I always love the 'rider debate' part of the start of the season for this. Lotsa talk about Contador and Ewan, I figure it's a good time to detail my reasoning for picking my team, highest to lowest:
Contador - listen, I don't expect pre-ban Contador levels of dominance, now or ever. I'd be pleasantly surprised, but that's not the point. The point is that he's a fantastic stage race rider, he still won the Vuelta post-ban so he's got lots of potential, just not a slam-dunk, and he was on the back foot last year for the first time in his career since really emerging in 2007. His approach this year can only be better, tactically and training-wise, now that he knows he can't waltz in and win all year long. Add the fact that he's doing 2 GTs and his points should go up to 1800-2200, making him more than worthwhile.
Boasson Hagen - underachiever or not, he's still one of the most talented riders in the peloton, and Sky's got nobody who can do what he can do, in terms of top-level speed, getting over hills, and good TT ability (Thomas is okay but just not as good). One result in a long classic would be great, but if not I expect him to win stuff like the Hamburg race or GP Plouay or Montreal, if nothing else. Doubling of points is reasonable.
Phinney - more of a 'safety' pick than a game-breaker. He'll do just fine if he performs year-round, is healthy for a GT, and shouldn't really get lower than 4th in the Worlds TT. His result in MSR last year was promising for races of length and the first time he's showed staying power on any kind of hill. MSR is harder this year, but if that transfers over to Flanders or E3, that's great; if not, there's still Roubaix and G-W. Shouldn't do worse than 6-700, I wouldn't be shocked (but pleasantly surprised) if he cracked 1000.
Dennis - had a bit of bad luck last year (which has also carried over to this year it seems) but is too talented to leave off. His TT skills and good climbing should make him a threat, if not yet for stuff like P-N and Dauphine (although maybe), at least the American races and that thing coming up in Oz next week. 800 not unlikely.
LL Sanchez - no-brainer, leader at Caja means he'll make the most of his opportunities. 1000 points.
Moser - He's definitely better than last year showed. He had a really lucky first season, he might get back to that level of results, but even if not he's a solid pick.
Van Den Broeck - not as great a pick as his obviousness suggests. Some riders are obvious because they were injured dramatically; he is one. But someone like Monfort, switching teams to become GT leader for 2 GTs while being a solid all-rounder, is about as lucrative a pick. If Monfort's points fit on my team I would have picked him instead. VdB is just fine, but I don't see him getting much more than 750 points, really.
Hesjedal - had a horrible year, and even though his Giro results are somewhat mysterious in terms of why, I don't think it's a sign that 2012 was a flash in the pan. Could be solid (5-600), could be spectacular (2012 level).
Le Bon - pleased to see he's my most unique pick as 5 people only picked him. I dunno, he's got good TT skills and looks real promising in the classics (2nd at Tro Bo Leon and 26th in his debut P-R). Plus he missed 3 months with injury. Certainly you can't just imagine 3 months worth of replaced points and expect them, along with age-related improvement, but I think there's enough there that he could be a great contributor and as much as triple. He'll have plenty of opportunities at least.
Van Poppel - I only didn't pick him last year because I thought he was too young. He proved me wrong, so I'm backing him this year, especially with Trek's dearth of top-level speed. Glad to read today that he's not riding a GT, he's good enough to place highly in a ton of smaller races and pull out the odd stage on a WT race. Don't know what to expect, but 5-700 wouldn't be crazy.
Aru - if you need an explanation, just pay attention to him this year, because it means that you haven't been up until now. His results will speak for themselves.
Brajkovic - I dunno if he'll have enough chances to really recoup with such a stacked lineup at Astana, but all it needs is something like a win at the Tour of Austria (I know, he won't do it if he does the Tour, but you know what I mean), and his record of seasons at more than double his cost make me hesitate to leave him out. One of the last additions, though.
Goss - he can't do worse than last year. He can't.
Battaglin - this is the third year in a row I've got him, so he's gotta produce sometime, right? Pre-crash Giro performance last year showed he's got the flash he was supposed to - with Modolo leaving, I'm crossing my fingers he gets more chances.
Van Baarle - one of the last additions, I'm worried he may go the way of many dutch youngsters and underperform relative to the U23 ranks for a bit. That said, a solid TT and all-round resume should fit nicely with Garmin. I'm thinking more success in 2.1 North American races than ripping up the European scene. 500 points max, and could swing anywhere to below his price, but I'm hopeful.
Craddock - another late addition, what got me was the fact that he'll have a good set of chances at the developing GiantShimano team. His 5th in the U23 TT was the last pleasant surprise last year, after the American races.
Coppel - his inexplicable drop in results is worrisome, but it can't be worse, right? Although the curse of Cofidis kept me from picking both him and Taaramae, because that team just has too much incompetence that would break my heart if I had 2 of them.
De Gendt - I don't actually know how well he'll do, he's pretty mercurial and he might be buried a bit at OPQS. The last addition to my team, if he shows up he can get 500.
Boonen - no explanation necessary. Third time I've had this guy in 4 years.
Howson - Great TTers always get some chances; I don't expect a first year as successful as Durbridge's, but there's gotta be some 3-day race or a few where he pulls out a top 5 based on good TT results.
Bennett - a late addition but I'm happy I included him, especially since he's relatively unique. What really got me was him beating Viviani (and only losing to Cav) in a stage of the ToB last year - even if that was the top of his ability, if he can pull that out a couple of times (and win a few of the smaller races he's sure to get a chance at with NetApp), he'll be more than worth it.
Teklehaimanot - with more opportunities at MTN than Greenedge (plus hopefully no Visa problems this year), his much-vaunted 'engine' should carry him up the ladder of results. I went back and forth on him for awhile, but I decided in the end to throw my lot in with him.
Ewan - yes there's a ceiling, but it's high enough to make it worthwhile, and the floor is high enough to make it a no-brainer. I can't see him doing worse in U23 races, and I could see him doing considerably better. The guy is money, he's been beating WT riders since he was 17, making him the most obvious sprint prospect I've ever seen. He finished 4th on an incredibly hard Worlds RR; on an easier course with a bigger sprint, he could easily win which would give him 36 extra points from that race alone. Throw in another Ncup win of 30 points, plus 50-100 points from the early Aussie races, plus the same from late-season stagaire races, and I see 300 as an easy bar for him to clear. Maybe not, but the lowest he can get makes him a non-gamble.
Schleck - Turn his top 20 into a top 10 and give him a couple of other results for the year and it's hard to turn him down.
Dombrowski - he's too good for last year's level to be where he's at again.
Vanendert - meh, I threw him in at the end because he has enough opportunity to get 400 points, which is a fine return.
Lutsenko - I didn't pick him last year because I thought he'd need a year to adjust; now he has it. No way Astana doesn't give a rider of his calibre from Kazakhstan a bunch of chances.
Formolo - coming as an amateur without a team and getting top spots in Aosta and Avenir, combined with being on a Cannondale squad that has few overall contenders and a good amount of small Italian races, and he's worth the investment.
Colli - see Vanendert, change to 350 points.
Anacona - I shook my head at him last year. Why did Lampre not use him earlier (even after recovery from the broken ankle) with such an impressive showing at the Vuelta as a neo, especially with their lack of depth? Why did he do so poorly at the Vuelta? Tempted to not even take him until I saw he was starting at San Luis, which at least gave me hopes he might ride a full season.
Chaves - of course.
Gerdemann - of course.
Thoughts? Disagreements?