TDF Stage 14: Saint-Gaudens - Plateau de Beille 168km

[on3m@n@rmy]

If AC loses 2-3 more minutes, he'll become a threat to get into a break, ride off the front of the peloton, and win a stage.

that's a big IF... losing 2-3 minutes, which I don't think will happen. But let's say it does happen, then I'm not sure the other GC guys will let him get away. Just like how LA marked Pantani in 2000 as a guy they (Postal) had to keep their eye on.

Still, you make an interesting point. Could happen that way.

 

[Maxiton]

that's a big IF... losing 2-3 minutes, which I don't think will happen. But let's say it does happen, then I'm not sure the other GC guys will let him get away. Just like how LA marked Pantani in 2000 as a guy they (Postal) had to keep their eye on.

Still, you make an interesting point. Could happen that way.

Frankly I can't see Contador ever getting into a break. They'd have to be crazy (or stupid) to allow it. If he goes up the road in a break you won't see him again until Paris. If he goes up the road it won't be because anyone let him, and it won't be to join a break. And they still won't see him til Paris. IMO.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Frankly I can't see Contador ever getting into a break. They'd have to be crazy (or stupid) to allow it. If he goes up the road you won't see him again until Paris.

pretty much my thought too.

BTW, freakin grrrrrrrrrrreat OP Hitch. Felt like I was drinking from a fire hydrant.

 

[dgodave]

BTW, freakin grrrrrrrrrrreat OP Hitch. Felt like I was drinking from a fire hydrant.

For sure. Got me excited for all these lesser known climbs.
.
I still want to see some charming eglises and chateaux, though.
.

 

[theswordsman]

Great preview Hitch, thanks.

Just a reminder that again the stage and coverage start early. Eurosport UK is scheduled to start their pre-race show at 10:30 their time, 4:30 Central.

This should be a great stage, but it's tough to pick without seeing Friday first. I hope that Leopard-Trek are really going to struggle Friday from their effort today. Class guys who lost time today might have a stronger day. Normally I'd root for a really competitive finish, but Saturday I'd settle for a Contador attack while everyone else stops for coffee. I hope that Alberto's knee is better, and he puts in three consistent days while some other guys struggle on at least one.

 

[nevada]

Great preview Hitch, thanks.

Just a reminder that again the stage and coverage start early. Eurosport UK is scheduled to start their pre-race show at 10:30 their time, 4:30 Central.

This should be a great stage, but it's tough to pick without seeing Friday first. I hope that Leopard-Trek are really going to struggle Friday from their effort today. Class guys who lost time today might have a stronger day. Normally I'd root for a really competitive finish, but Saturday I'd settle for a Contador attack while everyone else stops for coffee. I hope that Alberto's knee is better, and he puts in three consistent days while some other guys struggle on at least one.

Is it just his knee ? When he attacked on that Alpe of Brittany I thought he looked like he was struggling and that was pre-crash.

 

[Sasquatch]

If Vanendert wants to get someone out of the tour for OPL then he goes in the break. He has a serious, legitimate chance of winning the KOM jersey.

Chances are Martinez might finally do what we've thought he would do for the last few years. Defend Sammy's jersey. Might end up going for it too.

 

[Maxiton]

pretty much my thought too.

BTW, freakin grrrrrrrrrrreat OP Hitch. Felt like I was drinking from a fire hydrant.

Yeah, I was agreeing with you.

 

[theviciousfishes]

Hitch, hope you don't mind my saying that you write a stage intro like no one else. By far. I know I've said that before but it bears repeating.

Four days ago I wrote:



So what was it we saw today on stage 12? Was it what it appeared to be, a weak and wounded Contador, vulnerable to attack and barely hanging on? Or was it Contador playing his cards close to his chest, holding back for the decisive selection on Saturday, where he plans to essentially win the Tour? I have to say, he was so convincing that I feared it was the former, a demoralized champion on his last legs.
Thanks to encouragement from The Hitch ("It ain't over") and others, though, and having had time to reflect, I think there is still a strong possibility that we will see AC unleash something awesome on stage 14. If he doesn't, or can't, then as Hitch says, it's over for him. Do or die.

As for the others, I'll stick with my pick of Basso for second, or first if AC falters, and not only for the Tour but also for this stage if Contador can't win it.

I had Andy for third step on the podium but now I'm thinking Evans. If stage 14 doesn't turn out to be Evans' bad day, I think he'll place very highly here, too.

Contador struggled without a doubt. But I don't believe him to be demoralized for the same reason I don't believe he is the type of rider to try and be cagey, allowing a small time loss to lure his opponents into a false sense of security and confidence only to crush their morale in one swoop. The man ain't built that way. He believes in his ability and lets be honest; he knows he's the best, cadel knows he's the best, the schleck's and everyone else knows he's the best. He wouldn't want to concede one second if he felt his legs were up to it because the benefit of a later sprung surprise would not outweigh the damage to his invincible mystique.

The man's pride has taken a wound and his legs most certainly hurt. But demoralized? Nah. Not him. The man is made of iron, he will break before he bends. Everyone of these contenders is going to have a day where they don't feel so good. Contador, indeed, may have more coming. But when they do will they be able to clot the losses as well as Contador did?

I don't think so. Especially if on that day the pistoleer has his day in the sun.

Crashes be damned, this tour is still the most interesting since 2006. For one of them to slay the dragon, he needs to be attacked on all sides. Cadel, Andy, Frank, and Samu are all in position. Do any of them have the stuff to finish the job?

 

[Mr. O'Clock]

I think the other favorites decide, to their peril, that AC is done and he stomps away for the win and picks up 1'+ on the other favorites (and Andy tells us that it is meaningless).

Pistelero by three minutes and then dropping out. He has the power, but time toilet another have the Paris glory.

 

[Maxiton]

Hitch, hope you don't mind my saying that you write a stage intro like no one else. By far. I know I've said that before but it bears repeating.

Four days ago I wrote:



So what was it we saw today on stage 12? Was it what it appeared to be, a weak and wounded Contador, vulnerable to attack and barely hanging on? Or was it Contador playing his cards close to his chest, holding back for the decisive selection on Saturday, where he plans to essentially win the Tour? I have to say, he was so convincing that I feared it was the former, a demoralized champion on his last legs.

Thanks to encouragement from The Hitch ("It ain't over") and others, though, and having had time to reflect, I think there is still a strong possibility that we will see AC unleash something awesome on stage 14. If he doesn't, or can't, then as Hitch says, it's over for him. Do or die.

As for the others, I'll stick with my pick of Basso for second, or first if AC falters, and not only for the Tour but also for this stage if Contador can't win it.

I had Andy for third step on the podium but now I'm thinking Evans. If stage 14 doesn't turn out to be Evans' bad day, I think he'll place very highly here, too.

EDIT: And even if it isn't realistic to think he can win it all in one fell swoop here, he can certainly establish his authority, and bring the battle to his rivals.

 

[dlwssonic]

please cuddles hang in there and limit your losses, this is probably your best and last chance to do it!

 

[Kwibus]

Nice preview Hitch!

I'm hoping for Basso to win this.

 

[kjetilraknerud]

I think Basso will ride a controlled race, staying with the other favourites. In the third week however...

 

[King Of The Wolds]

I do enjoy Hitch's previews, but Bertie isn't the undisputed finest rider of his generation and Bertie/Lance/Pantani aren't necessarily the best 3 climbers in history. Whatever, it sets the scene nicely.

Schleck, Schleck and Basso to arrive at the finish together, for me.

 

[The Hitch]

It is his mountain because he beat Chicken in a sprint? Come on....

It is more like Armstrong's mountain because of his domination on this climb twice in le tour. People sometimes let their hate for something cloud reasonable judgement.

What makes you think I hate Armstrong? Come on ACF thats a baseless accusation.

Its Contadors mountain because hes the only person in the peloton, in France and in the race to have won on it.

If Armstrong was in the race then yes I would have called it Armstrongs mountain.

Great preview Hitch, thanks.

Just a reminder that again the stage and coverage start early. Eurosport UK is scheduled to start their pre-race show at 10:30 their time, 4:30 Central.

Freakin great news. Since I fully expect KOM action from the start, some green action, and perhaps even Leopard slamming on the pace on the earlier climbs, Im really excited to hear its on right from the start.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

I;m not going to be able to see this life. does anyone know a place to watch or download this stage, the day after other than cyclingtorrents??

 

[Lanark]

I;m not going to be able to see this life. does anyone know a place to watch or download this stage, the day after other than cyclingtorrents??

You could always try to use one of the large torrent sites like thepiratebay.

 

[Captain_Cavman]

Pistelero by three minutes and then dropping out. He has the power, but time toilet another have the Paris glory.

Cool, a time toilet. Like instead of driving a De Lorean to travel into the future, Michael J Fox just went for a crap instead.


My prediction: Alberto to suffer badly, admit his guilt and vow to return clean in a couple of years.

 

[The Hitch]

Contador says that Evans and Basso need to contribute to bringing back the Schlecks as well, rather than relying on him to do it everytime.

He says they were just content to let the Schlecks do as they please and hang on.

 

[kurtinsc]

Contador says that Evans and Basso need to contribute to bringing back the Schlecks as well, rather than relying on him to do it everytime.

He says they were just content to let the Schlecks do as they please and hang on.

The difference is that Evans at least can afford to give up a little time to the Schlecks. Not a ton... but a little. He's a better ITT rider and he's on par with them currently in terms of time.

While Contador is a better ITT rider too... he's down a minute and a half to Andy. HE'S the one who needs to chase more then anyone if he wants to win. Similarly, if Contador attacks, Andy and Frank need to conserve every second of their lead over Contador, while Evans can afford to let Contador take back 30 seconds or so.

Basso's ITT is a bit of an enigma. Very good at times, average at times and poor at times. Perhaps Contador has a point about him needing to help chase... but not if it wipes him out.

 

[El Pistolero]

Contador says that Evans and Basso need to contribute to bringing back the Schlecks as well, rather than relying on him to do it everytime.

He says they were just content to let the Schlecks do as they please and hang on.

I hope he doesn't chase them anymore and just expose the frauds that are Cuddles and Basso.

 

[The Hitch]

Your Sig

Bjarne Riis has yet to reveal his deadliest servant. The one who will lead the Danish armies in war. The one they say no living man can drop. Alberto Contador of Pinto. You’ve met him before. He stabbed Andy's chain at Port de Balés. He is the lord of Saxobank, the greatest of the Nine.

How has Bjarne Riis "yet to reveal" Alberto Contador. THat doesnt make any sence. Contador is the only person on Saxo bank most people watching the TOur can even name. Hes the most famous rider in the race.

Hes also the only guy Riss talks about.

Sig fail

 

[Archibald]

Pantani and Armstrong have the 2 best times up Alpe.

Of course this is just one way of looking at it, and I am being unfair to the legends that came before as they never had a chance of posting these kind of times in their eras, but is it such a stretch to suggest that these are the 3 greatest climbers?

yes, because you know how 2 of these 3 did it.

Contador- fear
Armstrong- surprise
Pantani- an almost fanatical devotion to the Pope

No one expects the Spanish Inquisition!!

Cool, a time toilet. Like instead of driving a De Lorean to travel into the future, Michael J Fox just went for a crap instead.

If Homer Jay can use a toaster, then why not?



Contador's quote about the others being in the red and him not due to his knee sounds interesting. He didn't look like he was doing it easy, and sure, looks can be deceiving.
I reckon he'll sit in again unless the knee has healed up enough for him to have a go. Meanwhile the others will all look at each other and the Schlecks will still be trying to work out how to get Andy in front of Frank without looking like a complete buttf*ck for doing his brother over...

 

[Boeing]

damn Hitch you are starting to sound like a journalist. there was even a hint of objectivity.