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The 2017 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

Page 10 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.
Jan 1, 2017
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ARU Fabio 777
GILBERT Philippe 777
KRUIJSWIJK Steven 594
BENOOT Tiesj 588
VAN GARDEREN Tejay 574
EWAN Caleb 552
DEGENKOLB John 550
LANDA MEANA Mikel 479
THEUNS Edward 405
SPILAK Simon 301
NAVARDAUSKAS Ramunas 282
VIVIANI Elia 275
KÖNIG Leopold 264
BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley 159
GOUGEARD Alexis 107
CIMOLAI Davide 106
INTXAUSTI ELORRIAGA Beñat 79
PONZI Simone 78
POWER Robert 77
TROFIMOV Yury 62
BOECKMANS Kris 60
RESTREPO VALENCIA Jhonatan 48
PLANCKAERT Edward 45
PELUCCHI Matteo 45
GANNA Filippo 40
VAN DER POEL Mathieu 38
AGNOLI Valerio 30
VAN STAEYEN Michael 27
VAN DER PLOEG Neil 25
GIRAUD Benjamin 21
ARREDONDO MORENO Julian David 17
DOULL Owain 7
MALORI Adriano 2
 
Heres my team

ARU Fabio
KWIATKOWSKI Michal

These two had disapointing seasons but have high ceilings, considered Nibali, Alaphillippe, Gilbert and Gavira priced higher but decided against


BENOOT Tiesj
VAN GARDEREN Tejay
EWAN Caleb

Ok All could do well, but could dissapoint

DEGENKOLB John

One of the most obvious picks

DEBUSSCHERE Jens

Think he can do well

LANDA MEANA Mikel
BONIFAZIO Niccolo
SPILAK Simon
VIVIANI Elia
KÖNIG Leopold

All seem solid picks after last seasons dissapointments

KÜNG Stefan

Wasn't sure about Kung, but judging from others comments I may have made a good decision

BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley

Can he improve, looking forward to see how he does, could be risky pick

The rest

TEUNS Dylan
BOARO Manuele
SINKELDAM Ramon
LUDVIGSSON Tobias
GOUGEARD Alexis
INTXAUSTI ELORRIAGA Beñat
PONZI Simone
POWER Robert
DUNBAR Eddie
BOECKMANS Kris
KISERLOVSKI Robert
LEDANOIS Kevin
KÄMNA Lennard
PELUCCHI Matteo
DEVOLDER Stijn
JANSE VAN RENSBURG Jacques
DOULL Owain
MALORI Adriano
OLIVIER Daan
 
Squire said:
MADRAZO said:
Squire said:
Martin said:
Karaev1 said:
This is really hard... I already built 2 teams with completely different riders and I am happy with both of them... Can't decide between some old guys that changed teams and should have better season and some really young guys that have a ton of potential...
I used completely different tactics. First of all I made a team of "must have riders". This year it was around 15 riders. Then I build a long list of riders (this year around 50 names) who for ever the reason I think might do better next year and try to combine them so that in the final, I wont exceed 7500 points and the will have 33 names.
This year I spend around 7-8 hours creating a team, more then ever before. The short list of must have riders was done within half hour, but then it became a nightmare. I had to alter a game plan, and had to drop some interesting "must have" riders too so I would fit in game rules.
In the end I am confused too ;-)
To the bolded: In my view, there are only 3-4 absolute must-haves. Maybe just two. Most of the other spots in my team have been changing a lot. There are a few more than the must-haves which have been constant, but that's mostly because I decided early on that they would definitely be in my team, and I don't expect them to be in almost everybody else's team.

My strategy analysis for this year was from a slightly different perspective than last time, so this year my team shouldn't look like skidmark's less talented brother. I'm still going for the "scientific approach", but I'm pretty sure I won't top the popularity rankings again this year, and I might even have a potentially unique pick. :eek:

Hoping to break into the podium spots in 2017!
I agree this season has the fewest certain picks ever in the game and I also think only 2-4 are completely must haves. Then on the other hand there is a big group of riders that are obviously good picks, and I have also had maybe 10-15 of those in my team at all time besides the 4 certain ones, but all those might end up being sacrificed if needed to fit the puzzle. With the lack of very obvious picks this year I would also predict that the winningscore might end up a bit lower than previous years.
I'm curious to see if we agreed on the must-haves. Degenkolb and Viviani should be absolutely nailed on for every team, and for the other semi-must-haves I was thinking along the lines of König and Power. Considered throwing Spilak in there too, but you can easily win the game without him, I guess.
Degenkolb was the most certain for me too and then I actually had Aru as the other 100% certain as he was for me clearly the best/safest of the expensive picks that one needs to have. Then Spilak was certain for me too but as you say he wont deice the game. König and Viviani were not 100% sure for me but clearly both were strong picks and both were also in my team all the time. Power I could have sacrificed as I think hios progress will be a bit slower after his hard time, and I almost changed him to another young talent Andre Looij in the end. But for the price Power was obviously always a fine pick. For the price I also think Riccardo Minali was quite obvious as nr 1 sprinter for Astana, but again he could have been sacrificed to fit the puzzle if needed as he wont decide the game.
 
So this is my first year participating and I haven't gone for a scientific approach at all. I missed quite a lot good picks (Aru,Malori :rolleyes: ) and just recognised I mistook Chevrier for Guillaume Martin :eek: But i like most of my riders and really look forward to follow them through the season. Good luck everyone! :D

POLITT Nils 254
WALSCHEID Maximilian 239
CHEVRIER Clément 53
DEGENKOLB John 550
BOUDAT Thomas 204
MOSER Moreno 281
KÜNG Stefan 225
VLIEGEN Loïc 241
PEDERSEN Mads 195
MÜHLBERGER Gregor 125
ACKERMANN Pascal 258
DOMBROWSKI Joseph Lloyd 158
ROLLAND Pierre 281
VILLELLA Davide 433
FORMOLO Davide 439
MORTON Lachlan 291
BENOOT Tiesj 588
VERVAEKE Louis 109
FERNANDEZ ANDUJAR Ruben 398
CARAPAZ MONTENEGRO Richard Antonio 5
GOGL Michael 208
POWER Robert 77
DE PLUS Laurens 94
LAMPAERT Yves 391
MAMYKIN Matvey 199
SPILAK Simon 301
INTXAUSTI ELORRIAGA Beñat 79
LANDA MEANA Mikel 479
ANDERSEN Søren Kragh 201
CINK Ondrej 0
KÄMNA Lennard 48
MAS NICOLAU Enric 92
 
Apr 19, 2010
521
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@del1962: Very similar high end picks as in my team, which is the following

ARU Fabio 777
KWIATKOWSKI Michal 611
BENOOT Tiesj 588
VAN GARDEREN Tejay 574
EWAN Caleb 552
DEGENKOLB John 550
LANDA MEANA Mikel 479
THWAITES Scott 322
SPILAK Simon 301
FRANK Mathias 297
VIVIANI Elia 275
KÖNIG Leopold 264
BAUHAUS Phil 232
BOOM Lars 212
MAMYKIN Matvey 199
PEDERSEN Mads 195
BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley 159
MANZIN Lorrenzo 142
ZOIDL Riccardo 128
GOUGEARD Alexis 107
PONZI Simone 78
POWER Robert 77
LOOIJ André 69
TROFIMOV Yury 62
KISERLOVSKI Robert 55
ZARDINI Edoardo 48
PELUCCHI Matteo 45
GANNA Filippo 40
JANSE VAN RENSBURG Jacques 29
ARIESEN Tim 16
DEIGNAN Philip 13
MALORI Adriano 2
BERNAS Pawel 0

From seeing others' teams so far, I think I didn't give enough thought to Bonifazio and Kung especially. I didn't consider Gaviria either, but I don't think he would have made my selection. The one expensive pick I had in there for a while and is not appearing in other teams is Alaphilippe, but in the end I decided against him, it would be too risky imo.
 
Dec 12, 2010
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Re:

Pentacycle said:
Anybody else have Holst Enger or Latour??

ARU Fabio 777
LATOUR Pierre 645
KWIATKOWSKI Michal 611
BENOOT Tiesj 588
EWAN Caleb 552
DEGENKOLB John 550
LANDA MEANA Mikel 479
ENGER Sondre Holst 464
OOMEN Sam 336
SPILAK Simon 301
VIVIANI Elia 275
KÖNIG Leopold 264
VLIEGEN Loïc 241
DILLIER Silvan 190
BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley 159
PETILLI Simone 126
LUDVIGSSON Tobias 115
VERVAEKE Louis 109
BETANCUR GOMEZ Carlos Alberto 108
GOUGEARD Alexis 107
CIMOLAI Davide 106
PONZI Simone 78
VAN KEIRSBULCK Guillaume 61
BOECKMANS Kris 60
ZARDINI Edoardo 48
PELUCCHI Matteo 45
VINCENT Léo 38
BIERMANS Jenthe 33
VAN STAEYEN Michael 27
MALORI Adriano 2
VAN ROOY Kenneth 0
OLIVIER Daan 0
CINK Ondrej 0
Proud member of team Latour for the second straight year here :cool:

GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando
ARU Fabio
LOPEZ MORENO Miguel Angel
LATOUR Pierre
BENOOT Tiesj
DEGENKOLB John
VUILLERMOZ Alexis
OOMEN Sam
VIVIANI Elia
ACKERMANN Pascal
PHINNEY Taylor
KÜNG Stefan
BOUDAT Thomas
GAUDU David
BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley
ALBANESE Vincenzo
BRESCHEL Matti
GOUGEARD Alexis
CAVAGNA Rémi
DE PLUS Laurens
POWER Robert
VAN HOOYDONCK Nathan
VAN KEIRSBULCK Guillaume
HERKLOTZ Silvio
KÄMNA Lennard
GANNA Filippo
VAN DER POEL Mathieu
PETERS Nans
DOULL Owain
BOUHANNI Rayane
CARAPAZ MONTENEGRO Richard Antonio
MALORI Adriano
BRUNEL Alexys
 
MADRAZO said:
Squire said:
I'm curious to see if we agreed on the must-haves. Degenkolb and Viviani should be absolutely nailed on for every team, and for the other semi-must-haves I was thinking along the lines of König and Power. Considered throwing Spilak in there too, but you can easily win the game without him, I guess.
Degenkolb was the most certain for me too and then I actually had Aru as the other 100% certain as he was for me clearly the best/safest of the expensive picks that one needs to have. Then Spilak was certain for me too but as you say he wont deice the game. König and Viviani were not 100% sure for me but clearly both were strong picks and both were also in my team all the time. Power I could have sacrificed as I think hios progress will be a bit slower after his hard time, and I almost changed him to another young talent Andre Looij in the end. But for the price Power was obviously always a fine pick. For the price I also think Riccardo Minali was quite obvious as nr 1 sprinter for Astana, but again he could have been sacrificed to fit the puzzle if needed as he wont decide the game.
You just don't sacrifice the biggest climbing talent since Quintana (and much more explosive) for André Looij! :D Power was impressive enough in the Tour of Britain to ease my fears of diminished powers ( ;) ) next season. He should be at least as impressive as Lopez was in his neo-season, and with a much better racing program.

I picked Aru as well, and I agree he's likely up there among the must-haves. But with König/Viviani there are just no alternatives in their price range which come close to their risk/reward score. It's easier to have a decent-ish replacement for Aru.
 
Here is my squad for 2017! Good luck to all!

Julian Alaphilippe

IInur Zakarin

Fernando Gaviria

Warren Barguil

Louis Meintjes

John Degenkolb

Leopold Konig

Matvey Mamykin

Jack Haig

Jaime Roson

Joe Dombrowski

Brendan Canty

Dylan Teuns

Toms Skujins

Killian Frankiny

Martijn Tusveld

Chris Hamilton

Louis Vervaeke

Carlos Betancur

Alexis Gougeard

Maximilian Schachmann

Simone Consonni

Benat Intxausti

Robert Power

Pawel Poljanski

Yury Trofimov

Kris Boeckmans

Jhonatan Restrepo

Aldemar Reyes

Sebastian Molano

Julian Arredondo

Hernan Aguirre

Richard Carapaz
 
Here's my team:

GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando 833
ARU Fabio 777
YATES Simon 621
BENOOT Tiesj 588
DEGENKOLB John 550
LANDA MEANA Mikel 479
VAN POPPEL Danny 477
CAPIOT Amaury 309
SPILAK Simon 301
VIVIANI Elia 275
KÖNIG Leopold 264
SIMON Julien 231
MAMYKIN Matvey 199
ROSON GARCIA Jaime 178
HIVERT Jonathan 173
ALBANESE Vincenzo 159
TEUNS Dylan 150
MACHADO Tiago Jose Pinto 140
VERVAEKE Louis 109
DE PLUS Laurens 94
MAS NICOLAU Enric 92
VALLEE Boris 83
PONZI Simone 78
POWER Robert 77
VENDRAME Andrea 65
VAN KEIRSBULCK Guillaume 61
RESTREPO VALENCIA Jhonatan 48
PLANCKAERT Edward 45
MINALI Riccardo 26
DOULL Owain 7
VORGANOV Eduard 6
CARAPAZ MONTENEGRO Richard Antonio 5
VAN ROOY Kenneth 0

I also considered all the riders who seem to be popular in other teams, but I decided my team would be better off without them. We'll see how that goes.

I think I'll write more about some of my picks (or my non-picks) when we get the popularity charts tomorrow.
 
Jul 8, 2015
67
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QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander
KITTEL Marcel
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban
LOPEZ MORENO Miguel Angel
MOSCON Gianni
OOMEN Sam
CARTHY Hugh
EISENHART Taylor 70
GUERREIRO Ruben Antonio Almeida
BICO Nuno Miguel Alves Matos 20
DUNNE Conor
ARREDONDO MORENO Julian David
MARONESE Marco
SCOTSON Callum
DEIGNAN Philip
TROIA Oliviero
GATE Aaron
ALMEIDA Joao Pedro Gonçalves
OLIVEIRA Ivo Emanuel Alves
OLIVEIRA Rui Filipe Alves
NARVAEZ PRADO Jhonatan Manuel
VIEL Mattia
POWLESS Neilson
MCCORMICK Hayden
KÄMNA Lennard
MALORI Adriano
DIAZ GALLEGO Jose Manuel
RICE Michael


My team!!!!!!!
 
Oct 23, 2011
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Hmmmm....... So the most important pick I seem to miss is Aru. I don't know, I'm personally not that convinced by Aru, but I might be mistaken in that.

My team is:
KWIATKOWSKI Michal
EWAN Caleb
MEINTJES Louis
DEGENKOLB John
ROGLIC Primoz
LANDA MEANA Mikel
CARTHY Hugh
FRANK Mathias
NAVARDAUSKAS Ramunas
ROLLAND Pierre
VIVIANI Elia
KÖNIG Leopold
SEPULVEDA Eduardo
BOOM Lars
MAMYKIN Matvey
CICCONE Giulio
DILLIER Silvan
FRAILE MATARRANZ Omar
BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley
DOMBROWSKI Joseph Lloyd
VALLS FERRI Rafael
BRESCHEL Matti
POWLESS Neilson
GOUGEARD Alexis
DE PLUS Laurens
MARTINEZ POVEDA Daniel Felipe
INTXAUSTI ELORRIAGA Beñat
POWER Robert
VENDRAME Andrea
VAN KEIRSBULCK Guillaume
KÄMNA Lennard
CARAPAZ MONTENEGRO Richard Antonio
MALORI Adriano
 
MADRAZO, I'm afraid you evaluated the team of Jancouver, who skidmark was trolling :lol:

I'm pretty sure Costa, Van den Broeck, Daniel and Acevedo won't be in skidmark's team.
 
Sep 28, 2011
394
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0
DUMOULIN Tom 1260
MATTHEWS Michael 1234
GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando 833
THOMAS Geraint 802
KELDERMAN Wilco 793
ARU Fabio 777
DENNIS Rohan 738
DEGENKOLB John 550
LANDA MEANA Mikel 479
DOULL Owain 7
OIEN Justin 6
BARTA William 5
CARAPAZ MONTENEGRO Richard Antonio 5
MAISON Jérémy 5
PEREZ Anthony 3
MALORI Adriano 2
CORNU Jérémy 1
BOWDEN Scott 0
BROWN Jonny 0
CORBEL Erwann 0
DE VYLDER Lindsay 0
GARRISON Ian 0
GUILLEMOIS Romain 0
JASPERS Jappe 0
LAAS Martin 0
MALECKI Kamil 0
MCNULTY Brandon 0
OLIVEIRA Ivo Emanuel Alves 0
PACINOTTI Niccolo 0
SERPA PEREZ Jose Rodolfo 0
SOSA CUERVO Ivan Ramiro 0
TROSINO Mirko 0
WILLIAMS Samuel 0
 
Re:

I meant to submit a team this year, but again forgot about it!

rodanafrenteguigs said:
DUNNE Connor
GATE Aaron
I'm a little surprised not to see more Aquablue guys in the teams posted so far. It seems to me that there's some value there at both ends of their price spectrum: Riders like Nordhaug or Denifl who will be leaders with a decent programme, or riders like Gate who cost next to nothing but will be riding a strong calendar for the first time. Gate for instance is a track WC and Olympic medalist who has only been a part time roadie at Conti level before, winning a few .2 sprints. It's hard to see how he can avoid at least doubling his 14 point cost while riding full time on the road at PCT level.
 
Squire said:
MADRAZO said:
Squire said:
I'm curious to see if we agreed on the must-haves. Degenkolb and Viviani should be absolutely nailed on for every team, and for the other semi-must-haves I was thinking along the lines of König and Power. Considered throwing Spilak in there too, but you can easily win the game without him, I guess.
Degenkolb was the most certain for me too and then I actually had Aru as the other 100% certain as he was for me clearly the best/safest of the expensive picks that one needs to have. Then Spilak was certain for me too but as you say he wont deice the game. König and Viviani were not 100% sure for me but clearly both were strong picks and both were also in my team all the time. Power I could have sacrificed as I think hios progress will be a bit slower after his hard time, and I almost changed him to another young talent Andre Looij in the end. But for the price Power was obviously always a fine pick. For the price I also think Riccardo Minali was quite obvious as nr 1 sprinter for Astana, but again he could have been sacrificed to fit the puzzle if needed as he wont decide the game.
You just don't sacrifice the biggest climbing talent since Quintana (and much more explosive) for André Looij! :D Power was impressive enough in the Tour of Britain to ease my fears of diminished powers ( ;) ) next season. He should be at least as impressive as Lopez was in his neo-season, and with a much better racing program.

I picked Aru as well, and I agree he's likely up there among the must-haves. But with König/Viviani there are just no alternatives in their price range which come close to their risk/reward score. It's easier to have a decent-ish replacement for Aru.
In the end I suppose that was also what I concluded, that a talent as huge as Power could not be sacrificed despite the ? after his break, and even if I really did want Looij on my team and think he will do well. I hope you are right about Power for 2017 :)

About Viviani, König and Aru. I suppose you are kind of right that Viviani and König perhaps stands out more compared to those at similar prices than Aru compared to Gaviria for instance. I just decided on Aru very quickly and stood by that and never put Viviani and König as certain before finishing my puzzle. But in reality they were never in danger of not making my team either.
 
Apr 19, 2010
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Re: Re:

Zinoviev Letter said:
I meant to submit a team this year, but again forgot about it!

rodanafrenteguigs said:
DUNNE Connor
GATE Aaron
I'm a little surprised not to see more Aquablue guys in the teams posted so far. It seems to me that there's some value there at both ends of their price spectrum: Riders like Nordhaug or Denifl who will be leaders with a decent programme, or riders like Gate who cost next to nothing but will be riding a strong calendar for the first time. Gate for instance is a track WC and Olympic medalist who has only been a part time roadie at Conti level before, winning a few .2 sprints. It's hard to see how he can avoid at least doubling his 14 point cost while riding full time on the road at PCT level.
Doubling 14 points is not a great prospect. From riders in the 0-50 range one would hope for at least 150 point return in order to be worth picking.
 
Re:

Squire said:
MADRAZO, I'm afraid you evaluated the team of Jancouver, who skidmark was trolling :lol:

I'm pretty sure Costa, Van den Broeck, Daniel and Acevedo won't be in skidmark's team.
Haha, too used to ignore Jancouvers posts to notice :) I was a bit surpriced about those 4 too, but not enough to notice my error I suppose.
 
ARU Fabio 777
KWIATKOWSKI Michal 611
BENOOT Tiesj 588
BETTIOL Alberto 568
DEGENKOLB John 550
THEUNS Edward 405
LAMPAERT Yves 391
GESINK Robert 369
FRANK Mathias 297
ROLLAND Pierre 281
KÖNIG Leopold 264
WALSCHEID Maximilian 239
WÜRTZ SCHMIDT Mads 229
KÜNG Stefan 225
MAMYKIN Matvey 199
GAUDU David 196
DILLIER Silvan 190
DOMBROWSKI Joseph Lloyd 158
TEUNS Dylan 150
VALLS FERRI Rafael 129
CONSONNI Simone 89
LAMBRECHT Bjorg 89
DIBBEN Jonathan 82
INTXAUSTI ELORRIAGA Beñat 79
PONZI Simone 78
POWER Robert 77
BOECKMANS Kris 60
KÄMNA Lennard 48
HANSEN Lasse Norman 46
ARREDONDO MORENO Julian David 17
DOULL Owain 7
CARAPAZ MONTENEGRO Richard Antonio 5
MALORI Adriano 2


I hope for the sake of other teams that I have 2 unique picks, because of a dual brainfart. I was getting frustrated that I had a team I was happy with at a little under 7000 points, and somehow thought that Bettiol was a good quick pick for a c500pt rider who would improve. And I think Lambrecht had occurred to me as an option for another game, but who somehow got imbedded in this shortlist and not noticed on reviewing.

Oh well, on to the next game...
 
Re: Re:

togo95 said:
Zinoviev Letter said:
I meant to submit a team this year, but again forgot about it!

rodanafrenteguigs said:
DUNNE Connor
GATE Aaron
I'm a little surprised not to see more Aquablue guys in the teams posted so far. It seems to me that there's some value there at both ends of their price spectrum: Riders like Nordhaug or Denifl who will be leaders with a decent programme, or riders like Gate who cost next to nothing but will be riding a strong calendar for the first time. Gate for instance is a track WC and Olympic medalist who has only been a part time roadie at Conti level before, winning a few .2 sprints. It's hard to see how he can avoid at least doubling his 14 point cost while riding full time on the road at PCT level.
Doubling 14 points is not a great prospect. From riders in the 0-50 range one would hope for at least 150 point return in order to be worth picking.
That does not make a great deal of sense to me. 14 points turning to say, 42 is a good use of 14 points. Particularly if doubling or trebling a low point investment is the floor of what can reasonably be expected from a rider. Gate for instance could quite reasonably be better than that - he was very high level on the track and has some minor road wins as a part timer - it's just hard to know how much better. But even if he sucks, he should double those points just by not falling off.

Is there some general tactical reason why points invested in low cost riders need a 1000% prospective return while points invested in higher point riders need only be doubled or trebled to be considered an excellent choice?
 
Mar 14, 2009
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MADRAZO said:
skidmark said:
Here's my team:

GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando 833
ARU Fabio 777
DENNIS Rohan 738
EWAN Caleb 552
DEGENKOLB John 550
LANDA MEANA Mikel 479
BONIFAZIO Niccolo 347
OOMEN Sam 336
NAVARDAUSKAS Ramunas 282
VIVIANI Elia 275
COSTA Adrien 274
KÖNIG Leopold 264
KÜNG Stefan 225
DOMBROWSKI Joseph Lloyd 158
MACHADO Tiago Jose Pinto 140
VAN DEN BROECK Jurgen 133
MÜHLBERGER Gregor 125
BRESCHEL Matti 116
VERVAEKE Louis 109
BETANCUR GOMEZ Carlos Alberto 108
DANIEL Gregory 104
SCHACHMANN Maximilian 101
ACEVEDO CALLE Janier Alexis 87
SCHLEGEL Michal 83
INTXAUSTI ELORRIAGA Beñat 79
PONZI Simone 78
KÄMNA Lennard 48
PELUCCHI Matteo 45
VAN STAEYEN Michael 27
ARREDONDO MORENO Julian David 17
DOULL Owain 7
MALORI Adriano 2
MCNULTY Brandon 0
The team of the defending champion deserves a quick evaluation.

Solid and interesting team as usual. Im glad you have picked Oomen too, whom I considder my weakest pick. Then I guess your big gamble is Rohan Dennis. Gutsy pick that I actually had barely considdered as an option with the competition of other expensive riders like Gaviria, Lopez and Kwiatkowski. But thinking about it he could be your key to succes and if the Giro-GC-gamble works he could end up a great pick. That could very well fail though and then he would likely struggle to earn enough points. Then you have fitted in more of the cheap picks than me that are all potential great picks with little risk. They could all turn out as a new Petit for you again. I suppose especially a rider like Van Staeyen has a quite similar situation as Petit and he could likely do just as well if he finds his old form and gets a few chances and the same with Pelucchi. Malori I guess could do both 5 points or 600 in the end I did not want to waste a space, but I might easily regreat that. McNulty is an interesting pick that I also did not considder much due to the age, I suppose his potential scoring limit is lower but that he has a good chance to earn enough to justify using the spot. Seing how much Costa scored this season he might very well be a great pick. Then I feel G. Daniel is talented but Im sceptical if he will improve his score much and get much own chances next season, but he could prove me wrong, and then I also think Adrian Costa despite his enormous talent will have trouble improving enough to be a good pick still riding for Axeon. Finally Van Den Broeck was very cheap but I skipped him since he would only aim for the Ardennes and sounds like he will only help the rest of the year, but at the price I suppose he is very small risk with a big potential, and the same with Machado that seems over the hill so that I have lost most of my faith in him, but he could potentially still make a comeback and be a great pick. I think in general your team is quite smart in the sence that you have picked a lot of riders that are very low in the score compared to their potential so that if some of them succeeds its fine that others continues to dissapoint and perhaps better than like my own team where most riders will perhaps be more likely to improve their points but are less likely to do more than doubling, so that those failing me are destroying more.
Thanks for the quick evaluation of my team :D

Just a few comments:

GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando 833
Considering he wasted half of his 2016 season at the track and training for Olympics, and also had a bad luck at MSR - he should be at 2000 points with a healthy season.

ARU Fabio 777
Obvious pick

DENNIS Rohan 738
With his TT & GC potential ... 2000 points is possible. Boatload of points from the AUS summer, TDF yellow after stage 1. TT is almost certain. (Unless 13km is too short for him?) The only issues I see, is that he may be slaving too much for the little midget. Maybe he can win smaller WT races such California etc.

EWAN Caleb 552
Personally, I'm not a fan of his, but with all those points for a grab at TDU, he should be at his cost by MSR. We all know 1200-1500 is doable for every decent sprinter.

DEGENKOLB John 550
Duh!

LANDA MEANA Mikel 479
Obvious Pick

BONIFAZIO Niccolo 347
I had him last year too and he should get a better support at Bahrain. Hoping for 1000 points. He was the last addition after I removed Kwiatko in exchange for him and NAVARDAUSKAS

OOMEN Sam 336
Who knows. Maybe 1000 maybe 100.

NAVARDAUSKAS Ramunas 282
He got talent to score 1000 if his talent is not wasted by domestique duties.

VIVIANI Elia 275
Obvious pick

COSTA Adrien 274
The biggest American talent since Lemond. I just have to have him. As per points, I don't care if he scores zero. Maybe he is the next Sagan and at 274, he is cheap.

KÖNIG Leopold 264
Obvious pick

KÜNG Stefan 225
Big talent and potential but may not be obvious pick.

DOMBROWSKI Joseph Lloyd 158
same as above

MACHADO Tiago Jose Pinto 140
didnt want him, but at 140, I had no choice.

VAN DEN BROECK Jurgen 133
same as Machado

MÜHLBERGER Gregor 125
He can TT and he won the Peace Race in 2015 :)

BRESCHEL Matti 116
same as Machado & JVDB

VERVAEKE Louis 109
Should improve

BETANCUR GOMEZ Carlos Alberto 108
Oh boy, how much I hate to have this fat pig on my team

DANIEL Gregory 104
I just like his attacking style and he is the current US champ. Doubling his points should be easy.

SCHACHMANN Maximilian 101
Young TT guy

ACEVEDO CALLE Janier Alexis 87
Can he find his climbing legs and score some points at California? That should be enough since the TdC is now WT

SCHLEGEL Michal 83
Supposedly, when they tested him at QuickStep, they measured the highest power per Kg ever! Therefore, he should be able to climb. With Rebellin gone, he & Hirt should get some chances at CCC. He was cheaper of the two, thats why I picked him over Hirt.

INTXAUSTI ELORRIAGA Beñat 79
Obvious pick

PONZI Simone 78
Cheap pick, high potential?

KÄMNA Lennard 48
Who knows, better to have him at this cost.

PELUCCHI Matteo 45
same as Ponzi

VAN STAEYEN Michael 27
Cheap

ARREDONDO MORENO Julian David 17
Cheap

DOULL Owain 7
CHeap talent?

MALORI Adriano 2
Obvious pick

MCNULTY Brandon 0
The local boy and junior TT champ. Maybe he can duplicate what Adrian Costa did in 2016
 
Apr 19, 2010
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Re: Re:

Zinoviev Letter said:
That does not make a great deal of sense to me. 14 points turning to say, 42 is a good use of 14 points. Particularly if doubling or trebling a low point investment is the floor of what can reasonably be expected from a rider. Gate for instance could quite reasonably be better than that - he was very high level on the track and has some minor road wins as a part timer - it's just hard to know how much better. But even if he sucks, he should double those points just by not falling off.

Is there some general tactical reason why points invested in low cost riders need a 1000% prospective return while points invested in higher point riders need only be doubled or trebled to be considered an excellent choice?
It is because apart from a budget of 7500 points, the team has to have at most 33 cyclists in it. So the cost of a rider is his point value from last year PLUS taking up a spot on your team. For those with very low point value, most of their cost actually consists of taking up a spot. That's why when calculating the potential usefulness of a certain (low level) rider, one cannot just take expected return relative to point value.

Also there are many cyclists in that point range (0-50 say), and there will be some who have a very good chance for much higher return around 100-250, so picking a rider who has expected return around 50 is not optimal strategy in such case.
 
Re: Re:

togo95 said:
It is because apart from a budget of 7500 points, the team has to have at most 33 cyclists in it. So the cost of a rider is his point value from last year PLUS taking up a spot on your team. For those with very low point value, most of their cost actually consists of taking up a spot. That's why when calculating the potential usefulness of a certain (low level) rider, one cannot just take expected return relative to point value.
This makes sense. Thanks. Judging by the teams so far, the general strategy seems to be a few riders between 500 and 800 coupled with a larger number between 100 and 300, with the remnant made up by a thin tail of cheap riders. Has anyone tried to work out an optimal strategy in theory?
 
Jan 6, 2014
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This is my team and I know it's better than the 2016 one:

ANDERSEN Søren Kragh
ARREDONDO MORENO Julian David
ARU Fabio
BARGUIL Warren
BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley
BYSTRØM Sven Erik
CARAPAZ MONTENEGRO Richard Antonio
CHTIOUI Rafaâ
CORT NIELSEN Magnus
DEGENKOLB John
DOULL Owain
FERNANDEZ ANDUJAR Ruben
GALTA Fredrik Strand
GAUDU David
GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando
INTXAUSTI ELORRIAGA Beñat
JANS Roy
KÖNIG Leopold
KÜNG Stefan
LAMPAERT Yves
LOOIJ André
MALORI Adriano
MAMYKIN Matvey
MARTINEZ POVEDA Daniel Felipe
OLIVIER Daan
POWER Robert
ROSON GARCIA Jaime
STENUIT Robin
THEUNS Edward
TROFIMOV Yury
VAN DER POEL Mathieu
VIVIANI Elia
VLIEGEN Loïc

I'm surprised to see Küng is considered a must have, I thought he will be a bit of a gamble and wasn't sure to include him.
Kwiatkowski still has a high ceiling but he and Sky do not work, I hope that Gaviria will outscore him again this season.
I included Cort Nielsen instead of Benoot because I think Cort Nielsen will be the designated sprinter in many races now so he has the potential to double (as has Benoot but I'm not sure about his race program, a GT can cost him potential points).
I'm not sure Landa will get his chance at the Giro so I decided against him and gave Barguil another chance. He should do better than last year, can be worth 1000 points.
I think Andersen Søren Kragh will get his chance in smaller races again this year and has the potential to double his points. Oomen is the bigger talent but he's younger and I think he might struggle to get his last year score in some bigger races.
Ruben Fernandez can double his points or not improve at all but I like him.
Gaudu is a massive talent and I hope he can score in smaller french races as I don't have anybody else for these.
Jans Roy got the call over Bonifazio simply because I don't like his team which also means I will lose points in the italian calendar unless Viviani races them in the Italian team.
I don't think I'll have a unique pick.
 

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