JimmyFingers said:
I just want to know whether a rider's performance is set in stone throughout his career, because you make a lot of early results from Wiggins compared to his present form.
I believe once you hit your genetic potential, it's not changing much. I believe that takes 3-5 years to achieve full-time. I believe Brad hit it in 2004, given his IP time in 2008 was identical.
JimmyFingers said:
You've also previously stated that it is impossible for a track rider to do well on the road because Wiggins is the only rider to have successfully done it.
What I have said is, if he was any good on the road, he would have displayed this ability before 2009, all those years he rode as a pro. All his road wins were accidental or luck.
JimmyFingers said:
Also calling Wiggins an 'average fish' on the track is plain ridiculous. It may fit your paradigm but several gold medals at the Olympics as well as at the World Championships.
I gave sufficient information to answer this, that you must have missed, but you are polite and I am prepared to explain in a different way. And to clarify: Wiggins was an average world-level (roadie) fish in the tiny pond of 4km IP riders.
Brad was World and Olympic champion on the track in the 4km pursuit in 2004 and 2008. To do this, he rode at an average of ~580W.
There is a 4km TT on the road in 2006. Brad is competing, as are a host of professional bike riders. Brad is the only World and Olympic champion at this 4km distance
on the track competing on the day. He is averaging 580W in training in the lead up to the TT.
Everyone else trains for 200+km multi-stage races. This stage is not all that important to them.
Brad is training exclusively for this stage, with a team of assistants devoted to helping him, spending 2 weeks in Mallorca to train for this single, 4km TT road stage.
Who will win this 4km road TT?
A. The current and future World and Olympic champion at 4km IP? OR
B. Some roadie who trains for 200+km/day stage races?
Answer: Brad came 21st. To win, he would have needed to ride at approximately 630W. (ie 10% more power)
Now stick the first 20 riders from that race on the track, give them the same amount of BC style support and funding and let them focus purely on the IP event, and tell me they won't pound Brad into the ground in a 4km IP.
2 years later, Brad is still only averaging ~580W for the 4km IP.