TDF Stage 14: Saint-Gaudens - Plateau de Beille 168km

[Alpe d'Huez]

Agree Tim.

So if Andy attacks, I think Basso gets up to him and sets a high rate and then goes. I think Basso is not as explosive.

That would favor Ivan. He would ideally like to have a quick pace over the Core, and especially Agnes to wear others out, then try to burn them off on Beille.

Basso hasn't been able to jump on attacks since he was young. His attacks involve severe pressure on others for long stretches, getting them to crack. And he does it best on the biggest, hardest stages.

There's a thread on here about how out of form he was a month ago. Well, tomorrow we'll see if he really is a champion, or that form never came in. In some ways it's his perhaps last chance to win the Tour.

 

[Ramira]

If Evans and Basso can finish with the Schlecks tomorrow (especially Andy) they could start to tilt the race into between them, as they both TT better than the Schlecks. I'm kind of hoping this happens, and Frank stays with them, as it will make the overall race tighter, and the curiosity up for how fast Andy climbs in the Alps, to attack them. Should be fun.

Basso doesn't have a better TT then the Schlecks anymore. Also he's already around a minute behind on both, that's probably already more then he can take back in a TT nowadays. Not to mention he needs to take 2 minutes back on Evans at least to have a chance to beat him so finishing of the Schlecks at the cost of leaving Evans with him would pretty much gift the tour to Evans.

Then again I'm pretty certain the Schlecks are better climbers then either of them at this time so I doubt it will matter either way.

 

[patrick767]

I'm with many others predictions right now. Unless Schlecklet is really struggling tomorrow, the Schlecks will push hard. Evans, Basso, Contador, and possibly Samuel Sanchez will be the only ones who can hang with them. If Contador hasn't improved, they'll drop him. The question is whether or not they will drill the attack soon enough and keep it up long enough to gain more significant time than stage 12. The Schlecks also need to drop Evans due to his ITT skills and based on his performance so far that will be harder.

What the heck... I'll tap Andy Schleck for the stage win.

As for Voeckler, he had his miracle day on stage 12. This stage is harder and the above riders will push much harder if they can. Voeckler loses yellow.

 

[The Hitch]

Surely, gaps are always huge on the Plateu de Beille.

I thought the severity or length of the climb doesnt matter one bit

 

[frenchfry]

You can look at the gradient chart, and it shows many km back to back of nearly ten percent and tilting toward 9 %.

http://www.zanibike.net/altimetria/1874/Francia/salita_Plateau+de+Beille+-+Les+Cabannes.aspx

but mostly its because it always features after a ridiculous run in with numerous other climbs before. Leipheimer's quote was that he just got more and more empty and just imploded on it.
2004, almost exactly the same as this year
Km 42.5: Col des Ares, 4 km at 4.7%
Km 64: Col de Portet d'Aspet, 4.4 km at 9.8%Km 99.5: Col de Core, 14.2 km at 6%
Km 131: Col de Latrape, 5.6 km at 7.7%
Km 146: Col d'Agnes, 9.8 km at 8.2%
Km 155: Port de Lers, 3.8 km at 5.7%
Km 205.5: Plateau de Beille, 15.9 km at 7.8%
The time gaps are always immense. 2004:

1 Lance Armstrong (USA) US Postal p/b Berry Floor
2 Ivan Basso (Ita) Team CSC
4 Andreas Klöden (Ger) T-Mobile Team 1.27
6 Jan Ullrich (Ger) T-Mobile Team 2.42
10 Gilberto Simoni (Ita) Saeco 3.43
13 Thomas Voeckler (Fra) Brioches La Boulangère 4.42
16 Carlos Sastre (Spa) Team CSC 6.34
19 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Rabobank 6.39

This year:

I rode the Portet d'Aspet many years ago when cycle touring. It is relatively short, but STEEP. And that is only the beginning, it will be a tough day for all.

 

[psycholist]

Basso is a class rider and he can nullify attacks with consistent pace, his pedalling looks so good

 

[roundabout]

I thought the severity or length of the climb doesnt matter one bit

Well, it's not the Zoncolan yet the gaps are pretty comparable.

Problem for Basso is his team. Apart from Szmyd there are no riders capable of putting others under pressure for a sustained period of time.

Lotto will go nuts over the first climb but after that I fear it might be a quite race until 15 to go unless somebody shows weakness early.

 

[Ramira]

After thinking about it some more I think a lot will depend on how good Contador will feel tomorrow. Remember that the first 2 times the Schlecks attacked it was Contador who pulled them back. I think if he doesn't feel good enough to bring anyone back Evans and Basso will struggle to handle the Schleck 1-2 if he does feel good he might keep them under control which will really benefit Basso and his high steady pace and help Evans just hang on. Although even then I would tip one of the Schlecks to make a jump it will just be for a very small amount of time.

 

[Andre.J]

Who knows. It wouldn't surprise me if nothing happens tomorrow either. Maybe with 5 kilometres to go to the finish line the GC contenders might start attacking each other. We'll have to wait through 4 of 5 hours of friendly riding. I will record it, and fast forward. I hope not ...

Andre

 

[psycholist]

I am not sure team riding makes much difference over recent years, the final selection is growing.

 

[Midnightfright]

Levi to do a Pantani and attack from the off at such a furious pace he will blow all the GC riders to shreds.Knowing his attack is fruitless he does it anyway just for his love of attacking endeavor. Pushing on up the climbs with the crowd cheering his name, he will have to retire due to exhaustion but it will go down in tour folklore and whenever anyone in the future trys a courageous attack we will call it doing a Leipheimer

 

[The Hitch]

Well, it's not the Zoncolan yet the gaps are pretty comparable.

Put the Crostis in, then we talk

 

[musorowegudo]

Please let Alberto win this. That would be the perfect birthday gift for me.

AC should just quit the race. He has fallen more times than those who crashed and quit than humiliate himself at the hands of ASO - Andy Schleck Org, big mouthed and ASO - Amaury Sport Organisation, who hesitated shaking his hands! Sometimes the two ASOs are one!

He should either WIN or pack his bags and go before getting humiliatingly dropped more on his special areas - the climbs! Let him do justice to his fans because when he gets dropped, it's his fans who suffer more!

 

[therhodeo]

Levi to do a Pantani and attack from the off at such a furious pace he will blow all the GC riders to shreds.Knowing his attack is fruitless he does it anyway just for his love of attacking endeavor. Pushing on up the climbs with the crowd cheering his name, he will have to retire due to exhaustion but it will go down in tour folklore and whenever anyone in the future trys a courageous attack we will call it doing a Leipheimer

Levi reading this in the hotel tonight. "So I'm supposed to ride off with no one in front of me? Never really considered that"

 

[Ramira]

Let him do justice to his fans because when he gets dropped, it's his fans who suffer more!

So he should quit because his fans don't like it when he gets dropped? Come on if he wants to stay in the race he should stay in the race if he wants to quit he should quit but he has given his fans more then enough over the last years to be able to do whatever he damn well wants.

 

[Ramira]

Levi reading this in the hotel tonight. "So I'm supposed to ride off with no one in front of me? Never really considered that"

I think he's afraid if he does that he'll get lost, he won't know where to go without having a wheel to follow, before you know it he'll end up in Andorra!

 

[icefire]

Levi reading this in the hotel tonight. "So I'm supposed to ride off with no one in front of me? Never really considered that"

It might actually work if they stick a picture of a rider seen from the back in one of the motorbikes

 

[musorowegudo]

So he should quit because his fans don't like it when he gets dropped? Come on if he wants to stay in the race he should stay in the race if he wants to quit he should quit but he has given his fans more then enough over the last years to be able to do whatever he damn well wants.

Contrary to your wishes, he will kick the ASOs butts on the uphill finish!

 

[Ramira]

Contrary to your wishes, he will kick the ASOs butts on the uphill finish!

Ehm so first you want him to withdraw and now you think he'll win tomorrows stage? How about you become consistent in your beliefs and then I'll have a mature discussion with you.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Ehm so first you want him to withdraw and now you think he'll win tomorrows stage? How about you become consistent in your beliefs and then I'll have a mature discussion with you.

Well, he said he should go home if he is getting dropped on the climbs. He didn't say he thought he would get dropped.

 

[Ramira]

Well, he said he should go home if he is getting dropped on the climbs. He didn't say he thought he would get dropped.

AC should just quit the race.

Hmmm, yes he did. But this whole discussion is pointless and about semantics so how about we call it there's nothing to gain from this so I'm leaving it here.

 

[psycholist]

Has anyone here ever ridden up a climb in a race situation on max!!

 

[Winterfold]

Who knows. It wouldn't surprise me if nothing happens tomorrow

Andre

This.

I cant work out if they are racing like *** and saving it all for the Galibier/Alpe stage or they are out of form or

Right now I think podium will be some combination of schleck the elder, cuddles and basso.

But still a lot of racing to come - so much pressure they cannot really be criticised for racing conservatively

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Levi to do a Pantani and attack from the off at such a furious pace he will blow all the GC riders to shreds...

Strangely enough, if he attacked "Pantani style" on the Col de la Core, or even the Latrape or Agnes, it would be his one and only chance to do something. The odds are that he'd lose 15 minutes by the finish, but there's a very slim chance he'd get far enough out, and the others would fail to take him seriously and fight amongst each other to chase that he could win. A miracle, sure. But it would be great to watch.

But the odds are even lower that he'd attempt any such attack. I'd say about zero. He'd rather just follow everyone and try to keep up and diminish his losses, losing by slow rot. Going out not with a bang, but a whimper.

 

[LaFlorecita]

OK, tomorrow I'm going to paint my nails with China Glaze lighthouse, and I'm going to scream like mad in front of the TV, don't care if my family members are there for my birthday, I'll make sure I'll yell Alberto up those climbs.