TDF Stage 17 - Thursday, July 22 2010, Pau - Col du Tourmalet, 174 km

[Big GMaC]

I can't help but feel it will kick off spectacularly, but end in more track stands.

Attacks have to go by Km13 on the ramp or else there won't be enough room for Schleck to get margin. He can't wait till the last ramp?

 

[reubenr]

I can't help but feel it will kick off spectacularly, but end in more track stands.

Thanks for the graphic. You are probably right. Contador doesn't have to win this stage and Schleck really doesn't have anyone to go up the mountain with except for Contador. Like last year, what was happening behind the two was more interesting, so, the race between Menchov and Sanchez will be more interesting, ultimately. If Schleck makes a mistake and exhausts himself. Menchov and Sanchez may make up some time. I don't think Schleck will let that happen but that in itself will take away from his charge. At this point, I don't see any reason for Contador to bother with an attack. He should let Andy do all the work and save himself for the time trial. The climb is hard enough. There are a few points on this mountain that favor Contador, and possibly some one like Rodriquez, just in case Andy looks a little tepid at some point, so there are many possibilities to keep it all interesting even if the Andy and Alberto show fizzles out in the end, which I think it will. If Schleck repeatedly attacks the way Alberto tried to do against the Chicken, he will falter badly, so I don't think he will try to do that. If Frank was here, they would both try to do that and would probably get away with it. We have to see where Vino or Rodgriquez fit in on Thursday.

 

[rhubroma]

Contador, if he wants to win this Tour hands down and display his class, has to win this stage!

If Shleck wins it, but looses the Tour anyway to AC in the time trial, then he is still the moral victor.

 

[benpounder]

While I agree that there are 4 men with podium ambitions, I think it is far more complex that suggested. Looking at last years 40.5km ITT, Contador beat Schleck by 1:45, Jurgen Van Den Broeck by 2:26 (and Cancellara by 0:03). Two years ago, on the 53km ITT, Cancellara beat Menchov by 1:34, Samu Sanchez by 2:53, and AS by 3:41. In other words, Sanchez knows he has to put time in on Menchov, Schleck needs to put time on both and all need Contador to crack.

BUT, Gesink, sitting behind VDB but just in front of Leipheimer is going to want to put time on both. Rodrigeuz, sitting just in front of Vino and Hesjedal, but just behind LL will also want some time in hand proir to the long flat ITT. Thus, I expect to see AS, Sanchez, Gesink (if he can), and Rodrigeuz to be the ones attacking on the last climb.

IF their strategies dont get hijacked. You have the battle for polka-dot. Moreau and Charteau, and their respective teams will fighting it out over the first 3 climbs. With Moreau attacking early, expect to see a RShack shadow. And dont forget both Cervelo and Lampre likely have dual tasks in the opening kms. Both want to give their sprinters opportunity for points (at 33km) and want to launch Sastre and Cunego for a possible stage victory.

AND seeing as the French riders have done so well in the mountains I expect to see QuickStep, FdJour, and AG2R also launching.

In all, that is a whole lot of folks looking for results.

THEN again, seems to me it was about a year ago when all eyes were on another MTF with great expectations of what was to come. We all remember the Ventoux Fizzle...

[my edit: bad cut/copy/paste]

 

[Parbar]

We have to see where Vino or Rodgriquez fit in on Thursday.

This.

Vino has been spectacular so far in support of Contador. Looking forward to him laying it all on the line one more time.

 

[benpounder]

Honestly, I am more looking forward to Charteau-Moreau showdown on Marie Blanque and Soulor.

Well, actually Astana can blow everyone apart on Marie Blanque. That climb is very steep.

I think all are fairly nasty. From the TdF site:

Km 13.5 - Côte de Renoir - 2.2 km climb to 6 % - Category 4
Km 56.5 - Col de Marie-Blanque - 9.3 km climb to 7.6 % - Category 1
Km 117.5 - Col du Soulor (D 126-D 918) - 11.9 km climb to 7.8 % - Category 1
Km 174.0 - COL DU TOURMALET (Souvenir Henri Desgrange) - 18.6 km climb to 7.5 % - Category H

 

[jazzcyclist]

Here's my prediction for Stage 17 once the GC contenders reach the Tourmalet:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1TxiVhrkZA

I must admit that I stole this one from someone else.

 

[reubenr]

This.

Vino has been spectacular so far in support of Contador. Looking forward to him laying it all on the line one more time.

Me, too! Plus or minus 10 characters.

 

[Ninety5rpm]

1 Alberto Contador
2 Andy Schleck 00:20
3 Jurgen Van Den Broeck :40
3 Samuel Sánchez 1:00
4 Denis Menchov 1:20
5 Luis León Sánchez 1:40

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Seems to me it was about a year ago when all eyes were on a MTF with great expectations of what was to come.

While I agree that there are 4 men with podium ambitions, I think it is far more complex that suggested. Looking at last years 40.5km ITT, Contador beat Schleck by 1:45, Jurgen Van Den Broeck by 2:26 (and Cancellara by 0:03). Two years ago, on the 53km ITT, Cancellara beat Menchov by 1:34, Samu Sanchez by 2:53, and AS by 3:41. In other words, Sanchez knows he has to put time in on Menchov, Schleck needs to put time on both and all need Contador to crack.

BUT, Gesink, sitting behind VDB but just in front of Leipheimer is going to want to put time on both. Rodrigeuz, sitting just in front of Vino and Hesjedal, but just behind LL will also want some time in hand proir to the long flat ITT. Thus, I expect to see AS, Sanchez, Gesink (if he can), and Rodrigeuz to be the ones attacking on the last climb.

IF their strategies dont get hijacked. You have the battle for polka-dot. Moreau and Charteau, and their respective teams will fighting it out over the first 3 climbs. With Moreau attacking early, expect to see a RShack shadow. And dont forget both Cervelo and Lampre likely have dual tasks in the opening kms. Both want to give their sprinters opportunity for points (at 33km) and want to launch Sastre and Cunego for a possible stage victory.

AND seeing as the French riders have done so well in the mountains I expect to see QuickStep, FdJour, and AG2R also launching.

In all, that is a whole lot of folks looking for results.

THEN again, seems to me it was about a year ago when all eyes were on another MTF with great expectations of what was to come. We all remember the Ventoux Fizzle...

The thing is, both Gesink and Rodriguez look toasted, while Levi WheelsuckHeimer is having his traditionally strong 3rd week.

 

[El Pistolero]

Seems to me it was about a year ago when all eyes were on a MTF with great expectations of what was to come.

While I agree that there are 4 men with podium ambitions, I think it is far more complex that suggested. Looking at last years 40.5km ITT, Contador beat Schleck by 1:45, Jurgen Van Den Broeck by 2:26 (and Cancellara by 0:03). Two years ago, on the 53km ITT, Cancellara beat Menchov by 1:34, Samu Sanchez by 2:53, and AS by 3:41. In other words, Sanchez knows he has to put time in on Menchov, Schleck needs to put time on both and all need Contador to crack.

BUT, Gesink, sitting behind VDB but just in front of Leipheimer is going to want to put time on both. Rodrigeuz, sitting just in front of Vino and Hesjedal, but just behind LL will also want some time in hand proir to the long flat ITT. Thus, I expect to see AS, Sanchez, Gesink (if he can), and Rodrigeuz to be the ones attacking on the last climb.

IF their strategies dont get hijacked. You have the battle for polka-dot. Moreau and Charteau, and their respective teams will fighting it out over the first 3 climbs. With Moreau attacking early, expect to see a RShack shadow. And dont forget both Cervelo and Lampre likely have dual tasks in the opening kms. Both want to give their sprinters opportunity for points (at 33km) and want to launch Sastre and Cunego for a possible stage victory.

AND seeing as the French riders have done so well in the mountains I expect to see QuickStep, FdJour, and AG2R also launching.

In all, that is a whole lot of folks looking for results.

THEN again, seems to me it was about a year ago when all eyes were on another MTF with great expectations of what was to come. We all remember the Ventoux Fizzle...

Quickstep is not a French team and Chavenel and Pineau don't stand a chance in a mountain stage like that.

 

[reubenr]

1 Alberto Contador
2 Andy Schleck 00:20
3 Jurgen Van Den Broeck :40
3 Samuel Sánchez 1:00
4 Denis Menchov 1:20
5 Luis León Sánchez 1:40

I don't think so. First of all. Luis Leon has not done very much. I think he is waiting for the Vuelta, so I would be surprised that he makes an appearance on this stage. I had thought he might break through on others but he didn't, so what is the point now, except maybe to help Samuel. I liked Van Den Broeck from the start and it would be great if he was there at the end but that seems very unlikely, as well, unless he has saved something in the bank and is getting a bailout. If Contador has the legs at the end and just wants to be "not so nice" he will ramp it up at the end, where it is especially steep and I don't think that Andy, as much as he would like to, will be able to respond. But I don't think Alberto will do that with everything that has gone down.

 

[talktoandy]

Contador will win by over 1 minute on Thursday. Despite him not needing the win for overall victory, this is a matter of pride. He didn't need the advantage given by Schleck's mechanical. He always planned to drop everyone on the Tourmalet and will still do so. Everyone will battle for second. A large confident victory means he can celebrate through the time trial without pressure. The day of reckoning is coming and Contador will deliver.

 

[benpounder]

The thing is, both Gesink and Rodriguez look toasted, while Levi WheelsuckHeimer is having his traditionally strong 3rd week.

You may be right. I was only addressing what I think the riders think when they look at how they and those around them will perform in the TT, and thus what they think they have to do come Thursday.

ps the snide alliterations dont make this forum more enjoyable. I know, most members do it, even me occasionally. But it is more likely to obscure any point one may be trying to convey. And not that you did, I'm just using your comment as a foil to vent on a pet peeve of mine.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I'm sorry, I just can't let it sometimes...
Especially with guys who don't add anything to the Tour but following.

I mean, like you said, even Gesink and Rodriguez, if they feel good, try to attack or take the front
Leipheimer only follows

 

[Zaschrona]

1. Schleck
2. Contador +1.24
3. Rodriguez +1.58
4. Van den Broeck +1.58
5. Kreuziger +2.24
6. Vinokourov +2.24
7. Leipheimer +2.24
8. Sanchez +2.46
9. Gesink +3.29
10. Menchov +3.29

Yep, I hope for an exciting time trial

 

[benpounder]

Quickstep is not a French team...

Which is why I said French riders. Furthermore, Chavanel should not have won stage 2, but he did. He is riding strong enough that if he gets himself into another break with the right race dynamics going on behind him - which is the real point I was trying to stress - who knows?

 

[franciep10]

I think with Andy having to attack to win the tour he's going to set himself up for a counter attack that will decide the race

 

[roundabout]

I'm sorry, I just can't let it sometimes...
Especially with guys who don't add anything to the Tour but following.

I mean, like you said, even Gesink and Rodriguez, if they feel good, try to attack or take the front
Leipheimer only follows

Have you seen Leipheimer attack? The man makes Evans look like Pantani .

 

[dgodave]

Contador will win by over 1 minute on Thursday. Despite him not needing the win for overall victory, this is a matter of pride. He didn't need the advantage given by Schleck's mechanical. He always planned to drop everyone on the Tourmalet and will still do so. Everyone will battle for second. A large confident victory means he can celebrate through the time trial without pressure. The day of reckoning is coming and Contador will deliver.

Agreed. He's going to tear it up.
.

 

[benpounder]

Leipheimer only follows

Are you daft? Levi attacks like Miguel Indurain!

 

[erader]

Lance won the last ITT in 2000 and the last ITT and TTT in 2005. Those years were close to being without victories though.

so i guess whoever started this thinks that contador can't win the ITT?

erader

 

[scribe]

so i guess whoever started this thinks that contador can't win the ITT?

erader

He really shouldn't on many different levels, but he probably will.

 

[jazzcyclist]

Have you seen Leipheimer attack? The man makes Evans look like Pantani .

He unsuccessfully attacked Rasmussen on the final mountain stage of the 2007 Tour before Rasmussen was sent home.

 

[The Hitch]

THEN again, seems to me it was about a year ago when all eyes were on another MTF with great expectations of what was to come. We all remember the Ventoux Fizzle...

[my edit: bad cut/copy/paste]

But on ventoux contador had a huge gap to 2nd place and had therefore already won the yellow.
Schleck had a big gap to armstrong and was therefore already guaranteed 2nd.
Armstrong had a comfortable gap to wiggins who was a worse climber and a bigger one to frank, so therefore was relatively safe in 3rd.

Garate and Martin were far up the road, so the stage win was also out of sight (jeez, was martin really contesting a win on ventoux last year, i havent seen any eveidence of climbing this year)

Come to think of it there was no reason for anyone to attack.