The 2020 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

[Koronin]

(Ruben Fernandez)


This one I don't see. Do you know why his year was so bad last year at Movistar? I don't, so I erred on the side of thinking he was just too inconsistent/not good and cut him from my medium-long list early. Other than being a bigger fish in a smaller pond (and also with me being trepidatious about the ability of Spanish PCT teams to really boost a rider's CQ points), I just didn't have any specific reason to pick him over, like, Andrea Bagioli who costs the same. I'd love to hear more though.

That is a great question, which I have no answer for (and part of why I didn't pick him). 2017 and 2018 he had some injuries he was dealing with, but last year I don't remember hearing about any injuries or anything else. I have no idea what happened with him.

 

[skidmark]

Alright, I've caught up in the thread so I'll try to have a go at explaining my team, will see how far I get before I have to rest my broken wrist (bad time of year for someone who's a verbose writer). Let's go by cost.

PINOT Thibaut (861 points, 60 teams) - zoomed out, before digging into the numbers, I had two competing narratives: "Thibaut Pinot is cursed and can never bring it home" and "Thibaut Pinot looked like a goddamn star at the TdF before his crash". I want to be careful about projecting results that never happened into the future, lest we all fanfic Igor Anton's 2010 Vuelta onto future races for 5 years of bad CQ decision making. But looking into it further, one narrative has decisively taken hold for me, and that's that Thibaut Pinot is a goddamn star. Let's review his recent trajectory. 2018 he has a decent start to the season in Haut Var and Catalunya, then wins Alps, podiums the Giro solidly if not spectacularly before spectacularly flaming out on the last day with frigging pneumonia that lasted for awhile. No bother, he dusts himself off in the summer, podiums Pologne, 6th at the Vuelta, 9th at Worlds (which, I may add, has a not dissimilar parcours to TWO 400-point races in 2020), rips apart the Italian 1-days, capped by winning Lombardia. Fin. That's 1696 points even without the ~300 he should have gotten for Giro GC.

2019 he's in 6 stage races before the Tour, wins 2 of them and finishes top 5 in all except Catalunya where he finishes 11th, goes to the Tour and does two things that I didn't think were possible - shows that Sky doesn't have the race under control and makes me genuinely believe that the French might have a Tour winner - before having an even worse almost-last-day exit than Giro 2018. Then, shuts down the season to recuperate with renewed focus. If he's not the best stage racer in the world, he can be on his day, and he's among the most high-performing and consistent. And when he sees a one-day that suits him, he's on it too. I'm glad to pick someone I can cheer for (don't worry, I'll have fewer words for Moscon and Froome, I promise).

YATES Simon (668, 84) - I've seen a bit of 'discounting 2018 he hasn't had a good year' on this thread, but yeah, why in the world would I discount 2018? He was a world-beater in the Giro until he wasn't, and then he came back on a completely different peak of form and was a world-beater in the Vuelta, not to mention consistent over the whole year. That doesn't seem like a fluke. He's clearly disappointed in his 2019, which suggests to me that barring catastrophic crashes that's his baseline, and if his ceiling is 2200 plus not losing the Giro with a day to go, I can't not have him.

KWIATKOWSKI Michal (645, 65) - Tried to do everything in 2019 and couldn't do anything, which is a lesson that tends to be learned for good after it happens.

MOSCON Gianni (424, 57) - yeah there'll be some hate watching this year. I guess at least when I see him do well I'll have the solace of some points.

KELDERMAN Wilco (402, 26) - I always get to a point in my team where I have half or a little over half chosen and I have to make a decision that'll determine the direction of the rest of the team. Last year it was choosing MvdP, this year it was deciding to take Kelderman and Chaves over Bardet (and presumably someone real cheap). I generally like to spread out risk and not pick a rider over 500 points unless I'm really confident he'll have a good year, so usually I default to 3-400 pointers. But I really wanted to get Bardet, I like him well enough, he's got the plucky French underdog thing going for him coming off a bad year, plus it's great to see French riders change it up by eschewing the Tour. But... I'm not sure of his ceiling. What I am sure of is that Kelderman crashes alot, but also that he's averaged 766 points over the last 6 years despite that, and he's top GC dog in a shifting Sunweb team. So I spread out the risk. I think he can get between 7-900 this year, and Chaves is slooowly gaining some of the old self back, so I ended up thinking they were the better choice.

LATOUR Pierre (352, 78) - I mean, this season has to go better than one that started with him breaking both arms, right? He regained some of his old level by the end of the season, and his 810 points from 2018 should be more the expectation.

SOLER GIMENEZ Marc (350, 74) - he's going to step into more of a leadership role, so that hissy fit in the Vuelta hopefully was demostrative of his hunger for success as top dog. Unlike Quintana and Landa, he fits as a good counterpoint in Movistar - great for targeting the one-week races, can get top 10 in support role in GTs and that shouldn't be a problem for his ego for now. Even so, I hesitated on him a bit, so I was definitely surprised when I was filling out the popularity tab and he was more popular than Froome through about 40 entries. But he's a good pick, so I guess lots of people saw that.

DUMOULIN Tom (341, everyone) - just call it a hunch. I think he's gonna have a bounceback year.

VAN POPPEL Danny (334, 22) - Surprised more people didn't take him. I've had him for like 3 different CQ games and he's always at a high level, and stepping down to PCT I see a lot of 80-point 1.1 hauls in his future. He can pick up 20-30 points in various sprints where they get a wildcard and he's a featured sprinter too, he can definitely hold his own.

CHAVES Esteban (322, 14) - it took awhile for me to come around to putting him on my team, but still... FOURTEEN teams? I'm not saying he's gonna hit his 1300 point peak from 2016, but there's gotta be like a 10% chance in my mind that he will, and a solid chance he'll be above 5-600 as he regains form. Lingering viruses are hard things, monkey wrenches in CQ games and of course the real life careers that they affect (RIP Intxausti's career). But there was enough solid baseline last year to make me think Chaves has it in him and is getting back to it.

BOUHANNI Nacer (276, 52) - what'd I put in my spreadsheet notes? Right, "got 276 points in 35 race days on a team that hated him". I mean, he's... (finger quotes) volatile (/finger quotes), sure. But he's still really fast, and hopefully away from the "I'm trying to turn around a moribund French PCT team and am going to publicly engage with my star rider with stereotypically provincial pettiness and play mind games" vibe of Cofidis, he can breathe a bit and get the oxygen he needs for those big sprints. It wasn't THAT long ago that a dropped chain possibly cost him MSR, and if I can make an argument that a rider could feasibly get 280 points from a single race at a cost of 276, I'm going to pick him even if he lost me points last year.

ANDERSEN Soren Kragh (268, 43) - seeing him in Algarve last year was like 'whoa, this guy's going to compete in everything this year'. Then illness, comeback, saddle sores at the tour, comeback, liver damage from some weird enzyme thing from a cold at Benelux... kind of everything that could go wrong did. I can't specifically forecast what races he'll do well in, but I know he's capable of a lot more, even if he 'only' gets back to 2018 level.

BALLERINI Davide (252, 22) - I hemmed and hawed for a long time.... a bit of a price tag for a rider with a relatively short track record, but proven consistency and quickness and ability to survive to some small bunch sprints... that's a pretty good baseline to think he could get back to his 2018 score (ie. double his 2019 score), but then the QuickStep booster catalyst knocks that potential through the stratosphere. No team can maximize the strengths of their riders like that team, and a classics guy's dream team (well, also specifically this rider's dream team) makes it a tantalizing fit. He's a good complement for them too, leave the fast stuff to the Bennetts and Hodegs and Jakobsens, leave the WT-level hilly stuff to the Alaphilippes and Jungels-s of the world, leave the WT-level cobbles to 8 other riders they have. This guy can clean up the rest, the Limburgs and mid-summer races and the like.

CORT Magnus (227, 38) - Less certain he's a great pick than some, but certain he'll be a good pick. He's solid, like a Ballerini with more of a track record but a worse team (although EFE is sneaky good in the classics I must say). I put him in on my third or so pass through potential riders, and couldn't find a compelling reason to drop him. I was thinking of this exercise that especially Netserk used to do, which was to pick a few riders from someone's team and compare them with comparably priced riders that weren't on the team to see what was the better choice at the end of the year. For me, I think this year's choice of 'guys I picked but might not have vs. guys I didn't pick but almost did several times' is gonna be Bardet, Geniez and Power vs. Kelderman, Ballerini and Cort. We shall see.

CANOLA Marco (205, 7) - well, usually my rarest pick is... someone I am more interested in. Or have any feeling about whatsoever. I dunno, his 2017 was totally nuts and his 2018 fairly nuts, but in both of them he did get enough points throughout all parts of the year in the small races that he showed it wasn't just a fluky win or two. His 2019 was... okay, and it included him wasting 21 days in the Giro,a level at which he's not gonna get points. Assuming Gazprom doesn't get invited to it (fingers crossed), if he uses 21 race days to better effect (ie. asian races or european .1/.HC ones) then he should be good. I didn't really get anything from him about why 2019 was rather meh (other than an instagram post saying it wasn't as good as he'd like), but doubling his points would be fine, and more would be great.

DAINESE Alberto (201, 30) - thought about this one a bit too... I haven't really seen him race, and heard both here and in interviews that he's real fast, but then the races he's won haven't been over the most impressive competition. But then, Sunweb, a team I've stayed away from like it was Cofidis or Dimension Data, is undergoing a bit of a sea change back to what it was when it first became ProTour - a sprinter focused place where youth could actually have some chances. So I think he could be a good fit.

ARU Fabio (194, 83) - I still believe he's got the basis for generational talent that he showed in U23 and his first 3 years pro, so he's worth a shot for another year. At least at this price.

Okay I'm about halfway through, gonna stop for today. More thoughts later. And racing coming up!

 

[Kazistuta]

Well, that's a new one!

I usually score high on the popularity rankings, but this year I only have 14 out of the 20 most picked, and quite a lot of rare-ish picks, including my first unique pick ever. Some might fear it's a bad sign, but I hope for the best.
Despite missing the Evenepoel-train last year I decided to forego Quinn Simmons, Also left the two French GC guys out early in my picking process. Now for it:

Fernando Gaviria Rendon (23 picks): In the end I suddenly had enough room to one more half-expensive rider with potential, and we all know how much potential Gaviria has. Now if he only could stay upright! Let’s start in Argentine and take it in Via Roma, then take it from there. Expectations: 1200 points

Simon Yates (84): What happened last year? This is a great cycling year for Simon, with plenty of big race opportunities. He should top 1000 points easily. Expectations: 1500 points

Dan Martin (4): Another GC guy with potential to score in the Olympic road race. Will be getting full support on his new team. I like his panache, but he might be turning a corner soon. The majority in here seems to think the decline has already started, based on the picks. Expectations: 1000 points

Michal Kwiatkowski (65): Overtrained last year? Kwiato is returning to his old training schedule, which should do wonders for this versatile World class rider with chances in the Olympic race as well. Expectations: 1200 points

Michael Valgren Andersen (10): Sadly he pumped his value in the Autumn and WC, but I still had to pick him after his complete spring season was ruined by illness. Not the typical winner, but a massive engine and a nose for decisive moments - and a fellow Dane. Expectations: 800 points

Gianni Moscon (57): “Il trattore” is back, I hope. Moscon is extremely talented, and if he can keep his cool, he’s easily 1000 points potential. Expectations: 1200 points

Wilco Kelderman (26): If this guy would just stay upright, his points total the last several years would’ve been higher. I’m choosing this year as Wilcos injury-free year, so buckle up and get on the wagon! Expectations: 1000 points

Pierre Latour (78): The guy is a warrior, and this year he gets to race the Tour as captain. Should score decently all year long. Expectations: 700 points

Marc Soler Gimenez (74): Even with Mas coming aboard, the departure of Landa and Quintana leaves a captain spot open at Movistar. That should be Solers for the taking, here’s hoping he makes the most of it: Expectations: 700 points

Tom Dumoulin (109): Will Dumo experience the “too many chefs?” syndrome? I don’t think so, and his 2019 points will easily be tripled. Expectations: 1500 points

Søren Kragh Andersen (43): Sickness and injuries held my countryman back last year. He is rock solid, and Sunweb is a great fit for him. Expectations: 800 points

Brandon McNulty (30): This guy is a true GC talent! Call me McGuilty of fanboyism Expectations: 600 points

Alberto Dainese (30): I’m really looking forward to seeing this young man. Part of the young sprinter portion of my CQ team, but likely the one with the highest BOOM potential. Expectations: 500 points

Fabio Aru (83): Seems to think he´s over his strange disorder, but actually I’m a little torn about this pick. He was extremely gifted, and if (and that’s a rather big if, like with Froome) he should return to fame, I want in! Expectations: 600 points

Sam Oomen (87): Injured for big parts of 2019, showed in 2018 great perseverance and talent. Expectations: 800 points

Matteo Moschetti (24): This unlucky Italian showed enough promise last year to keep him on my team for another year. The top speed is there, let’s hope it translates to something. Expectations: 500 points

Lennard Kämna (46): Back from a personal thinking break, Kämna showed real potential and racing spirit last year. This is a guy I will love to root for this season. Expectations: 500 points

Taco Van Der Hoorn (10): A late addition to my team to smear some cobblestone-sprinkle on it. He will likely get to support Van Aert in most races, but I’m curious to see if his hard work ethics pay off personally as well. Expectations: 300 points

Louis Meintjes (21): Oh, did I have to pick this guy again? I can’t help thinking he was overrated, and he rides for the most underwhelming team in pro cycling, but he should be able to triple his score without doing much other than doing the “Diesel Louis”. Expectations: 400 points

Kaden Groves (20): Another promising young sprinter, and on top of that in a perfect environment. He will make a splash this year. Expectations: 500 points

Silvan Dillier (39): Was he injured last year? Really haven’t read much about why Dillier performed so badly last season, since Ag2r should fit him very well. But I like the guy. Expectations: 400 points

Alexander Edmondson (4): With Trentin gone, he should get plenty of chances. Hoping for a little breakthrough in the spring classics, but my hoping for an early points start in Australia seems to be disappointed. Why he only was picked four times is beyond me. Expectations: 300 points

Chris Froome (93): Sad to hear the news from the INEOS training camp, but not enough to refrain me from picking the best GC rider of the last decade. Maybe he will only return at the Vuelta, but if he ever gets back to his own self, that should be enough to warrant this pick. Expectations: 500 points

Dmitry Strakhov (19): Going back to Pro Conti level at Gazprom should do him good. A lot of odd races where the talent isn’t that great. Let’s call it “Marko Kump at Adria Mobil”-look-alike. Expectations: 400 points

Riccardo Minali (23): Minali should get plenty of opportunities in easy obscure Asian races, where Nippo lines up. I’m thinking Guardini all over. Expectations: 500 points

Gino Mäder (32): Warning sign no. 1: He’s riding for NTT (Well, now not as big, if Riis steps up). Mäder didn’t make the same splash as his mate Hirschi did last season, but he’s just as talented and just waited for the second season. If not, he will switch teams after this season, and I’ll pick him for the CQ game 2021.
Expectations: 400 points

Gerben Thijssen (1): My first unique pick in the main CQ game, yeah! The last Lotto-Soudal try on a young sprinter was Enzo Wouters, which didn’t go well, neither for them or my CQ teams. I’m trying again, as Thijssen seems more versatile. Totally forgot about Degenkolb arriving, but this guy is fast and may surprise many. Expectations: 300 points

Andres Camilo Ardila Ordoñez (57): Just based on his Baby-giro showings I know that he’s another young Colombian who knows how to climb mountains fast, and we all know how some of his predecessors went. Expectations: 200 points

Jaakko Hänninen (23): Actually I think it’s a year to early for Jaakko, but in the end he fitted the point deficit, and I’d much rather root for this young man than fx Modolo. Expectations: 200 points

Mark Cavendish (70): Just like with Froome, this is a case of hoping “He can’t finish his career like this”. Don’t know what to expect, but his six-day race performances made me think there’s still something left in the tank for the Marxman. Expectations: 500 points

Vincenzo Albanese (2): This is a pick based on 2018 performances only, because Alba didn’t exactly light it up last year. Don’t think Bardiani is the right team for him (or anyone else basically) to evolve at, but a year as pro should have done wonders for him. Expectations: 200 points

Max Kanter (63): Injuries and illness stood in the way of Kanter making a name in 2019. His sprinting potential is there, and even though he’s now competing with Dainese, he should be getting plenty chances for himself. Expectations: 300 points

Sean De Bie (68): A brutal injury last year, but he got back before the end of the season and showed enough to make this a no-brainer. He switched team to Pro Conti and should yet again thrive. Expectations: 400 points

 

[hfgon1]

Lennard Kämna (46): Back from a personal thinking break, Kämna showed real potential and racing spirit last year. This is a guy I will love to root for this season. Expectations: 500 points

I counted all your expectations and you expect 20.000 points. That's hopeful and optimistic but I wish you good luck.

I'm a bit surprised that so much people chose Kämna. I'm german so I I follow him since a few years and I also have him on my team. But I'm not really that confident he can score more than 400 points. He rode a very well TdSuisse and an impressive Tour de France but where will he score his points? He is not riding much one-day-races, he says about himself that he starts slowly in a season and he will be mostfully a helper for Majka and especially Buchmann. Maybe he can end top 10 at TdSuisse but I don't see him score that much points some users might think here.

KRON Andreas Lorentz 160 (actually don't know why I picked him. Same team, can be a bit better but don't see much upside this year. Would have been more interesting 1 or 2 years later)
ZUKOWSKY Nickolas 143 (same team but up to PCT-level. Very impressive results last year. Don't know him really but hope he has some to give. Think I am the only one who picked him )

My expectation was right, no one else picked Zukowsky. Really curious how he will perform all season. And Kron, well, seems like no one else knows why I picked him. It's my 2nd unique pick

 

[Karaev1]

After I checked the spreadsheet I realised I only had 32 riders. If I would've knew that Simmons would be part of my team. Just letting you know that if the difference between me and the 1st place will be smaller that Simmons points I will consider myself the true winner...

 

[fauniera]

Hmm, so many with BALLERINI Davide. He is talented for sure, but i had simply assumed that he would spend most of the year in a lead out train for Bennett/Jakobsen/Hodeg (plus helper duties on cobbles), which is not a good way to score points. But maybe that's not the plan at all and i should have spent time on researching this instead of watching a four hour video explaining Twin Peaks.

Also i may come to regret not picking VAN POPPEL Danny but i care so very little for the myriad of sprinter races in the northern flatlands that i couldn't bring myself to pick him (plus i have Modolo for that), so i picked a bunch of climbers as usual.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Anyway, Ardila raced this Sunday at the Feria de Manizales! where he had to abandon - not because of knee problems but because of a puncture which made it impossible to regroup in this circuit event.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1214224860068687877

View: https://twitter.com/germanleglezh/status/1214224860068687877

This is the race, right?

I was thinking I missed a breakout performance from Cristian Muñoz, who finished second behind Nairo Quintana (and was on my CQ team last year, but failed to deliver) ....but then I saw the rest of the top 5

Not saying he won't step up this year, but nothing to get worked up about at the moment.

 

[Salvarani]

Hmm, so many with BALLERINI Davide. He is talented for sure, but i had simply assumed that he would spend most of the year in a lead out train for Bennett/Jakobsen/Hodeg (plus helper duties on cobbles), which is not a good way to score points. But maybe that's not the plan at all and i should have spent time on researching this instead of watching a four hour video explaining Twin Peaks.

Last year was his first year riding some of the races on the cobbles with Astana, at WT level at least. He did okay, without making too much noise. DQS usually likes to have a lot different options in these races, and he might be one of them this year. Especially if he improves and takes a leap this year at his new team. But DSQ also have Lampaert, Stybar, Cavanga, Asgreen and Senechal. Who also would like to prove themselves with Gilbert gone. I am expecting them to step up. Then you have guys like Bennett, Philipsen and Hodeg who will sprint for it in some of the easier one-day races in Belgium/France. Alaphilippe in MSR and the Ardennes.

He is at a great team though to be succesful. I definitely see the potential with Ballerini, and maybe he can/will be there in some of the races. I dont know if he will be consistently up there in every race though or if it will be one of the other guys on the team. Or when he will have his day. So, where is the rest of the points gonna come from? Maybe from breaks in other races but that can become a bit of a lottery.

If he will be consistent was my biggest issue or what his role will be. I ended up not picking him, but I had him on at one point. I would say it could definitely be worth it though and taking the chance if you did.

 

[the asian]

Off to a good start with Turbo Durbo !

 

[Karaev1]

I am really curious about 2 of my picks and if anybody else considered them. First would be Hodeg who in my opinion can be as fast as Bennett and could get 1000 points if he go to the right races.

The second one is Riabushenko. He was only picked by 1 more participant which is a big surprise for me. He is very talented and could have his first real big season! Did any of you considered him ?

 

[laarsland]

Godspeed to those unique picks of Blythe, Phinney and Santaromita.

 

[Nathanptz]

I am really curious about 2 of my picks and if anybody else considered them. First would be Hodeg who in my opinion can be as fast as Bennett and could get 1000 points if he go to the right races.

The second one is Riabushenko. He was only picked by 1 more participant which is a big surprise for me. He is very talented and could have his first real big season! Did any of you considered him ?

Definitely considered him. Was too expensive in the end to fit in. But with only two picks that is a fun rider to have.

 

[SafeBet]

Ha, but seriously, I expect Evenepoel to move up in the ITT and GC hierarchies in particular. He was already reasonably close to Dennis at the Worlds, so he could establish himself as the world's second best TTer. GC results will follow, starting with San Juan and hopefully Catalunya. Short stage races with ITTs.

And then maybe later on show more consistency in one-day racing, as well.

I don't think expectations make sense when talking about generational (possibly historical) talents.
He could win a Monument, the Olympic TT, podium another Monument and the WCC RR and it wouldn't surprise me one bit. He could start climbing with the very best in one week stage races. Hell I wouldn't be shocked if he top5 the Giro, considering the field.
This is a rider who scored almost 1000 points as an overweight teenager, who spent the first 4-5 months of his neo-pro season trying to adjust to racing in the peloton. And he adjusted. The improvement he showed in a single season is almost unprecedented.

I'm trusting what I hear from other pros and coaches. He might be as good and as dominant as Eddie Merckx. We have always assumed there wasn't going to be another Merckx, because cycling evolved and bla bla bla. We also assumed nobody was going to average a triple doube in the NBA again after the big O. And then Westbrook came.
If he's as good as Merckx what is his ceiling? 4000/5000 points at his peak?

This is not to say he will. He might burn out or stop improving, even this year. But to me he's by far the rider with the most upside in the pro peloton.

Daniel Martinez - 526 points (9 picks)
Only 23 years old, had a good year but then got injured. Perfect rider for one-week stage races and hopefully can evolve into a 3-week rider as well. But a full season with solid racing should have him improving his score with quite a margin. Again not so many picks.

Diego Rosa - 297 points (5 picks)
Moving back to the PCT-ranks seems like the right move for him. Was stuck at Ineos as a helper but definitely has the talent to lead races. Had a good end at Guangxi and showed what he can do. He'll have a good calendar and lots of chances to lead races, therefore score a lot of points. Really surprised to see him with only 5 picks. Maybe the price scared people off.

Mark Padun - 209 points (24 picks)
Another promising rider who showed a glimpse of what he is capable last year. Now two season at WT under his belt this is the year he needs to go on and perform. Is a fast rider and can climb good as well. I have faith in him performing well in the one-week stage races and the hillclassics like San Sebastian. Also, a full season this time around, should help him as well.

I love your team and I'd like to comment on a few picks I didn't dare to make.
Dani Martinez is a very solid rider, he could step up and do very well in one week stage races. My problem with him at that price is that I don't see much upside at that price.

Diego Rosa is hands down my favorite rider in the peloton since his early Androni days. He's got excellent bike handling, smarts and can be among the best climbers on his day. He's also a very bright kid off the bike and the ultimate teammate. I would have picked him 100% if not for Guanxi last year. What's his problem then? Consistency. Even earlier in his career, when given the opportunity, he wouldn't always be on top of his game, especially in stage races. I'd be the happiest person if he starts winning consistently in 2020 but I somehow doubt it. Plus, contrary to Koronin's opinion, I do believe it's much better to keep your favorite rider out of your team.

Padun is another personal favorite. I believe he's got the engine to dominate races, be it classics or stage races. But he's missed time for two years in a row with unclear health issues. A bit too risky for my liking.

Yeah, he's a great talent who I've followed since his amazing junior years, but I don't get all hype in CQ game terms. Podium in San Seb and 5th in Benelux – that's a lot of points to get back. It's not like he keeps his points and just needs to score more. He could have a good year and not hit high-scoring results like that. Do people expect him to reach Schachmann/Fuglsang levels in hilly classics already?

I expect him to improve his recovery and start scoring points in some stage races. As previously mentioned he wasn't far from doing that early last season when he was still a young neo pro. He's also incredibly suited to both the ORR and WCRR.

VAN POPPEL Danny (334, 22) - Surprised more people didn't take him. I've had him for like 3 different CQ games and he's always at a high level, and stepping down to PCT I see a lot of 80-point 1.1 hauls in his future. He can pick up 20-30 points in various sprints where they get a wildcard and he's a featured sprinter too, he can definitely hold his own.

I knew this would be a popular pick among the most experienced players. Could be a big regret for me (not the first time also).

Fernando Gaviria Rendon (23 picks): In the end I suddenly had enough room to one more half-expensive rider with potential, and we all know how much potential Gaviria has. Now if he only could stay upright! Let’s start in Argentine and take it in Via Roma, then take it from there. Expectations: 1200 points

Brandon McNulty (30): This guy is a true GC talent! Call me McGuilty of fanboyism Expectations: 600 points

Lennard Kämna (46): Back from a personal thinking break, Kämna showed real potential and racing spirit last year. This is a guy I will love to root for this season. Expectations: 500 points

There goes another team with a ton of interesting picks.
My opinon on Gaviria hasn't changed from last year. Crashes and health issues won't magically disappear. It's too much of a headache to me, despite his obvious potential.

I'm a huge believer of McNuts, I picked him last year and ejoyed his fantastic ride in Sicilia. I'm worried about his first season in a WT team though. In an interview he said he would focus on TTs this year and try to learn from the more experienced riders. I think he's a year away.

Kamna is another rider I had last year and wanted to pick. Bora is known for developing his riders step by step though so I believe a Buchmann-like career trajectory is more likely. He will improve, but I'm not sure that will be enough to justify a pick around 150 points.

 

[Martin]

Godspeed to those unique picks of Blythe, Phinney and Santaromita.

Thank you
btw. I wonder why Santaromita had a weak last year, but more than that I wonder why is he a unique pick

 

[manafana]

He's also in a team with no other GC riders besides Wilco. A few youngsters for sure with some potential, including Power.

this is hwy i went Oomen his leadership chances are huge and another reason i liked the young guns at sunweb as they will get chances

Thoughs on Eckhoff in theory he was strongest rider at u23s worlds, he looks a solid talent and cheaper than he could have been.

 

[laarsland]

Thank you
btw. I wonder why Santaromita had a weak last year, but more than that I wonder why is he a unique pick

Like those two other mentioned he retired at the end of 2019, I’m afraid.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Meanwhile Durbridge already scored the first points for me, feels pretty good.

 

[will-10]

Thanks again to skidmark for organising.

I think this was a really interesting year with far less 1000+ picks that shaped a lot of teams in the past. I also think there's less obvious neo-pros to pick this year but stand to be corrected on that if I've missed this year's Remco or Pogacar.

Personally I found there was a ton of riders in the 200-500pt range that I wanted to include so hopefully I've got the right ones.

A lot of the more obvious picks have been discussed, my team's success or otherwise will pretty much come down to these five:

Rohan Dennis - 806pts - 3 teams
My riskiest pick, I suspected a lot would pick Bardet who I don't see a huge ceiling on at the moment so definitely a gamble to go in a different direction. Will come down to how much freedom or otherwise he finds at Ineos alongside Giro TT/Olympics TT/Worlds TT points that should be fairly nailed on.

I was gambling on him winning all his TTs this year pretty much, luckily we're off to a flyer as he got beat by Durbo again who was the 2nd last guy I took out of my team

Paddy Bevin - 425pts - 3 teams
Very surprised, given how much is on offer points-wise in the Aussie summer, to be one of only 3 with Bevin. If he starts anywhere as well as last year he's up for GC in Down Under, plus he's nailed on for an Olympic spot as a medal contender (NZ qualified two spots for RR and TT).

Wilco Kelderman - 402pts - 26pts
I actually thought Wilco would be way up there in the popularity rankings... he'll get leadership opportunities all year but needs to stay upright.

Diego Rosa - 297pts - 5 teams
A points-friendly race calendar and more freedom on a new team.

Jay McCarthy - 197pts - 8 teams
Realistically needs to break even in Australia and get more opportunities in Europe to be worthwhile. Guys like Impey have proven to be good picks by mid-Feb based on CQ heavy Aussie summers....

 

[Eyeballs Out]

I am really curious about 2 of my picks and if anybody else considered them. First would be Hodeg who in my opinion can be as fast as Bennett and could get 1000 points if he go to the right races.

The second one is Riabushenko. He was only picked by 1 more participant which is a big surprise for me. He is very talented and could have his first real big season! Did any of you considered him ?

I've had Riabushenko in my team for both his pro years (last year he was an ok pick) but didn't have him on my shortlist this year

He's quite a fast finisher and a contender on ramp/drag finishes and reduced group sprints. His next progression is to become competitive in the bigger one-day races which requires a big jump and he needs to get a lot stronger. He should continue to improve. My guess is he'll get 400-500 pts

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

I've already programmed this team into the "Popularity Team 1" tab and promise to mention them in the updates. (If someone wants to put together a "popularity team 2" replacing some of the lower popularity guys with higher popularity to bring it to 7500 I can do that too) The tracking of the popularity team is something I've dropped the ball on in recent years, and last year Armchair Cyclist sent me a PM with the pop team at the start of the season and I totally forgot to enter it and then felt bad for most of the year when I remembered (but still didn't do it). Here's my public commitment this year!

Simply replacing Rubio with Kelderman would bring the spend to a more competitive 7419, and only drop the aggregate popularity by 1.

 

[Salvarani]

Mads Pedersen only 7 picks.

Any reason people dont believe much in the guy to pick him?

 

[fuiers]

Mads Pedersen only 7 picks.

Any reason people dont believe much in the guy to pick him?

Just a gut feeling. Marked man now with the jersey. Gonna be a tough season for him.

 

[Kazistuta]

I counted all your expectations and you expect 20.000 points. That's hopeful and optimistic but I wish you good luck.

I'm a bit surprised that so much people chose Kämna. I'm german so I I follow him since a few years and I also have him on my team. But I'm not really that confident he can score more than 400 points. He rode a very well TdSuisse and an impressive Tour de France but where will he score his points? He is not riding much one-day-races, he says about himself that he starts slowly in a season and he will be mostfully a helper for Majka and especially Buchmann. Maybe he can end top 10 at TdSuisse but I don't see him score that much points some users might think here.

Yeah, but usually some of the riders have bad luck, injuries and illnesses. You can't have 33 riders all enjoying the best season ever If every rider I picked decreases his point total with 1/4, my team still finish in the 15k area, which usually is a good placing in this game. Don't expect them all to score as expected individually, but that's just like betting...

 

[hfgon1]

Mads Pedersen only 7 picks.

Any reason people dont believe much in the guy to pick him?

I thought about him but decided against because of two things. First, his points last year came from two races within one week and mainly from the worlds. If he isn't able to produce one more spectacular result like this, he has to win a lot more points on other races. He needs at least 800 points to be a good pick. Without the worlds he had not even 200. He has the potential, definetely, but I'm not sure he will make 600 points more at the other races. Especially, and that's my second point, when he is riding with the jersey and everyone will have a look at him. No one will underestimate him any more.

 

[tobydawq]

Just a gut feeling. Marked man now with the jersey. Gonna be a tough season for him.

Well, the last 4 years, the rainbow jersey has secured more than 2200 points, so there's that

No, I agree with you. Of course he has the potential and he should enjoy a bigger status within the team, obviously, but 80 percent of his points last season came in one race, where he isn't going to score any this year.

He has the potential to be there in the classics and score a lot of points but it's not a given.

Had he not become world champion, he would have been a very obvious pick.