TdF stge 1 Monaco ITT, 15.50 km

[lone_cowboy]

Im hoping Cadel wins this tour and in thinking that i doubt he would want to take the yellow jersey right now... Unless he wants to try and build a lead steadily until they hit the high tops where his team could be exposed... All along i have thought this could be the day for christian vandevelde to take yellow and keep it until after the team time trial... wouldnt be too surprised if this happens... wouldnt think that any of the big boys of the tour would mind that too much... another smoky maybe rogers...

 

[unsheath]

I'll have a little flutter on Wiggins myself. Might just go check out the odds now.

 

[Alex Simmons/RST]

I think I'm going to copy the tdf route in to bikeroutetoaster to get exact gpx height data. I'll check in a minute

Can you or anyone point me to a gpx file (or any reasonable elevation profile data - not pictures) for the ITT?

I would like to run the course though my pacing model.

 

[Alex Simmons/RST]

Can you or anyone point me to a gpx file (or any reasonable elevation profile data - not pictures) for the ITT?

I would like to run the course though my pacing model.

Found it:
http://www.mapmyride.com/ride/monaco/monaco/952124448131987388

Have run the model. Tricky course for pacing.

 

[Bala Verde]

Gesink updated his website after he reconned the ITT. He is contemplating using a normal roadbike

 

[Kittel]

That probably has more to do with the amount of curves than the elevation profile. Agree?

 

[uphillstruggle]

I'll have a little flutter on Wiggins myself. Might just go check out the odds now.

There is an outside chance he could be in yellow after the TTT riding for Garmain. It would be nice to see but I think he'll be second or third as usual.

 

[Bala Verde]

That probably has more to do with the amount of curves than the elevation profile. Agree?

I believe so. Lots of breaking and accelerating out of corners.

 

[Jasper]

So will this favor Cancellara? I mean, he will not be able to develop his trademark power speed that makes the difference on many occasions, and I imagine it's harder for such a big guy to constantly have to break and pull his 90+ kilos up to speed again? In contrast to smaller, punchier riders like Contador, Klöden, Wiggins or Leipheimer.

 

[american psycho]

weights

So will this favor Cancellara? I mean, he will not be able to develop his trademark power speed that makes the difference on many occasions, and I imagine it's harder for such a big guy to constantly have to break and pull his 90+ kilos up to speed again? In contrast to smaller, punchier riders like Contador, Klöden, Wiggins or Leipheimer.

fäbu is under 80 kilos (looks starved), and that's why he climbed so consistently (like a german diesel) in the tds.

what are the weights of the other riders?

i predict LA (not a fan boy, been racing since 1986).

 

[Bala Verde]

So will this favor Cancellara? I mean, he will not be able to develop his trademark power speed that makes the difference on many occasions, and I imagine it's harder for such a big guy to constantly have to break and pull his 90+ kilos up to speed again? In contrast to smaller, punchier riders like Contador, Klöden, Wiggins or Leipheimer.

It looks like it's the miniature version of the Cinque terra TT, up and down, left and right, but then compressed into 15.5K. I think it needs to be someone who can deal with these constant changes, although there are still some sections on which the TT specialist can develop some significant speed.

The Dauphine results are a good indicator, since the elevation profiles but also the technicality of the course are very similar. I expect to see Contador, Evans and Leipheimer, who have shown in the past that they can perform well in shorter TTs, but also Nibali, Kreuziger and LL Sanchez. Cancellara has shown good form in Suisse, so I still think he has great potential to take the stage, and he has proven to do well on long and short TTs

I think that Menchov, Karpets, and Kloden will lose a little time. They surface when it gets really tough, when others crack and lose time, they gain time by staying constant.

Rosseler looks like a dark horse, he did well on the stage in the Dauphine. Then Wiggins could be in the mix, but I think he favours flatter stages of this or shorter distances more. Tony Martin, is he a too much a diesel? Others are Vandevelde, but I think he too prefers longer harder TTs, Zabrisky and Millar.

Millar however always proves me wrong and seems to underperform when I mention his name

 

[auscyclefan94]

Monaco: Not for the tt specialsists

I think this time trial will not suit guys like Millar, Wiggins, Martin and Grabsch. It is a technical uphill and down course. The only real flat straight bits is the last 3 or 4 kilometres. The only time trial specialist it will suit is Cancellara because he is truly awesome He can go uphill alright and we all know how well he goes on the flat straights. I don' think Cancellara will blow everyone away though because i think guys like Contador, Evans, Leipheimer and menchov will go a bit better than him in uphill part so he will have to catch up with them in the 2nd half of the tt. If Cancellara is within 10 seconds of those guys (who will have probably posted the fastest times) at the first time check he will definetly go faster than them downhill and on the flats and will most likely take the stage.

 

[Anonymous]

I a going with Cancellara and Contador second.

 

[Amsterhammer]

I a going with Cancellara and Contador second.

A bold choice, sir. I will join you on the winner and differ (just for the hell of it) on the second, where I'll go for Grabsch.

 

[mr. tibbs]

I a going with Cancellara and Contador second.

Me too!

 

[Anonymous]

brad wiggins.. hes been riding in great form over the last two to three weeks...

did a lance and tore apart a semi pro field in the beaumon trophy a couple of weeks ago just by time trialling away from them (not a great win competition wise but he just look strong as hell), and solid in the british championships.. the guys in the form of his life..

 

[39*23t]

have to pick the fabalous one first wiggins second
when interviewed about the first TT Canc reply was with the form he has at the moment he doesn't even have to look at the course

 

[Chomsky]

I just saw some start times posted. LA will be the 1st Astana rider on the course starting at 4:17 pm, Levi 2nd at 4:37 and Contador will not start until after 7pm.

I wonder what this said about how JB feels about the form and chances of Levi and Lance to post a good time?

 

[auscyclefan94]

I just saw some start times posted. LA will be the 1st Astana rider on the course starting at 4:17 pm, Levi 2nd at 4:37 and Contador will not start until after 7pm.

I wonder what this said about how Ohan feels about the form and chances of Levi and Lance to post a good time?

Why are the riders starting so late in the day in Monaco. The last few guys such as contador, evans and sastre will be strating around 7:00 at night. Won't it be bit dark and dangerous for the riders?

 

[subzro]

Why are the riders starting so late in the day in Monaco. The last few guys such as contador, evans and sastre will be strating around 7:00 at night. Won't it be bit dark and dangerous for the riders?

It was the summer solstice there two weeks ago, I would imagine darkness wouldn't fall until nearly 9pm. It might be a bit cooler in the early evening though, that could be an advantage.

 

[hfer07]

In parenthesis are Eastern time

16:00 (10:00am) Van Hummel
16:17 (10:17am) Armstrong
16:34 (10:34am) Farrar
16:35 (10:35am) Posthuma
16:36 (10:36am) Larsson
16:37 (10:37am) Leipheimer
16:52 (10:52am) Grabsch
16:54 (10:54am) Millar
16:55 (10:55am) Freire
17:38 (11:38am) Zubeldia
17:46 (11:46am) Bruseghin
17:52 (11:52am) Cavendish
17:55 (11:55am) Gesink
17:56 (11:56am) F. Schleck
18:04 (12:04pm) Devolder
18:08 (12:08pm) Pereiro
18:14 (12:14pm) Zabriskie
18:17 (12:17pm) Kloden
18:24 (12:24pm) Boonen
18:28 (12:28pm) Iván Gutiérrez
18:30 (12:30pm) Nibali
18:32 (12:32pm) Rogers
18:34 (12:34pm) Vande Velde
18:35 (12:35pm) Clement
18:36 (12:36pm) A. Schleck
18:39 (12:39pm) Hushovd
18:41:30 (12:41:30pm) Gerdemann
18:43 (12:43pm) Moreau
18:44:30 (12:44:30pm) Karpets
18:46 (12:46pm) Chavanel
18:52 (12:52pm) Luis León Sánchez
18:55 (12:55pm) Pellizotti
18:56:30 (12:56:30pm) Efimkin
18:58 (12:58pm) Kirchen
18:59:30 (12:59:30pm) Astarloza
19:01 (1:01pm) Wiggins
19:02:30 (1:02:30pm) Menchov
19:04 (1:04pm) Cancellara
19:05:30 (1:05:30pm) Contador
19:07 (1:07pm) Evans
19:08:30 (1:08:30pm) Sastre

 

[LinkAge]

Why so early?

Why LA goes so early ?

maybe because he knows he doesn't have a chance against the big TT guys
and he wants to be in the lead until they start?

 

[BroDeal]

Why LA goes so early ?

maybe because he knows he doesn't have a chance against the big TT guys
and he wants to be in the lead until they start?

He wants him name displayed and mentioned during the TV coverage every time someone crosses the finish line until Spartacus rolls through.

Other than that I would guess that he wants to start the TdF by dipping his toe in the water, seeing how he stacks up against everyone else, but doing so in a manner where there is no pressure on himself. If he posts a good time then he's a hero. If he does not post a good time then he will fall back the excuse that he is there to support AC.

I think we saw in 2003 that Armstrong is a person who always wants an excuse for failure. I lost track of how many excuses he came up with as to why he might lose to Ullrich. He will do the same thing this Tour.

 

[Anonymous]

i think its probably got something more to do with the american tv networks.. what time does their coverage start...? 10am i bet...

Even the non-cycling fans can watch over breakfast... if he doesnt ride till 2 hours into the coverage they might get bored waiting..

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Fab will win.

However just came from the TAB (betting outlet in melbourne) with 3 (well actually 4, put $5 on devolder to take home the polka (about a $350 return, not bad) bets for the stage win.

Menchov - Put $10 on him, get about a $250 return.
Kruziger - Put $5, Get about a 250 return.
Gesink (haha, ridiculious bet i know) - Put $5, get about a $400 return.

WOOT!

Worst thing is tho, i cant even watch the stage live mates birthday tonight. Depressing!