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TdF stge 1 Monaco ITT, 15.50 km

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Jun 22, 2009
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I have really enjoyed your collective analyses, and I'm eager to join in. I hope you will accept my input. I think that opportunities for Levi to win any stages in this TdF will be few except for this one. He seems to be in very good form and has done well in short TT's in the past, so I think he'll go for the win. I guess the problem though, if it is a problem, will be to defend the jersey or not; but they don't have to defend it, right?
 
Apr 19, 2009
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I am picking Armstrong for the win here or to be in the top three. The Nevada City classic was basically a TT for him at the end. where he was alone for the last 6 laps of a the 1.1 mile course with 120ft of climbing, and 7 turns. Of which equaled 10.6k total. According to Velonews Armstrong was turning 2.5 minute laps. So almost 26.5 mph or 42.4kph.

food for thought
 
Apr 12, 2009
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This is a tricky time trial due to the length and the fact that it finishes after a descent and then end in to a flat section, should lead most people to think that cancellara should win, but it will be hard for him to catch up to contador's pace though. The thing is looking at the profile the climb looks perfectly suited to cancellara, but contador will be faster on the climb, and then hold on for the flat section.

1. Contador
2. Cancellara
3. Martin
4. Evans.
5. Larsson
 
karlboss said:
has columbia's team been announced? In that case wiggins

Déjà 45 victoires en 6 mois et le team Columbia ne compte pas s’arrêter là. A moins de deux semaines du départ de la Grande Boucle, la formation qui se pose comme la favorite pour les victoires au sprint et le maillot vert a annoncé une liste de cinq coureurs définitifs pour le Tour de France. Outre les incontournables Mark Cavendish, Kim Kirchen et Michael Rogers, le Capitaine de route George Hincapie et le très prometteur Tony Martin seront aussi de l’aventure. Les quatre dernières places seront à attribuer aux coureurs suivants : Bernhard Eisel, Thomas Lövkvist, Marcus Burghardt, Maxime Monfort et Mark Renshaw.
http://www.velo-club.net/article?sid=53294
 
As i see it, the riders have to tackle a 7.5km climb at an average of 3% but which contains steeper and flatter bits. There is then a descent of about 5% that lasts for 3km and does contain some bends. The rest of it is fairly flat apart from a decent downhill at about 4km to go.

The climb isnt that bad and it shouldnt cost the TTers too much time and descending ability may be almost as important. Could bike choice be important too as weight and cornering ability could be important? The advantage that specialists like Wiggins have over the GC people is that, for the TTers, this is probably their biggest stage while the GCers have mountain stages to also think about, maintain their form for three weeks, etc. With this in mind i am going for

1. Cancellara
2. Wiggins
3. Contador
4. Martin
5. Armstrong

Will Cancellara try to retain the jersey? Its a long tour and the team will want to do a good job in the team TT and then support the Schlecks so i dont think they will be that bothered. The sprinters' teams will probably pull back the attacks in the first few days anyway.
 
Apr 11, 2009
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Looks like it's in the GC guys' interests to have Cancellara win. But think Evans and Menchov could surprise to the upside, along with Contador close by. If Menchov has recovered from Giro, sky's the limit.

But the kicker is this: think AC has to finish strongly ahead of Lance and Levi, or else he'll have no end of problems at the Tour. (Not surprised he raced the Spanish TT today. :) Smart.

Lance's interests are the opposite: to beat Contador at Monaco clearly. So Contador has to thread the needle: clearly faster than Lance but behind Cancellara.

Hope his DS in the car is on form. Tricky! :eek:
 
May 18, 2009
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i'm not sure why so many think contador ahead of evans, cadel is still better at TT.
wouldn't be suprised if it wasn't one of the favouites who won, somone with some speed in the legs, but not a renowned TT rider.

still going for the obvious though
1. Cancellara
2. Evans
3. Wiggins (he cained the IP at beijing)
4. menchov
5.AC
 
Wiggins could do it, and of course Cancellara. But the overall win is not as interesting to me as is the order of finishing for the GC contenders, and the time gaps among them.

I think Armstrong will definitely go all out and try to win this like in the good old days, for himself as much as for anyone else. If he wins, or even just beats Contador, he will demand to be the team leader (barring being dropped in the mountains). This prologue appears to be a relatively good measure of overall condition.

However, I only give Armstrong a 40% chance of succeeding. I am impressed with his apparent improvements since the Giro, training in the CO mountains (except for the one day in Nevada City), dropping the weight, TT specific training, etc., but he is 37 and Contador was smokin' in Spain this morning.

Ignoring Armstrong, Contador does not have quite as much to prove. He is the defacto team leader, and theoretically all he needs to do is not lose more than a few seconds to the other GC contenders, so he might hold off a bit, relatively. But, he knows his leadership might be in jeopardy if Lance beats him, especially if by a significant margin, so he might decide to not hold back anything either.

Levi knows he needs to save himself, and with AC and LA on his team, and given his faltering (relatively) form, he's probably not going to go for it, and probably couldn't win at this point anyway.

Cadel looks to be in the form of his life and might pull this one off.

1. Armstrong
2. Evans
3. Wiggins
4. Cancellara
5. AC
 
Quick question

This is a little off the point but it's not about doping or Lance.

Most of the TT specialist seem to be big guys like Cancellara, Wiggins, Millar etc but you also have guy like Contador, Levi and Kloden who are considerably smaller but are still very good at TT's. What makes a good TTer? Does weight make that much difference or is it more to do with riding style cadence etc?
 
Apr 20, 2009
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The course profile for stage 1 including the climb is almost identical to this years Dauphine prologue which was 12.1 km with a climb of 180m over 5 km which is comaprable to stage 1's 15.5km with a 7.5km climb that has 200m of climbing. In that stage the top 10 results of tour participants were 1 Cadel Evans 2 Alberto Contador 0.08 5 Vincenzo Nibali 0.34 7 Christian Knees 0.34 8 Benoît Vaugrenard 0.36 9 José Ivan Gutierrez Palacios 0.36 10 David Millar 0.37

The favorites have to be Cancellera, Evans and Contador. Outside of the top 3 there is a huge list of riders that could make the top 15. Just to name a few Kreuziger, Larsson, Menchov, Martin, Nibali, Gutierrez, Wiggins, Dekker, Millar, Rogers, Lang, Chavanel, Knees, Armstrong, Kloeden, Leipheimer, Posthuma the Schleck brothers and a number of others.
 
Bala Verde said:
Could be, but I only have the 'rough info', which states a 7.5k distance and a 700ft elevation over that distance. Within that same stretch there could obviously be some steeper sections, but I can't confirm this. :(
I think I'm going to copy the tdf route in to bikeroutetoaster to get exact gpx height data. ;) I'll check in a minute

findORElevation2.php


So, some steep parts definately there...
 
All depends.

I really don't have a guess, because I think this stage is really a stage within a stage. As so many have pointed out, if you are GC candidate you definitely don't want to defend the yellow jersey before Stage 7 (and even then it might be too soon to grab). If you are Contador, though, you may have to put more energy into this than you would otherwise, because of Armstrong's veiled intentions. I presume he (Contador) will be starting last for Astana (will be #1 and was the 2007 winner), so he'll have the benefit of his teammates' knowledge (and splits). I don't think Lance will respect him until he beats Lance straight up.
 
Mar 13, 2009
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uphillstruggle said:
This is a little off the point but it's not about doping or Lance.

Most of the TT specialist seem to be big guys like Cancellara, Wiggins, Millar etc but you also have guy like Contador, Levi and Kloden who are considerably smaller but are still very good at TT's. What makes a good TTer? Does weight make that much difference or is it more to do with riding style cadence etc?

If the course goes up and down a little as TT courses are tending to do a weight will make a difference. On a flat TT, speed will be determined by sustainable power vs aerodynamic drag primarily. Light guys are often small, and have low drag figures, these are the ones who can TT. Climbers techniques sometimes don't lend themselves to good TTs. I remember reading a report on simoni and millar in the wind tunnel, Millar's drag was about the same as simoni, despite being a lot bigger.
 
Jun 16, 2009
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Dekker_Tifosi said:
I think I'm going to copy the tdf route in to bikeroutetoaster to get exact gpx height data. ;) I'll check in a minute

findORElevation2.php


So, some steep parts definately there...

The last 5 kilometres on this diagram are wrong because it's dead flat to the finish. I'm not sure about the rest of the course though.
 
Agree with Karl's answer. To add: position, practice, concentration, etc. all come into play. Some riders love riding them, others don't. And the distance and route here will come into play, of course.

Good response by Pubilicus, especially this part:
Publicus said:
I don't think Lance will respect him until he beats Lance straight up.
I think that's a great point. And I'm not saying it to dis Lance. I think it's a bit valid for Lance to think that, as long as he doesn't undermine AC's chances. He has the right to expect to do his best, of course. But until he's shown the door, I don't think he's going to leave. All the same, I think Contador is the one who can, and will, do it. But perhaps not in Stage 1.

Four days to go!
 
I know MC fairly well and would imagine the course to be more technical than the poor little map, suggests.
It's going to be difficult for the favourites to balance effort, with a degree of safety.
Look what happened to Bobby Julich a couple of years back.

Factor in the desire of the same teams not to carry the leader's jersey from the outset and you come up with teams who's goal is to amass stage win.
We may have the reason for Columbia's recent change of Tour personel.