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The 2016 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

Page 30 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.
Strange week for me. Kwiats win was great but the fact that I don't have the very common picks TJVG and Gaviria who both made lots of points this week so at the end it was only mediocre.

Btw, can anyone explain to me what the color of the "return" percentage in the updates means? I noticed that mine was green although I only have 36% which is actually pretty bad.
 
Gigs_98 said:
Strange week for me. Kwiats win was great but the fact that I don't have the very common picks TJVG and Gaviria who both made lots of points this week so at the end it was only mediocre.

Btw, can anyone explain to me what the color of the "return" percentage in the updates means? I noticed that mine was green although I only have 36% which is actually pretty bad.

Yeah, I dunno about the 'return' column, that was grandfathered into the spreadsheet. For individual riders it's green if it's over 100%, but obviously on the first sheet it's inconsistent when describing the percentage of a team. I'm colourblind so I haven't really paid attention to that! I don't know how to program that in excel actually.
 
Well, here's my week:

3 Days of de Panne

Marcel Kittel
Tony Martin
Taylor Phinney
Magnus Cort
Phil Bauhaus
Sylvain Chavanel
Adrien Petit
EM Grosu
Matt Goss

Wow that's a lot of guys for de Panne. If Tony Martin can hang on the first stage he's got a great shot of the overall, but I was skeptical of the Tony Martin Cobbles Experiment and so far my skepticism has been right. We will see. Phinney, same deal, maybe he can hang on the hills but it's not the most likely scenario. Chavanel would be a great bet normally (he's won here twice) but he missed DDV and E3 with sickness and basically finished last in G-W (in true Chava fashion, fighting through without giving up). So, if he's recovered, then great, but I'm certainly not sure if he has.

The other guys could all theoretically feature in the sprints, in Goss' case almost purely theoretically.

two French races

Yannick Martinez

I was supposed to have Guillaume Martin finally start his season here, but of course Wanty withdrew due to the death of Demoitie.

two Spanish races (only the first has startlist now)

Carlos Betancur
Lawson Craddock

GP Mig seems like the perfect race for an in-form Betancur... but this is 'just started the season and haven't finished a race yet' Betancur. We'll see. The lack of depth favours an in-form Craddock to get some points, so I'll be hoping.

Flanders

Fabian Cancellara
Jasper Stuyven
Taylor Phinney
Arnaud Demare
Magnus Cort
Sylvain Chavanel
Adrien Petit

Hmm, if only there was a way to tell if one of these guys was in form right now... oh yeah, it's pretty much Cancellara and everyone else. Chava would be a good threat for top 5 or 10 normally, but see my comments on de Panne. Demare and Phinney will have better chances in Roubaix, and I feel like Stuyven, Cort and Petit aren't strong enough to make the finale in a meaningful way - I could be wrong about Stuyven, but if he was killing himself to hang on and stay with Fabian in E3, there's no way he'll do it 60km further down the road.
 
Whoa, nice to be among the leaders! Hopefully I'll be able to keep up in this fierce competition. Here's a small status on my team so far. I've excluded the most common picks like Cancellara, Demare and Lopez.

Kwiatkowski:

Decent but not more than that. His 435 points might look like a lot, but it's not even that good - he's 63 points behind his 2015 score - although I'll admit that it's hard to draw comparisons like this, as he's actually ahead of his 2014 score. The most important thing is that he's in good form and could score a lot in the spring. Then he just needs to do something later in the season as well.

Tony Martin:

Not good. He has rarely scored a lot at this time of year, so it's not the points I'm worried about at this point. It's his racing program and his form as he hasn't looked very comfortable on the cobbles so far. Hopefully he can score a decent amount of points in Driedaagse De Panne where he's the bookies' favorite.

Van Garderen:

55 points ahead of last year, but more importantly he looks quite good this year in my opinion. I'm pretty confident.

Daniel Martin:

Scored a lot of nice points in Catalunya and looks good for the Ardennes. I'm very confident that he'll turn out to be a great pick.

Meersman:

Quite disappointing as he's way behind last years points and hasn't looked very good so far. I'm not even sure where he's supposed to score big points this year. That said, he's a very good rider and it's hard for him to turn out to be a real flop. However, I don't think he'll do much for my team.

Arredondo:

I have no idea what's going on with this guy, and honestly I haven't really researched him. He was injuried/sick last year, right? He doesn't look like someone who'll get back on track anytime soon. Could be a big mistake to have picked him.

Cort Nielsen:

He was so talented, but I'm not sure what's going on. He's been used solely as a domestique so far which is rather disappointing. That said, 5 points doesn't really reflect his level this year, I think. Although in the end, it's only the points that count. As Arredondo, he could turn out to be a big mistake.

Pozzato:

One of the positive surprises for me this year. He has been completely anonymous but produced two results that almost makes him break even already. I had no idea what to expect from him but I figured that the potential was too good to miss out on. He just needs to produce a few more results in big races for him to already be a good pick.

Mezgec:

I don't know. I completely forgot he existed until he suddently finished 12th in Gent-Wevelgem and actually was looking quite good. That said, I won't get my hopes up too high and in the end he'll probably turn out to be a slightly bad pick I think.

Bystrøm:

Has been doing OK, raking up some points here and there. I'm disappointed that he won't ride Driedaagse De Panne as it was his performances here last year that made me pick him for this edition and I believe he could do well in races like these. I hope he'll get to ride his own chances in the Norwegian races but with Kristoff in the team, the chances are that he won't.

Ciolek:

I haven't seen him a single time this season yet. It's weird, he should be able to do very well.

Villella:

Can't really complain. I need him to take a step up from last year and so far it's hard to tell if he can do that. A 10th in Critérium International doesn't say much, but the points are nice.

Moscon:

Another positive surprise. We all knew he was talented but the real question was if he would get any chances to ride for himself. Turns out he did and it's nice that he's getting results this early in the season as he then might get a few more chances later on.

I won't go in detail with the rest of my cheaper riders as the season is still young and just a few results can make a rider go from a bad pick to a very good pick, so I don't think an assessment of their current status does a whole lot.
 
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Kwiatkowski is looking like a good pick. I didn't pick him because I thought he went to Sky to go focus on stage racing, which Etixx wouldn't let him do. I don't have a lot of faith in Kwiatko for stage racing, but if he's still winning E3, it looks like it will work out for him. If he pulls off a good Ardennes campaign he could be looking at a very good year.........
 
You know it was a high scoring week when you drop nine spots to the 92nd place while scoring 735 points.

Driedaagse De Panne-Koksijde
KITTEL Marcel
MARTIN Tony
LUTSENKO Alexey
PHINNEY Taylor
MULLEN Ryan
MEZGEC Luka

All of them have possibilities to score some points.

GP Miguel Indurain and possibly Rioja
BETANCUR GOMEZ Carlos Alberto
YATES Adam
HAIG Jack

Yates will be one of the favorites.

Ronde van Vlaanderen
PHINNEY Taylor
LUTSENKO Alexey
LANGEVELD Sebastian
DEMARE Arnaud
QUINTANA ROJAS Dayer Uberney
MEZGEC Luka

A top-10 would surprise me.
 
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Driedaagse De Panne-Koksijde
KITTEL, Marcel
MARTIN, Tony
PHINNEY, Taylor
POZZATO, Filippo

Route Adéie de Vitré
PACIONI, Luca
MARTINEZ, Yannick

Gran Premio Miguel Indurain
RESTREPO, Jhonatan
BETANCUR, Carlos
LANDA, Mikel

Ronde van Vlaanderen
CANCELLARA, Fabian
PHINNEY, Taylor
DÉMARE, Arnaud
POZZATO, Filippo

Cobbled classics is just about surviving for me. I just need to not fall too far behind coming weeks so I can close the gap to the front group in the Giro with the Nibali + Landa combo :p
 
Re:

Hugo Koblet said:
Arredondo:

I have no idea what's going on with this guy, and honestly I haven't really researched him. He was injuried/sick last year, right? He doesn't look like someone who'll get back on track anytime soon. Could be a big mistake to have picked him.

He had a long-term problem with, I can't remember now, either something in his leg or his back? But I read some interviews with him at the end of last year where he said he was getting some kind of treatment involving some kind of mouth guard and he was feeling better. However, in those same interviews, he kind of made a couple of comments like 'I felt like giving up sometimes; we'll see if it works this year and if it doesn't, I dunno". That dropped him off my longlist straight away, as I was worried he was already halfway out the door mentally. That's always a risk - I didn't pick up Jeanneson for similar reasons and he's doing great. I picked up Goss because he was cheap and he seems like a shell of a shell of his former self. Anyway, on a human level I hope Arredondo gets it together but I worry that his injury affected his determination, which is a key component in cycling obviously.
 
I'll already predict Popchu as the weekly winner :)

I have nothing special for this week, so it's another one where I should keep up decently while waiting for my jokers Jungels and Kreuziger to ride again. A Pozzato top 5 in De Ronde would have been nice though.

I'm very happy that Tony Martin is finally riding a race that suits him. A few teams above me have profited so far by not having him, and some Tony points now would make me feel a lot more comfortable about my team. If he can somehow manage to wrestle forty seconds away from Westra on Thursday, that would be awesome, and put him ahead of schedule points wise. A podium overall is more likely though, and will still put him back on track. He is likely to win one or two 2.1/HC stage races, and with all the TT points on offer throughout the season, I still think he will be a very good pick.

skidmark said:
If Tony Martin can hang on the first stage he's got a great shot of the overall, but I was skeptical of the Tony Martin Cobbles Experiment and so far my skepticism has been right. We will see.

I don't agree. I think the cobbles experiment was good for him points-wise. He has ridden Algarve & Tirreno anyway. Where else would he be riding and picking up points if he didn't ride the cobbles? Pais Vasco? He doesn't seem to be climbing well, so not a lot of points there (it's strange though, because he said he had improved his climbing due to Rio).

Hadn't he been riding the cobbles, he would most likely not have ridden De Panne, which looks like it could be 100+ GC points and quite possibly a stage win.
 
After another week of regretting the ommision of Cancellara, there's hopefully a little light in the dark. Two of my rarer picks Westra and Lutsenko placed themselves (although seemingly rather silly looking today) in perfect position for atleast a top5 placing in DDV.

If Seb Henao would just outdo Nairo et all in GP Miguel Indurain I almost won't miss the great Swiss' possible great outcome on sunday.
 
Re:

Squire said:
skidmark said:
If Tony Martin can hang on the first stage he's got a great shot of the overall, but I was skeptical of the Tony Martin Cobbles Experiment and so far my skepticism has been right. We will see.

I don't agree. I think the cobbles experiment was good for him points-wise. He has ridden Algarve & Tirreno anyway. Where else would he be riding and picking up points if he didn't ride the cobbles? Pais Vasco? He doesn't seem to be climbing well, so not a lot of points there (it's strange though, because he said he had improved his climbing due to Rio).

Hadn't he been riding the cobbles, he would most likely not have ridden De Panne, which looks like it could be 100+ GC points and quite possibly a stage win.

Yeah I guess I wasn't thinking of it points-wise. I just mean that he doesn't seem to be settling in comfortably on the cobbles - I know it makes sense physiologically that a TT rouler kinda guy would maybe do well on the cobbles, but I thought EQS was drawing that conclusion from the fact that he won the TdF cobbles stage, which was raced rather tepidly and was also nowhere near the length and number of difficulties as the classics. He has seemed to definitely be uncomfortable in the thick of things so far.

But you're right, he'll be doing fine points-wise if he podiums at de Panne, which is exactly the kind of thing that would get him points, a short stage race where if you can hang with the main bunch and TT well you can get a good overall. I just don't think he's gonna go land in the top 10 of Flanders or Roubaix anytime soon, or ever - I picked him despite EQS's plan for him, as there are plenty of other chances to score this year (TdF, Olympics, Worlds).
 
de Panne turning out okay. As Hugo said, 4th was the highest realistic hope for Tony Martin - 10 points lost for the stage win by less than a second, but that's okay, 99 points on the day for Tony. And Chavanel did as best as possible for him, 74 points for 5th and more importantly, looks recovered from sickness before the Ronde. I really need a good result from Chava at the Ronde, because Roubaix is less his cup of tea and other than Brabantse Pijl that's probably the end of this part of the season, although he has the potential in any given small French race really. And for my team, maybe even more significant is how fast Bauhaus looked in stage 3a! Holy crow, he challenged Kittel right up to the last 25 meters, and beat Kristoff! That is impressive - if he can make it to the end of races, he'll rack up some points by the end of the year.

And as per Squire's comment about Martin getting as many/more points on the cobbles than any other program, I did have a look at his last several years and going back to 2011 (the year he won Paris-Nice), he actually is ahead of 2012, 2014 and 2015 at this point (only trailing 2013). And in 2012 - not coincidentally the last year there was an Olympic TT - he ended up with 1500 points. So there's a long season ahead, but it's good to get some points on the board from the cobbles.
 
Good start this week for me again :

With Westra as a rare pick, I'm on a real winning streak
And Kittel, Bauhaus, Tony Martin all managed to score a bit

I really have to score a lot next two weeks because I don't have many GT riders or even puncheurs