So I was pretty busy with the whole 'putting together the spreadsheet and teams' side of things and never found time to analyze my own team. I know, I know, it's a self-indulgent exercise, but I like reading these things from other people to see what their thought processes were on riders, and I love talking about this game, so I'm going to do my team now. Most popular to least, numbers in parentheses are cost/popularity:
John Degenkolb (550/116)
Elia Viviani (275/103)
Obviously. I find there are themes every year for picking players, and 'slam dunk rider with awful year due to injury/misfortune' is a clear one, but a more cyclical one that doesn't come up every year is 'track guy who is focusing on road now that Olympics are done' (or, conversely, 'TT guy that I'm picking because he has the Olympics AND Worlds to score big points' last year).
Adriano Malori (2/93) - I was surprised to see that he's the third most popular rider. I came very close to not having him on my team, and really, I don't think I should have him on my team. It is a miracle that he's able to walk and ride a bike at all, let alone that he could come back before the end of the season last year. To think he will be anything more than pack fodder this year is definitely wishful thinking. From a game standpoint, yeah I could see the 'if he costs two points do you want to risk not having him if he gets 600 points' angle of it. But he's not going to get 600 points. I'd be surprised if he even gets 200. But... like I said, it's a miracle he's made it this far. I'm rooting for him. I want to believe in his story. So I've kind of overcome game logic to pick someone I want to see succeed. We will see, I hope he at least finishes some races in the first half of the season.
Fabio Aru (777/92)
Benat Intxausti (79/87)
Mikel Landa (479/82)
These are all obvious picks in different ways. Aru, simply by the fact that he's going for 2 GTs (and the two ones in which it's easier for him to podium) is an obvious pick. Intxausti is cheap and regardless of where he's at in training and recovery, I think he has the potential to top 15 a GT if he's helping his leader. And Landa feels like the real deal, not some kind of Igor Anton 1-year form-of-his-life thing. Landa was a clear talent early on, and when he podiumed the Giro it felt more like 'finally' than 'wtf'.
Leopold Konig (264/81) - boring, grind-it-out type pick that you have to make. I mean, even if he was still with Sky he'd be a good pick, if not for that one crazy day in the Vuelta he'd have a couple hundred more points. But back on Bora? Hells yeah, less than 5-600 would be a surprise.
Rob Power (77/80) - Come on, he was sick all year, had 13 race days, and podiums Japan Cup? He is going to rip it up. Possibly the easiest pick on the team.
Alexis Gougeard (107/74) - I feel ambivalent about this pick. I think that, as I believe Squire said way back in the thread, rouleurs like him have somewhat of an upper limit on their points total, and he hit his in 2015. Nothing in particular went wrong for him last year. But if he has a run of form, he could be good. Unfortunately, as I was looking over riders again and again and again, what made me put him in on the 5th or 6th pass was that AG2R released their early season schedule and he was down for Qatar. "That's the perfect race for him, and it'll offer more points this year", I said to myself, and put him in the lineup. Then Qatar was cancelled, but by that point I had my whole team locked in and there was no one right in his range that I thought was clearly a better choice and I didn't have time to bother switching around several riders... so here we are. I think he'll do just fine, but with the .1 and .HC races disappearing left and right on the French calendar, I'm not so sure how many chances he'll get to pick up points here and there.
Owain Doull (7/73) - I'm definitely averse to picking neo-pros with Sky, but a) he costs 7 points, b) he's shifting focus from track, and c) his podium in Britain in 2015 showed he's got road pedigree. No-doubter for me.
Julian Arredondo (17/72) - I was all set to pick him last year for 217 points or whatever he cost, but then I read the interview where he talked about his leg problems, and the general tone was 'I hope we can fix it this year, and if not I'll have to maybe think about leaving cycling'. He sounded like he had one foot out the door, and if things went bad, I thought he might pack it in. He had a terrible season. And yet, here he is, he's switched teams and he's still going for it, and although I haven't read anything comprehensive on it, there seems to be a belief that his issues are resolved. So, I've gotta believe he thinks he can do it, and it can't get worse, and there will be plenty of the races that got him over 600 points a few years ago. For 17 points? Yes please.
Michal Kwiatkowski (611/62) - I am surprised he is this far down on the popularity list. Yes, Sky uses strong riders as workhorses in the GTs and that takes away from their points potential (coughBoassonHagencough), but Kwiat's so versatile! (plus he's won big stuff, unlike EBH) Even in a 'crappy' year like last year, he pulled out the win in E3, didn't have good luck in the Ardennes where he could usually romp, and had a combination of bad form and bad luck the rest of the year in only 56 race days. There's nothing in that year that makes me think his choice of team, or anything systemic at all, will inhibit his points potential in a substantial way. A fantastic TTer, good fast finisher, guy who can get up mountains when he needs to... he can score in almost any given race. Sure he hasn't hit that sustained vein of form for a couple of years, but to me that just suggests that he's due, not that he's lost it.
Matvey Mamykin (199/49) - ooh, my first pick who didn't miss substantial time or have bad luck last year! Sometimes talent is undeniable, and you can see a rider just needs a bit more experience to be able to make attacks stick and score big. Such is the case with Mamykin, who repeatedly impressed at in the latter part of the season. Of course, sometimes a rider just gets some form for a bit and you see a glimmer and mistake it as lasting talent. I've almost made that mistake before with someone like Egor Silin, who looked strong in some breaks in the Tour one year but hasn't really done anything since (although I didn't pick him anyway). But Mamykin also has some strong GC results in his first year, so I'm reassured that he's actually the real deal.
Guillaume Van Keirsbulck (61/48) - speaking of seeing glimmers of talent. This guy looked like the next Boonen at age 20, and.... has sort of been okay since then. I think this is my third time picking him in this game, and I didn't hesitate. A guy who shows strength on the cobbles, is great in the TT, and is moving to a PCT that is gonna make him leader? Sounds like potential winning recipe. I mean, QuickStep usually don't get it wrong with rider development, so I'm wary that there's something in him that's just not ever gonna be a winner. But at 61 points, he should have a million chances this year and he has the power to do a late attack and stay away, or have a good TT and place highly in something like De Panne, and other lower-than-WT races. Could be a good year.
Stefan Kung (225/47) - is he a guy who's had bad luck for a couple of years or is he someone who can't stay healthy for a whole season? I'm betting the former. He's so strong, and his poise winning that Suisse stage as a neo-pro (Suisse, right? I'm going by memory here) was a notable harbinger of things to come, I thought. Anyway, young, does a great TT, has potential in the classics, I am happy to have him on my team.
Joe Dombrowski (158/46) - hope springs eternal. I thought after crushing it in Utah in 2015 he'd take it a step higher and have some impressive WT showings in 2016. But, nope, although 2 GTs completed is good for development, and he looked increasingly impressive in those Giro breaks so I'm sure he would've won a stage if it had gone 4 weeks. Yeah, he's now the most picked rider of all time, okay. But putting the pieces together, he had health problems for a couple of years and was buried at Sky, had a breakthrough year in 2015 where he won the hardest 1-weeker in America, had a different breakthrough where he did 2 GTs (he had only done 1 before) and looked strongest in the third week in both of them... those puzzle pieces have to come together sometime. Vaughters seems to have a personal investment in his training, so it's not hard to see him getting opportunities for himself. Or, maybe I'll be picking him next year for 12 points or something.
Kris Boeckmans (60/45) - I don't actually think his realistic ceiling is that high. 300? 200? But his dream fantasy ceiling is of course the 600 or so he had pre-crash. His best results were earlier last year, which means that it's not like he was lacking form/strength, and suggests that his latter year could be a realistic expectation, which would mean he's a bad pick. But he's fast and there are lots of races in Belgium. That's really what it comes down to for me.
Okay sorry guys, I'm too wordy for my own good. I'll cut it off there and tackle the second half another time.
John Degenkolb (550/116)
Elia Viviani (275/103)
Obviously. I find there are themes every year for picking players, and 'slam dunk rider with awful year due to injury/misfortune' is a clear one, but a more cyclical one that doesn't come up every year is 'track guy who is focusing on road now that Olympics are done' (or, conversely, 'TT guy that I'm picking because he has the Olympics AND Worlds to score big points' last year).
Adriano Malori (2/93) - I was surprised to see that he's the third most popular rider. I came very close to not having him on my team, and really, I don't think I should have him on my team. It is a miracle that he's able to walk and ride a bike at all, let alone that he could come back before the end of the season last year. To think he will be anything more than pack fodder this year is definitely wishful thinking. From a game standpoint, yeah I could see the 'if he costs two points do you want to risk not having him if he gets 600 points' angle of it. But he's not going to get 600 points. I'd be surprised if he even gets 200. But... like I said, it's a miracle he's made it this far. I'm rooting for him. I want to believe in his story. So I've kind of overcome game logic to pick someone I want to see succeed. We will see, I hope he at least finishes some races in the first half of the season.
Fabio Aru (777/92)
Benat Intxausti (79/87)
Mikel Landa (479/82)
These are all obvious picks in different ways. Aru, simply by the fact that he's going for 2 GTs (and the two ones in which it's easier for him to podium) is an obvious pick. Intxausti is cheap and regardless of where he's at in training and recovery, I think he has the potential to top 15 a GT if he's helping his leader. And Landa feels like the real deal, not some kind of Igor Anton 1-year form-of-his-life thing. Landa was a clear talent early on, and when he podiumed the Giro it felt more like 'finally' than 'wtf'.
Leopold Konig (264/81) - boring, grind-it-out type pick that you have to make. I mean, even if he was still with Sky he'd be a good pick, if not for that one crazy day in the Vuelta he'd have a couple hundred more points. But back on Bora? Hells yeah, less than 5-600 would be a surprise.
Rob Power (77/80) - Come on, he was sick all year, had 13 race days, and podiums Japan Cup? He is going to rip it up. Possibly the easiest pick on the team.
Alexis Gougeard (107/74) - I feel ambivalent about this pick. I think that, as I believe Squire said way back in the thread, rouleurs like him have somewhat of an upper limit on their points total, and he hit his in 2015. Nothing in particular went wrong for him last year. But if he has a run of form, he could be good. Unfortunately, as I was looking over riders again and again and again, what made me put him in on the 5th or 6th pass was that AG2R released their early season schedule and he was down for Qatar. "That's the perfect race for him, and it'll offer more points this year", I said to myself, and put him in the lineup. Then Qatar was cancelled, but by that point I had my whole team locked in and there was no one right in his range that I thought was clearly a better choice and I didn't have time to bother switching around several riders... so here we are. I think he'll do just fine, but with the .1 and .HC races disappearing left and right on the French calendar, I'm not so sure how many chances he'll get to pick up points here and there.
Owain Doull (7/73) - I'm definitely averse to picking neo-pros with Sky, but a) he costs 7 points, b) he's shifting focus from track, and c) his podium in Britain in 2015 showed he's got road pedigree. No-doubter for me.
Julian Arredondo (17/72) - I was all set to pick him last year for 217 points or whatever he cost, but then I read the interview where he talked about his leg problems, and the general tone was 'I hope we can fix it this year, and if not I'll have to maybe think about leaving cycling'. He sounded like he had one foot out the door, and if things went bad, I thought he might pack it in. He had a terrible season. And yet, here he is, he's switched teams and he's still going for it, and although I haven't read anything comprehensive on it, there seems to be a belief that his issues are resolved. So, I've gotta believe he thinks he can do it, and it can't get worse, and there will be plenty of the races that got him over 600 points a few years ago. For 17 points? Yes please.
Michal Kwiatkowski (611/62) - I am surprised he is this far down on the popularity list. Yes, Sky uses strong riders as workhorses in the GTs and that takes away from their points potential (coughBoassonHagencough), but Kwiat's so versatile! (plus he's won big stuff, unlike EBH) Even in a 'crappy' year like last year, he pulled out the win in E3, didn't have good luck in the Ardennes where he could usually romp, and had a combination of bad form and bad luck the rest of the year in only 56 race days. There's nothing in that year that makes me think his choice of team, or anything systemic at all, will inhibit his points potential in a substantial way. A fantastic TTer, good fast finisher, guy who can get up mountains when he needs to... he can score in almost any given race. Sure he hasn't hit that sustained vein of form for a couple of years, but to me that just suggests that he's due, not that he's lost it.
Matvey Mamykin (199/49) - ooh, my first pick who didn't miss substantial time or have bad luck last year! Sometimes talent is undeniable, and you can see a rider just needs a bit more experience to be able to make attacks stick and score big. Such is the case with Mamykin, who repeatedly impressed at in the latter part of the season. Of course, sometimes a rider just gets some form for a bit and you see a glimmer and mistake it as lasting talent. I've almost made that mistake before with someone like Egor Silin, who looked strong in some breaks in the Tour one year but hasn't really done anything since (although I didn't pick him anyway). But Mamykin also has some strong GC results in his first year, so I'm reassured that he's actually the real deal.
Guillaume Van Keirsbulck (61/48) - speaking of seeing glimmers of talent. This guy looked like the next Boonen at age 20, and.... has sort of been okay since then. I think this is my third time picking him in this game, and I didn't hesitate. A guy who shows strength on the cobbles, is great in the TT, and is moving to a PCT that is gonna make him leader? Sounds like potential winning recipe. I mean, QuickStep usually don't get it wrong with rider development, so I'm wary that there's something in him that's just not ever gonna be a winner. But at 61 points, he should have a million chances this year and he has the power to do a late attack and stay away, or have a good TT and place highly in something like De Panne, and other lower-than-WT races. Could be a good year.
Stefan Kung (225/47) - is he a guy who's had bad luck for a couple of years or is he someone who can't stay healthy for a whole season? I'm betting the former. He's so strong, and his poise winning that Suisse stage as a neo-pro (Suisse, right? I'm going by memory here) was a notable harbinger of things to come, I thought. Anyway, young, does a great TT, has potential in the classics, I am happy to have him on my team.
Joe Dombrowski (158/46) - hope springs eternal. I thought after crushing it in Utah in 2015 he'd take it a step higher and have some impressive WT showings in 2016. But, nope, although 2 GTs completed is good for development, and he looked increasingly impressive in those Giro breaks so I'm sure he would've won a stage if it had gone 4 weeks. Yeah, he's now the most picked rider of all time, okay. But putting the pieces together, he had health problems for a couple of years and was buried at Sky, had a breakthrough year in 2015 where he won the hardest 1-weeker in America, had a different breakthrough where he did 2 GTs (he had only done 1 before) and looked strongest in the third week in both of them... those puzzle pieces have to come together sometime. Vaughters seems to have a personal investment in his training, so it's not hard to see him getting opportunities for himself. Or, maybe I'll be picking him next year for 12 points or something.
Kris Boeckmans (60/45) - I don't actually think his realistic ceiling is that high. 300? 200? But his dream fantasy ceiling is of course the 600 or so he had pre-crash. His best results were earlier last year, which means that it's not like he was lacking form/strength, and suggests that his latter year could be a realistic expectation, which would mean he's a bad pick. But he's fast and there are lots of races in Belgium. That's really what it comes down to for me.
Okay sorry guys, I'm too wordy for my own good. I'll cut it off there and tackle the second half another time.
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