The 2017 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

[skidmark]

Really enjoying reading through the discussion, hope you all don't mind when I join in later - I've used all my available time this week (I'm on a trip), but after I'm back home this weekend and put out the first update, I'll go into my thoughts on the season, even if I've missed the general boat in terms of most of the discussion taking place today.

Just quick notes for those checking out the spreadsheet - it's the sheet from last year that I've put this year's team's into, so absolutely nothing has been changed except the teams and popularity tab. I'll need to clean up the other tabs (weekly, update, green jersey) and erase the teams that aren't coming back. So don't worry if you don't show up on the weekly tab yet, it's just still last year's - just wanted to get the info out but didn't have time to do more.

And thanks vladimir/Hugo for doing the popularity rankings.

 

[skidmark]

Re: Re:

skidmark is one of the players that have Nibali. Looking at his team, he could have swapped Nibali and Bauhaus or Sepulveda for, say, Gaviria and Moscon or Gaviria and Benoot (or another rider in that price range). Or he could have swapped Nibali and Grosu for Gaviria and Ewan. Or he could have swapped Nibali for Benoot and Moscon and have 39 points left over to upgrade another rider. Lots of different options. I'm not saying it definitely would have been better to do so, but personally that's what I would have done. It will be interesting to see which approach turns out to be the better one though.

This comment is so great because it shows how much intuitive knowledge you get once you're a vet of this game. Guess who the last three additions to my team were? Yep, Bauhaus and Sepulveda (and Malori at the same time, I guess, which was more of a heart pick), and then Grosu. But I made the Nibali decision early - Gaviria's potential is tremendous, all the names you posted as well, and there are so many others in the range that you cited even other than young riders, like 'boring' picks (Tony Martin, Tejay Van Garderen, Pozzovivo) that it was hard to pick. So I just decided it was a good year for a roll of the dice and took Nibali, ignored those mid-rangers. My actual last pick choice in that range that I was trying to fit in a package instead of Bahaus/Sepulveda/Malori was Edward Theuns.

As for Nibali, he's a mercurial rider for sure, but he was at his most petulant an ineffective at Astana when they weren't believing in him. Bahrain is specifically built around him, it's his team. That counts for something. Plus, his last year by the numbers is that he had a few ok results, won a Giro with pretty much the minimum CQ points anyone would need to win a Giro, crashed out of the Olympics with 400 points on the line, sleepwalked through the Tour and then half-heartedly came back for Abu Dhabi. With any more consistency (or a programme that includes the Vuelta, which might be a stretch if he's the main event at Bahrain), he can trade 6th for 1st at a T-A that actually goes uphill, or podium Liege, or sweep the end-of-year Italian classics like in 2015. His talent could be declining or he could be due for a bounceback, but I've decided to go with him, make or break. If it's gonna be on the good side, it's nice to see only 6 teams have him.

 

[DFA123]

First time I've entered the game and I already think I may have made a few misguided selections. I do have most of the top ten picks, but quite a few unpopular riders as well, like the following:

Felline - 607 - Thought with a good season he could reach 1000 points without even winning a race, but he'll probably have to have another great GT to do so, like at the Vuelta last year.

Dani Moreno - 543 - Kind of regretting this already. I think he could get a few more points than last year, but he's clearly past his best. Depends how generous Valverde is with letting him ride his own races I guess.

TJVG - 574 - I dont like him and know he's the kind of rider who will always let you down, but I got seduced by his low points last year.

Frank - 297 - Another one who'll always let you down. Perhaps if he actually tries for the whole season instead of just the last two months this year he might improve a bit.

Gerrans - 571 - Just picked him because I thought no-one else would have him! There's a chance he could do a bit better than last year if he stays on the bike and with Matthews out of the way. Needs to start the year strongly.

Simon Clarke - 183 - Don't know what I was thinking here.

My team seems a lot older than most. Is that because it's more exciting to pick young up and coming riders, or just that they tend to be better investments?
Also, I realized I picked Lars Boom twice - so one Boom will need deleting from my team.

 

[Jancouver]

Really enjoying reading through the discussion, hope you all don't mind when I join in later - I've used all my available time this week (I'm on a trip), but after I'm back home this weekend and put out the first update, I'll go into my thoughts on the season, even if I've missed the general boat in terms of most of the discussion taking place today.

Just quick notes for those checking out the spreadsheet - it's the sheet from last year that I've put this year's team's into, so absolutely nothing has been changed except the teams and popularity tab. I'll need to clean up the other tabs (weekly, update, green jersey) and erase the teams that aren't coming back. So don't worry if you don't show up on the weekly tab yet, it's just still last year's - just wanted to get the info out but didn't have time to do more.

And thanks vladimir/Hugo for doing the popularity rankings.

Did not check every sheet, but I noticed mc_mountain is empty and has no riders.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Re: Re:

skidmark is one of the players that have Nibali. Looking at his team, he could have swapped Nibali and Bauhaus or Sepulveda for, say, Gaviria and Moscon or Gaviria and Benoot (or another rider in that price range). Or he could have swapped Nibali and Grosu for Gaviria and Ewan. Or he could have swapped Nibali for Benoot and Moscon and have 39 points left over to upgrade another rider. Lots of different options. I'm not saying it definitely would have been better to do so, but personally that's what I would have done. It will be interesting to see which approach turns out to be the better one though.

This comment is so great because it shows how much intuitive knowledge you get once you're a vet of this game. Guess who the last three additions to my team were? Yep, Bauhaus and Sepulveda (and Malori at the same time, I guess, which was more of a heart pick), and then Grosu. But I made the Nibali decision early - Gaviria's potential is tremendous, all the names you posted as well, and there are so many others in the range that you cited even other than young riders, like 'boring' picks (Tony Martin, Tejay Van Garderen, Pozzovivo) that it was hard to pick. So I just decided it was a good year for a roll of the dice and took Nibali, ignored those mid-rangers. My actual last pick choice in that range that I was trying to fit in a package instead of Bahaus/Sepulveda/Malori was Edward Theuns.

Just curious, but are you not concerned about Albanese's CQ points potential? If he's indeed "the new Sagan" then any team without him is pretty much ****ed. Seeing as he's on a PCT team with loads of scoring possibilities he doesn't even have to be as talented as Sagan to match the latter's breakthrough season (928 points, 2010)

I'm not saying that's likely, but seeing as ****ing Colbrelli did 1200+ last year while on the same team ... I don't know. Yeah, I'm kinda worried, haha.

 

[PeterB]

It seems this year it will be quite new experience for me, having overall one of the most popular selections, and with no unique rider. In the past this was usually considered a good sign, so let's see if that's still the case.

My team:
ARU Fabio 777 (I don't really think he is that great rider but I expected he would be popular so realised it would make sense to have him and he will likely get in profit, even if by little)
YATES Adam 689 (young and hopefully hungry for results in all races he enters)
MARTIN Tony 657 (I am not so sure about Tony. Had him last year and he just barely made it into profit. But he is one of the leaders at Katusha and I really do hope he will not have to slave for Kristoff)
YATES Simon 621 (same as with Adam, plus at least I do not have to check which Yates it is. I definitively decided for him after I discovered that it was him not Adam in the Vuelta, unlike what I thought previously...)
KWIATKOWSKI Michal 611 (huge potential, but will he deliver? WC course should suit him and I hope for some stage race success, too)
DEGENKOLB John 550 (he definitely thinks he will be good, so I rely on your word, John)
LANDA MEANA Mikel 479 (similar as with Aru - I took him because I knew he would be popular rather than that he would score big)
POZZOVIVO Domenico 472 (last minute addition. He seems to be motivated to do well... or at least better than last year because noone probably expects him to podium the Grand Tours)
VIVIANI Elia 275 (top sprinter at this price? No-brainer)
KÖNIG Leopold 264 (GC contender at this price? No-brainer)
PHINNEY Taylor 232 (I did not want to take him again after last year, but reading that he found new motivation in his new team, I decided to give him another chance. I am surprised he made it into only 23 teams - are you guys more hype-resistant than me?)
KÜNG Stefan 225 (I was impressed with him when he was healthy so no-brainer at this price)
BOOM Lars 212 (Do I remember correctly flashes from classics featuring lonely Astana jersey at the front? I trust he still has it and will do better in his new team)
MAMYKIN Matvey 199 (let's see what surprise this youngster has for us. I just hoped he would be a bit more unique...)
DILLIER Silvan 190 (Why did he make it only to 20 teams? For me he was no-brainer along with Kung)
DOMBROWSKI Joseph Lloyd 158 (is he really this cheap? Highest time to start scoring at the WT level)
VALLS FERRI Rafael 129 (And why did Valls make it only to 21 teams? He may be in profit already after TDU)
BRESCHEL Matti 116 (I hesitated quite a lot, but for this price, and now riding in the company of other Danes in Astana, I went for him)
GOUGEARD Alexis 107
CIMOLAI Davide 106
INTXAUSTI ELORRIAGA Beñat 79
PONZI Simone 78
TROFIMOV Yury 62
BOECKMANS Kris 60
PELUCCHI Matteo 45
DEVOLDER Stijn 30
ANDERSEN Asbjørn Kragh 28
ARREDONDO MORENO Julian David 17
DEIGNAN Philip 13
DOULL Owain 7
MALORI Adriano 2
CINK Ondrej 0
OLIVIER Daan 0
There were so many attractive riders in the cheaper category, including neo-pros. At the end I decided that I would not risk it with unproven neo-pros, if I could take some more established riders instead, except for Cink who is more of a fun/fan pick.

After seeing other teams I am glad I did not overlook anyone important. Popular guys I don't have like Gaviria, Spilak or Power were on my longlist but:

Gaviria - I agree that he is a rider easily capable of 2000 points. But then I realised he is in a team with Kittel, Boonen and Gilbert (to name a few), which means that not always it will be his race to shine. Given he is relatively expensive already, it is quite risky pick. If his cost was 500-600, he would be in my team.

Spilak - last change I made was replacing him with Pozzovivo (+ Bouet with Deignan). This guy is such a mystery - there is so little you can find about him on internet, he virtually disappears once spring is over, all the while he is one of the best in spring one-week races. Maybe he will score more points, but eventually I preferred Pozzovivo who will complete also in Grand Tours, which Spilak does not seem to do. Plus Katusha announced their three leaders and he was not among them, so it is not that he will now take the place of Purito.

Power - he would be on my team had he not scored in Japan. With those points the potential is limited and there are now many better climbers at Orica above him. If I decide between him and Ponzi, Ponzi seems safer to me with higher potential.

 

[Brullnux]

GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando 833
ARU Fabio 777
MOSCON Gianni 622
KWIATKOWSKI Michal 611
DEGENKOLB John 550

My most important riders. Gaviria could score 1500+ points this year if his spring classics campaign goes well, and I hope he will do a GT this year too where he can score many points. Aru is obvious, so is Degenkolb. The other two riders are sort of the opposite, in a way. Moscon had a great first year at Sky and seems to have settled immediately, and I expect (and hope) for him to build on that season and already break the 1000 mark. It was a toss up between him and Benoot, but Moscon is more versatile and I am not yet completely sold on Benoot. Kwiat on the other hand had an awful year, by his standards, and seems to have lost his mojo over the last two seasons. I trust him to refind it, and whatever happens this year can't be worse than 2016. This is also the reason I didn't pick Landa, because I think it will take him more than a year to adjust. That, and I am not 100% sure if he is the real deal. For now, he is still a one-hit wonder.

SPILAK Simon 301
VIVIANI Elia 275
KÖNIG Leopold 264
KÜNG Stefan 225
TEUNS Dylan 150
ZOIDL Riccardo 128
INTXAUSTI ELORRIAGA Beñat 79
ZARDINI Edoardo 48

These guys for me are all talented (some more than others) riders who just had bad years last year, and will do better this . They are all quite cheap too, so if one misfires then the other guys will cover him.

THEUNS Edward 405

Sort of like the above riders, but much riskier. He had that amazing 1000+ season, but fell down to 400 last year. He is still at Trek and in the WT, but hopefully he'll have adjusted. If he is given freedom on the Belgian tour then he could be great. Likely to be Degenkolb's domestique in major races, not that he's feature in them admittedly.

FEDI Andrea 288
ROSON GARCIA Jaime 178
DOMBROWSKI Joseph Lloyd 158

I had all these guys last year. Fedi impressed me very much in the early season Italian races, but then did very little after his injury. This year I expect him to find his consistency and achieve a 500+ year, even if he doesn't produce as many great performances, unless misfortune strikes. Dombrowski otoh was a disappointment, but because of that I have put him back in. Roson had a breakout year and I expect him to continue, especially now that Carthy has moved from Caja Rural. Fedi is wondefully rare for such a talented rider, too.

WALLAYS Jelle 224

My one unique pick. Has some great moments at times. Can win continental belgian races and has done repeatedly in the past, and is now approaching his peak. A 300 year is possible and I'd be pleased with it.

ALBANESE Vincenzo 159
BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley 159
DE PLUS Laurens 94
MARTINEZ POVEDA Daniel Felipe 87
DUNBAR Eddie 69
DOULL Owain 7

All young and extremely talented. If these guys do well then so will I.

KUMP Marko 154

Depends on which races he does. If he does continental level European races, then he will do very well. If he does WT races, then he will not.

BOHLI Tom 120
SPRENGERS Thomas 108
VALLEE Boris 83
STENUIT Robin 76
RUBIANO CHAVEZ Miguel Angel 71

Cheap, rare picks that have, if only a small, chance of doubling their scores. Can also flop brilliantly.

GOUGEARD Alexis 107
TROFIMOV Yury 62
MALORI Adriano 2

Other obvious picks that should do well.

 

[skidmark]

Really enjoying reading through the discussion, hope you all don't mind when I join in later - I've used all my available time this week (I'm on a trip), but after I'm back home this weekend and put out the first update, I'll go into my thoughts on the season, even if I've missed the general boat in terms of most of the discussion taking place today.

Just quick notes for those checking out the spreadsheet - it's the sheet from last year that I've put this year's team's into, so absolutely nothing has been changed except the teams and popularity tab. I'll need to clean up the other tabs (weekly, update, green jersey) and erase the teams that aren't coming back. So don't worry if you don't show up on the weekly tab yet, it's just still last year's - just wanted to get the info out but didn't have time to do more.

And thanks vladimir/Hugo for doing the popularity rankings.

Did not check every sheet, but I noticed mc_mountain is empty and has no riders.

Yeah, I deleted all the lines on the rankings sheet for teams that weren't participating this year, but didn't have time to delete the actual tabs. So any team that participated last year but didn't send a team this year would have a tab with their name that is blank and has no riders; if you go through tab by tab rather than going through the hyperlinks on the rankings tab, you'll run across those. I'll clean that up by the first update.

I also was alerted to the fact that I must have neglected to make a line for, or accidentally erased the line for Velorooms user merengues, which explains part of my discrepancy in numbers. Again, I'll thoroughly go through the sheet before the first update and clean everything up, but until then, everyone let me know if you don't see your team.

 

[skidmark]

Re: Re:

skidmark is one of the players that have Nibali. Looking at his team, he could have swapped Nibali and Bauhaus or Sepulveda for, say, Gaviria and Moscon or Gaviria and Benoot (or another rider in that price range). Or he could have swapped Nibali and Grosu for Gaviria and Ewan. Or he could have swapped Nibali for Benoot and Moscon and have 39 points left over to upgrade another rider. Lots of different options. I'm not saying it definitely would have been better to do so, but personally that's what I would have done. It will be interesting to see which approach turns out to be the better one though.

This comment is so great because it shows how much intuitive knowledge you get once you're a vet of this game. Guess who the last three additions to my team were? Yep, Bauhaus and Sepulveda (and Malori at the same time, I guess, which was more of a heart pick), and then Grosu. But I made the Nibali decision early - Gaviria's potential is tremendous, all the names you posted as well, and there are so many others in the range that you cited even other than young riders, like 'boring' picks (Tony Martin, Tejay Van Garderen, Pozzovivo) that it was hard to pick. So I just decided it was a good year for a roll of the dice and took Nibali, ignored those mid-rangers. My actual last pick choice in that range that I was trying to fit in a package instead of Bahaus/Sepulveda/Malori was Edward Theuns.

Just curious, but are you not concerned about Albanese's CQ points potential? If he's indeed "the new Sagan" then any team without him is pretty much ****ed. Seeing as he's on a PCT team with loads of scoring possibilities he doesn't even have to be as talented as Sagan to match the latter's breakthrough season (928 points, 2010)

I'm not saying that's likely, but seeing as ****ing Colbrelli did 1200+ last year while on the same team ... I don't know. Yeah, I'm kinda worried, haha.

Yeah, Albanese was on my team before I talked myself out of it by looking at Enrico Barbin's last year as an U23, whose results pattern was very similar to Albanese; I convinced myself to pick Barbin because I thought he'd blow up, and then he didn't do much at all. That's probably silly reasoning, there are a bunch of other guys who have done well at U23 and have immediately done well at PCT the next year; I could have straight up put in Albanese instead of Grosu as a last pick and been done with it. But honestly, at the end of choosing my team I had thought of it so much I was just kind of 'whatever'. I'm sure Albanese's ceiling is much higher than Grosu and I'll be kicking myself if I lose out on 600 points because of it. But what're you gonna do.

 

[Squire]

Re: Re:

skidmark is one of the players that have Nibali. Looking at his team, he could have swapped Nibali and Bauhaus or Sepulveda for, say, Gaviria and Moscon or Gaviria and Benoot (or another rider in that price range). Or he could have swapped Nibali and Grosu for Gaviria and Ewan. Or he could have swapped Nibali for Benoot and Moscon and have 39 points left over to upgrade another rider. Lots of different options. I'm not saying it definitely would have been better to do so, but personally that's what I would have done. It will be interesting to see which approach turns out to be the better one though.

This comment is so great because it shows how much intuitive knowledge you get once you're a vet of this game. Guess who the last three additions to my team were? Yep, Bauhaus and Sepulveda (and Malori at the same time, I guess, which was more of a heart pick), and then Grosu. But I made the Nibali decision early - Gaviria's potential is tremendous, all the names you posted as well, and there are so many others in the range that you cited even other than young riders, like 'boring' picks (Tony Martin, Tejay Van Garderen, Pozzovivo) that it was hard to pick. So I just decided it was a good year for a roll of the dice and took Nibali, ignored those mid-rangers. My actual last pick choice in that range that I was trying to fit in a package instead of Bahaus/Sepulveda/Malori was Edward Theuns.

Just curious, but are you not concerned about Albanese's CQ points potential? If he's indeed "the new Sagan" then any team without him is pretty much ****ed. Seeing as he's on a PCT team with loads of scoring possibilities he doesn't even have to be as talented as Sagan to match the latter's breakthrough season (928 points, 2010)

I'm not saying that's likely, but seeing as ****ing Colbrelli did 1200+ last year while on the same team ... I don't know. Yeah, I'm kinda worried, haha.

Yeah, Albanese was on my team before I talked myself out of it by looking at Enrico Barbin's last year as an U23, whose results pattern was very similar to Albanese; I convinced myself to pick Barbin because I thought he'd blow up, and then he didn't do much at all. That's probably silly reasoning, there are a bunch of other guys who have done well at U23 and have immediately done well at PCT the next year; I could have straight up put in Albanese instead of Grosu as a last pick and been done with it. But honestly, at the end of choosing my team I had thought of it so much I was just kind of 'whatever'. I'm sure Albanese's ceiling is much higher than Grosu and I'll be kicking myself if I lose out on 600 points because of it. But what're you gonna do.

I thought long and hard about it myself, and tried to come up with all sorts of reasons not to pick him, but in the end I just couldn't leave him out. So I'm not gonna pretend like Albanese is the ultimate must-have pick, BUT...

Barbin's great U23 year was when he was 22. When Barbin was the same age as Albanese is now, he had scored exactly 0 CQ points. I didn't watch Barbin race as an U23 so I can't really compare, but part of what impresses me about Albanese is not just his results, but the manner in which they are achieved. I mean, look at this!

Another encouraging sign is that when Bardiani revealed their new jersey, guess who they picked as the guy to model it? Not a former Giro KoM & stage winner and fan favourite, not any of the other former Giro stage winners they have, but their just-turned-20-year-old neo-pro.

 

[escartin]

here be my team:

ARU Fabio 777
LOPEZ MORENO Miguel Angel 763
LATOUR Pierre 645
ROSA Diego 600
BENOOT Tiesj 588
DEGENKOLB John 550
LANDA MEANA Mikel 479
KÖNIG Leopold 264
WACKERMANN Luca 262
DE LA PARTE GONZALEZ Victor 234
KUDUS Merhawi Gebremedhin 234
MAMYKIN Matvey 199
TEKLEHAIMANOT Daniel Girmazion 174
TRATNIK Jan 168
BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley 159
POLANC Jan 159
DOMBROWSKI Joseph Lloyd 158
SOLER GIMENEZ Marc 155
MACHADO Tiago Jose Pinto 140
TUREK Daniel 127
BETANCUR GOMEZ Carlos Alberto 108
MAS NICOLAU Enric 92
INTXAUSTI ELORRIAGA Beñat 79
POWER Robert 77
RUBIANO CHAVEZ Miguel Angel 71
TROFIMOV Yury 62
LEDANOIS Kevin 49
MRAOUNI Salah Eddine 48
ARANBURU DEBA Alex 33
DEVOLDER Stijn 30
RODRIGUEZ SALAZAR Jhon Anderson 11
CARAPAZ MONTENEGRO Richard Antonio 5
LAAS Martin 0

many more popular picks than last year's first attempt at this. the ones I seem to be missing are Viviani, Malori (these were evidently the must have Italians I asked about! :lol: ), Arredondo (who I had last year and totally forgot about this time ), Doull, Kwiatkowski (who I briefly considered) and Gougeard.

the picks that are a bit left field and that I am already worried about and should probably have replaced with some other combination are Latour, de la Parte and Wackermann. The latter 2 are among my 5 unique picks with Tratnik (who I had last year), Turek and Aranburu. I am now also slightly concerned about Rosa (who I also had last year) given how few people have picked him.

although I have quite a few riders that I had last year - Rosa, Kudus, Teklehaimanot, Tratnik, Polanc, Dombrowski and Betancur - there are several that I did not pick that are quite popular like Teuns, Arredondo, Yates(x2), Barguil. I could not afford both Yates and would not want to choose just one, forgot about Arredondo, preferred Latour to Barguil (let's see how that goes) and did not consider (but perhaps should have) Teuns.

 

[R_O_Shipman]

Unique picks:
BOEM Nicola - it just takes one giro stage to smash this. He has the ability, but not sure he can pull it off.
MARKUS Barry - once upon a time he looked like a sprinting talent, he could well double
ZHAO Jingbiao - I had 34 points left, this guy was 33 and has a cool name. Plus he's 19, so could be on an upward trend?

Only one other person picked them:
BATTAGLIN Enrico - if he just pulled of the season I believe he could.
CLARKE Simon - has had some great results in the past, could come good again
STANNARD Ian - cancellara has gone, boonen is aching, everyone is looking at Sagan. Why not yogi?

Other rare picks:
LAWLESS Christopher
LUTSENKO Alexey
TSATEVICH Alexei
FOLIFOROV Alexander
MEZGEC Luka
CAPECCHI Eros
HOFLAND Moreno
DIBBEN Jonathan
DUNBAR Eddie
HERKLOTZ Silvio

All under 20 picks.

Most of my picking is on heart and feel, so it's probably why I'm always bottom half, but it gives me a set of guys to cheer for throughout the year. And good to see 23 others just couldn't give up on the fat colombian

 

[SafeBet]

GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando 833 - 22 years old off an 800+ point season in 42 racing days. I'm buying.

ARU Fabio 777 - back to his Giro/Vuelta schedule that made him shine in 2014/15. No Nibali around meeans less pressure as well. Rebound season.

KWIATKOWSKI Michal 611 - my biggest gamble. Hard to find opportunities considering how stacked his team is. But I didn't really love any rider around 600 points and I wanted somebody in that price range.

BENOOT Tiesj 588 - not the brightest sophomore year but his natural progression points to a 1000 point season.

DEGENKOLB John 550 - not sure he's fully recovered but at that price you gotta pick him.

STUYVEN Jasper 428 - thought he would be a popular pick for some reason. No Cancellara means more chances to ride for himself and he's a good handcuff in case Dege can't get back to his usual self.

BONIFAZIO Niccolo 347 - had to share the loan with other sprinters thus far in his career. Not this year. Breakout season.

SPILAK Simon 301 - possibly declining but I gave him the benefit of the doubt. 600 points reachable in a standard season for him.

NAVARDAUSKAS Ramunas 282 - annother Bahrain rider who might get more opportunities in 2017.

ROLLAND Pierre 281 - I got a soft spot for this guy and he should be back to his attacking style after a disappointing season.

VIVIANI Elia 275 - coming off the Olympic year at a bargain price. Easy pick.

KÖNIG Leopold 264 - not the most exciting rider but back to a smallish team and will ride a GT as a captain.

KÜNG Stefan 225 - huge engine, incredible panache. This guy is the real deal.

BOOM Lars 212 - team change should do him good.

ANDERSEN Søren Kragh 201 - fast guy with a knack for hard races. Had to adjust to WT racing in 2016, can improve now.

MAMYKIN Matvey 199 - flashes of greatness as a neo pro, I'm confident he'll take it to the next level.

BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley 159 - extremely young, but even at a (relatively) high price I had to buy. Too much talent.

DOMBROWSKI Joseph Lloyd 158 - don't ask me why I picked him.

MACHADO Tiago Jose Pinto 140 - tribute to IznoGoud or however that guy was called.

BRESCHEL Matti 116 - Astana can revive his career.

MARTINEZ POVEDA Daniel Felipe 87 - I didn't want both him and Bernal but I was one rider short of 33 with 7413 points used. Had to take him to get to a perfect 7500.

INTXAUSTI ELORRIAGA Beñat 79 - too cheap to pass.

PONZI Simone 78 - dull first season with CCC (couple of crashes too), but has multiple consecutive 400+ point seasons.

POWER Robert 77 - chasing potential here, and I like his story.

VAN KEIRSBULCK Guillaume 61 - in the perfect environment to blossom. Still only 25.

PELUCCHI Matteo 45 - the kind of sprinter I hate, but can top 200 points if stars align.

GANNA Filippo 40 - an absolute beast. Will have opportunities to ride for himself from day 1.

DEVOLDER Stijn 30 - old but gold?

JANSE VAN RENSBURG Jacques 29 - thought I was getting the better brother. Or not.

ARCHBOLD Shane 19 - my rare pick. Admittedly I don't know who this guy is

VORGANOV Eduard 6 - very cheap. Could collect points with an easier schedule.

MALORI Adriano 2 - easiest pick of the game.

OLIVIER Daan 0 - been following this kid for years now. Happy he's back in the peloton.

 

[Squire]

Re:

ZHAO Jingbiao - I had 34 points left, this guy was 33 and has a cool name. Plus he's 19, so could be on an upward trend?

This kid's a talent! But I can't believe someone else picked him! He was in my team which I submitted to skidmark, and I was absolutely certain he'd be a unique pick. But then the news about Vorganov getting a contract came out, so I had to make space, and unfortunately Zhao had to be sacrificed. Zhao won the senior national championship as a 19-year-old, and last season he showed good consistency in the sprints, and even won a 2.1 stage in Fuzhou. With more flat Chinese races being added in 2017, and with increased confidence and experience, he should be a decent pick. Other good things are team captain Wang Meiyin having left the team (I think Wang will struggle majorly in the WT) making Zhao the star, and that the old Lampre team have less incentive to go to China now, so the Chinese races could be more open.

Will be rooting for your team just because of this pick!

MARKUS Barry - once upon a time he looked like a sprinting talent, he could well double

This guy leaving Roompot was the reason I almost picked André Looij. I'm going just by the results sheet here, so I'm not 100% certain, but for every bad sprint Looij did last season, Markus was a few places behind. Made me think he must be the worst lead-out man ever!

BATTAGLIN Enrico - if he just pulled of the season I believe he could.

That Battaglin has never scored big points is a complete mystery. His Giro stage wins indicate so much ability. Maybe his tactics are totally missing? I've been hoping for years that he would blossom, but I've kind of given up hope. At least I didn't dare include him in my team.

 

[PeterB]

Re:

ARCHBOLD Shane 19 - my rare pick. Admittedly I don't know who this guy is

That's simple, he's the Flying Mullet!

 

[Gigs_98]

I just saw that I have 10 riders which were picked less than 10 times and I'm actually surprised by that in a few cases.

BARTA Jan:
My only unique pick. I'm not surprised that he is a relatively rare pick but I didn't think I would be the only one who has him. I know he is already old but last season he only made half as many points as the year before and generally he had around 2 times more points than last year for 4 seasons in a row. I'm not expecting him to have his best season ever this year but I think an improvement is absolutely possible.

Only picked twice:
GESCHKE Simon: Like Barta he is already relatively old but I still think he can do better than last year.

IMPEY Daryl: Same as the two above.

Only picked three times:
RUBIANO CHAVEZ Miguel Angel: Okay, I must admit, I don't know if he is a complete waste of points or a great rare pick. The last time he had as few points as last year was in 2006, the last time he didn't have twice as many points as last year was in 2007 and in most years he had more than 3 times more points than last year. Ofc you could argue that he is already old and therefore declining, which is why he only made 71 points last year, but that is before you see that he only had a contract for two months, so all these 71 points were scored in a very small time period. Said differently he could be a very interesting pick (or complete rubbish but at least he wasn't too expensive)

DENIFL Stefan: This is one of the riders I expected to be way more popular. He is in a team in which he will probably always have a free role, he has shown great climbing in the last year but was often unfortunate and he had a pretty bad season last year. He won't be a crucial pick but I'm confident that he at least won't be a bad pick.

Riders picked between 5 and 10 times:
FELLINE Fabio: He was injured for a few months, but was pretty strong for the rest of the season although with a bit more luck even that rest could have been even better. Wouldn't be surprised if he would have more than 1000 points this year. Ofc there are probably expensive picks which would have been better than him but I still think he is a decent pick.

SINKELDAM Ramon: I'm surprised he is such a rare pick. He is still pretty young and dropped from 396 to 142 points last year. And his bad last season wasn't only caused by bad shape, no, he was also part of the big Team Giant car crash last year, which also screwed up Degenkolb's season. Is there maybe some bad news about him, which I missed, because I really don't understand why he wasn't picked by more people.

ZOIDL Riccardo: Has become worse since he joined a WT team, but now he is back in his CONTI team with which he scored 455 points in 2013, so I think he could be pretty good again this year.

MÜHLBERGER Gregor: He is a great talent with a mediocre last season. He should be a decent pick.

DEIGNAN Philip: Why have only 5 people picked a sky rider with only 13 points last year? He basically only needs to participate in two or three TTT's and will have 13 points again. I don't expect him to score much more than 100 points, (although thats possible) but he would already be a great pick with only 50 points which I think is more likely than not.

 

[MADRAZO]

Re: Re:

[quote

Barbin's great U23 year was when he was 22. When Barbin was the same age as Albanese is now, he had scored exactly 0 CQ points. I didn't watch Barbin race as an U23 so I can't really compare, but part of what impresses me about Albanese is not just his results, but the manner in which they are achieved. I mean, look at this!

[/quote]

This is spot on. Many talents like Barbin gets overrated a lot after dominating U23-races when they are 22 years old. But real talents should indeed do so when they are much younger and many of the 22 year old U23 topriders fails when they go pro as they just do not develop much more after that. Other quick examples could be Marco Marzano, Antonio Quadranti, Luigi Sestili, Dominik Klemme or Diego Gallego and I think there are many more. So despite the similar results in their last u23-season Barbin and Albanese can not be compared and Albanese has much better chance to succeed.

 

[SafeBet]

Re: Re:

That Battaglin has never scored big points is a complete mystery. His Giro stage wins indicate so much ability. Maybe his tactics are totally missing? I've been hoping for years that he would blossom, but I've kind of given up hope. At least I didn't dare include him in my team.

I don't think he copes very well with pressure. Being very consistent as a dom for Kruijswijk in last year Giro speaks to that. He has probably found his role there.

 

[MADRAZO]

"R_O_Shipman wrote:
BATTAGLIN Enrico - if he just pulled of the season I believe he could.

That Battaglin has never scored big points is a complete mystery. His Giro stage wins indicate so much ability. Maybe his tactics are totally missing? I've been hoping for years that he would blossom, but I've kind of given up hope. At least I didn't dare include him in my team."

Battaglin is indeed a frustrating mystery. In theory he should be almost as good as the similar Felline and have the ability to score many points and also keeps showing small glimpses of this class, but it never lasts long and the dissapointments are numerous. He was very close to get a last chance in this game for me last season but this year I had also given up on him and wrote him of quickly despite the tempting price. But I would still not be too surpriced if he should indeed finally have a great season.

 

[MADRAZO]

"SINKELDAM Ramon: I'm surprised he is such a rare pick. He is still pretty young and dropped from 396 to 142 points last year. And his bad last season wasn't only caused by bad shape, no, he was also part of the big Team Giant car crash last year, which also screwed up Degenkolb's season. Is there maybe some bad news about him, which I missed, because I really don't understand why he wasn't picked by more people."

I think the main reason people are not picking Sinkeldam is that he seems to has lost all claim for any leading sprinterrole on the team. Before last season he was almost tied with Arndt I think in the hierachi, and now I think its clear both Arndt, Walscheid and Bauhaus besides Matthews will sprint before him, so that he is stuck leading out, so that he mainly only has the cobleclassics left to score where he will struggle to improve enough despite a clear talent there.

 

[rote_laterne]

Re:

CHEUNG King Lok
Greenedge are generally good at getting value from new signing

Last thing I read he's gonna concentrate on the track.

I just saw that I have 10 riders which were picked less than 10 times and I'm actually surprised by that in a few cases.

DENIFL Stefan: This is one of the riders I expected to be way more popular. He is in a team in which he will probably always have a free role, he has shown great climbing in the last year but was often unfortunate and he had a pretty bad season last year. He won't be a crucial pick but I'm confident that he at least won't be a bad pick.

Riders picked between 5 and 10 times:

ZOIDL Riccardo: Has become worse since he joined a WT team, but now he is back in his CONTI team with which he scored 455 points in 2013, so I think he could be pretty good again this year.

MÜHLBERGER Gregor: He is a great talent with a mediocre last season. He should be a decent pick.

DEIGNAN Philip: Why have only 5 people picked a sky rider with only 13 points last year? He basically only needs to participate in two or three TTT's and will have 13 points again. I don't expect him to score much more than 100 points, (although thats possible) but he would already be a great pick with only 50 points which I think is more likely than not.

Denifl should have easily doubled his 2015 score last year and didn't. Zoidl I'm not sure about his motivation. He reached WT, he wasn't spectacular in Croatia last year. Mühlberger I have more hopes, I'm just not too sure he'll get his chances with german talents and new stars in the team. That said, I wish all these riders a successfull season.

Deignan is not a good pick IMO as his ceiling is not very high. For 13 points I don't want a save return, I want big or nothing. But then who am I to judge, you did far better in your first game than me last year.

 

[EvansIsTheBest]

Re:

BOUDAT Thomas 10 - Late addition to my team. Don't know if he will skip track racing this year, but should anyway get lots of good results on the flatter French races.

I remember he said he was done with track after Rio, he was really bummed to not finish with a medal. With the focus on the road and an additional year of seasoning, I expect him to take a jump forward on the french domestic scene (especially with Coquard off doing his thing in the bigger races). I'm really surprised he wasn't picked more often considering how similar his background is compared Coquard who was a huge success in his post-London year. He's not quite the same level of prospect but he doesn't need to be to net a nice return.

Gaviria - I agree that he is a rider easily capable of 2000 points. But then I realised he is in a team with Kittel, Boonen and Gilbert (to name a few), which means that not always it will be his race to shine. Given he is relatively expensive already, it is quite risky pick. If his cost was 500-600, he would be in my team.

I didn't pick Moscon last year because even though he looked like a big talent there were a lot of more established riders in front of him (I promised myself not to make the mistake of leaving out a potential star because he might get lost in the shuffle again). Having a bunch of good climbers at Movistar didn't prevent Quintana from making his mark. immediately. At the end of the day, talent shines through and if the guy is good enough, like Gaviria so obviously is, he'll make his own opportunities. Besides, I'm not really seeing a threat to his leadership on his team.
Unfortunately, Gilbert looks like he's winding down, Kittel and Gaviria have yet to race together (clearly Quick Step managment doesn't believe that doubling down with both riders in the same race is a smart way to use their best assets) and I'm not taking Boonen, my favorite current rider, over Gaviria in any race at this particular time in their careers except PR and maybe RVV which are probably a year or two too soon for Gaviria anyway. Actually, I believe Alaphilippe could be his biggest threat internally especially on hilly races which are going to stretch Gaviria's climbing abilities.

Rarest riders:
LATOUR Pierre (6x) 645
2016 was a year of ups and downs for him, but at the end of La Vuelta he showed me his true face. With remarkable recovery and panache, on top of an excellent engine, he has all it takes to become a top GC rider. Similar to Bardet 3 years back, he has a high score and seems to have plenty of competition within his own team. However, with Pozzovivo getting older and Péraud retiring, a score above 1000 is not out of the question.

I like the Bardet comparaison. Both hard-working guys who get incrementally better every year. Having a GT under his belt is going to do him a ton of good I feel (and I really liked how he reacted to having a tough final week). As he's a rider I had last year, I followed him more closely than most probably and I feel it's important to point out he lead the Tour de Suisse before having to withdraw with bronchitis. Honestly, he should already have a bunch more points on the board and it seems like he's starting to turn into a decent classic rider which never hurts. As you say he's probably AG2R n°2 option and I projected him around 1000-1200 points when doing my team. I get that there are a number of other good options in that price range that might have driven down his popularity but six picks still seems a bit low.

 

[Tigerion]

Well on the board early with a 4th and 5th in the aussie nats ITT

 

[Jancouver]

First points awarded

2017 CA Road Nationals Elite Men's Time Trial

Date: Thursday, January 5 2017
Buninyong - Buninyong
Distance: 40.9 km
Chief Commissaire: Greg Griffiths
Organiser: GTR Events
Download as: [PDF] [Spreadsheet] [Blog Text] [JSON]

Result
1. 26 Rohan DENNIS (BMC) 50:59.27
2. 33 Luke DURBRIDGE (ORS) 51:57.52 +58.2
3. 34 Ben DYBALL 52:37.99 +1:38.7
4. 53 Michael HEPBURN (ORS) 53:04.09 +2:04.8
5. 111 Miles SCOTSON (BMC) 53:28.59 +2:29.3
6. 14 Brendan CANTY (CDT) 55:00.76 +4:01.4
7. 75 Sean LAKE (ISW) 55:06.09 +4:06.8
8. 138 Cameron WURF (CDT) 55:13.24 +4:13.9
9. 92 Lachlan NORRIS (UHC) 55:33.66 +4:34.3
10. 68 Jacob KAUFFMANN (SNS) 55:37.42 +4:38.1
11. 88 Peter MILOSTIC 56:12.78 +5:13.5
12. 142 James OGILVIE 58:00.32 +7:01.0
13. 23 Marcus CULEY 58:34.30 +7:35.0
14. 10 Samuel BURSTON (MBS) 58:39.23 +7:39.9
15. 20 Jesse COYLE (MBS) 59:57.37 +8:58.0
16. 107 Patrick SACCANI-WILLIAMS (GDT) 1h00:02.97 +9:03.7
17. 108 Paul SALISBURY 1h01:25.33 +10:26.0
18. 18 Brendan J COLE 1h02:10.33 +11:11.0
19. 137 Nathan WOOD 1h02:27.67 +11:28.4
20. 122 Brodie TALBOT 1h02:30.88 +11:31.6
21. 47 Lachlan GLASSPOOL (ORF) 1h02:33.48 +11:34.2
22. 129 Andrew WAI 1h13:40.09 +22:40.8

 

[Vesica]

Okay, here's the full (barring any mistakes) spreadsheet. I haven't erased the tabs for old teams yet, and for some reason only 129 teams are listed on the rankings page, even though I counted 131 during entry process and copied 130 to the popularity page. Something must've gotten miscounted, so let me know if you're not there!

I have had trouble making the pivot table for rider popularity - I did it last year, figuring it out as I went, but am having trouble replicating it. If someone is interested in doing that and sharing that file back to me on this thread, that'd be great as I'm done for the evening. Cheers!

Thanks!

Looks like my only unique pick is Valverde. Someone else picked Beltran, too. Not a great pick, but I'd expected more fanboys to come through. Then it's Egoitz Garcia (3 picks) who I also expected to be a bit more popular. Only learned of him a couple days back on Biciciclismo.com, I think. Missed Cink, though.


Interesting that the most popular team, Vesica, still has more than a few unpopular picks. Is that a first?

I already got the feeling that I could end up high in the popularity rank, but being first is a surprise!

Indeed interesting to see that a couple of my pick are not very popular. I doubted for a long time about Roy Jans, but I think he can do very well in smaller (and maybe some of the bigger) European (Belgium/French) races.
Michael Hepburn focused last year of the track, that's the reason I picked him. Cheap and high potential. And my first points of the year already!