I’m curious as to the team they will build around Mas for the Tour without Valverde and Soler or any co-leaders. Right now the only confirmed (or speculated) are Verona and Oliveira. Though not announced yet, I’m sure García Cortina considering his value as well as Aranburu
Locks:
Mas
Verona
Oliviera
Not confirmed but my guess:
Gorka Izaguirre
Garcia Cortina
Aranburu
That leaves spots for the rest. Assuming Rojas and Irviti race the Giro/Vuelta combo with Valverde. Sosa is unlikely since he is targeting the Giro as alternative to Valverde.
Gorka is obvious unless he just doesn’t want to ride the TDF.
Arcas was on the team last year and seemed to be held in high regard. Right now, this team lacks help in the high mountains. Verona is one of the best in the world, but he’s not going to make it past the final 8 selection unless he was in the breakaway.
Other than that will they take one of Irviti/Rojas? This team looks very young on paper. The last two TDFs with Mas in the periphery of the GC, Valverde was irreplaceable. Verona was injured the whole Tour while Lopez stunk, so Valverde was able to serve both as the guy who stayed with Mas through the final selection as well as road captain.
So with the final spots... Oliviera is older and experienced to serve as captain on this very young/green team. If Gorka goes to the TdF, he could easily do it as well as survive up front in the mountains.
That leaves 2 spots. Is Jorgensen ready after being impressive last year? Will Barta has proven himself capable, if not an elite domestique. I was surprised that EF let him go (guess he doesn’t do enough gravel or independent rides for their taste). I doubt either ends up riding the TDF (though I could see Jorgensen based on his talent going if they feel he is ready, but they may want to give him another year before that).
Pedrero is a Movistar lifer who is obviously good enough to ride the Tour and be strong in the high mountains, but he has ridden the Giro for the last few years (and done moderately well).
You also have Muhlberger and Oscar Rodriguez. I would guess that Oscar is likely to ride the Tour. He was supposed to sign two years back as kind of a package with Enric but then the Aquadro thing happened and he seemed like wasted surplus at Astana. Muhlberger was sick/injured all year. He was signed with some fanfare the prior year, so one would think that he will be wanting to prove himself.
Last year Arcas was one the Tour roster and I remember him riding well. While this year there isn’t anticipated drama of having a star like Lopez on the team, but despite losing MA, it seems like this is a much deeper squad than last year and I’m not sure that Arcas doesn’t have the potential of Oscar or Muhlberger.
Of course there is always the chance that Bala changes his mind and decides to ride all 3 GTs again (Extremely unlikely, but this is Movistar we are talking about). I guess Sosa could also go to the TDF, but he’s still pretty young and may want to go to the Vuelta.
Without Soler/Lopez and with Valverde focusing on the Giro/Vuelta combo, the team isn’t as top heavy but their seems to be a lot more depth. You could say it’s a risk building completely around Mas, but until Ayuso is old enough to shave or Oscar Rodriguez leaves Ineos, Mas is the best Spanish GC rider in the peloton for the near future. He’s proven capable of being a podium threat in the GTs, but this is the year he not only needs to show that he can hang with the best until Tadej/Roglic attack, but that he can compete with them. He seemed on his way at La Vuelta and still finished in the Top 2. He was hampered the last week after a hard crash, but at least he finished the race without throwing a temper tamptrum and missing out on the final selection. This year all the pressure will be on his shoulders.
So I guess the TDF long list would look something like this:
Mas
Verona
Oliviera
Garcia Cortina
Aranburu
Gorka Izaguirre
and then:
Muhlberger
Oscar Rodriguez
Pedrero
Arcas
Jorgenson
Barta
Rubio
Irviti/JJ
Samitier
Elosegui
Abner Gonzalez
G Serrano
That’s a lot of solid names for 2-3 spots. Rubio and Abner will likely ride the Giro again with Sosa since they are still very young. I don’t see where Barta really fits. He’s good enough to ride a GT, but this is still a team where the majority of riders are GT focused and would hate to see him relegated to Sepulveda status and focusing on Portugal. Movistar is stacked with GT domestiques right now.