The 2015 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

[Hugo Koblet]

I think it meant how many points less you'd score if you picked the next best rider in the same price category??

I think this is correct. It's worth noting that it doesn't mean that the next best team would score x points less (because you could create other more profitable constellations instead).

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

ugh.... I hope this doesn't forebode Porte going all mutant on us again this year, if that's the case I can quit the game already.

That's frustrating about this game for me; I always miss one or two obvious good picks and I end up with mediocre results.

 

[Tigerion]

So I have Porte and Bobridge, I wonder if this is the only time I'll ever be in the lead of the competition (If I actually am)

 

[will10]

I considered Quintana only long enough to see that he scored very highly in more or less everything he rode last year. Yes he crashed out of the Vuelta but is only riding one GT this year, so to some extent a successful Tour '15 would only cover his '14 Giro win. Considering that he doesn't do a lot of racing compared to some of the big hitters, I thought the room for improvement was pretty slim with a risk that if he doesn't get through the first week of the Tour he may not hit four figures. The riskiest of the "big four" potential picks (Purito, Quintana, Froome, Sagan) this year IMO.

 

[GP Blanco]

Viviani's already been doing that for years at Cannondale with 85 racing days per year. And considering Sky doesn't ride most of the Italian .1 races he will miss out on a lot of points.

But he didn't race the Italian calendar at Cannondale. Last year he won only Bernocchi and stage 3 Settimana Coppi e Bartali. Most of his points are from Giro and foreign races. The biggest drawback will be his support and the fact he wants to focus more on track cycling.

 

[Vesica]

So I have Porte and Bobridge, I wonder if this is the only time I'll ever be in the lead of the competition (If I actually am)

I have Porte, Dennis and Flakemore in my team

 

[Ferminal]

Good to be outside the top 100, higher than I expected though. Surprised that some bigger names are only single digit popularity - Schleck, Scarponi, Mancebo (really surprised only Hitch and search picked him), El Fares. Yeh they are all massively borderline so stupid to run the gauntlet on several of them but still expected more fanboys or nutters. They are potential big scorers and along with other potential high scorers with low-medium popularity (Basso, Anton, Pozzato, Sepulveda, Dayer, Froome, Purito) there is the potential for decent gains.

The strategy usually comes unstuck fairly soon though, looking at my 2014 team there is about a dozen disasters with Contador disguising a horrible season.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

I considered Quintana only long enough to see that he scored very highly in more or less everything he rode last year. Yes he crashed out of the Vuelta but is only riding one GT this year, so to some extent a successful Tour '15 would only cover his '14 Giro win. Considering that he doesn't do a lot of racing compared to some of the big hitters, I thought the room for improvement was pretty slim with a risk that if he doesn't get through the first week of the Tour he may not hit four figures. The riskiest of the "big four" potential picks (Purito, Quintana, Froome, Sagan) this year IMO.

Quintana is scheduled to ride the Tour and the Vuelta. That was always the plan. Maybe he won't race the Vuelta if he wins the Tour, but he'll be racing more this year, regardless.

Out of the four popular expensive picks, I'd say Froome is the riskiest pick because he has the poorest bike handling skills of the lot. Sagan the least risky pick, for the same reason.

 

[PeterB]

Surprised that I'm the only on to pick Viviani

I'm not sure if this is correct, I can see 8 or 9 teams (depending on which spreadsheet is final) with Viviani, including mine.

Personally I believe he is a sprinter with 1000 pts. potential, but it's truth that Sky is not necessarily the best team for him.

 

[fauniera]

Quintana is scheduled to ride the Tour and the Vuelta. That was always the plan. Maybe he won't race the Vuelta if he wins the Tour, but he'll be racing more this year, regardless.

I think his program after the Tour is quite open, but if he doesn't ride the Vuelta he should be good at the Italian autumn classics. He could also be really good in the Ardennes.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

On Froome, Rodriguez, Quintana and Sagan: First, I really love that there are so many valid expensive picks this year. It makes the game really interesting.

The way I see it, Froome is the riskiest pick but with the biggest potential gain. He's quite fragile and having his season ruined by injuries and crashes is quite a bit more probable than for other riders. On the other hand, he could realistically repeat his 2013 season making him a very, very good pick. Contador doing the Giro-Tour double is good for Froome as well.

Sagan I actually like more and more although I don't have him myself. As others have mentioned, he's not very risky and could potentially double his score. In my opinion, that's not very likely, though, but I do think that he will show a good profit.

Quintana I never considered for that long. I don't think he'll improve much on his 2014 score, max 2000.

Rodriguez is a pretty safe card in my opinion. He'll likely provide a decent return and it's very unlikely that he won't show a profit.

 

[cineteq]

So I have Porte and Bobridge, I wonder if this is the only time I'll ever be in the lead of the competition (If I actually am)

You're not alone, so you might not be in the lead
Btw, I'm wondering the same thing....

 

[Skibby the bush kangaroo]

Good to see skibby back with the stats.

I have no idea how the -penalty for exclusion table was worked out.

You look all possible teams that didn't include the particular rider and find the optimum team amongst those.

For instance the best possible team that didn't include Gerrans scored 25352 points, whereas the absolute best team (including Gerrnas) scored 26042, so his penalty is 690. In contrast without using Mauro Finetto you can still find a team that scores 26018, so his penalty is only 24.

 

[Jancouver]

I'm not sure if this is correct, I can see 8 or 9 teams (depending on which spreadsheet is final) with Viviani, including mine.

Personally I believe he is a sprinter with 1000 pts. potential, but it's truth that Sky is not necessarily the best team for him.

Viviani is on 9 teams

Yesterday I posted the popularity stats

http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showpost.php?p=1622176

and unique picks

http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showpost.php?p=1622177

 

[Hugo Koblet]

You look all possible teams that didn't include the particular rider and find the optimum team amongst those.

For instance the best possible team that didn't include Gerrans scored 25352 points, whereas the absolute best team (including Gerrnas) scored 26042, so his penalty is 690. In contrast without using Mauro Finetto you can still find a team that scores 26018, so his penalty is only 24.

OK, then I was not right it seems. That's pretty crazy actually.

 

[the sceptic]

can we get a points update before my team drops into mid table obscurity?

 

[sublimit]

I got 4 into the top 7 of the ITT but no points are awarded yet?

 

[LaFlorecita]

I got 4 into the top 7 of the ITT but no points are awarded yet?

Subs wtf 4 Aussie tters

Look on CQranking there's provisional results now

 

[cineteq]

Obsessed for missing out on Sagan, made a team constrained to Sagan. Popularity points: 2161, a 128 points better than popularity-team leader: The Sceptic, and 98 worst than the team I made constrained to Purito. (hope the math is right)

Rider Points Popularity
SAGAN Peter 1606 35
CAVENDISH Mark 642 118
BETANCUR GOMEZ Carlos Alberto 616 84
TALANSKY Andrew 534 52
BOOM Lars 421 34
PORTE Richie 415 124
PHINNEY Taylor 320 30
GESINK Robert 274 115
STANNARD Ian 250 72
JUNGELS Bob 240 49
YATES Simon 207 107
TEUNS Dylan 167 47
QUINTANA ROJAS Dayer Uberney 161 41
STUYVEN Jasper 158 41
ENGER Sondre Holst 118 29
ZABEL Rick 116 17
ELISSONDE Kenny 115 37
VERVAEKE Louis 115 32
KÜNG Stefan 103 30
ATAPUMA HURTADO Jhon Darwin 102 69
HENAO GOMEZ Sebastian 96 60
EWAN Caleb 95 130
HENAO MONTOYA Sergio Luis 92 132
MOSER Moreno 87 116
LATOUR Pierre-Roger 71 30
LOPEZ MORENO Miguel Angel 69 57
GOSS Matthew 66 106
SCHUMACHER Stefan 60 36
MOHORIC Matej 55 59
DE GENDT Thomas 54 94
KUMP Marko 28 34
DOMBROWSKI Joseph Lloyd 10 114
MORTON Lachlan 0 30
Totals 7463 2161

 

[postmanhat]

Viviani is on 9 teams

Yesterday I posted the popularity stats

http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showpost.php?p=1622176

and unique picks

http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showpost.php?p=1622177

Have gone for Viviani too. Sky got have had very few sprint results since Cav so presumably they'll back him, and have plenty of firepower to do so. Bit of a fanboy pick as a his positional sense is still dodgy, but am hoping for +300 at least

 

[skidmark]

For those itching for some CQ action, I manually entered the results of the Aussie TT into the spreadsheets and here are some rankings:

1. Roderick 111 (Porte, Dennis, Durbridge, Hepburn)
2. Handbrake 108 (Porte, Dennis, Howson, Hepburn)
3. npetalactone 105 (the podium)
4. trackstand 97
5. ansimi 94
5. Blues in the bottle 94
5. Vesica 94
8. sublimit 92
9. Armchair cyclist 91
9. Object 91
11. The Amateur 87
12. Jancouver 84
12. Martin 84
12. the sceptic 84
15. Peter B, skidmark, theyoungest, tom-jelte, Yellow Knight with 80

Official update after Sunday, this is just for those of us who are raring to go. There are only 16 teams who don't have a point yet from this one day of racing - more interestingly, there are 12 teams who have between 1 and 49 points (well, 11 and 39 to be exact), meaning they don't have the near-ubiquitous Porte but have picked other riders that scored.

 

[Jancouver]

For those itching for some CQ action, I manually entered the results of the Aussie TT into the spreadsheets and here are some rankings:

1. Roderick 111 (Porte, Dennis, Durbridge, Hepburn)
2. Handbrake 108 (Porte, Dennis, Howson, Hepburn)
3. npetalactone 105 (the podium)
4. trackstand 97
5. ansimi 94
5. Blues in the bottle 94
5. Vesica 94
8. sublimit 92
9. Armchair cyclist 91
9. Object 91
11. The Amateur 87
12. Jancouver 84
12. Martin 84
12. the sceptic 84
15. Peter B, skidmark, theyoungest, tom-jelte, Yellow Knight with 80

Official update after Sunday, this is just for those of us who are raring to go. There are only 16 teams who don't have a point yet from this one day of racing - more interestingly, there are 12 teams who have between 1 and 49 points (well, 11 and 39 to be exact), meaning they don't have the near-ubiquitous Porte but have picked other riders that scored.

I should frame this as this is probably the last time I will see my name in one of these updates

Edit: Luckily you did not included just the usual top 10 otherwise my name wouldn't be here either ...

 

[skidmark]

I should frame this as this is probably the last time I will see my name in one of these updates

Edit: Luckily you did not included just the usual top 10 otherwise my name wouldn't be here either ...

Well I figured since I wasn't linking a full spreadsheet I'd give more extensive results summary... plus if I went down to 15th my name showed up too, ha.

 

[Tigerion]

For those itching for some CQ action, I manually entered the results of the Aussie TT into the spreadsheets and here are some rankings:

Sheesh, didn't even rank in the top 15 with just Porte and Bobridge. At one stage I had Porte,Bobridge,Durbridge, Howson and Hepburn in my team.

Damn me for worrying about have a team that was to Aussie heavy.

I'm not sure if this is correct, I can see 8 or 9 teams (depending on which spreadsheet is final) with Viviani, including mine.

Personally I believe he is a sprinter with 1000 pts. potential, but it's truth that Sky is not necessarily the best team for him.

Yeah I must have messed up my ordering or something when looking at this. If he does will he could be an import pick for us.

 

[skidmark]

Sagan and Purito (despite having different characteristics) are both perfectly fitted for the CQ ranking module. They ride fast from February until September and excel on various types of terrain. I think it’s extremely plausible to claim Sagan could win any race from San-Remo to Liege Bastogne Liege for example (I don’t think he will win Liege this year) but potentially one day why not; he is just about as talented as they come.

I don’t see any sings of Purito slowing down what-so ever either. I re-watched a lot of the Vuelta on Youtube (in preparation to this game) and he still looks incredible, explosive and lucid on the bike. Climbing wise he is a notch below Contador, Froome and Quintana (in my opinion) but he always kind of been, and it has never stopped him from vacuuming lots of CQ points anyway!!!

It’s become almost an cliché to us the East-European disease phrase, but in Sagan’s case, it’s the only thing that has me wondering. Too much too soon? He earned a ton of money and who knows if it affects him a little mentally. I personally don’t think so, but that’s a question mark I thought of though… the reason I didn’t choose him myself is because he is up against great competitions in the Classics, for example, I think Sep Vanmarcke will be very, very hard to beat in Flanders and Roubaix ect Degenkolb, in San Remo and so on…

I picked Quintana myself. Nairo is a greedy competitor. Everyone around him highlights his firm mind-set and burning desire to always win, which I also hink is reflected in the way he rides his bike… This year many of the tours are extremely mountainous, not only the Tour de France, but also Tour de Suisse (with the TT up Rettenbachgletscher) good luck beating Quintana there, Tirreno-Adriatico will probably be decided on Terminillo, even races like Ruta del Sol will have a super finish on Hazallanas…

Anyway most of all I am just convinced myself Quintana, this year will manifest himself as the best GT rider in the world and thereby also score minimum 2000 points (barring accidents)… Then we can debate if its worth it or not, since he was rather expensive in the first place but my answer would be yes, because he at least is a pretty good and secure investment in banking those 1551 points, lots of riders in the 300 or 400 category are more insecure because lower caliber riders often have more ups and downs in their careers, where riders like Quintana (or Sagan and Purito if you will) have so much class they always are among the best in the world no matter what and no matter where they race. Again barring accidents. Another strategy is spreading the risk and go for a more all-round team... Despite having Quintana, I have tried that this year myself.

Anyway. Even if they don’t make a huge profit, they at least are a good bet to bring home their point already from this year (2014) if you can follow my logic… anyway that's just my take on things.

The highlighted above is probably a key factor in what we tell ourselves about any of our picks, and likely especially our big, expensive ones... it's almost a process of talking ourselves into it, convincing ourselves that this is going to be it, the best year for these guys. Part of this is cheering for the rider, in a sense, which I always try to stamp out in picking a CQ team but never really can. For me, it's not that I 'like' Sagan so much as I cheer for him to succeed because my sense of history gets really excited when such a strong talent comes around so young because his palmares have a chance to build to the point of being in the discussion as the best riders ever (I know, in cycling there is never going to be a discussion about the best rider - singular - ever), and despite my resentment of anything/body too dominant, part of me still wants to follow one of the best ever from the first pedal stroke. So it wasn't hard for me to convince myself of Sagan. Rodriguez is somewhat similar - him and Valv deservedly take a lot of flak for their predictable and relatively 'safe' riding style, but I find myself cheering for Purito and Valv in a more detached way for the same reason I used to like, or maybe more accurately, respect, Rebellin - because they go for the best placing they can in every race they do.

Anyway, neither Sagan nor Rodriguez are riders I'm most passionate about in the peloton - to me, riders who make races exciting, whose talent and panache I can get excited about, like Conti, Aru, Formolo, are different than riders whom I respect for their talent and consistent effort (and in turn are different than riders I can love in an almost condescendingly precious way for their animation and trying to punch above their weight, like Machado or Txurruka, or even kind of lovingly dislike for their over-the-topness like Pirazzi). In short, if I really loved Froome (I don't), it would be easy for me to convince myself that he was going to have another year like 2013 - heck, it didn't take much convincing for me to take a similarly-priced Contador last year. But if it didn't pan out, I'd be kicking myself for wasting a pick on someone I didn't even want to cheer for. Someone like Porte on my team (and to a lesser extent Cav), I'm not too fond of, but recognize that he's going to be way better than last year. I like Nairo, and could see the upside, but the intersection of a palatable rider to cheer for and cold hard logic intersected better with Sagan and Purito than it did for Nairo or Froome, with me.

Anyway, appreciate the discussion from everyone here about this.