The 2013 CQ Ranking Manager Game

[the asian]

I am surprised only 4 people picked Rolland (

.

.
Could be a very good pick as he seems to have decided to target the correct races.
He's going to Langkawi, rather than Paris-Nice so he should have a better chance of scoring more.
If Europcar get a wildcard pick for the Giro and he rides he'll be very handy.

 

[Ferminal]

I wanted to pick him after seeing he was doing Langkawi, should get a top5 there even in rubbish form.

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

Don't forget Rolland had a knee injury somewhere in early last season, so there's room to earn more points there too.

 

[taiwan]

What suprised me is that Rujano is a way more popular pick than solid performers like Rebellin and Millar. I mean, both could triple their scores, whereas Rujano...

I guess I just don't see it.

I'll give you Rebellin, but Rujano is a fair gamble IMO. If he gets the 2011 Giro form, he's on WT team and could triple his score or more.

Problem is if he only rides the Giro and flops.

Glad only 5 have Klöden. He's as old school as your old school but all quality in stage races and younger than some other 'evergreen' riders.

 

[TeoSheva]

when I started to build up my team I wrote down two names in bold, because I was 100% sure about them:
- the first is Thomas and he's a very popular pick.
-the second one is Stybar: I'm really surprised that only 20 teams selected him. In the last year he started to race in May and did already quite well... but this year he will start soon and he will do all the spring races that are those that better suite to him... IMO he should be a must in this game but maybe I'm wrong since only 19 more guys thought like me.

 

[will10]

I'll give you Rebellin, but Rujano is a fair gamble IMO. If he gets the 2011 Giro form, he's on WT team and could triple his score or more.

Problem is if he only rides the Giro and flops.

Glad only 5 have Klöden. He's as old school as your old school but all quality in stage races and younger than some other 'evergreen' riders.

I think Rujano is a reasonable gamble. My logic on him was that even if the Giro is a disappointment, he is looking to ride the Vuelta this year and won't just ****** off back to South America to ride chippers Also the Vuelta should suit him, particularly weather-wise, more than the Giro.

Oh and there is the fact that I recall jumping around like a loony watching him almost snatch the Giro in 2005, so I do have a certain softspot for Rujano.

Re: Millar - was in and out of my team but I can see him getting less and less chances now. Remember the Tour stage he won was only because all their GC guys crashed out, so he and Vandevelde etc. were allowed to go for stage wins. If Garmin produce their normal solid top 10 GCer, Millar is going to be pegged helping him with limited opportunites for himself, and he is no longer one of the top TTers either. Might prove me wrong but I reckoned on less than 200 for him so left him out.

 

[Froome19]

Rujano reminds me of a more expensive version of Cobo. Massive amounts of talent, but when the problems strike it goes pear shaped very quickly. Seeing the difference in price I went for Cobo whilst leaving Rujano well alone. I see the Giro as being his only chance if he fails there I do not see him picking himself up and challenging for the Vuelta. His actions and attitude towards last season seemed to suggest that.

 

[the asian]

Millar will be more interested in UCI politics than bike racing next year.

Regarding stybar, he was in my team last year and though I overlooked him this year he should be a very solid pick scoring about 700 pts.
He indicated that he would target Het Volk this year and with Boonen's delayed start to the season he probably would be the leader there.

When La Flo hinted that she had picked an Czech with the advice of Hitch, I assumed that it would be stybar and after reading his interview I was very tempted to pick him but in the end left him out asit would mean I had to make changes for my already picked team.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Rujano is unlikely to make a massive profit, imo.
Best season of 2005 unlikely to be repeated.
2011, mid 600's.
Both with Savio.
Outside of those, not a lot.

Vacan will have to work some magic.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Oh, sigh. There were still a few more minor corrections but now hopefully everything is alright

 

[jsem94]

I was considering Stybar, really should have picked him...

 

[TeoSheva]

I was considering Stybar, really should have picked him...

we can say this only in some months

 

[taiwan]

So it's looking like Dombrowski is most likely to be this season's Sagan/Kittel/Henao.

 

[Object]

Thx for all the hard work. This season is going to be great =)

 

[TeoSheva]

another rider that had a really poor consideration IMO (only 6 team!!) is Tom Dumoulin: he's still very young and in the last year as neopro he raced only minor races (no 2.WT races that can suit him very well) but he already had good results (6th in Andalucia, 5th in Luxemburg, 10th at Vuelta a Burgos). He can easily double his point and getting even something more...

 

[The Blues]

Such a shame I first noticed this now. I have seen talk of it before, but did not know where it actually was. Good luck, everyone.

 

[The Hitch]

GILBERT Philippe -

obvious

CANCELLARA Fabian-

His season has never been ideal for the cq system. Even when winning Velodor he was only finishing like 5th here. I think preparing properly for Autumn is what will finally make him more succesful in this system. + not wasting energy and points on working for Andy

POZZATO Filippo-

obvious

PINOT Thibaut-

obvious

TAARAMÄE Rein-

He has shown glimpses of being 1 of the best climbers. And has scored double his points before.

ROJAS GIL Jose Joaquin-

obvious

MATTHEWS Michael

Young rider who already scored twice his points total before.

BRESCHEL Matti-

obvious

CHAVES RUBIO Johan Esteban-

I trust Colombians.

STYBAR Zdenek

- Trusted El Pistolero on this. Only 1 this year.

OFFREDO Yoann

- Wanted to use up all my points and get as close to 7500 and he was a piece of the puzzle in my 7498 team.

Also read an interview with him 2 days ago where he says it will be very hard to get back into the peloton but that he did 25000km while off last year and is feeling in good shape

RUJANO GUILLEN Jose Humberto-

obvious to me. First name on my team. Guy who went one on one with The Great One on Etna.

CIOLEK Gerald-

Found myself nodding along to those saying he will get good chances at continental level. Weve seen it before.

DOMBROWSKI Joseph Lloyd -

Just in case he does get a chance to show that insane climbing talent. Thought a lot would have him

THOMAS Geraint-

obvious

LÖFKVIST Thomas-

7500/33 = around 220. Riders in the 170-250 range I therefore like. Lofkvist was there, and hes a good talent who with luck and a good schedule could score even if not on form.

ARU Fabio-

I thought many would have him and didnt want to risk not.

COLBRELLI Sonny-

Ferminal rates him and i rate Ferminal.

BOSWELL Ian-

Just fit with the points total and talent

APPOLLONIO Davide-

Talented sprinter coming quite cheap. also AG2r have an insane sprinting leadout whch i hope will be behind him. Most importantly could get a chance at the French classics.

NUYENS Nick-

Obvious

COBO ACEBO Juan Jose-

obvious

ROUX Anthony-

obvious

HUSHOVD Thor-

obvious

HALLER Marco-

why gamble on u23 riders who beat u23 riders when you can take a u23 rider who already on 1 occasion beat Pettachi, Viviani, EBH and a bunch of others

SUTTON Christopher-

Thought a lot of people would take him and didnt want not to.

COQUARD Bryan-

Considered Lutsenko but he cost 250, so the guy who came 2nd at 1/10th the price seems like a bargain. + i do think hes a real talent.

HEPBURN Michael -

Saw in some results he was as good a tter as Rohan
Dennis. Also looks really good in prologues, so im hoping hell score some points there. Maybe take some leaders jerseys while hes at it.

SCHLECK Andy-

obvious. 2nd name on my team - after Rujano

VAN LEIJEN Joost-

obvious

BOBRIDGE Jack-

obvious

KENNAUGH Peter-

obvious

OSPINA HERNANDEZ Argiro Alonso -

Ryo

 

[skidmark]

The thing about Roux was the fact that I found out he had problems with his sciatic nerve all season and he just recently in the off season has had an operation on it. So seeing how he is young, reasonably talented and was hindered by an injury last season I saw him as a certain pick.

Yeah, I figured it was something like that, same as Ravard. Those kinds of picks are good because they can get a few hundred almost guaranteed, recovery year on a French team with plenty of opportunities. But I dunno, I guess I just like to hope for a big talent to explode, although looking at my similar picks around there, do I really expect Cattaneo or Sicard to get more than a few hundred? At the end of the day it's a crapshoot.

 

[The Hitch]

Top 10 game changers

This is a list of the 10 potentially most influential picks. They are of course my personal opinion and their potential influence is based on cost, risk, potential return and number of teams that have picked the rider. I’ve also looked a little bit at who has picked the riders, because after all a team with a strong history in the game is likely to have made some good decisions again. The “number” factor is a little complex because a rider picked by too many teams doesn’t have that much influence on the game (think Schleck or Gilbert) while a unique pick won’t have much influence either.

1. Jose Joaquin Rojas Gil. Cost: 366. Popularity: 68
Rojas is in my opinion one of the better picks in the game (yet I still didn’t include him in my team, facepalm Ryo style). I think he’s very likely to double his score and if he does more than that, it can be very hard for the teams without him to catch up. With 68 picks he’s dividing the game in two almost exactly equal parts and is bound to have a lot of influence.
8 of 10 of the teams in last year’s top 10 have Rojas in their team, which indicates that Rojas could be a must have by the end of the season.

2. Joseph Lloyd Dombrowski. Cost: 194. Popularity: 74
The young American can easily be this year’s most important pick. Even though he’s not such a big gamble at 194 points, with 74 picks he’s roughly dividing the game in two equally big parts and if he lives up to his potential and scores a lot of points he can make sure that’s it’s very hard for the teams without him to compete for the win.
9 of 10 of last year’s top 10 have Dombrowski in their team, which shows how much faith there is in Dombrowski.

3. Matti Breschel. Cost: 329. Popularity: 54
Last year Matti was one of the most popular picks at only 98 points. Because of that and because he “only” scored 329 points, he didn’t influence the game that much. This year he’s back together with Riis, where he for three consecutive years scored more than 800 points. If he manages to find his old form again, he will have a lot of influence on the game.
5 of 10 of last year’s top 10 have Breschel in their team.

4. Michael Matthews. Cost: 359. Popularity: 49
Matthews is in my opinion almost identical to Breschel. He definitely has the potential to score big and quite a lot of teams have picked him and on top of that a lot of last year’s top 10 teams have faith in Matthews: 9 of 10 of last year’s top 10 have him in their team, indicating that he could be an important pick in the end.

5. Juan Jose Cobo Acebo. Cost: 96. Popularity: 80
The CQ game legend of all legends. Cobo is cheap so he’s not much of a risk. On the other hand it can be risky to leave him out of the team. The possibility of him scoring as many points as 2011 is quite small, but the one thing we know about Cobo is that we don’t know anything. Likely he won’t score that much but there’s always a possibility that he can ten double his score making him a potentially very influential rider.
6 of 10 of last year’s top 10 have Cobo in their team.

6. Rohan Dennis. Cost: 271. Popularity: 38
Personally, I have a lot of faith in Dennis. For me, he’s the neo-pro most likely to score big, which could give any team with Dennis in it a big advantage. His pretty high cost makes him bit of a risk though, and even if he has a season like Durbridge did this year his return isn’t that good. I think he’ll score bigger and hence have a higher influence on the game.
5 of 10 of last year’s top 10 have Dennis in their team.

7. Argiro Alonso Ospina Hernandez. Cost: 0. Popularity: 51
The hype surrounding this guy is enormous. Not many of us know much about him, but Ryo and Jakob747 are building him up as the next big thing from Colombia. As he is free, the risk of including him is only that you take up a spot on your team – but the risk of not picking him is potentially huge. However, the likelihood of him earning game changing points isn’t that big – but I’m sure we’ll all be following him closely whether he’s in our team or not.
5 of 10 of last year’s top 10 have Ospina in their team, further underlining the mystique around this young fellow.

8. Thibaut Pinot. Cost: 442. Popularity: 76
The reason Pinot isn’t higher on this list is because his potential return in percentage seems somewhat limited. You might disagree, but I think there’s very little chance he’ll more than double his points. However, Pinot is still on the list because he just about divides the teams in two equally large camps: Those with Pinot and those without – and because last year’s top 10 seem to have a lot of faith in him: 9 of 10 of last year’s top 10 have Pinot in their team.

9. Cadel Evans. Cost: 843. Popularity: 32
The last 5 years in a row, Evans more than doubled his 2012 score. That usually indicated a great CQ pick, but Evans is getting old and the possibility that he will double his 2012 score this year seems limited. However, if he finds his old form he’s likely to be a very important rider in the game, giving the teams with Evans in it a huge advantage.
5 of 10 of last year’s top 10 have Evans in their team.

10. Fabian Cancellara. Cost: 1031. Popularity: 31
Cancellara is interesting. If he has a very good year he could double his score making him an amazing pick. However, he has never been close to that in a non-Olympics year making the chance quite small. Cancellara is pretty consistent and is likely to score 1400-1600 points making him a decent pick but not a game changer. He will be one of the most interesting riders to follow this year earning him a place on this list.
Only 2 of 10 of last year’s top 10 have Cancellara in their team.

Bonus info: with 8 of these 10 riders in his team, Kvinto is the team from last year’s top 10 that have the most of these riders in his team.

Cancellara at 1000 is imo by far the most influential pick. He picks the right races, gets the right form, gets that luck, and you will see the 25% who picked him tremendously overrepresented in the top 20.

1 slip on the tarmac though at the wrong race and those 25% will have to do a Landis just to finish in the top half.

Cancellaras fate will rule the fates of many.

Evans, Quintana and maybe Cav are also very important to the games outcome because they cost so much and were picked by quite a few.

Not taking costs into account though the most important rider is Rebellin. It took balls to take him and few did, but the points will almost certainly be there.

 

[The Hitch]

I'll give you Rebellin, but Rujano is a fair gamble IMO. If he gets the 2011 Giro form, he's on WT team and could triple his score or more.

Problem is if he only rides the Giro and flops.

Glad only 5 have Klöden. He's as old school as your old school but all quality in stage races and younger than some other 'evergreen' riders.

oh yeah, that remind me. Rujanos excuse for the giro (or rather ryos excuse) is that its too cold and he gets ill. He said 2 years ago he wanted to do the Vuelta.

So theres hope also that when he does the Vuelta and the weather suits him hell put in a good performance for that reason.

 

[taiwan]

Got to say, Hitch - Cancelara has never doubled that score. A realistic 2013 score would be 1500 so X 1.5, that makes him more a banker than a game changer. TY for the info about Rujano.

Man, I hope I don't get punished for not having Gilbert.

edit: oops I just repeated Hugo Koblet re: Cancellara.

 

[LaFlorecita]

when I started to build up my team I wrote down two names in bold, because I was 100% sure about them:
- the first is Thomas and he's a very popular pick.
-the second one is Stybar: I'm really surprised that only 20 teams selected him. In the last year he started to race in May and did already quite well... but this year he will start soon and he will do all the spring races that are those that better suite to him... IMO he should be a must in this game but maybe I'm wrong since only 19 more guys thought like me.

No you are not wrong about Styby, the great el Pisti who knows everything about OPQS assured me that he will score 300% this year

 

[TeoSheva]

No you are not wrong about Styby, the great el Pisti who knows everything about OPQS assured me that he will score 300% this year

this encourages me

 

[Ruby United]

Got to say, Hitch - Cancelara has never doubled that score. A realistic 2013 score would be 1500 so X 1.5, that makes him more a banker than a game changer.

Man, I hope I don't get punished for not having Gilbert.

edit: oops I just repeated Hugo Koblet re: Cancellara.

I agree. With Boonen looking good and Cancellara only getting older I doubt that Canc will be beating previous scores, 1499 would be a good score for him. His TT supremacy seems to be over and even if it is not with Wiggins, Martin and Phinney he has 3 competitors who can beat him on most days. The worlds are probably too hard for him as well.

Rebellin as well has a limited scoring range. He is 42 or something. I can not imagine he will be scoring anything dramatic. Him doubling his total will assist but it will not be a game changer.

I did not make a team but have got a few teams I will be rooting for this year.

 

[TeoSheva]

and what about JTL? only 14teams selected him... it's risky because of the cost (almost 600points...) but I think he can manage to double them...he can be the leader (with Henao) of Sky in the Ardennes and take some points in races like Tour of Polonia and similar...