TDF Stage 17 - Thursday, July 22 2010, Pau - Col du Tourmalet, 174 km

[Sasquatch]

1. Contador
2. Schleck +0.20
3. Menchov +0.40
4. Sanchez +0.40
5. Rodriguez +1.30
6. Van Den Broeck +1.30
7. Leipheimer +1.30
8. Vinokourov +1.50
9. Gesink +2.10
10. Sanchez +2.10

The way I see it, the top 10 will stay roughly the same and come in at different times. The top four will crap over everyone else. Sanchez will find his way back into the top ten, Vino will still be there and those first 10 across the line will be the final top 10.

Rodriguez said the heat was starting to affect him prior to yesterday. It was another scorcher and he struggled. It's going to be cold, so that should help him and everyone else were on their last legs. He and the others don't need to mark Menchov or Sanchez or Van Den Broeck. He needs to finish ahead of Hesjedal etc and follow Leipheimer and Gesink's wheels. Van Den Broeck will be keen to defend his top five. Leipheimer, Gesink, Rodriguez will be keen to defend their top ten. Sanchez and Menchov will have a battle for third and potentially second. Contador and Schleck will have a battle for first. Vinokourov, Sanchez, Kreuziger, Hesjedal will all have a battle for the remainder of the top ten.

The way some of the guys from 6th to Vino have ridden, they deserve their top ten. If they don't get it, it will be a shame because Contador, Schleck, Menchov, Sanchez, Van Den Broeck, Rodriguez, Gesink, Vinokourov and Leipheimer have been the only consistent guys in the mountains. If anyone else gets their spot, it will be a crap way to end the Tour.

 

[Nickbeam]

rumours say, Denis could move in Astana in the next year, if Bertie leaves the team. what to you guys think about that? he's also linked with vacansoleil and katusha. interesting, what's he gonna do.

 

[Sophistic]

Mont Ventoux didnt live up to the hype last year because 1)of the strong headwind and 2)Contador had it in the bag and A.Schleck was just interested in helping his brother.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Yup, weather is changing, big time, from today.
Tomorrow:
Pau 20C, Tourmalet 10C and rain/storms throughout the Pyrenees.

Why do I get the feeling we will experience another "racing incident"?

I look at the stage profile and think that the big difference is that there are long, flat roads between each col. A bummer, IMO.

Only one tactic available for early fireworks. Get 2 or 3 roulers up the road and attack, maybe risking all on wet roads and drive in the valley to the Tourmalet.

Trouble is, we have a group of riders wanting to get in the break.
A green jersey sprint after the 4th cat.
The KOM battle.
The all important team classification wheel suck.

Getting up the road at all, may be as hard as getting up the Tourmalet in the top 30.

IMO, it kicks off on the Tourmalet, between kms 6-8, where there are 3kms averaging close to 9%.

 

[Dutchsmurf]

Mont Ventoux didnt live up to the hype last year because 1)of the strong headwind and 2)Contador had it in the bag and A.Schleck was just interested in helping his brother.

And this year we get 1) bad weather and 2) Contador has it in the bag and A.Schleck is just interested in protecting his second place. Schleck will probably try to drop Menchov and Sanchez. If that works, we get an interesting fight. If he doesn't drop both, he will stop wasting energy. I don't think he will drop them both, so it won't be too exciting. Contador attacks 1km before the top to get his stage win.
They should use those legendary climbs like Tourmalet and Ventoux as the first real test, not the last one.

 

[oncehadhair]

Seriously now;

It's actually a race between 1, 2 and 3. Menchov is a good enough TT'er that Schelcklet's hold on 2nd is still looking precarious.

True about Menchov but lets take it one stage at a time. Menchov and Sanchez have been inseparable in the mountains and i will enjoy their duel almost as much as the one between AS and AC. It might be a whole new game by the time trial.

 

[Anonymous]

Can someone please explain why there is a *** Spring stage between Col du Solur and Col du Tourmalet.

 

[Rob_Roy]

Can someone please explain why there is a *** Spring stage between Col du Solur and Col du Tourmalet.

The obvious answer must be Thor Hushovd!

 

[oronet commander]

Honestly, I am more looking forward to Charteau-Moreau showdown on Marie Blanque and Soulor.

Well, actually Astana can blow everyone apart on Marie Blanque. That climb is very steep.

Absolutely. Astana should indeed try to drop Cancellara and Voigt in the Marie Blanque to simplify its work later.

 

[Benedict XVI]

1) Astana revs up the pace from the beginning letting an insignificant breakaway go
2) Peloton (GC contenders) stay together until Tourmalet
3) Astana sets hard pace on Tourmalet, no one dares to attack
4) Conti shoots out
5) Schlep follows, cannot catch Contator, rides tempo
6) Menchov & Sanchez catch up to the overheated Schlep, drop him, take a minute from him on the top
7) Contador wins stage

 

[Rob_Roy]

Absolutely. Astana should indeed try to drop Cancellara and Voigt in the Marie Blanque to simplify its work later.

I dont know how much help Jens can give considering his nasty fall yesterday.I think that the only part that really didnt get bruised on him yesterday was his left lil toe,perhaps.
He is a fighter though old Jens,he never quits,last year only since the ambulance took him to hospital before he woke up to say NO.
There has to be something with stage 16 and Jens that doesnt work to good together...

 

[Eyeballs Out]

These posts saying Andy MUST take two minutes are just pure guesswork - seemingly based on races a long time ago and/or when Contador was a lot better than Schleck.

My guesswork is this - if Schleck is strong enough to take 45 seconds out of Contador tomorrow then that will be enough to win the Tour. It would say for sure that Schleck is clearly the stronger rider of the two and while Contador's superior TT technique might buy him some time on Saturday it wouldn't be enough to overcome a stronger rider in the yellow jersey

 

[hoolaparara]

I'm going to tip the usual conservativeness.. astana lead a 40 rider group over the second climb strong tempo at the bottom of tourmalet.

Schleck makes an early attack that breaks that up but still leaves a 12 leaders group that mows down whatever break away there is. Then we sit around until the disappointingly late attacks come contador counters schleck in the last kilometre and they came in dribs and drabs with 10 guys in the first 2 minutes.

I think its been a nil all draw between contador and schleck in the climbing and I think it will be damn close to that tomorrow.

 

[El Pistolero]

These posts saying Andy MUST take two minutes are just pure guesswork - seemingly based on races a long time ago and/or when Contador was a lot better than Schleck.

My guesswork is this - if Schleck is strong enough to take 45 seconds out of Contador tomorrow then that will be enough to win the Tour. It would say for sure that Schleck is clearly the stronger rider of the two and while Contador's superior TT technique might buy him some time on Saturday it wouldn't be enough to overcome a stronger rider in the yellow jersey

Schleck lost 40 seconds on Contador in a 9km prologue on the TdF 2010.

 

[salixcycling]

These posts saying Andy MUST take two minutes are just pure guesswork - seemingly based on races a long time ago and/or when Contador was a lot better than Schleck.

My guesswork is this - if Schleck is strong enough to take 45 seconds out of Contador tomorrow then that will be enough to win the Tour. It would say for sure that Schleck is clearly the stronger rider of the two and while Contador's superior TT technique might buy him some time on Saturday it wouldn't be enough to overcome a stronger rider in the yellow jersey

Andy won't automatically become a minute faster simply because of the colour of his jersey.

Yes, it is possible for him to win if he is only a minute ahead of Contador, heck, even if he is behind it is still possible.

To have a good chance of winning, he needs 2 minutes. (The 'incident' didn't change that!)

 

[roundabout]

The incident means that he now has to go 39 seconds faster over the 2 decisive stages. Let's just say it's a lot of time given that Schleck was capable of only miniscule time gains before.

 

[Señor_Contador]

As far as the TT goes... I'm going to go out on a limb here but... I think Andy's going to lose > 3 minutes.

Anyhow, I hope he gives it to Alberto tomorrow. The Tourmalet is going to be a warzone tomorrow for sure, the type of stage that makes fans out of casual viewers. Although I sure hope the Vs. crowd don't turn the commentary into some sort of episode of The View.

Go Andy! Go Alberto!

 

[2wheels]

He doesn't have a team capable of doing that. If the pace gets too hot, he'll be isolated.

Depends where they are on the parcours. I think Saxo can put Astana on the ropes between the climbs; vice versa once it tips uphill. I'm kind of interested in seeing who goes up the road tomorrow (or tries to) in an early break: Vino? Sorensen or Fuglsang? Maybe even Gesink? Or even (gasp) Lance, to help Levi and to secure the all-important team competition? First hour may be a major headache for Astana to control-- in fact the other teams are crazy if they don't send some good guys out early.

 

[2wheels]

I think Riis is going to play it exactly like he played the Alpe d'Huez stage in '08. He'll stick the whole team on the front, all day, and then Andy will try to launch at the foot of the Tourmalet.

Don't think that will happen-- Saxo would burn out long before the foot of the Tourmalet on those two Cat. 1 climbs. If Andy has any teammates to launch him there, it will only be because they went up the road early on. Besides, Saxo-- and everyone else-- needs to make Astana ride hard on the front for most of the stage, if they're going to isolate Contador on the last climb.

Might even be a backdoor way here for someone like Menchov or Sanchez to steal the whole ball of wax: if a couple of top ten guys get up the road in a break it could burn out Astana's horses before Tourmalet, then Andy attacks repeatedly and cracks Contador, only to run out of gas himself before summit and have a winning counter-attack go by him. However-- reality is usually far less exciting than these fantasies of mine. . .

 

[oronet commander]

I dont know how much help Jens can give considering his nasty fall yesterday.I think that the only part that really didnt get bruised on him yesterday was his left lil toe,perhaps.
He is a fighter though old Jens,he never quits,last year only since the ambulance took him to hospital before he woke up to say NO.
There has to be something with stage 16 and Jens that doesnt work to good together...

You are right It was probably a subconscious proof of my admiration to Jens' power and toughness...

 

[Señor_Contador]

[...]then Andy attacks repeatedly and cracks Contador[...]

That hasn't happened at the TdF since Rasmussen dropped him on the Plateau de Beille stage when Da Chicken got the boot from his team for lying on his whereabouts in June.

Even then the Spaniards only lost around one minute to (a fully juiced up) Michael. Alberto's not the type of rider that blows himself up. When he gets dropped he knows how to pace himself up the mountain and not lose a ton of time (like he did in the 2008 Giro vs. Riccó).

What we should do is stick to what we know has actually happened, not to hypothetics. Andy has never been able to really drop Contador on a mountain stage. On the other hand, Alberto has. Andy can't TT. Alberto can. Heck, AS lost almost two minutes to Alberto at the Annecy stage last year.

 

[The Hitch]

BTW

does anyone know how many fans will be on the tourmalet for this mtf

Will it be like alp d huez.

THey said 1 million people were on the zoncolan this year, and tomorows mtf is the final mountain stage of the grandady of them all. Is it going to be like that?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Could be, possible even more than 1 million since the Tourmalet is a much longer col than Alpe d'Hueze and can probably host more people

 

[jilbiker]

Schleck lost 40 seconds on Contador in a 9km prologue on the TdF 2010.

Someone is going to crack tomorrow, either AS or AC, there will be a clear difference.

 

[Cervelo77]

Schleck lost 40 seconds on Contador in a 9km prologue on the TdF 2010.

Umm, the last TT is 50 km and comes 3000 kms after the prologue. The two cannot be compared. Last TTs are always about who is in the best shape and has recovered well. On paper Evans should have smoked Sastre in the final TT in 2008, but that did not happen.