The 2012 CQ Ranking Manager Game

[greenedge]

I expected more from Mick Rogers after reading his recent comments. I guess he needs a few more races...

He was not that bad and he will go well in the ITT. He worked for Sutton a bit. Sky were very god in positioning their riders in moves ( Porte and Sutton ) in the final 5 ( Hayman and O'Grady ) on a long break.
If only Renshaw or Davis clung on near the front...

 

[taiwan]

I have Guardini

@ingsve tx, I enjoyed reading the critique of will10's team. With respect to Guardini, I can't remember my exact reasoning, but I'm hoping he races more this year and takes a more prominent role in the team. If he does, well Kittel did 1k points on a Pro Conti team, didn't he (right)?

 

[skidmark]

With Duarte, I really wanted to pick him, but then I took a long look at his team and decided that, although I'm sure he'll be leader, I'm wary of how many events they'll get picked for, because their CQ value isn't that high, which (despite the fact that I think lots of those riders are talented) might mean that organizers will think they have a low sporting value.

That, and I didn't pick him because the only rider around his price that I could replace was Yoann Offredo, and I didn't want to do that because Offredo is one of my favourite riders. Goddamnit.

 

[ingsve]

@ingsve tx, I enjoyed reading the critique of will10's team. With respect to Guardini, I can't remember my exact reasoning, but I'm hoping he races more this year and takes a more prominent role in the team. If he does, well Kittel did 1k points on a Pro Conti team, didn't he (right)?

He did but Kittel is a bit stronger than Guardini in tougher races so he managed to win or place in more one day races which gives a lot of points. He also has a good ITT which gave him 2nd in Delta Tour which is another thing Guardini can't do.

 

[Eric8-A]

Why does everyone seem to regret not choosing Lloyd? It's only one race so far. It's not like he's going to be scoring big the rest of the season.

 

[taiwan]

Because I spent points on riders that stand to do worse than Lloyd if he performs at all. They're less common, though.

 

[The Hitch]

I do not regret not picking Lloyd.

I take the rider limit as seriously as the points limit.

Once the game starts points go out of the window.

To break even the average rider has to score 220 points (around).

For me a 0 rider who scores maybe a 100 isnt worth it. Its not much better than a 200 rider who scores 300 points.

Of course Lloyd could score more but after the year out and his problems I wasnt sure. Also if hes going for Giro kom again, thats not worth much anyway.

I felt there were 33 other riders with better chances of going deep into the hundreds.

So even with him getting such a good start, I feel sticking with more expensive riders with more potential was the right choice.

 

[ingsve]

I do not regret not picking Lloyd.

I take the rider limit as seriously as the points limit.

Once the game starts points go out of the window.

To break even the average rider has to score 220 points (around).

For me a 0 rider who scores maybe a 100 isnt worth it. Its not much better than a 200 rider who scores 300 points.

Of course Lloyd could score more but after the year out and his problems I wasnt sure. Also if hes going for Giro kom again, thats not worth much anyway.

I felt there were 33 other riders with better chances of going deep into the hundreds.

So even with him getting such a good start, I feel sticking with more expensive riders with more potential was the right choice.

Ya, I felt I had a hard time reaching 7500 points rather than trying to get under 7500 so cheapness in itself isn't that important since there are so many other good picks below 100 points. I would be more upset if I missed a really good pick in the 500-1000 range since that's a trickier price point to choose at.

 

[Eric8-A]

I do not regret not picking Lloyd.

I take the rider limit as seriously as the points limit.

Once the game starts points go out of the window.

To break even the average rider has to score 220 points (around).

For me a 0 rider who scores maybe a 100 isnt worth it. Its not much better than a 200 rider who scores 300 points.

Of course Lloyd could score more but after the year out and his problems I wasnt sure. Also if hes going for Giro kom again, thats not worth much anyway.

I felt there were 33 other riders with better chances of going deep into the hundreds.

So even with him getting such a good start, I feel sticking with more expensive riders with more potential was the right choice.

I feel you. Even though he was a free pick, I just chose not to pick him given that I won't expect such a big profit on him.

 

[AussieGoddess]

I do have Lloyd, and I do expect a little bit from him this year ... but lets not get too excited.

It is still only the first week in January. The season has an incredibly long way to go before we can decide if he is a good pick or not, even for 0 points.

 

[Ferminal]

I do not regret not picking Lloyd.

I take the rider limit as seriously as the points limit.

Once the game starts points go out of the window.

To break even the average rider has to score 220 points (around).

For me a 0 rider who scores maybe a 100 isnt worth it. Its not much better than a 200 rider who scores 300 points.

Of course Lloyd could score more but after the year out and his problems I wasnt sure. Also if hes going for Giro kom again, thats not worth much anyway.

I felt there were 33 other riders with better chances of going deep into the hundreds.

So even with him getting such a good start, I feel sticking with more expensive riders with more potential was the right choice.

It also depends on whether you look at potential minimum or maximum and how you manage those uncertainties. You might pick a variety of "locks" as well as more speculative selections... horses for courses.

 

[skidmark]

I do not regret not picking Lloyd.

I take the rider limit as seriously as the points limit.

Once the game starts points go out of the window.

To break even the average rider has to score 220 points (around).

For me a 0 rider who scores maybe a 100 isnt worth it. Its not much better than a 200 rider who scores 300 points.

Of course Lloyd could score more but after the year out and his problems I wasnt sure. Also if hes going for Giro kom again, thats not worth much anyway.

I felt there were 33 other riders with better chances of going deep into the hundreds.

So even with him getting such a good start, I feel sticking with more expensive riders with more potential was the right choice.

+1. My thoughts exactly.

Watch him win the Vuelta now...

 

[Jakob747]

After having spent one week, in Santa Marta relaxing before the new cycling calendar year really kicks in, I have been excited to see everyone's CQ team. Is there a place I can download a spreadsheet or see who got the unique picks, etc. etc?

I just got home and found I am at least a good 50 pages behind in this thread then before I left.

Any help would be appreciated.

In the meantime here is my team for 2012. Build with 33 personal favorites mas o minus. Only Matti Breschel I had to compromise with a little. Which I only did since he is still "relatively young!!!!!


Mollema Bauke = 1101

Martin Daniel = 1035

Poels Wout = 681

De Gendt Thomas = 485

Betancur Gomez Carlos Alberto = 291

Duarte Arevalo Fabio Andres = 286

Talansky Andrew= 229

Battaglin Enrico = 228

Felline Fabio = 222

Jeannesson Arnold = 221

Suarez Suarez Juan Pablo = 220

Jeandesboz Fabrice = 217

Henao Montoya Sergio Luis = 202

Madrazo Ruiz Angel = 199

Novikov Nikita = 172

Stetina Peter = 162

Cardoso Andre Fernando S. Martins = 157

Baugnies Jerome = 154

Demare Arnaud = 148

Bardet Romain = 130

Bilbao Lopez De Armentia Pello = 128

Masciarelli Francesco = 127

Denifl Stefan = 125

Puccio Salvatore = 100

Breschel Matti = 98

Moser Moreno =78

Elissonde Kenny = 74

Quintana Rojas Nairo Alexander = 60

Lindeman Bert-Jan = 57

Colbrelli Sonny = 52

Locatelli Stefano = 34

Molard Rudy = 9

Domagalski Karol Andrzej = 0

 

[Jancouver]

I do have Lloyd, and I do expect a little bit from him this year ... but lets not get too excited.

It is still only the first week in January. The season has an incredibly long way to go before we can decide if he is a good pick or not, even for 0 points.

Agree with all those not jumping on the "I missed this rider" idea. 200 points rider with just 50% profit is more valuable to me than a free pick with 60 points gain. Yeah sure, he can have a great season and finish with hundreds of points but generally speaking its a numbers game and it is January ...

Last year I hit 13th position after Paris-RBX and finished somewhere in the middle so until the first GT is behind us, we know nothing.

BTW on what week took INGSVE the lead last year?

 

[the asian]

Have to say Gerrens is a very brave pick - a 31 year old who was 70 points off his best every last year.

Yr, I was smoking when I picked him

I thought he'll get a more leadership role at GreenEdge. Anyway it's a high risk pick.

 

[Eric8-A]

I think a good battle between riders is going to be Sicard vs Lloyd to see who gains the most points.

 

[Tuarts]

Fwiw, 42 people have Lloyd and 29 have him and not Offredo.

 

[greenedge]

It also depends on whether you look at potential minimum or maximum and how you manage those uncertainties. You might pick a variety of "locks" as well as more speculative selections... horses for courses.

That assessment is correct, though most people might have different ways of going about it ( or might not know so much about some riders/ schedule/ projected score )

 

[greenedge]

I think a good battle between riders is going to be Sicard vs Lloyd to see who gains the most points.

Sicard still might have problems ( though i hope not )

 

[greenedge]

A 200 points rider with just 50% profit is more valuable to me than a free pick with 60 points gain. Yeah sure, he can have a great season and finish with hundreds of points but generally speaking its a numbers game and it is January ...

Last year I hit 13th position after Paris-RBX and finished somewhere in the middle so until the first GT is behind us, we know nothing.

I hope that he can go better than the 60 points he has already gained. That is not just CQ wise but for him as a rider ( as these points are indicative of good placings ). The fact that he has started off well seems to indicate a good season.
I do understand your point however that there is no real certainty until after at least 2 GT's ( to establish a pecking order ).
Lloyd will also have to work for Scarponi/ Cunego at the Giro as well ( so he might not inspire many at his first GT of the year )

 

[bicing]

Agree with all those not jumping on the "I missed this rider" idea. 200 points rider with just 50% profit is more valuable to me than a free pick with 60 points gain. Yeah sure, he can have a great season and finish with hundreds of points but generally speaking its a numbers game and it is January ...

Last year I hit 13th position after Paris-RBX and finished somewhere in the middle so until the first GT is behind us, we know nothing.

BTW on what week took INGSVE the lead last year?

Think he took the throne after RVV because he had Nuyens and scored a superhuman one-day total.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

After having spent one week, in Santa Marta relaxing before the new cycling calendar year really kicks in, I have been excited to see everyone's CQ team. Is there a place I can download a spreadsheet or see who got the unique picks, etc. etc?

I just got home and found I am at least a good 50 pages behind in this thread then before I left.

Any help would be appreciated.

In the meantime here is my team for 2012. Build with 33 personal favorites mas o minus. Only Matti Breschel I had to compromise with a little. Which I only did since he is still "relatively young!!!!!

See post 2 of this thread.

Anyway, very interesting team you've got!

 

[fedaia]

See post 2 of this thread.

+ page 98/99 for the uniqueness thing

 

[Kvinto]

Sicard still might have problems ( though i hope not )

Yep, because if Sicard's muscle imbalance in a right leg is over then Lloyd has no chance. The question stands 'is it actually over?' because from what i read about this during 2011 they (Euskaltel) didn't even know what caused this problem

 

[taiwan]

After having spent one week, in Santa Marta relaxing before the new cycling calendar year really kicks in, I have been excited to see everyone's CQ team. Is there a place I can download a spreadsheet or see who got the unique picks, etc. etc?

Click to these posts. You have the 18th most 'uncommon' team.

The spreadsheet is up

Download it here:

http://www.crocko.com/D97890019360454583103F16CA740026/CQ_Rankings_Spreadsheet_2012.xls

http://www.megaupload.com/?d=2IU65N96

For our many newcomers, I'll write a bit about it tommorow.

Data on popularity of riders etc. can be found in Skibby the bush kangaroo's posts from this point.

1 BRESCHEL Matti 105
2 VELITS Peter 91
3 BOONEN Tom 76
4 POZZATO Filippo 75
5 HENAO MONTOYA Sergio Luis 73
6 ROGERS Michael 66
7 SANCHEZ GIL Luis Leon 64
8 RENSHAW Mark 62
9 DAVIS Allan 62
10 KREUZIGER Roman 55
...
[most popular riders]