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Tejay Van Garderen Discussion Thread

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Aug 9, 2009
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PremierAndrew said:
SeriousSam said:
I'd be shocked if he does.

What? You can't see him winning a relatively TT heavy Giro with a field like the 2012 Giro?
No. Because he's american and he only cares about the Tour, so he'll never do the Giro, and he'll only do the Vuelta in a year like this one where he has to leave the Tour early. Also, the Vuelta setup is not conductive for riders like TJ as ___________/ doesn't suit him.
 
Aug 31, 2012
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Re: Re:

PremierAndrew said:
SeriousSam said:
I'd be shocked if he does.

What? You can't see him winning a relatively TT heavy Giro with a field like the 2012 Giro?
Perhaps he could, but TJ will continue to target the Tour most of the time. If he stopped doing the Tour and instead tried to win the Giro, peaking for it, then I wouldn't be shocked if he wins it at least once in like 6 or so attempts.

I'd still put his chance to win at least one GT at less than 50% even if he abandoned the Tour.
 
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movingtarget said:
I think Porte and TJVG are at similar levels as far as winning a GT goes. Each has a lot to prove. As for Talansky who some people were talking about as something special, he seems to be going backwards. He seems to be another Rolland. He could, he would, he should. We are still waiting. Both are obviously trying to win a GT by getting in a break and that's the only way either Rolland or Talansky seems to be able to break into the top 10. Maybe both have them have been watching the 2006 Tour too often. But the reality is they can't ride with the best in the mountains consistently so their GT hopes are non existent. Porte and TJVG have some hope of making the podium in a GT if everything goes right for them which did not happen this year.
First of all Rolland top-5ed in the Giro last year without masses of time in the break. :eek:
Second, TVJG is so much better than LRP in GT's. TJ hasn't got great recovery or a great immunity to sickness, but LRP's recovery is the worst among GC 'contenders'. He can't string more than 9 days together. When the first bad day happens, another 4 follow. At least TJ has come top 5 in a GT where he hasn't gained 11 minutes in the break, then managed to lose all of it + another 8 minutes in the remaining stages.
 
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SeriousSam said:
PremierAndrew said:
SeriousSam said:
I'd be shocked if he does.

What? You can't see him winning a relatively TT heavy Giro with a field like the 2012 Giro?
Perhaps he could, but TJ will continue to target the Tour most of the time. If he stopped doing the Tour and instead tried to win the Giro, peaking for it, then I wouldn't be shocked if he wins it at least once in like 6 or so attempts.

I'd still put his chance to win at least one GT at less than 50% even if he abandoned the Tour.
If Ryder can win the Giro... Well, you get the picture.
 
Aug 9, 2009
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irondan said:
SeriousSam said:
PremierAndrew said:
SeriousSam said:
I'd be shocked if he does.

What? You can't see him winning a relatively TT heavy Giro with a field like the 2012 Giro?
Perhaps he could, but TJ will continue to target the Tour most of the time. If he stopped doing the Tour and instead tried to win the Giro, peaking for it, then I wouldn't be shocked if he wins it at least once in like 6 or so attempts.

I'd still put his chance to win at least one GT at less than 50% even if he abandoned the Tour.
If Ryder can win the Giro... Well, you get the picture.
If Pereiro can win the Tour... What was the point?
 
I can see TJ win the Giro if he ever wants to try that. He is still relatively young and is a better climber than Urán who have finished second a couple of times. The ITT should suit him well and if they dont throw too many of those 10% climbs in here, he will surely stand a chance, but I doubt he will ever try to focus 100% on the Giro before its too late, unfortunately. He wont win the Tour and I doubt very much as well the Vuelta.
 
Aug 9, 2009
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BMC signed Porte, I suspect, as GC leader for the Giro, meaning TJ will continue to target the Tour for the foreseeable future. This means no GC win for him.
 
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SergeDeM said:
BMC signed Porte, I suspect, as GC leader for the Giro, meaning TJ will continue to target the Tour for the foreseeable future. This means no GC win for him.

Porte doesn't care about the Giro.He wants to do Le Tour next year together with TVG.I don't think TVG is suited for Giro,so he's making the right choice going for TDF,even if this will end with no great results for him.Hopefully he'll have a good enough Vuelta to make him add it to his goals in the future.
 
Aug 9, 2009
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Being second tier as TJ and Porte and focusing 100% on the Tour is an approach with a very low probability of success.
I wish they would wise up.
 
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Hugo Koblet said:
SergeDeM said:
Being second tier as TJ and Porte and focusing 100% on the Tour is an approach with a very low probability of success.
I wish they would wise up.
Agree 100%. I think that TJ would have a pretty good shot at winning the Giro which has the worst field of the GT's by far.

I agree, but does a lot of this depend on what sponsors are looking for too? How much say do the riders have? (I really don't know).
 
Aug 16, 2013
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Arredondo said:
SergeDeM said:
Being second tier as TJ and Porte and focusing 100% on the Tour is an approach with a very low probability of success.
I wish they would wise up.

You can say about Porte what you want, but he's not 2nd tier. Let's wait what he can do when he's got a full team in support and can build up a season like he wants, without any restrictions and Froome's.

A guy, outside the big four, who has got at least a chance to podium a Tour, is still Porte. Way bigger then someone like Tejay.
 
Everyone outside the big 4, (actually it should be called the big 5 including Valverde) is second tier. That's not even arguable.

I agree with you Arredondo, that given a chance to shine for a full season with no distractions is something Porte can really do. He's top notch and maybe will force his way into that top tier. We're going to have to wait until next year to see it unfortunately..
 
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Hugo Koblet said:
SergeDeM said:
Being second tier as TJ and Porte and focusing 100% on the Tour is an approach with a very low probability of success.
I wish they would wise up.
Agree 100%. I think that TJ would have a pretty good shot at winning the Giro which has the worst field of the GT's by far.
Now that you are talking about it, who will ride next years giro :confused:
Of the guys which I could imagine to win a gt only aru and some classical giro riders like hesjedal come to my mind. Maybe purito will use the weak bunch to go for the gc but besides that probably everyone will try to win the tour. That means that next year really could be the season in which riding the giro could really pay for TJ
 
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Gigs_98 said:
Hugo Koblet said:
SergeDeM said:
Being second tier as TJ and Porte and focusing 100% on the Tour is an approach with a very low probability of success.
I wish they would wise up.
Agree 100%. I think that TJ would have a pretty good shot at winning the Giro which has the worst field of the GT's by far.
Now that you are talking about it, who will ride next years giro :confused:
Of the guys which I could imagine to win a gt only aru and some classical giro riders like hesjedal come to my mind. Maybe purito will use the weak bunch to go for the gc but besides that probably everyone will try to win the tour. That means that next year really could be the season in which riding the giro could really pay for TJ

Landa and Aru are almost 100%. Then there is probably the likes of Pozzo, Uran and Henao. And how about Kelderman, Majka and Zakarin, no clue if the participate. A young stud like Formolo shouldnt be discounted. And what state will Betancur show up in, if he does? Chaves needs to prove more still. One of the few Yates will maybe also decide to give it a shot?

Cant really say that with certainty, but TJ surely will have good chances of winning. I also heard some rumours of Nibali Giro 2016?

Edit: Nibali will partipate in 2016. That means TJ shouldnt go imo.
 
Aug 9, 2009
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Re: Re:

Son of Amsterhammer said:
Hugo Koblet said:
SergeDeM said:
Being second tier as TJ and Porte and focusing 100% on the Tour is an approach with a very low probability of success.
I wish they would wise up.
Agree 100%. I think that TJ would have a pretty good shot at winning the Giro which has the worst field of the GT's by far.

I agree, but does a lot of this depend on what sponsors are looking for too? How much say do the riders have? (I really don't know).
True. It's something that the riders have to balance somehow. On the one hand, you can maximize your earnings by going to a team that prioritizes the Tour above all. On the other hand, you can go to a team that will let you do the races that suit you best at the expense of a smaller paycheck.

Then again, there's always the possibility that, in their minds, they don't see themselves as second tier.
 
Aug 9, 2009
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irondan said:
Everyone outside the big 4, (actually it should be called the big 5 including Valverde) is second tier. That's not even arguable.
This is it. The big 4, and probably Valverde, are the top tier.
Then you have a second tier with riders such as TJ, Aru, Uran... and a few others depending on our personal preferences. I wouldn't put Rodriguez in there anymore but others would.

Porte I think is never going to make it. I get the feeling that the stars will never align for him. I mean, more than 30 years old and still without a single GT top 5? I just woudn't ever bet on him for a GT.
 
Re: Re:

SergeDeM said:
irondan said:
Everyone outside the big 4, (actually it should be called the big 5 including Valverde) is second tier. That's not even arguable.
This is it. The big 4, and probably Valverde, are the top tier.
Then you have a second tier with riders such as TJ, Aru, Uran... and a few others depending on our personal preferences. I wouldn't put Rodriguez in there anymore but others would.

Porte I think is never going to make it. I get the feeling that the stars will never align for him. I mean, more than 30 years old and still without a single GT top 5? I just woudn't ever bet on him for a GT.

Arguably Porte is 3rd Tier.
 
Re: Re:

SergeDeM said:
irondan said:
Everyone outside the big 4, (actually it should be called the big 5 including Valverde) is second tier. That's not even arguable.
This is it. The big 4, and probably Valverde, are the top tier.
Then you have a second tier with riders such as TJ, Aru, Uran... and a few others depending on our personal preferences. I wouldn't put Rodriguez in there anymore but others would.

Porte I think is never going to make it. I get the feeling that the stars will never align for him. I mean, more than 30 years old and still without a single GT top 5? I just woudn't ever bet on him for a GT.

At one stage I am sure the same was said about Wiggins and Froome. Porte can climb and TT better than most GC riders except for the usual GT winners. Over one week it's not a problem and many can do that but over three weeks well it's a short list. You only have to look at how many different names appear on podiums, not that many. You might have some one offs like Hesjedal, De Gendt, Cobo or Rodriguez and Valverde but the winners and placings usually come from a select group. I think Porte or TJVG can podium a GT. Physically I think it's possible, winning one will be a lot harder.

In a way I think it would be easier for Porte to do well in the Tour than the Giro. I think it suits him better but the competition is usually a little higher. But it would be interesting to see Porte go up against the Sky riders. I see no reason both could not lead at the Tour. Porte's presence in the team will only make the TTT team even stronger and on the MTFs it's usually every man for himself. I don't think Porte would be asked to wait for TJVG or vice versa and if a rider gets dropped early on a climb he will lose big time anyway. Even though Thomas rode a very good Tour this year I still think that Froome will miss Porte in the mountains especially when Colombians go up the road. Although the Sky squad is a very solid one and Poels is also riding well.

Could be a very interesting season coming up for TJVG and Porte in 2016 but I think they and their team will consider it a failure even either rider can't crack a top podium in one of the GTs. Top five is good but not really going to enhance careers for riders that are already deep into them. The other rider I will be interested to watch will be Landa, I thought he was impressive in the Giro but needs to improve his TT He has more time than the others of course. Contador's disappearance at the end of 2016 if it happens will change things and Aru and Quintana will get their chance to move up the order.
 
May 30, 2015
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Ironhead Slim said:
Does Tejay have a good chance over all or will he keep going backwards?

Not sure to be honest. This will be the first time he's ridden two GTs in one year. I'm a Tejay fan so I hope he'll do well. He didn't have the worst showing today, only losing a dozen or so seconds to Froome. My gut feeling is he probably won't have the best tour, because his body isn't used to this at all and he didn't specifically prep for it. He seems to be the kind of rider who needs a good program and proper build up to race a tour, lacking the next level talent of guys like Quintana and Froome. Without a lot of pressure though perhaps he'll do well, maybe a top 5 or perhaps a try at a stage win later down the road if for some reason he completely cracks in the first week. The TT should suit him though, so if he's still around the top of the leaderboard when that comes around he might be in it with a shout. Riding should also keep him in form for Worlds where hopefully he and Taylor Phinney can try to represent on American soil. Be absolutely fantastic to see those two guys on their top level together again.

Speaking of American talent both Lawson Craddock and Ian Boswell are at the Vuelta this year so it'll be interesting to see how they run. Boswell might end up mostly in service to Froome and Nieve but I'd love to see him pacing the pack at some point. Talansky is also at the Vuelta but he seems to not be going so well so far (and it's basically the first day).
 

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