If he gets a favorable course/field, it's not beyond reason that he can win a GT, he's pretty young still He has to improve his climbing though.
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No. Because he's american and he only cares about the Tour, so he'll never do the Giro, and he'll only do the Vuelta in a year like this one where he has to leave the Tour early. Also, the Vuelta setup is not conductive for riders like TJ as ___________/ doesn't suit him.PremierAndrew said:SeriousSam said:I'd be shocked if he does.
What? You can't see him winning a relatively TT heavy Giro with a field like the 2012 Giro?
Perhaps he could, but TJ will continue to target the Tour most of the time. If he stopped doing the Tour and instead tried to win the Giro, peaking for it, then I wouldn't be shocked if he wins it at least once in like 6 or so attempts.PremierAndrew said:SeriousSam said:I'd be shocked if he does.
What? You can't see him winning a relatively TT heavy Giro with a field like the 2012 Giro?
First of all Rolland top-5ed in the Giro last year without masses of time in the break.movingtarget said:I think Porte and TJVG are at similar levels as far as winning a GT goes. Each has a lot to prove. As for Talansky who some people were talking about as something special, he seems to be going backwards. He seems to be another Rolland. He could, he would, he should. We are still waiting. Both are obviously trying to win a GT by getting in a break and that's the only way either Rolland or Talansky seems to be able to break into the top 10. Maybe both have them have been watching the 2006 Tour too often. But the reality is they can't ride with the best in the mountains consistently so their GT hopes are non existent. Porte and TJVG have some hope of making the podium in a GT if everything goes right for them which did not happen this year.
If Ryder can win the Giro... Well, you get the picture.SeriousSam said:Perhaps he could, but TJ will continue to target the Tour most of the time. If he stopped doing the Tour and instead tried to win the Giro, peaking for it, then I wouldn't be shocked if he wins it at least once in like 6 or so attempts.PremierAndrew said:SeriousSam said:I'd be shocked if he does.
What? You can't see him winning a relatively TT heavy Giro with a field like the 2012 Giro?
I'd still put his chance to win at least one GT at less than 50% even if he abandoned the Tour.
If Pereiro can win the Tour... What was the point?irondan said:If Ryder can win the Giro... Well, you get the picture.SeriousSam said:Perhaps he could, but TJ will continue to target the Tour most of the time. If he stopped doing the Tour and instead tried to win the Giro, peaking for it, then I wouldn't be shocked if he wins it at least once in like 6 or so attempts.PremierAndrew said:SeriousSam said:I'd be shocked if he does.
What? You can't see him winning a relatively TT heavy Giro with a field like the 2012 Giro?
I'd still put his chance to win at least one GT at less than 50% even if he abandoned the Tour.
SergeDeM said:BMC signed Porte, I suspect, as GC leader for the Giro, meaning TJ will continue to target the Tour for the foreseeable future. This means no GC win for him.
Agree 100%. I think that TJ would have a pretty good shot at winning the Giro which has the worst field of the GT's by far.SergeDeM said:Being second tier as TJ and Porte and focusing 100% on the Tour is an approach with a very low probability of success.
I wish they would wise up.
Hugo Koblet said:Agree 100%. I think that TJ would have a pretty good shot at winning the Giro which has the worst field of the GT's by far.SergeDeM said:Being second tier as TJ and Porte and focusing 100% on the Tour is an approach with a very low probability of success.
I wish they would wise up.
Arredondo said:SergeDeM said:Being second tier as TJ and Porte and focusing 100% on the Tour is an approach with a very low probability of success.
I wish they would wise up.
You can say about Porte what you want, but he's not 2nd tier. Let's wait what he can do when he's got a full team in support and can build up a season like he wants, without any restrictions and Froome's.
A guy, outside the big four, who has got at least a chance to podium a Tour, is still Porte. Way bigger then someone like Tejay.
Now that you are talking about it, who will ride next years giroHugo Koblet said:Agree 100%. I think that TJ would have a pretty good shot at winning the Giro which has the worst field of the GT's by far.SergeDeM said:Being second tier as TJ and Porte and focusing 100% on the Tour is an approach with a very low probability of success.
I wish they would wise up.
Gigs_98 said:Now that you are talking about it, who will ride next years giroHugo Koblet said:Agree 100%. I think that TJ would have a pretty good shot at winning the Giro which has the worst field of the GT's by far.SergeDeM said:Being second tier as TJ and Porte and focusing 100% on the Tour is an approach with a very low probability of success.
I wish they would wise up.
Of the guys which I could imagine to win a gt only aru and some classical giro riders like hesjedal come to my mind. Maybe purito will use the weak bunch to go for the gc but besides that probably everyone will try to win the tour. That means that next year really could be the season in which riding the giro could really pay for TJ
True. It's something that the riders have to balance somehow. On the one hand, you can maximize your earnings by going to a team that prioritizes the Tour above all. On the other hand, you can go to a team that will let you do the races that suit you best at the expense of a smaller paycheck.Son of Amsterhammer said:Hugo Koblet said:Agree 100%. I think that TJ would have a pretty good shot at winning the Giro which has the worst field of the GT's by far.SergeDeM said:Being second tier as TJ and Porte and focusing 100% on the Tour is an approach with a very low probability of success.
I wish they would wise up.
I agree, but does a lot of this depend on what sponsors are looking for too? How much say do the riders have? (I really don't know).
This is it. The big 4, and probably Valverde, are the top tier.irondan said:Everyone outside the big 4, (actually it should be called the big 5 including Valverde) is second tier. That's not even arguable.
SergeDeM said:This is it. The big 4, and probably Valverde, are the top tier.irondan said:Everyone outside the big 4, (actually it should be called the big 5 including Valverde) is second tier. That's not even arguable.
Then you have a second tier with riders such as TJ, Aru, Uran... and a few others depending on our personal preferences. I wouldn't put Rodriguez in there anymore but others would.
Porte I think is never going to make it. I get the feeling that the stars will never align for him. I mean, more than 30 years old and still without a single GT top 5? I just woudn't ever bet on him for a GT.
Yes, it's the Tj thread.jmdirt said:My idea or "tier" is different than some here. The top tier to me is the top guy for each team (be it GC, sprinter...). The top five guys aren't a tier they are just the top five guys.
Is this still the Tejay thread?
SergeDeM said:This is it. The big 4, and probably Valverde, are the top tier.irondan said:Everyone outside the big 4, (actually it should be called the big 5 including Valverde) is second tier. That's not even arguable.
Then you have a second tier with riders such as TJ, Aru, Uran... and a few others depending on our personal preferences. I wouldn't put Rodriguez in there anymore but others would.
Porte I think is never going to make it. I get the feeling that the stars will never align for him. I mean, more than 30 years old and still without a single GT top 5? I just woudn't ever bet on him for a GT.
Ironhead Slim said:Does Tejay have a good chance over all or will he keep going backwards?