But what if Vingegaard isn't feeling too well tomorrow for whatever reason and he loses 0:30-0:45 to Pogačar? Suddenly it wouldn't be so unthinkable that he could lose the Tour in the ITT, would it? Why should he be one crash or puncture away from losing the Tour when he could just... not be?
More importantly, do you realize how idiotic Jumbo would look if they lost another Tour to Pogačar on the last day after an unlikely good ITT just because they didn't expect anything unexpected to happen? They'd never hear the end of it, I'd be mortified. Sure, most of the time nothing unexpected happens, that's why it's unexpected. It's still silly to leave yourself open like this, especially when Jumbo has paid for the very same mistake several times in the past.
I don't think the Clinic explosion of 2020 was any consolation for Roglič.