The 2020 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

[tobydawq]

Surprised btw so many people see Yates as a no-brainer. Tbf he was the hardest Rider to leave out but really if you look at his last season, points wise it doesn't really look like that much of an outlier to his previous years, with the exception of 2018 of course, but that was a huge outlier in itself.

Yes, but that was also just two days away from being 500 points better still.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Written last night before seeing anyone else's updates:

My team:

HIGUITA GARCIA Sergio Andres 914
My big, big gamble is my most expensive rider. The Higuita Monster looks like he could become a new Valverde. Consistent throughout the season, high placings in all his races, a very fast sprint compared to his peers. I hope his first full season on the WorldTour will result in even more points, especially in the spring, and then maybe there could be lots and lots and lots of points for him in the Vuelta, if I should be so lucky that he is sent there. If he really breaks through, I think he could be good for close to 2000 points.

HIRSCHI Marc 540
A gamble. He flew a bit under the radar due to Gaudu and Pogacar last year but by normal standards, his 2019 season was mightily impressive for a rider his age. He's a bit pricey because of that but his consistency last year was pretty amazing. As well as his versatility. If he continues his rocket-like entrance on the pro scene, he could go four digits.


Riders I fear were stupid not to pick:
Mathieu van der Poel (1365) - but he really has to win more than half his classics to be a good pick as it's unlikely he'll race much on the road after Flèche Wallonne due to his MTB goals. And I didn't want to take that risk. On the other hand, he might be asked to race more on the road because they need the points to finish as best ProConti team.

Wout Van Aert (898) - I wanted him but opted against him because I was unsure of what level he would be able to get back to. And the WCRR is not for him + he will probably domestique a bit too much in the Tour. He could still go berzerk in the classics and make me regret not picking him. Picking Higuita over Van Aert might seem a bit brave.

Enric Mas (811) - A popular rider on this board but I am generally a little hesitant about him. I definitely would have picked him if he didn't go and win Guangxi to boost his price in the last race of the season. The same goes for his two podium companions, Dani Martínez and Diego Rosa who also became a little too expensive for my taste with that addition to their tallies.

Geraint Thomas (795) - Actually I don't really fear him that much. He might seem like an obvious pick, but he isn't scoring many points outside the Tour, which he won't win either.

Valentin Madouas (540) - At exactly the same price as Hirschi it was mano-a-mano between those two, but I chose against Madouas because I was a bit surprised over his very lacklustre second half of 2019 and feared a little too many race days would go to being a domestique for Pinot. Same reason I didn't even consider Gaudu.



I also became very fond of Benoît Cosnefroy (683) last season but chose not to pick him because there were other riders in his price range (Yates and Kwiatkowski) that I didn't dare not to pick. But he could really explode this year, I think. I would be surprise if he is a popular pick, though.

Funny to read your post as I also strongly considered all of these expensive riders. Of all Madouas was closest to making it onto my team, but I have good hopes for all of them, they were all just 100 or 200 points too expensive to make the cut. Except Thomas, whom I feel exactly the same about as you as well

 

[fuiers]

This is exactly what I feared when scrolling through the rankings. Did Froome seriously have such a bad 2019? With 77 pts he is an steal. Should have him on my team. First year rookie mistake for me.

 

[Salvarani]

I see, so far, nobody has had the balls to take Sagan. I feel like I'm so gonna regret picking him.

Surprised btw so many people see Yates as a no-brainer. Tbf he was the hardest Rider to leave out but really if you look at his last season, points wise it doesn't really look like that much of an outlier to his previous years, with the exception of 2018 of course, but that was a huge outlier in itself. I don't really fear he'll reach that level again, I think that was a freak season comparable to stuff like Gilbert's 2011 freak season that also never got repeated. Also it's not like his season was a complete failure. His giro was perfectly in line with everything he has done before 2018 and he even won two tour stages. Sure he also had a lot of spots to improve massively but I'm not 100% confident he'll do so.

Edit: Really the one thing that worries me is him racing in Australia which I completely missed. That's always a great recipe for a bucket load of point completely unrepresentative for how good someone actually is

Looking at his results, he didnt do very well on GC in any race. Not even the one-week races. I figured if he does better in those races this year. A top 5 or even top 10 in Giro. His potential in Olympics and Worlds. two courses that suits him. There is definitely the making for a great season. If finding form. Starts early in TDU which could be some easy points. To me it looked like a good pick but anything can happen. Bad form. Injuries.

It looked like a risk worth taking. Especially what he showed in 2018. If it was a freak-year, only the future can tell.

 

[Karaev1]

EVENEPOEL Remco 952

He may be the god of cycling so I just could not resist picking him. Could be a mistake considering his high price and his very young age but nobody expected him to be this good last season. What if he blows away all expectations again? It will be very fun to watch him at the Olympics and in his first Grand Tour so I am very happy I will have multiple reasons to cheer for him.

VAN AERT Wout 898

Another risky expensive pick but if Van Aert is back at his pre injury form I think this is a no-brainer. He looked decent in the Cyclo-Cross return and in interviews he say he should be close to 100% this spring.

PINOT Thibaut 861

Easy pick imo. Last year in Le Tour before his crash and should get his usual 1500 points without too many problems this year. Worlds and Olympics also looks good for him so maybe he could even get close to 2000.

BARDET Romain 734

Finally he will ride Il Giro and this should help him points wise. Olympics and Worlds fits him well too. He starts his season in Australia where he could get some easy points. I predict this will be his best season ever points wise and for me he was a very easy pick.

YATES Simon 668

Another easy pick for me! Yates will also start in Australia and will also go to Giro, with the Olympics and Worlds as objectives too. Another 2000+ season is not impossible!

HODEG CHAGUI Alvaro Jose 488

I hope he will be a sneaky rare pick. There are many things that will probably scare some people from picking him with Sam Bennett joining the team and with his nasty crash in the last race of 209 but I still see him as one of the fastest sprinters in the world .

LATOUR Pierre 352

Another easy pick. He is very strong and he looked great in his return from injury last year. Expect him to double his points.

DUMOULIN Tom 341

Obvious pick.

ROSA Diego 297

This was probably my hardest pick but I love Rosa from his time at Astana and Androni. At Sky he did not had many chances to ride as leader and this should change at his new team. He had an impressive end of the season and he may be sneaky candidate for a good result at the Olympics for Italy if he finds his old form.

BOUHANNI Nacer 276

He was not initially in my plans but in the end I decided I just could not risk it. He was also a good fit in the team budget and I am actually glad I ended up selecting him.

MCNULTY Brandon 267

Amazing climbing talent that also have decent TT skills. He should be good in 1 week races and he may surprise people in 1 day races too. I am a huge believer in his talent so he was a lock for me.

RIABUSHENKO Aliaksandr 257

This guy is 24 years old and I believe this is the year he will explode! He is a huge talent that can climb a little but also have great speed.

PADUN Mark 209

Talented climber that missed the start of the last season because of injury but impressed in the second part.

OOMEN Sam 179

Obvious pick.

DILLIER Silvan 101

He may have another 400-600 season so I just could not risk not picking him.

FROOME Chris 77

Obvious pick.

MODOLO Sacha 67

Experienced sprinter that moved to Pro Conti level. He had many health problems last season but he is healthy now from what I read. Should score a lot of points if his form is decent.

WEEMAES Sasha 66

Very talented but also very young sprinter for Sport Vlaanderen. If he can show that he is indeed one of the fastest guy on this team and get a leader role he could get a ton of points in the smaller Belgium 1 day races.

POWER Robert 56

I had him last year but he was pretty bad. He was one of the biggest U23 talents years ago and I still hope he can turn his career around.

MINALI Riccardo 52

He should be able to score some points at his new team. My concern is that there are a lot of sprinters at Nippo but he is starting in Amissa Bongo where he should get some easy points.


MÄDER Gino 50

Amazing talent had a mediocre first season as a pro.

ARDILA ORDOÑEZ Andres Camilo 44

The new big colombian sensation? After his amaing performance in Baby Giro my answer would be yes!

HÄNNINEN Jaakko 41

He only started his season in may but was impressive in some races. He is clearly talented and should have a nice season.

CEPEDA ORTIZ Jefferson Alexander 36

Androni young South America climbers almost always get a good amount of points with their racing schedule. Cepeda was impressive in Avenir and I expect him to get at least 200 points this season.
RODENBERG MADSEN Frederik 34

One of my late adds to the team. He is a very strong sprinter despite being very young. Last year he managed to win Frankfurt u23 , beating Groves .

VICHOT Arthur 28

Obvious pick.

CAVENDISH Mark 25

Obvious pick.

ENGER Sondre Holst 18

Hope he will be a rare pick and will come back to his old form with his new smaller team.

EVANS Alexander 13

Very interesting talent. With Martin leaving Wanty I hope he will be their new climber project and he will have a similar developement.

KANTER Max 8

Obvious pick.

DE BIE Sean 5

Should be better at lower level.

ARENSMAN Thymen

Went with him insted of Quinn. Hope I won't regret it in the end.

 

[fauniera]

Looks like I could be dominating the Asian circuit this year with Celano and Ficara!

I like that. I almost picked Ficara myself. Celano won't ride Langkawi and is quite unstable, so i didn't really consider him.

The rider I'm most concerned about not having is Kragh Andersen. He was in my team at first, but in the end I couldn't fit him in anymore...

Yeah, that guy is very strong but where is he going to score big? He is not a climber, not a sprinter, his time trialling is good but not great and (perhaps surprisingly) he hasn't done much on the cobbles.

 

[Joelsim]

My team.

SAGAN Peter	1582
EVENEPOEL Remco	952
PINOT Thibaut	861
YATES Simon	668
HIRSCHI Marc	540
MOSCON Gianni	424
LATOUR Pierre	352
DUMOULIN Tom	341
ROOSEN Timo	272
OOMEN Sam	179
RESTREPO VALENCIA Jhonatan	167
VAKOC Petr	145
FOSS Tobias Svendsen	127
GROVES Kaden	106
VAN WILDER Ilan	98
BAGIOLI Andrea	83
FERNANDEZ ANDUJAR Ruben	83
FROOME Chris	77
RIES Michel	58
POWER Robert	56
RUBIO REYES Einer Augusto	52
OSORIO CARVAJAL Alejandro	51
ARDILA ORDOÑEZ Andres Camilo	44
JERMAN Ziga	42
KIRYIENKA Vasil	36
TEJADA CANACUE Harold Alfonso	36
CAVENDISH Mark	25
COVI Alessandro	21
KANTER Max	8
DE BIE Sean	5
ARENSMAN Thymen	0
RODRIGUEZ CANO Carlos	0
SIMMONS Quinn	0

 

[Nyssinator]

My thought process starting picking my roster this year was that every rider needs to be able to double their points.
If you look at the winning scores from earlier years a score of 15000 points will be a top result.

I started picking low cost riders and suddenly was left with 4000 points and 10 riders left to pick so had to add some >400 scorers from last season.
I picked Pinot, Bardet, Yates, Kwiatkowski(ended up with the exact same riders as the 7 top picks from MADRAZOs team), but im not sure if these guys will double their score, especially Pinot to take 1700 cq is highly doubtful.
Using my logic I wouldn't pick riders like Sagan(needs 3000 to double), Sam Bennett(needs 2400 to double), Pogacar(needs 3000 to double), MVP(needs 2600 to double). I also dont think Evenepoel and Van Aert(in doubt about his injury and race schedule) will double their score, but they might, I feel like both of them have a >2000 potential this season.

I don't know if im blowing up open doors here and that this is the common strat, but earlier years I have just planned that every rider on my team needed to improve their score, but not that they needed to double it. Also the lesser valued riders that have a good season will improve their score by way more than double their cost.
Maybe a better strat is that the more expensive picks just need a 1,5 times improvement or something and the cheaper ones need to triple, quadruple and so on, I dont't know. Do you guys consider a formula like this when picking your teams?

I think I picked too many talents this year and was a bit lazy when picking them. I'm always making a short list of potential riders to add to my roster and at one point i just copied six riders next to each other on my short list and added them to the team, without much thought of why I should be choosing them. I also have a lot of guys with health problems from last season so that is also a big question mark(this is unavoidable I guess).
Anyway, here is my team:

PINOT Thibaut
BARDET Romain
YATES Simon
KWIATKOWSKI Michal
GARCIA CORTINA Ivan
MOSCON Gianni
KELDERMAN Wilco
LATOUR Pierre
DUMOULIN Tom
ANDERSEN Søren Kragh
MCNULTY Brandon
BJERG Mikkel
SAJNOK Szymon
DAINESE Alberto
ARU Fabio
OOMEN Sam
KÄMNA Lennard
HAAS Nathan
PIDCOCK Thomas
ALMEIDA Joao Pedro Gonçalves
GROVES Kaden
BAGIOLI Andrea
FROOME Chris
EEKHOFF Nils
RUBIO REYES Einer Augusto
ARDILA ORDOÑEZ Andres Camilo
VICHOT Arthur
CAVENDISH Mark
COVI Alessandro
ALBA BOLIVAR Juan Diego
KANTER Max
RODRIGUEZ CANO Carlos
SIMMONS Quinn

 

[fauniera]

Two surpises so far (for me): More than one team having someone named WEEMAES Sasha. Never ever heard of that guy before. Maybe he is the new Amaury Capiot, whom i also didn't know a few years ago (and who scored well).

And the big number of users calling Oomen obvious despite his massive health problems last year. He could be a great pick of course, but is very risky IMO.

 

[Hakkie2]

Two surpises so far (for me): More than one team having someone named WEEMAES Sasha. Never ever heard of that guy before. Maybe he is the new Amaury Capiot, whom i also didn't know a few years ago (and who scored well).

Weemaes was part of the Belgian Track project for Tokyo. But since they won't qualify for Tokyo, Weemaes has focused on the road and done more endurance training this winter.
I indeed hope he becomes a new Capiot.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Weemaes was part of the Belgian Track project for Tokyo. But since they won't qualify for Tokyo, Weemaes has focused on the road and done more endurance training this winter.
I indeed hope he becomes a new Capiot.

I considered him for that reason, but decided against it in de end. Could be one of my many mistakes. He's pretty fast, but hasn't been consistent up until now.

I see, so far, nobody has had the balls to take Sagan. I feel like I'm so gonna regret picking him.

I didn't like Sagan's schedule. Giro + Tour could be good for him (but Ackermann will race the Giro, too), but he intends to end his season after the Olympics. So the TDF could be his last CQ points scoring opportunity.

 

[Salvarani]

And the big number of users calling Oomen obvious despite his massive health problems last year. He could be a great pick of course, but is very risky IMO.

I think you are right. It might take some months of racing to get back to the level he has shown previously. But at the same time he has had a lot of time to recover already. So maybe he will get going pretty soon. I dont know how the recovery or traing has gone, but he is a talented rider with a lot potential if fully recovered. It is an if, but a risk worth taking imo.

 

[Joelsim]

I think you are right. It might take some months of racing to get back to the level he has shown previously. But at the same time he has had a lot of time to recover already. So maybe he will get going pretty soon. I dont know how the recovery or traing has gone, but he is a talented rider with a lot potential if fully recovered. It is an if, but a risk worth taking imo.

He's also in a team with no other GC riders besides Wilco. A few youngsters for sure with some potential, including Power.

 

[fauniera]

Steimle apparently had a heart operation yesterday. Don't know how serious this is, but is is unlucky timing for those who picked him.

Ferrand-Prevot muss wieder an verengter Arterie operiert werden | radsport-news.com

www.radsport-news.com

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

SIMMONS Quinn 0
I laughed at people for not picking Evenepoel last year and am not going to make the same mistake myself.

I was like "don't be that guy" ...but in the end I left Simmons out, anyway. You all have every reason to laugh if he goes full-r3tard like Evenepoel and Pogacar last season. Banking on a sub 350 pnts season though, haha.

 

[Salvarani]

I am eager to see who of my riders that might be unique or rare picks. Since those will be the most fun to follo.w and cheer on.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

My thought process starting picking my roster this year was that every rider needs to be able to double their points.
If you look at the winning scores from earlier years a score of 15000 points will be a top result.

I started picking low cost riders and suddenly was left with 4000 points and 10 riders left to pick so had to add some >400 scorers from last season.
I picked Pinot, Bardet, Yates, Kwiatkowski(ended up with the exact same riders as the 7 top picks from MADRAZOs team), but im not sure if these guys will double their score, especially Pinot to take 1700 cq is highly doubtful.
Using my logic I wouldn't pick riders like Sagan(needs 3000 to double), Sam Bennett(needs 2400 to double), Pogacar(needs 3000 to double), MVP(needs 2600 to double). I also dont think Evenepoel and Van Aert(in doubt about his injury and race schedule) will double their score, but they might, I feel like both of them have a >2000 potential this season.

I don't know if im blowing up open doors here and that this is the common strat, but earlier years I have just planned that every rider on my team needed to improve their score, but not that they needed to double it. Also the lesser valued riders that have a good season will improve their score by way more than double their cost.
Maybe a better strat is that the more expensive picks just need a 1,5 times improvement or something and the cheaper ones need to triple, quadruple and so on, I dont't know. Do you guys consider a formula like this when picking your teams?

Someone did some math on it a few years ago. Unfortunately, I don't remember who or when, but it was pretty interesting. If I remember correctly, the result of that excercise was that very expensive riders don't even need to match their score from the year before for them to be profitable. The reason is, as you yourself mention, that cheaper riders can improve their score much more percentage wise, and including a very expensive rider makes room for more cheaper ones. I wish I could remember more from that particular post, but maybe someone else can dig it up?

 

[DJ Sprtsch]

Picked two riders that I just liked to have on my team, but doubt will be very good picks...Betancur & Munyaneza. Munyaneza doesn't even have a team and is at 97 points
Didn't pick Froome, wonder what will happen in 2020 considering his injuries, and I never really cared about him or the team. Also Cavendish.
Picked Aleotti over Ravanelli, but should maybe have chosen the older guy, or maybe both.
Venchiarutti ... don't really know him, but I like to throw in some (for me) obscure riders in the mix.
Have high hopes for Elissonde & Van der Hoorn and Kämna. I liked what Martinez showed last year and think he can do a lot better, points wise.


PINOT Thibaut
BARDET Romain
KWIATKOWSKI Michal
HIRSCHI Marc
MARTINEZ POVEDA Daniel Felipe
MOHORIC Matej
BETANCUR GOMEZ Carlos Alberto
DUMOULIN Tom
ANDERSEN Søren Kragh
MCNULTY Brandon
KUSS Sepp
STEIMLE Jannik
CORT NIELSEN Magnus
ARU Fabio
OOMEN Sam
CHAMPOUSSIN Clément
KÄMNA Lennard
ALEOTTI Giovanni
VAN DER HOORN Taco
ELISSONDE Kenny
MUNYANEZA Didier
ZABEL Rick
GARRISON Ian
GARCIA SOSA Jhojan Orlando
POWER Robert
HAILU Biniam Girmay
RUBIO REYES Einer Augusto
VENCHIARUTTI Nicola
ARDILA ORDOÑEZ Andres Camilo
HÄNNINEN Jaakko
QUINN Sean
KANTER Max
DE BIE Sean

Forgot about Vichot. And Simmons!

 

[fauniera]

Someone did some math on it a few years ago. Unfortunately, I don't remember who or when, but it was pretty interesting. If I remember correctly, the result of that excercise was that very expensive riders don't even need to match their score from the year before for them to be profitable. The reason is, as you yourself mention, that cheaper riders can improve their score much more percentage wise, and including a very expensive rider makes room for more cheaper ones. I wish I could remember more from that particular post, but maybe someone else can dig it up?

Yeah, expensive riders are mainly there to provide stability and to make room for cheap riders which can improve a lot. At least that is my approach. Of course it is even better when the expensive riders also improve a lot, but that is quite rare.

 

[BlueRoads]

This is my team:

Van Aert Wout
Pinot Thibaut
Cosnefroy Benoit
Kwiatkowski Michal
Hirschi Marc
Martinez Poveda Daniel Felipe
Bennett George
Affini Edoardo
Dumoulin Tom
Steimle Jannik
Godon Dorian
Aru Fabio
Geniets Kévin
Oomen Sam
Champoussin Clément
Kämna Lennard
Battistella Samuele
Lopez Perez Juan Pedro
Pidcock Thomas
Konychev Alexander
Garrison Ian
Bagioli Andrea
Froome Chris
Ardila Ordonez Andres Camilo
Vermaerke Kevin
Cavendish Mark
De Plus Jasper
Ravasi Edward
Maitre Florian
Simmons Quinn

I based most decisions on feelings, added some obvious picks I thought I couldn't omiss for that price and then filled in until 7500... so not exactly a strategy...
But I like a lot of my riders so I can actually cheer on them. I left out one who will probably do great but I don't like him much.
Also I might regret Higuita (not sure why I left him out) and Sam Bennett (too expensive) not being on my list.

 

[Hakkie2]

Someone did some math on it a few years ago. Unfortunately, I don't remember who or when, but it was pretty interesting. If I remember correctly, the result of that excercise was that very expensive riders don't even need to match their score from the year before for them to be profitable. The reason is, as you yourself mention, that cheaper riders can improve their score much more percentage wise, and including a very expensive rider makes room for more cheaper ones. I wish I could remember more from that particular post, but maybe someone else can dig it up?

I use the formula ((X*1.2)+200)<Y where X = 2019 CQ score and Y is expected 2020 score.
So for me Simmons becomes a good pick once he scores more than 200 points.
Sagan would need to score at least 2099 points.

I believe others here use slightly different formulas.

 

[IKE]

my team most of my men where picked and i mist a lot off cheap ones i can see but since i'm spoiled by playing games where you can pick you'r riders way more easy through de fantasy site i was a bit lazy to

PINOT Thibaut
THOMAS Geraint
BARDET Romain
GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando
YATES Simon
KWIATKOWSKI Michal
HIRSCHI Marc
KELDERMAN Wilco
LATOUR Pierre
SOLER GIMENEZ Marc
DUMOULIN Tom
CAVENDISH Mark
ARU Fabio
OOMEN Sam
GROVES Kaden
ZABEL Rick
EEKHOFF Nils
MINALI Riccardo
SIMMONS Quinn
KANTER Max
MODOLO Sacha
FROOME Chris
VAN WILDER Ilan
BASSO Leonardo
BENNETT Sean

some riders are not chosen that match so i will motivate my choice for them

thomas expect him to do a lot more small tours since he want to prove he is not match less then bernal
and becausse he was 2nd in the tour he should do really smaal tours

Van wilder nice young lad picked up by sunweb and they are good at that

Basso might be the year he takes a stap foreward not a lot of sprinters at INEOS so he should get his chances

Sean Bennet also a young sprinter that might take a step foreward and has not a lot of big sprinters in his team

Eekhof should have been the U23 champion and expect him to score at least 300 all the young lads seem to come fast these days

Wilco Kelderman if he has a yaer withouth crashes he should score a lot more has a nice program

Mark Hirschi really liked him last year and for him the same a well aal the young lads get at the top really fast
so i expect him to show magic this year

Gaviria last year a lot of bad luck and has big potential so i took him hope he can show some things in the spring classics


rest of the team i obvious or not worth mentioning

 

[jsem94]

Of course I missed Simmons. But that's about it.

Sagan was on my shortlist for a long long time, but withe Yates, Pinot and Bardet and Kwiatkowski in the team, Sagan is just too expensive to fit more riders in there. He could have a monster season and double his points, but I don't think we'll get more than 2300 which is about a 50% point increase.

 

[Object]

Here is my team. I dont have time to comment on the riders right now. I will see if I can find some time later.

PINOT Thibaut 861
YATES Simon 668
PORTE Richie 651
KWIATKOWSKI Michal 645
HAGEN Carl Fredrik 461
MOSCON Gianni 424
LATOUR Pierre 352
SOLER GIMENEZ Marc 350
DUMOULIN Tom 341
MEURISSE Xandro 297
BOUHANNI Nacer 276
ANDERSEN Søren Kragh 268
KUSS Sepp 233
CORT NIELSEN Magnus 227
MCCARTHY Jay 197
ARU Fabio 194
OOMEN Sam 179
VAKOC Petr 145
VAN DER HOORN Taco 121
ALMEIDA Joao Pedro Gonçalves 112
MEINTJES Louis 107
DILLIER Silvan 101
FROOME Chris 77
POWER Robert 56
JOHANSEN Julius 38
BYRIEL IVERSEN Rasmus 31
VICHOT Arthur 28
CAVENDISH Mark 25
BOHORQUEZ SANCHEZ Hernando 10
KANTER Max 8
DE BIE Sean 5
RODRIGUEZ CANO Carlos 0
SIMMONS Quinn 0

 

[Squire]

Okay, the maths first, then I'll get to my team (and fauniera should stop messing about, too )

Someone did some math on it a few years ago. Unfortunately, I don't remember who or when, but it was pretty interesting. If I remember correctly, the result of that excercise was that very expensive riders don't even need to match their score from the year before for them to be profitable. The reason is, as you yourself mention, that cheaper riders can improve their score much more percentage wise, and including a very expensive rider makes room for more cheaper ones. I wish I could remember more from that particular post, but maybe someone else can dig it up?

Maybe you're referring to my post crunching the numbers on the Valverde strategy a few years back? The conclusion was that such an expensive rider only needs a tiny bit of profit (see my correction post a couple of posts below the main one), but it requires there being enough good cheap picks which the more balanced teams can't fit in.

I use the formula ((X*1.2)+200)<Y where X = 2019 CQ score and Y is expected 2020 score.
So for me Simmons becomes a good pick once he scores more than 200 points.
Sagan would need to score at least 2099 points.

I believe others here use slightly different formulas.

This is a good rule of thumb, which I think I have commented before as well. 200 points is roughly what a zero-pointer usually needs to get into the optimal team. And you're aiming for 15600 points, which usually wins.

BETANCUR GOMEZ Carlos Alberto

Ah, this is great! I was getting slightly worried that Bananito would end his streak of being picked by someone in the CQ game every year.