In 2009, I believed that it was not possible to win the tour undoped in the Lance Armstrong era. Quality investigative journalism? yeah whatevs dude. You and big ring are taking a comment from 2009 massively out of context and twisting it into a lie about my thoughts on the state of pro cycling at a time point 3yrs into the future.The Hitch said:
Since 2009, something has changed, in the last 2yrs we have seen some of the slowest times up numerous historic mtn climbs for over 15yrs from the top 5 GC contenders. This is the simple truth and the evidence is plain for the world to see. So maybe its just a coincidence that in 2008 the biopassport came into effect and in early 2011 WADA opened its first cases based on biopassport results, maybe not. It's actually irrelevant.
What is relevant is the fact that if we place the 2012 TdF performance of Wiggins and Froome into any tour from 1995 through to 2007, they would have been back in the pack, minutes down on the leaders on every mtn stage.
In 2009, my opinion was that to beat LA in any tour from 1999-2005 required performances that are considered physiologically impossible by experts the world over. I stand by that opinion. In 2012, experts the world over believe the performance of Wiggins and Froome are physiologically possible without PEDs. I agree with those experts. No one, myself included, has categorically stated that Sky are not doping.
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Krebs cycle said:Oh noes, the mighty UK Postal Sky Train with its systematic team doping program could only manage a paltry 5th place in the Vuelta TTT. Its almost EXACTLY the same as USPS when they WON the TTT at the tour in 2003, 2004, 2005, and came 2nd in 2000 and 2002 or when they WON the TTT in the Vuelta in 2004, and came 2nd in 2002.
Somebody please call the WADA and the UCI and tell them there are ALIENS at the Vuelta and this EXTRATERRESTRIAL performance which DOMINATED the rest of the field must be stopped for the sake of the sport. Maybe you can explain to them they need to be working on test for SECRET ALIEN DNA because well der, obviously the biopassport doesn't flag it as suspicious. But we know better, we know suspicious when we see it don't we boys?
Krebs, some of your posts are quite good. Then you write this childish drivel and I am not sure if you are drunk or just an enormous DB. Right, a handful of seconds off the pace, not the Sky A-Team, and a focus of climbers. I am sure the Froomster is crapping his pants right about now.
The Vuelta is an afterthought for Sky my friend. If Froome is competitive for this race after the TdF and Olympics, it will say a great deal. Even with mega-dope, going from one GT to the Olympics to another GT would be a pretty interesting feat.
Oh ya ...
Ripper, I'm poking fun at the childish drivel that others write. All this business about extraterrestrial for example. Don't read anything more into it than that.
edit: regarding the Vuelta and Froome, I won't be surprised if Froome is on the podium or in the top 5. As I stated above, something has changed in the past 2yrs, so I don't believe we can properly compare the peak blood manipulation era (ie: early 90s through to about 2007). In those years (esp after 2000 when the EPO test was introduced) it was not possible to sustain such high levels of performance because PEDs were required to compete at the highest level and perhaps it was more risky or logistically difficult (eg: due to lack of homologous blood supplies) to maintain an entire season of PEDs. Therefore, teams and riders targeted one specific GT per season. We are so used to seeing this over the last 10-15yrs some people seem to have forgotten what was achieved in the pre EPO era in which Merckx, Hinault, Fignon, Roche, Delgado, Lemond, Zoetemelk and Thévenet ALL achieved podium placings in two GTs in one season and some achieved top 5 placings on multiple occasions. If you cannot sustain form for that long without EPO or blood doping then how did so many riders do it pre EPO? There is nothing within changes in technology or team tactics that can explain that. Lemond is the anti-doping hero of this forum, so how did "Mr Clean" manage to sustain his form for 2 GTs in one season in both '85 and '86 if it isn't possible?
edit part 2: I just went all the way back to 1960 and there were only 2 tdf winners (Van Impe and Aimar) that didn't achieve a top 5 placing in two GTs within a season in their career. I haven't checked the number of years in total that it happened, but compared with pre EPO history, it looks to me as though it would actually be MORE suspicious if Froome didn't get a top 5 place in the Vuelta.
edit: regarding the Vuelta and Froome, I won't be surprised if Froome is on the podium or in the top 5. As I stated above, something has changed in the past 2yrs, so I don't believe we can properly compare the peak blood manipulation era (ie: early 90s through to about 2007). In those years (esp after 2000 when the EPO test was introduced) it was not possible to sustain such high levels of performance because PEDs were required to compete at the highest level and perhaps it was more risky or logistically difficult (eg: due to lack of homologous blood supplies) to maintain an entire season of PEDs. Therefore, teams and riders targeted one specific GT per season. We are so used to seeing this over the last 10-15yrs some people seem to have forgotten what was achieved in the pre EPO era in which Merckx, Hinault, Fignon, Roche, Delgado, Lemond, Zoetemelk and Thévenet ALL achieved podium placings in two GTs in one season and some achieved top 5 placings on multiple occasions. If you cannot sustain form for that long without EPO or blood doping then how did so many riders do it pre EPO? There is nothing within changes in technology or team tactics that can explain that. Lemond is the anti-doping hero of this forum, so how did "Mr Clean" manage to sustain his form for 2 GTs in one season in both '85 and '86 if it isn't possible?
edit part 2: I just went all the way back to 1960 and there were only 2 tdf winners (Van Impe and Aimar) that didn't achieve a top 5 placing in two GTs within a season in their career. I haven't checked the number of years in total that it happened, but compared with pre EPO history, it looks to me as though it would actually be MORE suspicious if Froome didn't get a top 5 place in the Vuelta.
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AcademyCC said:
Great post and massive.chapeau for not.dismissing ideas simply because they are unpleasant.
I always believed the way people behave and what they say can be revealing to the discussion.and.this.is.something that is.often overlooked. It doesn't.mean that all riders who behave a certain way are dopers, as some will try to spin it, but that it is suspicious for supposedly anti doping athletes to.hold strong allegiances to people like.mcquaid and especially Armstrong.
lol ok, so a world record holder and 9x gold medal winner at olympic and world championship level is not a "top bike rider"?The Hitch said:
Yawn. The real question is how it is possible that a human being can be given an answer to a question so many times and keep ignoring it. This forum has to be the biggest broken down record I've ever come across on the internet.
Krebs cycle said:
So Nibali was just getting training plans in 2010?
Contador 2008... Oh and 2011
thehog said:
Straws, clutching at. All the teams rode the same course, its a level playing field.
It's sad though we have fallen into the trap of if they win they're doping, if they don't they're clean. So determined to denigrate Shy's performance yet it doesn't quite fit does it?
As someone said, broken record, Or as Homer said, you're damned if you do and damned if you don't
lrn2read. When did Nibali ever win the Tdf?Ferminal said:So Nibali was just getting training plans in 2010?
Contador 2008... Oh and 2011
Anyway, this following post could either here or over in the thread about what to expect from Froome in the Vuelta, but seeing as I'm here lets do this.
This is a list of every TdF winner since 1960 and the place they achieved in another GT in the same year. In the event that a rider either DNE or DNF then I checked to see if they ever achieved a top 5 place twice within a season at any point in their career
Lets look at the pre EPO era first. In the 30yrs between 1960 and 1990, there were 21 occasions in which the tdf winner completed another GT in the same season...
A dual podium place was achieved 15 times
A dual top ten was achieved 4 times
Greg Lemond bombed the giro twice but then went on to win the tdf
Only 2 cyclists (Aimar and Van Impe) did not achieve a dual top 5 GC place within a single season, yet they both achieved dual top 10 finishes.
Now lets look at the restricted EPO era (ie: following the introduction of the EPO test in 2000. Nb: to clarify, following 2000, EPO use did not stop completely but the methods changed to microdosing and transfusions).
Nobody even achieved a dual top 10 finish within a season except Sastre and Evans.
So to summarize, in the last 50yrs the only cyclists to have won the tour de france that have NOT achieved a dual top 10 placing in consecutive GTs within a season are the following....
Armstrong
Riis
Ullrich
Contador
Schleck
Pereiro (can pretty much ignore this for the freak accident effect that yr)
What a list eh?
Krebs cycle said:Somebody please call the WADA and the UCI and tell them there are ALIENS at the Vuelta and this EXTRATERRESTRIAL performance which DOMINATED the rest of the field must be stopped for the sake of the sport. Maybe you can explain to them they need to be working on test for SECRET ALIEN DNA because well der, obviously the biopassport doesn't flag it as suspicious. But we know better, we know suspicious when we see it don't we boys?
We don't know their biopassports aren't suspicious, in fact we know from the leaked suspicion list that many of the current Sky riders had suspicious values in 2010. All we know is that the values aren't suspicious enough to start proceedings on*, but judging by Armstrongs 2009 values that's a forgiving standard.
* And we actually only even know that if we discount the conspiracy theories.
Krebs cycle said:
Bradley is a world record holder and 5x gold medal winner at olympic and world championship level for an individual event that lasts 4 minutes.
2 other gold medals are for 4 minute events ridden by a TEAM - ie you don't do it all yourself.
1 final gold medal is from the madison, for a distance of 50km. On an indoor, wooden track. With no wind, hills, pot holes, descents or dogs. Where after you do an effort, you literally stop riding for a bit and let the other guy race for you. Teamed with the best road sprinter in the world - Mark Cavendish.
When will you, an alleged scientist, stop and consider your arguments are about as scientific as a conspiracy theory.
JimmyFingers said:
And Cobo, last year's Vuelta winner, got dropped. Froome didn't, and he's spent a lot more energy at the Tour this year.
Umm yeah thanks again genius. Are you still playing that broken down record and ignoring the critical power model of human energetics? What you think is a "conspiracy theory" is what every exercise physiology lecturer or professor on the entire planet teaches their students. Pretty much any exercise science undergrad student on the entire planet would be able to understand what you evidently cannot. Maybe you should call up the American College of Sports Medicine and tell them that all the textbooks are wrong.... it's all a conspiracy theory!the big ring said:
So when will you, not a practicing sport scientist, not even a sport science uni graduate, accept the fact you know very little about human energetics and instead of trying to prove that pigs fly backwards, just do a little bit of reading on the subject of human energy systems. You never know, you might just learn something interesting.
Krebs cycle said:
I notice your post here does not introduce a single relevant fact into this discussion.
If by saying Brad can IP well you are implying he has a good VO2max (and I reiterate you have NEVER provided a SINGLE PHYSIOLOGICAL reason for his good IP performance), my response would simply be: big deal.
Power at threshold is important for a road rider, not VO2max. And that power is a combination of efficiency and the % of VO2max sustainable for prolonged periods of time.
Neither of which are even guessable from IP results.
If only we had someone who knew what they were talking about here, who could back up their "Olympic results" oriented argument with some hard, scientific fact, without dismissing anyone who is not a member of their esoteric circle.
Do you want to have an adult discussion or do you want to blabber on about conspiracy theories? The fact you made an effort here suggests the former so I'll work with you ok.the big ring said:
Yes, efficiency and lactate threshold are important, but VO2max is also. A simple calculation will illustrate why...
For now, lets assume efficiency is the same for cyclist A and cyclist B.
Cyclist A has a VO2max of 85ml/kg and a LT of 80% VO2max. That is a VO2 at LT of 68 ml/kg
Cyclist B has a VO2max of 80ml/kg and a LT of 83% VO2max. That is a VO2 at LT of 66.4 ml/kg.
So despite the fact that cyclist B has a higher %LT, they have a lower VO2 at their lactate threshold because cyclist A has a higher VO2max. If efficiency is the same for both cyclists, then cyclist A produces more power at LT.
Please don't try to argue this with me. Just accept that this is textbook stuff or go here, download the fulltext pdf article and read it.
The bit in bold is WRONG.the big ring said:
Click here and follow some links and do some reading. Here is something to wet your appetite....
I've just posted links to 2 excellent starting points from the scientific literature. So stop your trolling crap and get on with the reading.
here is a slightly more recent article which is also a great starting point....
Andrew Jones (2nd author) is a world renowned exercise scientist. These guys aren't science hacks.
Andrew Jones (2nd author) is a world renowned exercise scientist. These guys aren't science hacks.
The bit in bold is something I have been talking about since day dot of this entire discussion. The critical power model is also something I have been talking about since the beginning. So don't give me this crap about never posting any physiological reason why a world class IP could successfully convert to road racing. You took the time to search my posts from 3yrs ago to find an out of context quote about LA but you won't even read up a little bit about some of the concepts I have been trying to explain.
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HEnce you are such a great scientist, please endulge us trolls with a simple analysis of Brad Wiggins Road Racing Carreer. From the autobus to GT winner. No climbing ability, prologue specialist, that I will give him. Do you have any numbers on Brad? His weight is even kept a secret, so?Krebs cycle said:
How did the good man, I kinda like Wiggo to be honest, transform himself to a fourth place in 2009, just behind 'known' dopers?
That's the main issue imho.
Not saying Nibali is mister clean but when u look at his track record you can clearly see the man had potential with capitol P. When guys like Ritchie Porte wheels him in like he is on a sunday morning training ride one might ask some questions.
I will break it down really simply, and see if you can follow:
Please note:
1. You still have not provided a SINGLE PHYSIOLOGICAL reason why someone good at IP would be good at winning a grand tour.
2. I stand by my original claim that IP results do not allow you to guess someone's efficiency or FTP.
3. How can the CP model apply when you have ONE DATA POINT - a result in an IP?
4. Please point to a SINGLE post where you EXPLAIN anything? Posting a link to a study is NOT explaining something.
We are not talking about the TTs Brad has done on the road, or the mountain stage he won in 2005, his GT performance in 2009 or 2012 or anything else. We are ONLY talking about what you posted upthread: that someone who can win an IP at the olympics or WC 5x should be considered a GT contender. To wit:
Let me reiterate:
a. you cannot guess someone's efficiency based on their ability to win an IP
b. you cannot guess somsone's FTP based on their ability to win an IP
The bit in bold is CORRECT.
the big ring said:
Krebs cycle said:
Please note:
1. You still have not provided a SINGLE PHYSIOLOGICAL reason why someone good at IP would be good at winning a grand tour.
2. I stand by my original claim that IP results do not allow you to guess someone's efficiency or FTP.
3. How can the CP model apply when you have ONE DATA POINT - a result in an IP?
4. Please point to a SINGLE post where you EXPLAIN anything? Posting a link to a study is NOT explaining something.
We are not talking about the TTs Brad has done on the road, or the mountain stage he won in 2005, his GT performance in 2009 or 2012 or anything else. We are ONLY talking about what you posted upthread: that someone who can win an IP at the olympics or WC 5x should be considered a GT contender. To wit:
Krebs cycle said:
Let me reiterate:
a. you cannot guess someone's efficiency based on their ability to win an IP
b. you cannot guess somsone's FTP based on their ability to win an IP
The bit in bold is CORRECT.
Krebs cycle said:
As is weight uphill and a combination of weight and height in a flat TT. Your "explanation" is too simplistic to explain anything about Brad's GT (uphill and TT) ability based on IP results.
We also know that efficiency and VO2max appear to be inversely related - so saying "assume efficiency is the same" seems remiss of someone with a PhD in exercise physiology.
In fact, efficiency is more important than VO2max, correct?
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