TDU race thread

[RedheadDane]

Wow! You know it's the off-season when someone starts a thread for a sorry Aussies; rather unimportant race almost two months before it actually begins!

 

[Ferminal]

First time Haussler has done the TdU in a while (ever?), interesting to see how it affects his classics. Also maybe this means he will do the nationals too which would be good. Haas & Haussler could give maybe be a small threat to the other mob.

 

[just some guy]

2 more strong teams - TDU could be a good race if they race

PS Guess it means Ballan is still at BMC -

 

[maltiv]

BMC for Tour Down Under: Ballan, Roe, Blythe, Van Avermaet, Burghardt, Kohler, Quinziato

Really good team!

If only I were going to the race

EDIT: Here's the official release http://www.sbs.com.au/cyclingcentral/news/33759/BMC-Racing-Team-confirmed-for-TDU

Van Avarmaet could definitely be a candidate for the GC, he'll do well on the Willunga stage and probably get some bonus seconds (particularly on that uphill sprint stage, if it's still there...).

 

[El Pistolero]

First time Haussler has done the TdU in a while (ever?), interesting to see how it affects his classics. Also maybe this means he will do the nationals too which would be good. Haas & Haussler could give maybe be a small threat to the other mob.

I think Haussler, just like Boonen, need to start early next season to get into shape quicker because of their many injuries in the past.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Van Avarmaet could definitely be a candidate for the GC, he'll do well on the Willunga stage and probably get some bonus seconds (particularly on that uphill sprint stage, if it's still there...).

Not sure how he'll go on Wilunga but with the extra circuits on the Stirling stage he could do well if raced hard. If he comes with good form then yes he could do well in the overall standings.

 

[Ferminal]

Not sure how he'll go on Wilunga but with the extra circuits on the Stirling stage he could do well if raced hard. If he comes with good form then yes he could do well in the overall standings.

Ooh, I didn't realise that, looks like 1.5-2x more. That stage actually looks quite lumpy now, so maybe a few more sprinters out the back.

That's why I think the Stirling finish is the most important for many. Someone who wants to win the GC needs to take the bonuses on this stage, as a "pure climber' will probably take Wilunga plus a small gap.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Ooh, I didn't realise that, looks like 1.5-2x more. That stage actually looks quite lumpy now, so maybe a few more sprinters out the back.

That's why I think the Stirling finish is the most important for many. Someone who wants to win the GC needs to take the bonuses on this stage, as a "pure climber' will probably take Wilunga plus a small gap.

Yep, lets hope some teams race it hard like Caisse D'Epargne did in 2009.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Likely line-up for GreenEdge?

 

[auscyclefan94]

Likely line-up for GreenEdge?

It will only be made up of Australian riders imo.

Meyer
Goss
Bobridge
OGrady
Mcewen
Gerrans
Clarke

Just a guess.

 

[usedtobefast]

my take is, it is an early season stage race,in a great location. a great way to start your year,imo. the race is as hard as those guys want it to be,which is...
sort of hard. give or take. some good training miles for sure.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Awesome, start of the season

lucky you added that comma.

http://www.tour-sanluis.com.ar/

looking like the better race.

4 months to go. Till the start of the season that is

3

--

wilco's first race for the pro team, sure he'll have a quiet season.

 

[Panda Claws]

Have you seen the Worlds? Cancellara has certainly worked on his sprinting.

Gilbert indeed isn't that quick anymore, as was evidenced in San Remo. Now as for the other names you mention... Boonen: LOL. Hushovd, Freire: usually not quicker than Goss, maybe after 300 km but Goss can evidently handle that distance as well. Cav: totally out of form there.

You are kidding right. How do you expect Gilbert to win a sprint in Milan-Sanremo after a big attack. He still finished 3rd which is already good. By that logic Cancellara is a failing sprinter because he lost a sprint to Chavanel and Nuyens.

About the worlds, I actually got the feeling that Gilbert did not try his best. (Cancellara was impressive but he always sprints like that if he does not attack during the race. Look at Milan-Sanremo.)
You need to remember that Gilbert is currently considered 'unbeatable' and if he were to try to go all the way in the worlds and finish 7th or something then that might hurt that image. While finishing 17th can be explained in 2 ways.

1. He was not in top form ( probably right )
2. He did not even try 100% ( that is what I believe )


So now instead of everyone thinking: oh wow Gilbert got beat.

He can now say: "I was not in top form and the course sucked. " (Which is true.)

With all these winning he has done people tend to forget that he was never even a favorite for this worlds.

For you non Belgians out there:

At first there was optimism in our newspapers because of the incline on the end. Then some riders went to check out the course and when they returned the first thing they said was among the lines of "Gilbert is no favorite."

 

[gustienordic]

It will only be made up of Australian riders imo.

Meyer
Goss
Bobridge
OGrady
Mcewen
Gerrans
Clarke

Just a guess.

Goss, Meyer, or Bobridge for GC?

 

[auscyclefan94]

Goss, Meyer, or Bobridge for GC?

Goss. Don't see how Meyer will get such leeway this year and I don't rate him that highly as a climber (yet). Goss will have to minimise his losses like last year but the Wilunga Hill was raced quite timidly this year considering some guys who aren't overly good climbers where the guys going up the road.

 

[greenedge]

It will only be made up of Australian riders imo.

Meyer
Goss
Bobridge
OGrady
Mcewen
Gerrans
Clarke

Just a guess.

I would send Impey as well if only so they have an ace to send up Willunga. They might also try showcase off Teklehainamot as well and maybe Albasini. Instead of Gerrans i might also send Howard, so he has the same program as McEwen ( Clarke would probably go better than Gerrans on Willunga )

 

[greenedge]

Hermans is ok, he could possibly develop into a good stage hunter/small hill climber. Bobridge can climb ok if he has the inclination and Porte did survive the Giro.

@PandaClaws i think it was a combination of the 2 for Gilberts' lack of interest.

 

[greenedge]

First time Haussler has done the TdU in a while (ever?), interesting to see how it affects his classics. Also maybe this means he will do the nationals too which would be good. Haas & Haussler could give maybe be a small threat to the other mob.

And Hoff and Morton.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I would send Impey as well if only so they have an ace to send up Willunga. They might also try showcase off Teklehainamot as well and maybe Albasini. Instead of Gerrans i might also send Howard, so he has the same program as McEwen ( Clarke would probably go better than Gerrans on Willunga )

I think for their first major race, Tour Down Under (which is Australia's biggest bike race) they will send a completely Australian team.

 

[daveinzambia]

I think for their first major race, Tour Down Under (which is Australia's biggest bike race) they will send a completely Australian team.

i agree, partly because most of them are already in country. if they do have a non-Aussie on the team they definitely will not be riding as team leader.

 

[Tuarts]

And Hoff and Morton.

If GE can't do a "Sky" at the Nats it will be extremely lol-worthy.

 

[just some guy]

If GE can't do a "Sky" at the Nats it will be extremely lol-worthy.

I would quite like The Hussler to win I guess he has a team of 3 now.

 

[Kwibus]

If GE can't do a "Sky" at the Nats it will be extremely lol-worthy.

I don't agree. They will be favourites, but it's not comparable with Sky. Sky have the best 10 english cyclists in their team, while GE doesn't have Haussler or Evans for example.
GE should win, but it's not the same as Sky in England.

 

[Tuarts]

So? Haussler is comparable in talent to ~5 other Aussies. Evans hasn't ridden the Nats since...? Garmin were able to Dominate last year with just the Meyers + Bobridge, with 15 riders eligible I'd expect a bit more dominance from GE.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I don't agree. They will be favourites, but it's not comparable with Sky. Sky have the best 10 english cyclists in their team, while GE doesn't have Haussler or Evans for example.
GE should win, but it's not the same as Sky in England.

The non GreenEdge riders really should make an alliance but that doesn't seem likely and even if they did they would struggle to beat a 15 man team. It would be not good for GE if they beat in their first race as a team but it seems unlikely. If Cadel turned up to the nats then I think it would be interesting to see 5 or so GreenEdge riders trying to jump on his wheel on Mount Bunningyong while he is attacking them!