TdF Stage 12 - Fri 16th - Bourg-de-Péage - Mende 210.5km

[Straßenrennen]

That's what he dreamt this night. He will lose a minute today

If he doesnt go into the last climb with 2-3minutes advantage losing a minute would be a good result judging on previous climbs this tour.

 

[auscyclefan94]

If he wasn't broken, I'd say this finish looked tailor made for Cuddles. The best two in the race (besides Cuddles) are probably Cunego and Ryder Hesjedal.

I think Cadel actually might have a crack.

Yes it is a shame Cadel is injured as it would of been CUDDLES TIME if he was not injured.

I don't think so either, but he has to attack anyway. What I wonder is does AC finally throw down a counter-attack or does he continue to hold his fire? Minimal gains are to be had tomorrow unless one of them has a spectacularly bad day (or bad luck), but AC loves this climb.

AC will just hold Andy's wheel. I am excited about tonight's stage. I think the finish will be a ripper!

 

[sublimit]

I'm thinking Peter Sagan will crush everyone like tiny tiny people being crushed by a giant Slovakian robot, rawr!!

Vino will ride to the rescue and slay the giant Slovakian robot..

 

[santacruz]

Vino vino vino vino vino!!!!!

 

[Mellow Velo]

Joaquim Rodriguez is getting picked by a lot of folks and I am one of those folks, too.
He's the other rider able to stick with Contador, Schleck and possibly Gesink. The rest will lose time.
He is the one far enough back on the GC and Spanish, (ex-Caisse, Contador's other team) to be given a little rope.
That's out of the leader's group, of course.

The ASO have missed a trick, by not including the normal climb that proceeds the Mende wall.
I therefore think that the break may well stick.

 

[ulrikmm]

I'm thinking Peter Sagan will crush everyone like tiny tiny people being crushed by a giant Slovakian robot, rawr!!

I dont think Sagan rides this years TdF...

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Contador/A.Schleck and like Mellow Velo said Rodriguez might hand with them. He did the same on such type of climbs before, even almost dropping Contador in Pais Vasco 08.
Sanchez might have some trouble, often he has a little bit of problems getting into his rythm on short climbs. In Pais Vasco he was dropped early, but recuperated and came back (and attacked) in the end. He also had the same problem in the Vuelta last year.
Since this climb is only 3km long, he can't have that problem now

 

[Shardi]

Gesink will surely try an attack. So will Schleck. Contador marking Schleck. Menchov/Leipheimer desperately trying to hold wheels when Schleck starts moving.
The outside shot is Vino and Rodriguez. Neither are major GC threats and both are looking for a stage win.
The last and quite possibly most reckless prediction is the SHACK-ATTACK with Lancey/Klödi going dual multiple attacks to set the stage for Levi to explode away, leaving the others in the dust..






<In the previous two lines.... I was joking>

 

[ericthesportsman6]

Gesink will surely try an attack. So will Schleck. Contador marking Schleck. Menchov/Leipheimer desperately trying to hold wheels when Schleck starts moving.
The outside shot is Vino and Rodriguez. Neither are major GC threats and both are looking for a stage win.
The last and quite possibly most reckless prediction is the SHACK-ATTACK with Lancey/Klödi going dual multiple attacks to set the stage for Levi to explode away, leaving the others in the dust..






<In the previous two lines.... I was joking>

Doubt it. (about Gesink) If he goes, he'll drop his team's leader, Menchov, who's much weaker on the sharper climbs.

 

[Kwibus]

Wrong. This climb is 3k, that's long enough for Gesink to find his rhythm. It's twice as long as the Mur de Huy, where he's consistently been one of the strongest. And in the much shorter finishing climbs of the Tirreno he was also constantly up there. He always underestimates his own explosiveness. Anything super steep is good for Gesink.

I expect him to finish top5, but I don't expect him to win. I sure hope he wins tho. Man I will be cheering

 

[Connor Pass]

Another vote for Rodriguez (Can anyone tell me is his name Joaquin or Joaquim?!)

This looks perfect for him and he's far enough down for AC/AS to give him a bit of leeway. Even if they do follow his accelerations he should be able to beat them in the sprint.

I was thinking of possibly Kolobnev too - there's also a good chance of a breakaway - maybe someone like Capecchi or Spilak.

It will be interesting to see if anyone decides to chase the day's break. Surely Charteau and Pineau will be involved in it.

 

[theyoungest]

Contador/A.Schleck and like Mellow Velo said Rodriguez might hand with them. He did the same on such type of climbs before, even almost dropping Contador in Pais Vasco 08.
Sanchez might have some trouble, often he has a little bit of problems getting into his rythm on short climbs. In Pais Vasco he was dropped early, but recuperated and came back (and attacked) in the end. He also had the same problem in the Vuelta last year.
Since this climb is only 3km long, he can't have that problem now

The climb in Pais Vasco wasn't really comparable, much longer. As were the Vuelta climbs. The very same final climb as today was included in Paris-Nice, and there Sanchez came in third, in the same time as Valverde and before Rodriguez. And he did what he always does: drop back a little, and then pass almost everyone who passed him at first. Actually he's my top favourite for today, even more so because there's 1.5 km of flat at the end for him to return on and outsprint his rivals.

 

[Jamsque]

No love for the Hes-Jay, huh? Second in Amstel and 9th in Fleche not good enough for ya?

 

[Kwibus]

Doubt it. (about Gesink) If he goes, he'll drop his team's leader, Menchov, who's much weaker on the sharper climbs.

They are still both free to do whatever they want, but they do want to ride for eachother. Gesink is allowed to attack tho.

Also it's likely that a breakaway holds Pineau, a Caisse rider and a Radioshack rider. Since last 2 teams are fighting for the teamclassification.

 

[theyoungest]

No love for the Hes-Jay, huh? Second in Amstel and 9th in Fleche not good enough for ya?

He doesn't really seem the freshest of the bunch right now.

 

[Jamsque]

He doesn't really seem the freshest of the bunch right now.

There have been two relatively easy stages for the GC guys (which he sorta-kinda is) in a row now, I think he ought to have something in the tank. I'm probably being over-optimistic though.

 

[Tom T.]

I think AC will have a go to try and take back 10-20 seconds. I think he wants to make a little statement to Andy, who seems a little cocky.

 

[Francois the Postman]

Doubt it. (about Gesink) If he goes, he'll drop his team's leader, Menchov, who's much weaker on the sharper climbs.

Chances are that there will be attacks even if Gesink doesn't initiate them. I fully expect Menchov to be struggling with one of those. And then it will be interesting to see what Gesink does.

He is of course still dead keen to bag that first TdF stage win, maybe even keener on that than a decent GC spot. If he has a chance, I can't see him stick with Menchov, who is kinda used to survive without any Rabo colours around him on the last climb anyway.

There are so many pluses to let Gesink go under the right circumstances, and so few drawbacks, "dropping Menchov" won't be too much of an issue. If the others don't settle the dilemma to begin with.

Don't think it will be him though, not his ideal finish. BTW, how is he doing with that bone fracture of his? Wish he would heroically stop banging on about it.

But count me in with the Rodriguez mob.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

No love for the Hes-Jay, huh? Second in Amstel and 9th in Fleche not good enough for ya?

Nope, completely different level. Sorry. Not a chance.

 

[Roland Rat]

I think AC will have a go to try and take back 10-20 seconds. I think he wants to make a little statement to Andy, who seems a little cocky.

I'm enjoying watching cocky Andy waste energy on things like getting bottles and riding in the wind. Hopefully it'll bite him on the queen stage.

 

[theyoungest]

I'm enjoying watching cocky Andy waste energy on things like getting bottles and riding in the wind. Hopefully it'll bite him on the queen stage.

Look, it worked! Get some bottles, et voilà, your image is saved!

 

[ttrider]

Ive got a very boring prediction! im afraid i cant see the status quo changing and so i see contador + andy making it to the finish again together, same as 9 samu close but no cigar and yes nturally rodrguez and gesink will go well, but will they really crest the summit with the big 2 of shleck and conti?!?! no chance

Contador i think will be stronger than shleck today and it is basically his climb but realistically the risk reward equation is not great so i believe he will wait till bonascre which suits him even better, im convinced he ll put shleck in a world of pain and take the yellow there, hes riding a very clever tour

 

[Jamsque]

I didn't realise Contador had one twice on this climb already. Maybe he'll have a go after all.

 

[Mellow Velo]

No love for the Hes-Jay, huh? Second in Amstel and 9th in Fleche not good enough for ya?

His job description has changed since, yesterday. He'll now have to be a Garmin train engine, since Columbia will not be leading out Farrar for 150kms anymore!

Peloton still together on the first climb.........except for Armstrong.
No, no........not off the front.........out the back already!

 

[python]

i thought you watched pn this year ?

must be short memory ?