RedheadDane]

Re: Re:

Laporte is France's second best sprinter with Demare first.

Laporte is the best rider on the planet. Therefore he is better than Démare.

Laporte transcends the planet.

 

[Velolover2]

There are some sprinter-friendly stages that will eliminate Groenewegen but that's about it.

Viviani, Demare, Kristoff and Ewan can survive semi-hilly stages. And Matthews, Sagan, Trentin and Colbrelli can survive real hilly stages.

Cavendish and Griepel.. let's not be too romantic about 2012.

 

[RedheadDane]

I can say with utmost certainly that Cavendish isn't going to win any stages.
He ain't going.

 

[MrTea1976]

Indeed. Sad, but unsurprising.

 

[del1962]

I am surprised Viviani has picked up a lot more votes than Ewan

 

[tobydawq]

How hard would it be to show amount of voters rather than amount of votes in a poll where we can pick more than one answer?

 

[Cinemaniak]

Re:

I am surprised Viviani has picked up a lot more votes than Ewan

I think it has more to do with Ewan's team than his sprinting. I think he's a bit faster than Viviani and able to beat Groenewegen on certain occasions. But his team is not that great in delivering a sprinter. DQS and Jumbo are well oiled machines in preparing sprints.