Re: Re:
I didn't consider Carapaz, at least for more than a second - he wasn't even on my 105 rider longlist. I think I do rate him, as a possible medium-to-long-term talent, but not as a good CQ investment this year. Part of that is lack of knowledge - to be honest, my sources on up-and-coming young riders are rather piecemeal (not a lot of good english-language resources that I've found), and so I tend to base most of my assessments on actual (searchable through CQ or PCS) results. Which, Carapaz had some good results in 2016, according to PCS he didn't DNF a single race, a quality I particularly like. And his pro races at the end of the year, he finished quite capably, not outrageously far from the leading group. So he definitely has potential to rise above pack fodder - it's conceivable to see him turning 30-40th placings in HC races into 10-20th placings this year. But even if I had more info, I'm wary of putting too much on subjective online assessments. People tend to get excited about how talented a rider could be in the future rather than realistic about how he will be this year. Which is awesome, but not ideal for this game. Henao was hyped as hell by people here, but if I hadn't seen his talent with my own eyes in Utah in 2011 at a pretty high-level race, I might have left him off my squad in 2012. Ospina was another example of someone who was hyped, and lots of people took him and he did nothing. Hell, I remember the "Jesus Hernandez outclimbs Contador in training camp" hype, but if this game had existed then I would have been foolish to pick him. But my main issue is that even if Carapaz has the talent, it tends to take awhile for that to bleed through at Movistar. Looking at some relatively young talent there, of Ruben Fernandez, Marc Soler, Dayer Quintana and Jasha Sutterlin, only Fernandez got more than 200 points last year. Unless I was confident Carapaz would likely clear 200 and had a ceiling of at least 3-400, he wouldn't be a lock for this game. And given that uncertainty (like, he could get 45 points this year), I would choose to pass.
But anyone who's paid attention knows I'm risk-averse in this game. I'm always excited by the variety of styles of teams, and particularly like your dedication to emerging riders. Can I ask you why you would pick Carapaz? And also, where do you find info on him or a rider like him?
Jakob747 said:I am curious to know if you at some point considered adding Richard Carapaz this year? What's your reasoning for leaving him out of your squad. Don't you rate him?
I didn't consider Carapaz, at least for more than a second - he wasn't even on my 105 rider longlist. I think I do rate him, as a possible medium-to-long-term talent, but not as a good CQ investment this year. Part of that is lack of knowledge - to be honest, my sources on up-and-coming young riders are rather piecemeal (not a lot of good english-language resources that I've found), and so I tend to base most of my assessments on actual (searchable through CQ or PCS) results. Which, Carapaz had some good results in 2016, according to PCS he didn't DNF a single race, a quality I particularly like. And his pro races at the end of the year, he finished quite capably, not outrageously far from the leading group. So he definitely has potential to rise above pack fodder - it's conceivable to see him turning 30-40th placings in HC races into 10-20th placings this year. But even if I had more info, I'm wary of putting too much on subjective online assessments. People tend to get excited about how talented a rider could be in the future rather than realistic about how he will be this year. Which is awesome, but not ideal for this game. Henao was hyped as hell by people here, but if I hadn't seen his talent with my own eyes in Utah in 2011 at a pretty high-level race, I might have left him off my squad in 2012. Ospina was another example of someone who was hyped, and lots of people took him and he did nothing. Hell, I remember the "Jesus Hernandez outclimbs Contador in training camp" hype, but if this game had existed then I would have been foolish to pick him. But my main issue is that even if Carapaz has the talent, it tends to take awhile for that to bleed through at Movistar. Looking at some relatively young talent there, of Ruben Fernandez, Marc Soler, Dayer Quintana and Jasha Sutterlin, only Fernandez got more than 200 points last year. Unless I was confident Carapaz would likely clear 200 and had a ceiling of at least 3-400, he wouldn't be a lock for this game. And given that uncertainty (like, he could get 45 points this year), I would choose to pass.
But anyone who's paid attention knows I'm risk-averse in this game. I'm always excited by the variety of styles of teams, and particularly like your dedication to emerging riders. Can I ask you why you would pick Carapaz? And also, where do you find info on him or a rider like him?