TDF Stage 17 - Thursday, July 22 2010, Pau - Col du Tourmalet, 174 km

[The Hitch]

I had thought he might break through on others but he didn't, so what is the point now, except maybe to help Samuel.

Why would LLS help SS. They are not brothers you know.

 

[The Hitch]

so i guess whoever started this thinks that contador can't win the ITT?

erader

I started it. I said he "could become" not "will become"

i dont think he will win the tt because

1 its flat- not his ideal tt
2 Fabian Cancellara
3 Tony Martin
4 probably a few others
5 he came 6th in the prologue, he came 2nd last year when he won the final tt.
6 some think it will be too long for him.
7 he didnt do to well in the dauphine tt, which was similar, though he was training so maybe cant look too much at that.

 

[benpounder]

Come to think of it there was no reason for anyone to attack.

In hindsight I can't disagree. I just remember so many (myself included) dreaming up reasons why many of the players should attack. My opinion is just that. But then, I'm hoping that most of the riders are going into stage 17 with an offensive plan... rather than the defensive plan we saw played out on Ventoux last [snooze] year.

...

hurrumph

...

ummmm

...

Damnit, if I am going to wake myself up at 0430 just to watch some stupid bike race in France...

I WANT SOME ACTION!!!

...
shuffle... shuffle...

um, sorry for that outburst.

 

[Pezrider]

But on ventoux contador had a huge gap to 2nd place and had therefore already won the yellow.
Schleck had a big gap to armstrong and was therefore already guaranteed 2nd.
Armstrong had a comfortable gap to wiggins who was a worse climber and a bigger one to frank, so therefore was relatively safe in 3rd.

Garate and Martin were far up the road, so the stage win was also out of sight (jeez, was martin really contesting a win on ventoux last year, i havent seen any eveidence of climbing this year)

Come to think of it there was no reason for anyone to attack.

Garate hasn't done much on his own this tour, is he a chance to go up the road and repeat last years Ventoux stage??
Or will he try and stick with Menchov/Gesink??
I can't really see a breakaway holding off Contador if he wants this stage win though.

 

[The Hitch]

Garate hasn't done much on his own this tour, is he a chance to go up the road and repeat last years Ventoux stage??
Or will he try and stick with Menchov/Gesink??
I can't really see a breakaway holding off Contador if he wants this stage win though.

Garate. Good choice. Then again, last year was a disaster for rabo and garates win saved them, this year they have bigger fish to fry.

edit: I meant last years tour was a disaster for rabo, not the whole year, as i dont want to be attacked by all the dutchies, complaining that im dutchophobic, pointing out that lars boom won a stage in the vuelta, and menchov a few stages in the giro .

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

He unsuccessfully attacked Rasmussen on the final mountain stage of the 2007 Tour before Rasmussen was sent home.

Wait, what? The only thing Levi attacks is the rear wheel in front of him.

Man, I hope Gesink has saved something in the tank for a special day. Honestly, I'm not impressed with the way Contador has ridden. Schleck...meh.
I still have some hope for a bold attack from one of the other contenders if AC and AS play around too much.

Not a Menchov fan, so I'd rather see Rabo throw all their efforts behind RG.

 

[Jamsque]

I think Riis is going to play it exactly like he played the Alpe d'Huez stage in '08. He'll stick the whole team on the front, all day, and then Andy will try to launch at the foot of the Tourmalet.

 

[Sasquatch]

Rodriguez is worsening, like Gesink, I wouldn't expect anything to come out of him at the moment.
Both Rodriguez and Gesink have to look back and hope no time trial specialists come any closer then they are now.

Rodriguez is suffering because of the heat. He has a rest day in cooler conditions and then it will be cooler conditions on Thursday. He should be fine for a reasonable placing on Tourmalet. Should keep his position or thereabouts.

Gesink, Rodriguez, Leipheimer, Hesjedal, Kreuziger are all struggling. Hesjedal will struggle big time on Thursday. Vino could very well move up to 6th with Levi in 5th. Though, Vino has to crack sometime.

Even if Rodriguez cracks on the climb, he still has a 2 minute advantage on tenth place Hesjedal who will be cooked on that climb. He hasn't been near the front with Rodriguez/Gesink etc at all in the Pyrenees except yesterday. Very interesting indeed what will happen.

 

[ericthesportsman6]

The thing is, both Gesink and Rodriguez look toasted, while Levi WheelsuckHeimer is having his traditionally strong 3rd week.

What are you talking about? Levi was able to stay with the faves in the Alps, but he's been multiple groups back of Rodriguez and Gesink in both the important Pyrenees stages so far. He's getting worse, not better.

 

[Sasquatch]

How I see this happening:

Caisse are going to tear up the climb to try and set up Moreau for the polka dots. They need to eliminate Charteau somehow. Moreau can't be in a break and get first points over the top and Charteau gets second. They need to dictate the race and try and burn off Charteau. Won't be easy. Interesting to see what their tactics are.

They came here for a stage win and came for a top ten for LLS.

LLS won't come top ten and they won't get a stage win. They will need to get something out of this tour - the KOM jersey.

If any team puts the pace on early, the guys that have been suffering, Rodriguez and Gesink and LLS and a few others are going to lose big time so they really don't want to see LLS dropped on the first climb.

 

[hrotha]

I think Riis is going to play it exactly like he played the Alpe d'Huez stage in '08. He'll stick the whole team on the front, all day, and then Andy will try to launch at the foot of the Tourmalet.

I'm afraid you'll be right. It'll hurt when they still show up at interviews saying "We tried our hardest."

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

Good post, Sasquatch.

I'd really like to see that, actually. It would animate the race considerably. I think there are going to be a lot of nerves on that stage, and the peloton could shatter early.

Honestly, I'm not sold on the idea of Saxo waiting until the Tourmalet. Andy needs AT LEAST 2 minutes for the final TT. I don't see him getting it on one climb UNLESS maybe Contador is isolated. Which will be hard to do.

 

[oncehadhair]

I'm just thankful that we still have a race on at this late stage of the tour.

Serious race between 1 and 2, another duel between 3 and 4 and with any luck while 1 and 2 are farting around 3 and 4 cliimb into the overall equation. Not to mention the race for the red spots.

Best t de f in years.

 

[2beeDammed]

and the weather ? I hear rain and cold temps are the forecast.

 

[Sasquatch]

If it's cold, it will suit the guys on their last legs - Rodriguez, Gesink etc.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

What are you talking about? Levi was able to stay with the faves in the Alps, but he's been multiple groups back of Rodriguez and Gesink in both the important Pyrenees stages so far. He's getting worse, not better.

to be fair gesink looks very tired.
He has struggled the last couple of stages, a lot.
Hesj was better then him on stage 15 (on the climb).. gesink is a much better climber than him (but he has never looked to good in the climbs this tour, he has also seemed to be 'suviving'), I'm pretty sure gesink peaked too early (suisse) and the early fall probably didn't help.
Depending on the itt, top ten is not assured. Levi will certainly leapfrog him imo.

not to worry tho, he will be much better next year for this experience.

JvB might hold on to 5th.
Menchov I think can still atke 2nd.
Levi could even get 5th, but i expect 6th place.
Gesink should be be somewhere between 6-8th... i predict 8th.

 

[King Of Molehill]

One thing's for sure, this stage will not live up to the hype.

Mont Ventoux was meant to be a similar affair last year and it didn't really live up to the hype but if there ever was a mountain to really lay it down for the riders to tear themselves up this is it. I think the problem is the TT because riders like Contador and Menchov know they can gain time there so they won't risk as much on this stage.

 

[badboyberty]

So now that his Lanceness has proven that he can't ride the flat cobbles, he can't climb like a GC contender, and is unable to sprint it out as a stage hunter, will he try his hand at being a super-domestique for a day?

Or has he decided that Levi is some sort of cancer he must fight?

 

[spanky wanderlust]

my prediction for tomorrow:

i agree that we will see saxo destroying the field tomorrow to the base of the tourmalet. the selection will be forced halfway up. the final selection will be forced by either andy or berto on the upper slopes. they are both so evenly matched, neither will get away for serious time. but they will both put time into the second tier climbers: menchov, gesink, vdb, et al.

andy may finally drop alberto in the finale, but he won't get more than 20-30s. he may get to ride the tt in yellow, but he will not get enough to win. just enough to keep second, and re-establish himself as conta's main rival for next year.

sammy sanchez will get dropped early and drop out of the top 5.

menchov will put the stamp on his rightful podium position.

enjoy the rest day everyone!

 

[badboyberty]

I'm just thankful that we still have a race on at this late stage of the tour.

Serious race between 1 and 2, another duel between 3 and 4 and with any luck while 1 and 2 are farting around 3 and 4 cliimb into the overall equation. Not to mention the race for the red spots.

Best t de f in years.

Seriously now;

It's actually a race between 1, 2 and 3. Menchov is a good enough TT'er that Schelcklet's hold on 2nd is still looking precarious.

 

[dgodave]

Mont Ventoux was meant to be a similar affair last year and it didn't really live up to the hype but if there ever was a mountain to really lay it down for the riders to tear themselves up this is it. I think the problem is the TT because riders like Contador and Menchov know they can gain time there so they won't risk as much on this stage.

I think that was because the headwind was intense. Very hard to do anything alone on the last 8 or 9 km.... or whatever the last long stretch was.
.
Hopefully that wont be an issue on thurs.
.

 

[skidmark]

If contador doesnt win this stage, he could be the first mj in paris to not have won a stage for a long time. Also first winner in a while to do that in any gt.

I worded it so that Oscar Perreiro doesnt count cos Flandis was on the mj in paris.

Well Contador didn't win any stages in the 2008 Giro... does that count as 'awhile'? But yeah, at the tour, Pereiro aside, it's a looong time.

Although he also has stage 19 as a possibility if he doesn't get 17.

ETA: Yeesh, my comment was about 7 pages too late. Don't know why I didn't think it would be...

 

[frizzlefry]

I predict the love fest between AS and AC will continue and they will hold hands up the entire climb and kiss as they cross the finish line. Then AC will destroy AS in the TT and win the TdF.

 

[frizzlefry]

And then they will get a room in Paris after the after parties.

 

[blaxland]

stage predictions;
1st=Schleck
2nd=Contador -Same time as Schleck
3rd=Sanchez-1.30 mins down
4th=Menchov?
5th=Gesink?
Favourites will ride cautiously because of the final time trial................