Jancouver, I hear you
(BTW, I think your team could do even better this year than last)
Let me just give my reasoning behind the ones you have doubts about (and a few others too).
Yates was pretty obvious to me. Young and developing, and if he scored that amount of points in two months, imagine what he could do in a year. He should be a 1000+ rider.
The huge difference between Vanmarcke and
Benoot is that Benoot is only 22, and has plenty of room for development. He's also a better climber and sprinter, which opens up plenty of possibilities Vanmarcke doesn't have. He also lost a very lucrative part of the season to injury. I don't need Benoot to double his points. 800-900 will be great, and among the guys in his price range, I think he's one of the most likely to reach that. Chances for a bust season are almost zero.
What makes
Power different from Intxausti, Malori etc. is that he performed very well in the autumn. He did some super strong domestique work in the Tour of Britain, and should also have a season-by-season development far greater than the Movistar guys.
I love the uniqueness of the
Van Poppel pick. He's a bit like Benoot; a safe and young option for a good increase. Lost most of the spring and the worlds/late season to illness, and proved super consistent in between. Compared to someone like Bonifazio (who I think is very overhyped), he's even competitive against the pure sprinters. Should have more chances in the hardman sprinter races now that Swift is gone, and don't forget he has a lot more points available in the new WT races (Frankfurt, London, perhaps even some of the easier cobbled classics).
Spilak didn't actually have a particularly bad season, just some slightly lower placings than usual, which translated to a lot less points. Also, his late season was non-existant, and even though he's never great after June, he should get
some more points. I think Zakarin won't get as much in the way this year, and Purito gone is also helpful.
Julien Simon is my secret weapon and only unique pick! I almost picked him last year, becuase he had a disrupted pre-season and an unsuitable program in 2015. When he had 218 points by April despite a disrupted pre-season in 2016 too, I regretted leaving him out. But then he got injured and the rest of the season was lost. Now his twitter is filled with pictures of training rides and gym work, he's really motivated, and there are now a plethora of early French races that suits him perfectly, in addition to all the races he couldn't do later in the 2016 season.
Some other rare picks in my team:
Amaury Capiot (309 pts, 7 picks) is another secret weapon. Almost every year, Topsport Vlaanderen have a guy score 1000+ points. Capiot perfectly fits the profile of the two previous ones, Van Asbroeck and Theuns. Similar age, skillset and progression, and with a few of the heavy-hitters from last year gone from the team, it should be all-in for Capiot all year. Considered Roy Jans as well, but he's a bit more unreliable and more expensive. Could maybe have picked both.
Jaime Roson (178 pts, 9 picks) is a great talent and will benefit from the Caja Rural exodus. Should get points in the early Spanish stage races where he was still finding his feet last year, and with all the easy opportunities later in the year, the points should be flowing in, hopefully capped off with a Vuelta stage win. Could've won the Tour of Turkey in 2016 without all the crosswind shenanigans, so his potential score was bigger even last year. Who needs Trofimov?
Jonathan Hivert (173 pts, 7 picks) is surprisingly rare. Thought he would be pretty obvious. Injury-plagued last season, and will now be the best puncheur in Direct Energie. With Coquard being given the top gigs, Hivert should wreak havoc in the smaller French hilly races.
I was hoping
Vincenzo Albanese (159 pts, 24 picks) would be more rare. The strength of this kid is incredible. He has been riding solo away from pelotons all season long, and one of the most impressive performances was one he didn't win. In the U23 EC he did almost all the work in the three-man breakaway, then casually rode Artem Nych and the Avenir winner off his wheel on the last climb, before being caught by the pack 100m from the line. He's even got this confident Pozzato attitude. Albanese could be a revelation in Italian one-day races already this year. My only worry is that every year, only a couple of riders his age score more than 300 points. But if Albanese is the new Sagan, I'm not gonna miss out.
Andrea Vendrame (65 pts, 5 picks) is a bit like Albanese. A bit less talented, but a better climber. Has been super consistent with podium places all over the Italian amateur scene, despite being hit by a car in training early in the year. With the weird schedule of Androni, he should have lots of opportunities in small races. Gavazzi can't do everything.
When Meersman had to retire, it made
Boris Vallée (83 pts, 6 picks) a lot more viable. The 2nd best sprinter and only Belgian rider on a PCT team that will increase its focus on Belgian races. The young Vallée had some mixed results last year. His good ones came in low-point .2 races, so it won't take much improvement for him to increase his score a lot.
Lastly,
Vorganov (6 pts, 10 picks) will be a gold mine on the Asian and Eastern European calendar, and
Van Rooy (0 pts, 6 picks) has had the same kind of problems as Intxausti, but has been back on the bike for a longer time, and has a lot more chances to ride for himself.
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