TDF Stage 14: Saint-Gaudens - Plateau de Beille 168km

[Waterloo Sunrise]

or

C) expand on option A) and team up with Movistar to put the hurt on Cav and try to get him knocked out due to the time limit

No way you can push Cav out without taking 20% of the race with him, so pretty pointless, not to mention the entirely threadbare lotto team.

 

[Mellow Velo]

The weather for earlier in the week for this stage, was dicey, but looks to be holding up.
Wind, strong up the derriere means no excuse for not attacking on the "mountain that makes champions."

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

But stupidly, because the Tour biases things with more than double the points for sprints than for mountain stages, he would only get penalised an intermediate sprints' worth of points, because the penalty is to be docked the equivalent of a stage win in the stage in question.

I love this rewriting of history where people try to take the points jersey at absolute face value and pretend it is not a sprinters jersey.

The last non sprinter to win was 1989, and I'm only saying that as Kelly is so much more than a sprinter. (We all know what Ja Ja went on to become, but also what he started out as).

There is already a competition for consistancy, with a particularly prestigious jersey colour.

Personally, I think there should be an equal number of points for all stage finishes, split between the points and mountain classifications. But I can't get very upset about this years arrangement, even if it upsets the professional Cav haters.

 

[mr. tibbs]

Cheers for the thread, Hitch. Please also do l'Alpe when the time comes. (Even if contender X already has XX minutes and the race is well over.)

 

[Mambo95]

Contador- fear
Armstrong- surprise
Pantani- an almost fanatical devotion to the Pope

Nice red uniforms - Evans or Taaramae for tomorrow then.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I love this rewriting of history where people try to take the points jersey at absolute face value and pretend it is not a sprinters jersey.

The last non sprinter to win was 1989, and I'm only saying that as Kelly is so much more than a sprinter. (We all know what Ja Ja went on to become, but also what he started out as).

There is already a competition for consistancy, with a particularly prestigious jersey colour.

Personally, I think there should be an equal number of points for all stage finishes, split between the points and mountain classifications. But I can't get very upset about this years arrangement, even if it upsets the professional Cav haters.

So basically, I'm in agreement for you, same as the Giro and Vuelta.

The points system was already biased in favour of sprinters before - but now they've tightened the screws and made it even more so, so that a mountain stage (even a not especially GC-threatening one like today) can give the same amount of points as the intermediate sprint. Surely if the stage win is less important to the points classification the intermediate should tone down its points correspondingly?

Otherwise it gets to be as ludicrous as the intermediate sprints in the Tour de Ski, where so much time bonus is available that people just go and collect those bonuses then let somebody else go and grab the win in the final km or so and still end up ahead of them.

The green jersey is the points jersey. The points system is biased in favour of sprinters, and that's why it's a sprinters' jersey. Even in the Giro and Vuelta it has been biased in favour of sprinters until the last couple of years of the Giro going ballistic with MTFs. The last 3 Vuelta points jersey winners have been van Avermaet, Greipel and Cavendish, and that's with a system that gives all stages equal prominence (and also under that exact same system Cavendish would have won the green jersey last year).

 

[kurtinsc]

So basically, I'm in agreement for you, same as the Giro and Vuelta.

The points system was already biased in favour of sprinters before - but now they've tightened the screws and made it even more so, so that a mountain stage (even a not especially GC-threatening one like today) can give the same amount of points as the intermediate sprint. Surely if the stage win is less important to the points classification the intermediate should tone down its points correspondingly?

Otherwise it gets to be as ludicrous as the intermediate sprints in the Tour de Ski, where so much time bonus is available that people just go and collect those bonuses then let somebody else go and grab the win in the final km or so and still end up ahead of them.

The green jersey is the points jersey. The points system is biased in favour of sprinters, and that's why it's a sprinters' jersey. Even in the Giro and Vuelta it has been biased in favour of sprinters until the last couple of years of the Giro going ballistic with MTFs. The last 3 Vuelta points jersey winners have been van Avermaet, Greipel and Cavendish, and that's with a system that gives all stages equal prominence (and also under that exact same system Cavendish would have won the green jersey last year).

The thing is, I like what the intermediate sprint has done to how the tour has been raced this year. You now have HTC on a mountain stage chasing down breaks... then setting up a sprint prior to the climb. YOu have more action at the beginning of stages then normal. This is a positive thing.

If that makes it harder for Cav to lose the jersey... so what? The others need to beat him in more intermediate and final sprints.

 

[Cimber]

Contador's rivals smelled blood today, I think Evans, Basso and the Schlecks will want to knock him out of contention completely tomorrow and make sure he has no chance of recovering in the Alps.

+1

They will try to take him out of the race now while he is weak, cos they still fear that he will be his "own self" by the time they hit the alps. So the Schlecks and Basso will try to put the hammer down on Contador. Evans will probably be happy just to ride defensively, cos if the TT was tomorrow he would win the Tour. Status quo would be great for Evans.

 

[Liquigas]

Go Basso, climb at your pace without looking back and sooner or later you will drop all of them.

 

[TeoSheva]

Like Devestoller say, the stage of tomorrow is almost the same on the 14th stage of the 2004.

This one was the 2004's stage:

this one is the stage of tomorrow:

The way is exactly the same, the only difference is that in 2004 they started 37km before.
Armstrong won in front of Basso (Voecker was in yellow as well!), in 6h04'38", and so 33.1km/h of average speed.
The BUS arrived at 42'20". The 37km more that they did helped them, because the time limit was high enough! Tomorrow, if they go at the same speed, the time limit will be 30'33"! Will the bus manage to stay inside it??? I hardly doubt...

 

[Escarabajo]

Like Devestoller say, the stage of tomorrow is almost the same on the 14th stage of the 2004.

This one was the 2004's stage:

this one is the stage of tomorrow:

The way is exactly the same, the only difference is that in 2004 they started 37km before.
Armstrong won in front of Basso (Voecker was in yellow as well!), in 6h04'38", and so 33.1km/h of average speed.
The BUS arrived at 42'20". The 37km more that they did helped them, because the time limit was high enough! Tomorrow, if they go at the same speed, the time limit will be 30'33"! Will the bus manage to stay inside it??? I hardly doubt...

+1.

It punishes the sprinters a lot more than the GC conteneders.

 

[TimChristy]

How does Plateau de Beille compare with the Luz Ardiden climb? Should it be more selective with larger time gaps?

 

[TeoSheva]

How does Plateau de Beille compare with the Luz Ardiden climb? Should it be more selective with larger time gaps?

exactly _____

 

[Dedelou]

Pantani, Armstrong and Contador are the 3 greatest climbers of all time? I know you like your dramatic, film-vignette lead-ins to races, but that's hyperbole in the extreme.

don't take it at heart.. "off all times" for some only means the last decade or so. But I wouldn't put pass those three to someday make it to top twenty best climbers. Someday.

 

[Cimber]

How does Plateau de Beille compare with the Luz Ardiden climb? Should it be more selective with larger time gaps?

Luz is 13,3km with an average gradient of 7,4%, around 10% where its steepest. Beille is 15,8km long and average gradient is 7,9%, about 9% where its steepest. So on paper it should be slightly more slective, but the important thing is how the stage will be ridden and how hard they will ride on Beille. On Luz they didnt ride that hard cos it was the first mountain stage and all. They will probably ride it harde tomorrow. Especially since they have seen that Contodor has problems and the Schlecks will need to drop Evans. So I expect to see more fireworks 2morrow than on Luz.

 

[DenisMenchov]

So here we go last stage in the Pyrenees, and it could be the crucial one. It is going to get hard from intermediate sprint with Leopard wanting to isolate GC contenders because Andy and Frank will then have the advantage. I expect to see only Samu, TV, Leopard duet, AC, Basso, Evans, Cunego to fight hard not only for the stage, but for the overall because we all know that who cross Plateau first wins le Tour . I want Vanendert to show that Luz wasn t only one off, but that he is a true potential. Maybe Roche and Velits can attack early on and try to make some gap before finish, they don t stand a chance at wining anyway.

 

[maxmartin]

I hope old captain tomorrow can teach his former domestiques a lesson

 

[Libertine Seguros]

+1.

It punishes the sprinters a lot more than the GC conteneders.

Good!

It's retribution for them getting more chances to win than anybody else, and doing it less interestingly than anyone else.

 

[Bavarianrider]

How does Plateau de Beille compare with the Luz Ardiden climb? Should it be more selective with larger time gaps?

Surely, gaps are always huge on the Plateu de Beille.

 

[just some guy]

Hi folks

Big day tomorrow . Looking forward to it.

I have a feeling that Basso FTW but Evans surprises and Andy keeps and eye on Contador that means he loses the stage and tour.

Fränk I still think he is Lepo leader.

 

[Ramira]

Hi folks

Big day tomorrow . Looking forward to it.

I have a feeling that Basso FTW but Evans surprises and Andy keeps and eye on Contador that means he loses the stage and tour.

Fränk I still think he is Lepo leader.

Pretty sure neither Evans nor Basso will be better then Fränk, though my persona tip is going to be Andy. He usually gets better when the tour progresses and at his peak only Contador can take him. I think Leopard is going to use the fact that Fränk is ahead to force the others to cover him and get Andy to get away. Although if they cover Andy again Fränk might end up being the first of the contenders again.

I don't think Andy is afraid of Contador anymore, he's still worried about him taking time back but Leopard knows what they need now is to take time on Evans. From what I saw yesterday I just don't see Basso or Evans getting away from the Schlecks, they didn't really get closer to Fränk when going all out after losing Rolland and Andy easily bridged the gap when he needed to.

 

[jens_attacks]

if frank even has l'ospedale form which was one of the performances of the year,it will be extremely difficult to drop him.a robobasso can do it,a converbier can do it but are they here?that's the question.
still looking forward to basso shredding everyone off his wheel.i hope the attacks start straight from the base of the climb,it will be frank again.
voeckler will keep his jersey,french ugrumov will put a monster show again and maybe charteau too.gilbert to finish in the top 15?i hope so.
can't wait.


and thanks for the intro,hitch.

 

[davestoller]

Go Basso, climb at your pace without looking back and sooner or later you will drop all of them.

True that.

But from 2004, its like Basso needs someone to set a high rhythm to follow, like he did with Lance, but then struggles in the ITT on the Alp.

So if Andy attacks, I think Basso gets up to him and sets a high rate and then goes. I think Basso is not as explosive.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

I agree with the others that I can see the Schlecks, Evans and Basso trying to make sure tomorrow is at a quick pace, especially over the last two climbs, to try to finish Contador off (if possible) while they have the chance.

If Evans and Basso can finish with the Schlecks tomorrow (especially Andy) they could start to tilt the race into between them, as they both TT better than the Schlecks. I'm kind of hoping this happens, and Frank stays with them, as it will make the overall race tighter, and the curiosity up for how fast Andy climbs in the Alps, to attack them. Should be fun.

 

[TimChristy]

If Basso is gonna make a move I hope it's from at least 6km out. Also, hope we don't see another 7 man leader group pacing up the climb with attacks only in the final 2km.