Team Ineos (Formerly the Sky thread)

[will10]

Not to mention the 2005 TT was as twisty as any in a recent GT apart from Cinque Terre in '09.

 

[Mellow Velo]

<Obi-Wan-Hog> Those are not the TT profiles you are looking for

Here's a genuine fact: 94 riders rode the final 2012 ITT faster than Lance 2005.
Hoggie poo just the same as moo poo.

 

[thehog]

Serious numbers indeed. Just as well they're not climbing as fast or ITT'ing like Lance.

The times are slower. They are I tell you. Cycling has repaired itself.

Things are different now.

That was 10-15 years ago.

It's changed

It's nice having 7 people chime in with each post I write.

Always an answer.... Just in the nick of time

 

[will10]

Serious numbers indeed. Just as well they're not climbing as fast or ITT'ing like Lance.

The times are slower. They are I tell you. Cycling has repaired itself.

Things are different now.

That was 10-15 years ago.

It's changed

It's nice having 7 people chime in with each post I write.

Always an answer.... Just in the nick of time

Average speed is a pointless measure comparing across TTs. The Saint-Etienne TT from 2005 was a twisty circuit. The Chartres TT of 2012 was more-or-less straight out with no return leg. Might be worth noting the huge gaps behind Wiggins even when comapred with a comfortable LA win in '05 (http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=21643 vs. http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=2588), but you cannot draw any meaningful conclusions from the winner's average speed alone.

Case in point: Ruben Plaza averaged 56.22 km/h for 38.9km in the one-way, slightly downhill, tailwind final ITT of 2005. Cancellara averaged 51.2km/h to win the final ITT in 2010. Which was the better ride? Contador averaged a mere 46.8km/h for that same 52km when the headwind got up in the final TT of 2010, but that was good enough to win the Tour.

 

[taiwan]

I don't think the win was ensured (assured). If you make the assumption that it was, then the win is *necessarily corrupt. That's a pretty big assumption to make as the first step in your argument, but it is a fallacy that abounds in this thread.

* necessary, employed here in its philosophical usage.

However, all of this is possible. Sky doping is possible, Sky buying off every cycling institution involved is possible.

Likely? No.

Possible? Yes.

Stranger things have happened than a sporting event being fixed.

For the win to be LITERALLY ensured would be impossible. On the other hand, if all that was done was to make a TT heavy parcours, that wouldn't be enough. What I'm suggesting is that Sky were allowed to use stuff (within limits) and others weren't. Considering what happened in the 1990s, that would do the trick, and all but hand your boy the win. From early on in the race there was little question who would win. It stank.

"Buying off" institutions who are vocally backing you including those which are known to be corrupt in exactly that way, may not actually be that expensive.

 

[thehog]

Average speed is a pointless measure comparing across TTs. The Saint-Etienne TT from 2005 was a twisty circuit. The Chartres TT of 2012 was more-or-less straight out with no return leg.

Case in point: Ruben Plaza averaged 56.22 km/h for 38.9km in the one-way, slightly downhill, tailwind final ITT of 2005. Cancellara averaged 51.2km/h to win the final ITT in 2010. Which was the better ride? Contador averaged a mere 46.8km/h for that same 52km when the headwind got up in the final TT of 2010, but that was good enough to win the Tour.

I actually agree with you. I'm just teasing all those who kept saying "the times are slower, the watts are down" because they're not.

It's very hard to compare from year to year. I just think its funny watching how others react. Shows they're not thinking about this logically.

The only real test is your own eyes and how the opposition can respond.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Nice, sensible explanation Will.
More than was deserved.

 

[sniper]

I actually agree with you. I'm just teasing all those who kept saying "the times are slower, the watts are down" because they're not.

+1
the "cycling is so much cleaner now"-company uses this argument when it suits them, dismisses it when it doesn't suit them.

Fact is that Wiggins 2012 didn't publish his passport data.
If he had, we'd finally have something to really compare Wiggo with Lance and put an end to all speculation.

 

[Joachim]

Stranger things have happened than a sporting event being fixed.

Very true, and yes...it's possible.

Couple of points though. Remember, bar the Olympics and World Cup Football, it is the biggest sporting event in the world. I guess you could argue that makes corruption more likely, but I can't see that it would make it easier.

Secondly, there doesn't seem to be a precedent for this. The, as yet unproven, *accusations of Lance and the UCI are totally different. They weren't about the ASO allowing Armstrong to dope and catching everyone else, they were about the UCI covering up a suspicious test result in a relatively minor race with a payment coming later.

No precedent does not make it impossible, but it would be an incredibly bold move to make given the fed level heat on Armstrong.

Think about it, drug-taints and corruption have reduced the TdF to a farce, so the organisers play a game of everything-or-bust. If the ASO did do this and it came out (which it would), no more ASO, no more TdF. That's some stakes.

Likely?

From early on in the race there was little question who would win.

Only if you believed all the hype

* which I totally believe btw

 

[Mellow Velo]

I actually agree with you. I'm just teasing all those who kept saying "the times are slower, the watts are down" because they're not.

It's very hard to compare from year to year. I just think its funny watching how others react. Shows they're not thinking about this logically.

The only real test is your own eyes and how the opposition can respond.

So, how about instead of posting something that looks suspiciously like a piece of blatant baiting, you post Lance's watts from that 2005 ITT, along with Wiggo-Froome's for the 2012?

Obviously, you must have them available to make the claim you have, above.

 

[sniper]

Stranger things have happened than a sporting event being fixed.

For the win to be LITERALLY ensured would be impossible. On the other hand, if all that was done was to make a TT heavy parcours, that wouldn't be enough. What I'm suggesting is that Sky were allowed to use stuff (within limits) and others weren't. Considering what happened in the 1990s, that would do the trick, and all but hand your boy the win. From early on in the race there was little question who would win. It stank.

"Buying off" institutions who are vocally backing you including those which are known to be corrupt in exactly that way, may not actually be that expensive.

+1

Look at what Phat said in his latest 'interview'. He said "we should measure cycling by the Olympic Games".
Now what exactly was it that made cycling at the Games such a big success...

UCI simply had a lot invested in Sky winning the TdF.
Nobody's talking bribes here in the literal, old school sense of the word.
Bribes really aren't necessary to understand how UCI and ASO could profit generously from a Sky victory.

 

[King Of The Wolds]

It's nice having 7 people chime in with each post I write.

Here you go again. There were 3, and one of those was Will10, a fellow sceptic.

In the interests of good science though, it might be nice to see the average winning speed of all long TTs in WT events from 2000 onwards. You can't take single TTs in isolation, but around a dozen (?) each year should give us some reasonable data to compare as representative samples.

 

[the sceptic]

So, how about instead of posting something that looks suspiciously like a piece of blatant baiting, you post Lance's watts from that 2005 ITT, along with Wiggo-Froome's for the 2012?

Obviously, you must have them available to make the claim you have, above.

Wiggo did 480 watts at the olympics according to some. Not sure what Lance did though.

 

[King Of The Wolds]

Wiggo did 480 watts at the olympics according to some. Not sure what Lance did though.

Source? And was that touched 480 or averaged 480 for the hour?

 

[taiwan]

Very true, and yes...it's possible.

Couple of points though. Remember, bar the Olympics and World Cup Football, it is the biggest sporting event in the world. I guess you could argue that makes corruption more likely, but I can't see that it would make it easier.

Secondly, there doesn't seem to be a precedent for this. The, as yet unproven, *accusations of Lance and the UCI are totally different. They weren't about the ASO allowing Armstrong to dope and catching everyone else, they were about the UCI covering up a suspicious test result in a relatively minor race with a payment coming later.

No precedent does not make it impossible, but it would be an incredibly bold move to make given the fed level heat on Armstrong.

Think about it, drug-taints and corruption have reduced the TdF to a farce, so the organisers play a game of everything-or-bust. If the ASO did do this and it came out (which it would), no more ASO, no more TdF. That's some stakes.

Likely?



Only if you believed all the hype

* which I totally believe btw

As you noted, if you're citing football and the Olympics, you're making my argument for me.

To the second point, you're welcome to hold on to "unproven", but you should include Hamilton's allegations of a close/improper relationship between Armstrong and Hein Verbruggen. With the TDS payoff, do you reckon that was a service available to everyone?

You're misrepresenting ASO's situation. Their event is running very low on credibility. They can hardly afford to have another dirty winner. What they need is to guarantee a "believeable" winner, and I think that's what they did with the british household name Wiggins. But yes there are stakes on eventual discovery also. It's just that an unpredictably race is not desirable for an organiser whose repuation is looking very tatty. If you like, the stakes were too high NOT to manage the race's outcome.

And finally, the 2012 Tour was just not an open race. At the time or with hindsight, Sky had it locked down - it's not a controversial view to take. It's just a matter of how it was done.

 

[BroDeal]

+1

Look at what Phat said in his latest 'interview'. He said "we should measure cycling by the Olympic Games".
Now what exactly was it that made cycling at the Games such a big success...

UCI simply had a lot invested in Sky winning the TdF.
Nobody's talking bribes here in the literal, old school sense of the word.
Bribes really aren't necessary to understand how UCI and ASO could profit generously from a Sky victory.

When lots of most players in a system have a vested interest in something happening, it is amazing how often it happens. It is like Adam Smith's invisible hand in action. No collusion is necessary. Everyone makes decisions independently that increase the chances.

Then again, one has to wonder why Sky and the ASO got together so the team could present its riders' blood values. It is almost as if everyone wanted to know that the plan was on track. Then there was McQuaid telling people he would not be able to attend Sky's victory party for the Tour win weeks before Wiggins won.

 

[Benotti69]

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/sky-meeting-with-aso-is-routine-team-says

I believe the PR of Sky as much as I believed the PR from Bruyneel/Stapleton.

 

[Fearless Greg Lemond]

+1
the "cycling is so much cleaner now"-company uses this argument when it suits them, dismisses it when it doesn't suit them.

Why would a team go bragging about 'being clean'? Isn't that - sporting clean -what sport is all about?

Clean cycling is the new 'green energy', hell, even the Americans are buying little Japanese cars now instead of the Hummers. Just repeat something often enough, people will eventually believe it, guess who invented this?

 

[Mellow Velo]

Wiggo did 480 watts at the olympics according to some. Not sure what Lance did though.

Yes, I read that somewhere on here, too.
I believe that was his max threshold, but for how long, I know not.

 

[the sceptic]

Yes, I read that somewhere on here, too.
I believe that was his max threshold, but for how long, I know not.

No, im pretty sure that is the average power for the whole event.

http://www.cyclingpowerlab.com/ProRaceAnalysis.aspx

 

[thehog]

+1
the "cycling is so much cleaner now"-company uses this argument when it suits them, dismisses it when it doesn't suit them.

Fact is that Wiggins 2012 didn't publish his passport data.
If he had, we'd finally have something to really compare Wiggo with Lance and put an end to all speculation.

Exactly my point.

Funny thing in 2011 Wiggins whilst dissing Landis and telling us Lance is the most tested an innocent Bradley also said;

"“I think they should make these things public,” he said.

“The whole blood passport should be on [the] internet, every rider in the peloton. I don’t see why it shouldn’t be. It’s got to that stage now where if there’s nothing to hide why aren’t they up there? You can pull up in any walk of life, company accounts, people’s tax and that’s public knowledge, so I don’t see why the blood passport shouldn’t be public knowledge. It will silence people or challenge certain things but I don’t see what harm it would do. It would give you credibility in the public’s eyes … but I don’t think everyone would agree to it, maybe for moral reasons or people thinking that it might be an invasion of privacy.”"

 

[Benotti69]

Why would a team go bragging about 'being clean'? Isn't that - sporting clean -what sport is all about?

Clean cycling is the new 'green energy', hell, even the Americans are buying little Japanese cars now instead of the Hummers. Just repeat something often enough, people will eventually believe it, guess who invented this?

Guess who has been trying to perfect it in cycling, Sky, Garmin, UCI, ASO.....

 

[BroDeal]

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/sky-meeting-with-aso-is-routine-team-says

“We do it every year, and we actually meet with ASO twice a year. We started doing that in 2009 before we were really a team and we presented the five-year programme to them. We showed them what we wanted to do in terms of changing the face of the sport within the UK and then also showed them how the track programme had come about - our no stone unturned philosophy,” Sky’s spokesperson told Cyclingnews.

And now we know why the Tour routes have been neutered the since 2009. The presentation undoubtedly came with estimates for media revenue growth the ASO could expect if road cycling increased viewership in the UK. The ASO has been planning on a British winner for years.

 

[thehog]

And now we know why the Tour routes have been neutered the since 2009. The presentation undoubtedly came with estimates for media revenue growth the ASO could expect if road cycling increased viewership in the UK. The ASO has been planning on a British winner for years.

And next year a Canadian winner..... the we'll see if we can get a South African. A New Zealander the maybe an Aussie again.

Froome might need to repatriate back to Kenya so cycling can be expanded into new frontiers giving him a victory.

 

[ChrisE]

... Just repeat something often enough, people will eventually believe it, guess who invented this?

Foxnews for $100, Alex.