The 2023 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

[Squire]

The big question this year was obviously to Roglic or not to Roglic.

I actually believe picking Roglic is objectively the best strategy, but I just liked my team so much more without him. Giro, Vuelta, Italian classics and a few other races inbetween are more than enough for a normal Roglic to score 2000 points, but there aren't THAT many things that need to go wrong before he turns out to be a bad pick. And if that happens, I could have a nice advantage.

I have re-wired my decision making a bit. This year I have chosen to go for more riders on an upward trajectory instead of the bounce back types which I have favoured in the past. EvansIsTheBest's winning team, with the likes of Skjelmose, opened my eyes to the value of even quite expensive emerging riders. Picks like Plapp and Johannessen are inspired by this. Earlier I often didn't dare to go for young riders if they had already had quite a substantial breakthrough. I favoured 'proven' scorers. So in the past, instead of keeping Uijtdebroeks, Van Uden and Milan, I would probably have kept guys like Hamilton, Cattaneo and Stuyven when needing to make late cuts. Also my cheaper picks are influenced by this new thinking, having left out Schelling, Hermans, Hoelgaard, Barbier etc.

In one way, I think this new approach is a more risk-averse and safe strategy. Most of my younger riders are likely to at least somewhat improve their points, but I might be missing out on a few potential 'go big or go home' gambles like Sagan and Gaviria. If this year turns out to be a low-scoring one, I think I can win, but if it's a high-scoring one, that likely means someone like Roglic has really popped off and I'll be in trouble like I was when I lacked Evenepoel last year.

So here's my team with a few additional comments below. Until the last minute it was a 50/50 toss-up between Gaudu+Bouhanni vs Ayuso+Cattaneo. Maybe it was Bouhanni's ceiling that swayed me in the end. Any sprinter who's on the startlist of Clasica Almeria is a done deal for my CQ team! Happy to see that MADRAZO also has Bouhanni - it means I'm not totally crazy. The final change I actually made was getting Osborne in for Fisher-Black. A bit worried now considering so many have picked the Kiwi.

GAUDU David 771
PIDCOCK Thomas 599
EWAN Caleb 576
ALAPHILIPPE Julian 489
JOHANNESSEN Tobias Halland 462
PLAPP Lucas 441
ACKERMANN Pascal 414
HAIG Jack 364
BOUHANNI Nacer 353
HONORE Mikkel Frølich 320
TEUNISSEN Mike 292
ASGREEN Kasper 267
UIJTDEBROEKS Cian 253
VAN WILDER Ilan 232
SCHACHMANN Maximilian 187
ONLEY Oscar 161
MILAN Jonathan 160
VAN UDEN Casper 160
VAN EETVELT Lennert 139
PENHOËT Paul 132
MARTINEZ Lenny 121
GREGOIRE Romain 108
EARLE Nathan 95
MALUCELLI Matteo 82
MOSCON Gianni 61
PIGANZOLI Davide 61
CARSTENSEN Lucas 56
SALBY Alexander 53
OSBORNE Jason 47
LECERF William Junior 17
WALLS Matthew 10
BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley 5
DEKKER David 3

I have never before had so many riders in and out of my team during the process, so I'm not gonna mention all the guys I was close to picking but left out. There are a lot of guys I wanted to fit in but couldn't, and I see many of them are picked by quite a few others. Just gonna say that the first iteration of my team started out with Roglic, MVDP and Ayuso all in there, so there's been quite the upheaval. And a special mention for Bagioli, who I've had for several years, but couldn't fit in this time. Always been a big believer, and will still love it if he does well, but I'm starting to believe that the inconsistency he's shown every year since he was a junior is just how he is.

As usual I'm considering point scoring opportunities to a greater extent than outright talent. The Milan pick goes a bit against this though, as Bahrain has the absolute worst calendar. Almost no one-day races outside the WT. A massive talent like Bauhaus would have doubled his points on any other team. But I'm hoping Milan is beastly enough to get points even in bigger races. He was quite cheap after all.

As an extension of the above comment, Lotto and other teams in the relegation/promotion fight are really the places to look for picks (Ewan, Van Eetvelt, Bouhanni, Dekker, Johannessen). DSM doesn't count, as they are seemingly unable to think outside of their box, but Onley and Van Uden should get many easy opportunities regardless.

Happy to see I have some rare ones, and even two (unsurpringly) unique picks!

Lecerf: There are probably better picks, but I thought he was fun to have. Will be one of the leading U23 climbers besides the Jumbo boys. And it seems like the Quick-Step devo team are doing some VERY interesting races in addition to the usual U23 stuff. Rwanda could mean some very cheap points for the young Belgian. Looking at something like Benoot's final U23 season here, or Pogacar's first one.

Salby/Malucelli: Couldn't decide between them, so I took both! Malucelli is especially interesting, as he's always had a lot of top 3s and even wins, but his teams have mostly put him in stage races, so the results haven't gotten him many points. If he can do only half of a normal Malucelli season, but get those results in sprinter-friendly one-days instead, it should translate into a nice increase.

Earle/Carstensen: Gotta have some fun! My two unique picks, it seems like. Earle is actually a legitimately great pick I think. Won everywhere he raced last year before injury stopped his season, and the Asian calendar is getting a big buff in terms of categorization of races this year. Tour of Japan, which he won convincingly, is now 2.1 which means 85 extra points. I'm afraid that the return of the now 2.Pro classified Tour of Qinghai lake and other Chinese races will suffer Covid cancellations, but there are still enough good Asian races. Expecting a peak Dyball kinda season for Earle. Carstensen is a bit more for fun and I probably should have picked someone like Bol or Schelling instead, but Carstensen has results even in Europe and has looked very strong when he has raced in Asia. And this is the first time he is on an actual Asian team, and quite an ambitious one at that. My hopes for some 2.Pro Chinese stage wins might be dashed by Covid, but Carstensen is likely to have a good calendar anyway.

And I should probably leave a few words about Gaudu, as he's kind of my weapon against the Roglices, Ayusos and VDPs. Countless times I've had my expensive picks fail massively, but I've still been carried to a good finish by my mid-range and cheap picks. So this time I wanted someone safe at the top while my cheaper ones do the heavy lifting again. Of all the riders below 1000 points, I think Gaudu and Almeida are the most likely to reach 1000.

 

[Panda Claws]

Only 2 unique picks this year (random Spanish debutants AZPARREN IRURZUN Enekoitz & LOPEZ CUESTA Joseba). Happy about that actually because last year I had 11 and that was a worrying sign (finished 79th).

For next year I have to remember to actually follow the U23 scene or at least look it up afterwards because I completely missed pretty obvious picks like:

• GREGOIRE Romain
• MARTINEZ Lenny
• HAYTER Leo

Etc.

Ah well, those kind of picks can easily not work out too. At least I did not miss Alaphilippe.

 

[Anderis]

Apart from a shift from QuickStep to EF being an unusual career move,

My team seems so basic. My least popular pick is Hessmann at 4, 2nd least popular is Tronchon at 6 and 3rd least popular is Masnada at 10.

 

[SafeBet]

So last year I ditched Evenepoel at the very last minute and picked Pidcock, Superman and Bettiol instead. This time I went the opposite way, taking Ayuso over Pidcock, Honore and some random 100 pointer.
Which means all Pidcock owners should rejoice…

ROGLIC Primoz (1240) – elite talent with a proven history of 2000+ point seasons. Will score throughout the year regardless of his schedule

AYUSO PESQUERA Juan (1004) – GT podium as a teenager, very consistent in both one day and stage races, mamba mentality. Sky’s the limit here.

PICCOLO Andrea (509) – I’ve been on his bandwagon since day one despite the gazillion setbacks he’s had to face: the pandemic in his first U23 year, physical issues, going back to a local team when Astana didn’t give him a chance to ride, Gazprom folding, months without a contract and then finally Androni taking a flier on him. The results he had at the end of 2022 without ever riding a full season with a structured team are incredible. I think he’s special.

ALAPHILIPPE Julian (489) – too much panache to pass, despite now being number 2 in the pecking order at QS.

JOHANNESSEN Tobias Halland (462) – knee problems are no joke but his coach saying he can match Carlos Rodriguez numbers bought me. Was having a monster season before going down in 2022.

STRONG Corbin (358) – bit of a fan pick. He finally had a chance to race a full year in Europe after the pandemic and the results came. Won’t lack opportunities at Israel.

TULETT Ben (316) – bit of a fan pick part II. Ineos brought him up slowly but his TT results despite the tiny frame suggest a huge engine. Will hopefully focus a bit more on one day races in 2023.

ASGREEN Kasper (267) – obvious pick.

UIJTDEBROEKS Cian (253) – incredibly solid last year as a neo-pro. I wouldn’t be surprised if he already has a 4 digit season in him.

SIMMONS Quinn (243) – I’ve had him before and it was very frustrating but for some reason I keep coming back. I feel like he’s been knocking on the door of a big result for quite some time. Biggest challenge for him is probably understanding he’s much better at hills than cobbles.

VAN WILDER Ilan (232) – potential is clear despite picking up injuries / ailments every other day.

BARONCINI Filippo (191) – terribly unlucky season to start his career among the pros but he showed flashes of brilliance when healthy. I think he’s going to be a beast.

WATSON Samuel (188) – quick rider with a knack for rough surfaces (5th in his first ever Tro-Bro-Leon?). I like the fact he scored in many different races, albeit some among the U23s. FDJ even rode for him a couple of times in Tour of Britain.

SCHACHMANN Maximilian (187) – second obvious pick for me.

PADUN Mark (176) – I know it makes no sense but couldn’t resist.

MIHKELS Madis (173) – another fast kid who was very consistent in 2022. Showed he can handle some hills in Gran Piemonte. Perfect team for his skills too.

ONLEY Oscar (161) – third neo pro, I thought this would be my biggest gamble considering he’s riding for DSM, but everybody has him... Impossible to overlook what he did from July on.

MILAN Jonathan (160) – had lost almost all hope last year, then Cro Race happened. If he just focuses a little more on road racing it’ll be a point bonanza.

MARTINEZ Lenny (121) – next ultra-mythical climber.

GREGOIRE Romain (108) – dominant as a junior, dominant as an U23, dominant as pro? There was a stretch last year when it looked like he couldn’t lose a race, then he cooled off a bit. Still, he might have the highest ceiling among all neo pros if you ask me.

BRENNER Marco (105) – it’s DSM so I feared he would stall for years before clicking, but the second part of 2022 was a lot better with a Vuelta stage top5 and a competitive TT in Pologne.

MARIT Arne (103) – many setbacks last year after an impressive first year as a pro. Perfect skillset for Intermarche.

SYRITSA Gleb (96) – can handle some hills despite being huge (for a cyclist). I’m pretty sure he’ll get opportunities no matter how the Cavendish soap opera ends up.

GLOAG Thomas (80) – he won me during the 2020 Baby Giro when he was a beast for Pidcock. Turning pro with JV + last year very good results in the Italian semi classics tell me it’s already time to pick him.

MOSCON Gianni (61) – third obvious pick.

OSBORNE Jason (47) – looks exactly like the kind of engine Alpecin can take from zero to hero in a short time.

SCHELLING Ide (46) – very versatile rider who suffered from long COVID and never found his legs in 2022. I’m confident we have yet to see the best of him.

HOELGAARD Markus (44) – I’m not entirely sure he was unlucky or it was just standard Trek regression, but he’s worth a pick at that price.

FISHER-BLACK Finn (37) – super talent who lost almost the entire season last year. He’s young enough to recover at 100% from such a severe injury.

HERMANS Ben (20) – took him over Romo despite the Spaniard’s higher upside. He can be a solid contributor if he’s not completely washed up.

BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley (5) – fourth obvious pick.

VADER Milan (5) – was looking very good at the beginning of last year before his terrible accident.

DEKKER David (3) – almost 24 months since his last good result. Arkea’s calendar should be ideal for him though.


Popular riders I didn't pick: not many as always
I avoided Pidcock after having him last year. He generally doesn't sprint for minor placings and Ineos is getting crowded for one day races. But I know he can score 1500 points easily if he stays healthy and everything goes well.
I never seriously considered Leo Hayter and Joshua Tarling, a year too early for both I think.
Walls is a good sprinter, but can't see much upside.
Honore is probably the rider I wanted more and ended up not making my roster. My main worry with him is leaving QS for EF.

 

[tobydawq]

The big question this year was obviously to Roglic or not to Roglic.

I actually believe picking Roglic is objectively the best strategy, but I just liked my team so much more without him. Giro, Vuelta, Italian classics and a few other races inbetween are more than enough for a normal Roglic to score 2000 points, but there aren't THAT many things that need to go wrong before he turns out to be a bad pick. And if that happens, I could have a nice advantage.

I have re-wired my decision making a bit. This year I have chosen to go for more riders on an upward trajectory instead of the bounce back types which I have favoured in the past. EvansIsTheBest's winning team, with the likes of Skjelmose, opened my eyes to the value of even quite expensive emerging riders. Picks like Plapp and Johannessen are inspired by this. Earlier I often didn't dare to go for young riders if they had already had quite a substantial breakthrough. I favoured 'proven' scorers. So in the past, instead of keeping Uijtdebroeks, Van Uden and Milan, I would probably have kept guys like Hamilton, Cattaneo and Stuyven when needing to make late cuts. Also my cheaper picks are influenced by this new thinking, having left out Schelling, Hermans, Hoelgaard, Barbier etc.

In one way, I think this new approach is a more risk-averse and safe strategy. Most of my younger riders are likely to at least somewhat improve their points, but I might be missing out on a few potential 'go big or go home' gambles like Sagan and Gaviria. If this year turns out to be a low-scoring one, I think I can win, but if it's a high-scoring one, that likely means someone like Roglic has really popped off and I'll be in trouble like I was when I lacked Evenepoel last year.

So here's my team with a few additional comments below. Until the last minute it was a 50/50 toss-up between Gaudu+Bouhanni vs Ayuso+Cattaneo. Maybe it was Bouhanni's ceiling that swayed me in the end. Any sprinter who's on the startlist of Clasica Almeria is a done deal for my CQ team! Happy to see that MADRAZO also has Bouhanni - it means I'm not totally crazy. The final change I actually made was getting Osborne in for Fisher-Black. A bit worried now considering so many have picked the Kiwi.

GAUDU David 771
PIDCOCK Thomas 599
EWAN Caleb 576
ALAPHILIPPE Julian 489
JOHANNESSEN Tobias Halland 462
PLAPP Lucas 441
ACKERMANN Pascal 414
HAIG Jack 364
BOUHANNI Nacer 353
HONORE Mikkel Frølich 320
TEUNISSEN Mike 292
ASGREEN Kasper 267
UIJTDEBROEKS Cian 253
VAN WILDER Ilan 232
SCHACHMANN Maximilian 187
ONLEY Oscar 161
MILAN Jonathan 160
VAN UDEN Casper 160
VAN EETVELT Lennert 139
PENHOËT Paul 132
MARTINEZ Lenny 121
GREGOIRE Romain 108
EARLE Nathan 95
MALUCELLI Matteo 82
MOSCON Gianni 61
PIGANZOLI Davide 61
CARSTENSEN Lucas 56
SALBY Alexander 53
OSBORNE Jason 47
LECERF William Junior 17
WALLS Matthew 10
BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley 5
DEKKER David 3

I have never before had so many riders in and out of my team during the process, so I'm not gonna mention all the guys I was close to picking but left out. There are a lot of guys I wanted to fit in but couldn't, and I see many of them are picked by quite a few others. Just gonna say that the first iteration of my team started out with Roglic, MVDP and Ayuso all in there, so there's been quite the upheaval. And a special mention for Bagioli, who I've had for several years, but couldn't fit in this time. Always been a big believer, and will still love it if he does well, but I'm starting to believe that the inconsistency he's shown every year since he was a junior is just how he is.

As usual I'm considering point scoring opportunities to a greater extent than outright talent. The Milan pick goes a bit against this though, as Bahrain has the absolute worst calendar. Almost no one-day races outside the WT. A massive talent like Bauhaus would have doubled his points on any other team. But I'm hoping Milan is beastly enough to get points even in bigger races. He was quite cheap after all.

As an extension of the above comment, Lotto and other teams in the relegation/promotion fight are really the places to look for picks (Ewan, Van Eetvelt, Bouhanni, Dekker, Johannessen). DSM doesn't count, as they are seemingly unable to think outside of their box, but Onley and Van Uden should get many easy opportunities regardless.

Happy to see I have some rare ones, and even two (unsurpringly) unique picks!

Lecerf: There are probably better picks, but I thought he was fun to have. Will be one of the leading U23 climbers besides the Jumbo boys. And it seems like the Quick-Step devo team are doing some VERY interesting races in addition to the usual U23 stuff. Rwanda could mean some very cheap points for the young Belgian. Looking at something like Benoot's final U23 season here, or Pogacar's first one.

Salby/Malucelli: Couldn't decide between them, so I took both! Malucelli is especially interesting, as he's always had a lot of top 3s and even wins, but his teams have mostly put him in stage races, so the results haven't gotten him many points. If he can do only half of a normal Malucelli season, but get those results in sprinter-friendly one-days instead, it should translate into a nice increase.

Earle/Carstensen: Gotta have some fun! My two unique picks, it seems like. Earle is actually a legitimately great pick I think. Won everywhere he raced last year before injury stopped his season, and the Asian calendar is getting a big buff in terms of categorization of races this year. Tour of Japan, which he won convincingly, is now 2.1 which means 85 extra points. I'm afraid that the return of the now 2.Pro classified Tour of Qinghai lake and other Chinese races will suffer Covid cancellations, but there are still enough good Asian races. Expecting a peak Dyball kinda season for Earle. Carstensen is a bit more for fun and I probably should have picked someone like Bol or Schelling instead, but Carstensen has results even in Europe and has looked very strong when he has raced in Asia. And this is the first time he is on an actual Asian team, and quite an ambitious one at that. My hopes for some 2.Pro Chinese stage wins might be dashed by Covid, but Carstensen is likely to have a good calendar anyway.

And I should probably leave a few words about Gaudu, as he's kind of my weapon against the Roglices, Ayusos and VDPs. Countless times I've had my expensive picks fail massively, but I've still been carried to a good finish by my mid-range and cheap picks. So this time I wanted someone safe at the top while my cheaper ones do the heavy lifting again. Of all the riders below 1000 points, I think Gaudu and Almeida are the most likely to reach 1000.

I was surprised at how few people had picked Bouhanni. I don't think it's a crazy pick at all.

 

[Squire]

Here's my attempt at a repeat.

Again a very EITB-ish team! The token random Frenchies chucked in there again. I also did some very extensive consideration about Tesson, but in the end I look at who he beat in his sprints and decided he might not be THAT good.

I'm kinda surprised so many already revealed to have picked Piccoli. I had him last year, where I enjoyed his autumn, but I don't see him light it up yet in the spring races. It seems to me the late-season races offer more opportunities for easier points due to fatigue and injuries in the peloton, and even though he already looks like a very capable rider, him getting a 700 points season fx isn't worth a pick IMO. What are peoples expectations to him pointswise?

I agree, assuming you mean Piccolo and not the Canadian. I have had Piccolo in all sorts of Emerging riders CQ games since he graduated from juniors, so it's not like I don't believe he's good. But he got a lot of cheap points last year. Most of them from just decent placings against weak fields. He didn't win once. Massive gamble.

BARONCINI Filippo 191

Big so far unlucky talent, a obvious pick

Am I the only one who is not really convinced by Baroncini? Strong rouleur with a good TT, but his impressive U23 results came as a 21-year-old, and I don't see him being sharp enough at one specific thing to do much better than some top 10s in random one-dayers and stage races, maybe the occasional breakaway win like his U23 WC. Don't see a 500+ season here.

Otherwise, we have very similar teams again! Despite you having Roglic. Didn't think it would be possible to be that like-minded with all the options this year.

Leo Hayter (98)
Probably not my best pick.

I agree! Contrary to most other people who have mentioned him. Same vibes as with Baroncini. Strong rouleur and breakaway rider who can go well on a climb, but perhaps not that much more. U23 LBL win came from a breakaway, and his rouleur skills and robustness got him the Giro win. Other than that one madness stage where he just outlasted all the actual climbers, he was not very good on the climbs throughout the season. His brother is the far superior talent, I think.

VANDENABEELE Henri

I like this pick! Could be a pretty good one I think. I guess a lot of people have lost faith in him after his 2022 which didn't look impressive when looking at the season as a whole, but he started out quite well and was struck down by illness for most of the year. Toxoplasmosis or something, if I remember correctly? Don't think we should write off Vandenabeele yet. He was very impressive as a U23, and I think he still has it. Didn't fit in my team, though.

I have to say I am a little surprised that Uijtdebroeks is THAT popular (unless people chose him because he also has a seducingly complicated name). But I may be proven wrong of course.

Okay, so l'Avenir was pretty low level compared to some of the big U23 stage races last year, as evidenced by JSM and Hessmann finishing on the podium. Van Eetvelt crashed out (or was he ill?) and Martinez suffered from his crash. No Thompson, and Gloag also had some problems. But Uijtdebroeks apparently put up some absolutely off-the-charts numbers there. Was generally very impressive through the year, and will still do easy races this year in addition to some upgrades. But for me it's actually mostly a case of not daring to miss out, rather than really believing he'll be a must-have.

GLOAG Thomas (80) – he won me during the 2020 Baby Giro when he was a beast for Pidcock. Turning pro with JV + last year very good results in the Italian semi classics tell me it’s already time to pick him.

A bit worried that you're right!

 

[Jumbo Visma Fan :)]

I’m worried I didn’t pick Asgreen or Pidcock, but then again MVDP will beat them every chance he gets, so long it doesn’t go to a two man sprint. I think my team will at least be better than last year disaster, one can hope.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

I was hoping Enric Mas would be a unique pick, but someone else picked him too. I'm thinking he could surprise. He lost quite a few GC points due to crashes, COVID...

 

[Salvarani]

I avoided Pidcock after having him last year. He generally doesn't sprint for minor placings and Ineos is getting crowded for one day races. But I know he can score 1500 points easily if he stays healthy and everything goes well.

This was frustrating last year, when he wouldnt sprint for placings.

Apparently it was because of his knee issue. He felt the most pain when sprinting, so that explained that one a bit.

I read about it in some article, since he spent time in LA during the offseason to receive some treatment.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

The big question this year was obviously to Roglic or not to Roglic.

I actually believe picking Roglic is objectively the best strategy, but I just liked my team so much more without him. Giro, Vuelta, Italian classics and a few other races inbetween are more than enough for a normal Roglic to score 2000 points, but there aren't THAT many things that need to go wrong before he turns out to be a bad pick. And if that happens, I could have a nice advantage.

I was tempted to leave him out. But apparently his current level is better than expected. That's why I fit him in in the end.

 

[hfgon1]

Damn, as a german I missed out on Jason Osborne. Think he will easily score 300+ points this season. Such a great rider

 

[Jumbo Visma Fan :)]

I was hoping Enric Mas would be a unique pick, but someone else picked him too. I'm thinking he could surprise. He lost quite a few GC points due to crashes, COVID...

I guess great minds think alike

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Only 2 unique picks this year (random Spanish debutants AZPARREN IRURZUN Enekoitz & LOPEZ CUESTA Joseba). Happy about that actually because last year I had 11 and that was a worrying sign (finished 79th).

For next year I have to remember to actually follow the U23 scene or at least look it up afterwards because I completely missed pretty obvious picks like:

• GREGOIRE Romain
• MARTINEZ Lenny
• HAYTER Leo

Etc.

Ah well, those kind of picks can easily not work out too. At least I did not miss Alaphilippe.

Azparren won't actually be a U.P., but looks like one because someone else entered him without the maternal surname. Skidmark has been notified

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Here ya go:

1. SKJELMOSE JENSEN Mattias - 944
2. PINOT Thibaut - 639
3. SHEFFIELD Magnus - 621
4. PICCOLO Andrea - 509
5. THIJSSEN Gerben - 470
6. KRON Andreas Lorentz - 395
7. STEWART Jake - 360
8. STRONG Corbin - 358
9. TULETT Ben - 316
10. LAURANCE Axel - 301
11. VERMEERSCH Florian - 275
12. BAX Sjoerd - 253
13. UIJTDEBROEKS Cian - 253
14. VAN WILDER Ilan - 232
15. HERREGODTS Rune - 225
16. BARONCINI Filippo - 191
17. MULUBRHAN Henok - 181
18. HINDSGAUL MADSEN Jacob - 173
19. WAERENSKJOLD Søren - 168
20. WANDAHL Frederik - 131
21. MIHOLJEVIC Fran - 113
22. MARIT Arne - 103
23. SEXTON Tom - 98
24. NØRTOFT Morten Aalling - 71
25. KOLZE CHANGIZI Sebastian - 58
26. HELLEMOSE Asbjørn - 31
27. BLUME LEVY William - 25
28. QUICK Blake - 6

I haven't bothered working out what budget you had left, but you couldn't find 5 zero pointers to fill your team?

 

[search]

Earle/Carstensen: Gotta have some fun! My two unique picks, it seems like. Earle is actually a legitimately great pick I think. Won everywhere he raced last year before injury stopped his season, and the Asian calendar is getting a big buff in terms of categorization of races this year. Tour of Japan, which he won convincingly, is now 2.1 which means 85 extra points. I'm afraid that the return of the now 2.Pro classified Tour of Qinghai lake and other Chinese races will suffer Covid cancellations, but there are still enough good Asian races.

I think so too, but Earle will just carry bottles for Prades, I'm afraid .

With guys like him, Froome, Stybar, and the annual omission of most youngsters, I'll probably have one of the oldest selections of all

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

I guess great minds think alike

Haha. I see you posted your team already ...my bad. Glossed over Mas' name completely.

I do wonder how he performs vs the other 900-1200 point GC guys. Almeida could do really well. I read the talk about him, but am not convinced yet. Of course he lost a bunch of points as well, but is he as talented as Mas?

Vingegaard would have been a good pick last year. I left him out in the end. Swapped him with bad picks like Dumoulin and Pidcock and okay picks like Sosa. He would have been a unique pick...

 

[RedheadDane]

I haven't bothered working out what budget you had left, but you couldn't find 5 zero pointers to fill your team?

I didn't consider that option...

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Collective Wisdom
The most popular 32 picks (on at least 25 teams) come in at 7400, leaving a bit of budget for the last man.

Cattaneo (cost 101) and Wright (416) are the next most popular, and it would be tempting to stretch the budget that single point to include the Italian, but I guess that fair play insists that we drop one pick further down to Hoelgaard as the 33rd man.

So, in price order, the popularity team would be

ROGLIC Primoz

AYUSO PESQUERA Juan

PIDCOCK Thomas

ALAPHILIPPE Julian

ACKERMANN Pascal

SAGAN Peter

HAIG Jack

HONORE Mikkel Frølich

ASGREEN Kasper

UIJTDEBROEKS Cian

SIMMONS Quinn

VAN WILDER Ilan

SCHACHMANN Maximilian

MIHKELS Madis

ONLEY Oscar

MILAN Jonathan

MARTINEZ Lenny

GREGOIRE Romain

BRENNER Marco

NYS Thibau

HAYTER Leo

SYRITSA Gleb

GLOAG Thomas

MOSCON Gianni

SCHELLING Ide

HOELGAARD Markus

FISHER-BLACK Finn

HERMANS Ben

WALLS Matthew

BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley

DEKKER David

TARLING Joshua

HODEG CHAGUI Alvaro Jose

Maybe Skidmark could track them in the spreadsheet, as he did last year (lower top ten if I remember correctly)

 

[Panda Claws]

Oof I only have 12 of those riders

 

[armchairclimber]

My most glaring omission (aside from Roglic, who I considered too expensive) was MOSCON.
One of the main reasons for doing this game is having riders that you can cheer on all year.
Ipso facto ... or sommat.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

12 people confident enough in the Cavendish & Bol to Astana deal coming off that they have picked the Dutchman.

 

[DJ Sprtsch]

I have half of them (16).
A bit surprised I am the only one to pick Buratti and Busatto. In my not-so-points-rational view, having a young Italian pairing like that is a no brainer.

My most glaring omission (aside from Roglic, who I considered too expensive) was MOSCON.
One of the main reasons for doing this game is having riders that you can cheer on all year.
Ipso facto ... or sommat.

...which is exactly why I didn't pick him.

 

[Salvarani]

I would be very surprised if my second most expensive rider are on many teams. Maybe the third one as well.

Well, I didnt have to worry about this by the looks of it!

Unless someone entered his name wrong.

Iván García Cortina for 584 points is a unique pick and my second most expensive rider! Very happy with that. I gave my reasoning for picking him on page 9, where I posted all the riders on my team and wrote a little bit about them.

My third rider was indeed also pretty rare. Only two of us has picked Pavel Sivakov for 536 points.

Here are some other "rare" picks on my team, that might become a factor in this game, if they do well.

Andrea Piccolo - 509 points - picked 22 times
I think the upside here is he will ride a couple of stage-races as well. We have not really seen what he could do there, yet. Not too mention he will have a full season and hopefully naturally improves a little bit.

Lucas Plapp - 441 points - picked 13 times
He is already off to a good start, defending his title in the National RR. Will be interesting to follow him this year.

Wilco Kelderman - 364 points - picked 12 times
Happily surprised. Not many believing in Wilco it seems, while Jack Haig is picked 43 times for the exact same cost. Could be an interesting match-up to see who will have scored the most by the end of the season.

Andrea Bagioli - 321 points - picked 17 times
I believe he was picked about +30 times last year? So he has almost decreased 50% in the amount of times he was picked. I did not pick him last year and it looks like some might have given up on him too early. Perfect time to have him on my team. We will see.

Some might also have had the choice to pick either him or Honoré (320 points, who was picked 39 times)? Well, I have both on my team.

Giovanni Aleotti - 317 points - picked 2 times
He could become very important for my team by the looks of it and I will definitely have to keep a close eye on him whenever he races! Go Giovanni!

Ben Tulett - 316 points - picked 17 times
Ineos was the team I picked the most riders (6) from this year. Will be interesting to see if he develops further this year.

Madis Mihkels - 173 points - picked 25 points
One of those I just didnt want to miss out on, if he is great immediately.

Casper Van Uden - 160 points - picked 22 times
He has been one of the best sprinters on the U23 scene. Already done well in some pro races.

Arne Marit - 103 points - picked 14 times
I thought he would be more popular than this! Relatively cheap sprinter now stepping up to race with Intermarché.

Mattia Cattaneo - 101 points - picked 24 times
Like many other QS riders, he had a pretty bad season. Should have a decent chance to bounce back and could score GC-points in races that suits him. Good time trialist.

QS the second most represented team on my roster with 5 riders.

Aimé De Gendt - 82 points - picked 4 times
He was the last rider selected for my team. He could become a useful rider, if he has a couple of good days in some smaller one-day races.

These twelve become the riders that I will cheer a little bit extra for!

I also managed to fit in quite a few popular picks. I am only missing Roglic in the top 10 of the popularity table.

I have 21 of the riders @Armchair cyclist just posted for a collective wisdom team.

I didnt pick Roglic because of strategy and just didnt like the look of my team with him in it. I thought the 0-100 range looked like a real jungle and I played it "safe" with my picks there, where I otherwise would have had to take a gamble on a few riders I felt unsure about if I had picked Roglic.

I also made a conscience choice to not pick riders like Sagan, Kwiatkowski, Styuven, Gaviria and so on. Hasnt worked out for me in the past picking those sort of riders and didnt want to go "half and half" with it, so I opted out of picking any of them.

I quite like that some of my more "expensive" picks are rare, if they have a great season they could become game-changers.

I probably also had the opportunity to fit in a couple of riders that probably where on many managers long-list, that had to be cut because they went top-heavy. Those are the choices we make and well see what pays off in the end!

 

[MADRAZO]

Am I the only one who is not really convinced by Baroncini? Strong rouleur with a good TT, but his impressive U23 results came as a 21-year-old, and I don't see him being sharp enough at one specific thing to do much better than some top 10s in random one-dayers and stage races, maybe the occasional breakaway win like his U23 WC. Don't see a 500+ season here.

Otherwise, we have very similar teams again! Despite you having Roglic. Didn't think it would be possible to be that like-minded with all the options this year.

Yes no surprice that out teams are fairly similar once again despite the difference with the Roglic pick. For sure that was the most important decision to go with him or not, and I was also in doubt a lot, but if in the end if I had not picked him I could well have ended with your Gaudu/Johannessen combo instead, though Ayuso was likely my first option instead.

Otherwise you might be right with Baroncini. Perhaps not the biggest talent and yes he was indeed a bit old in that one great U23 year, something Im also normally scared a bit by, but on the same time so was Johannessen and like him his development there just seemed quite steep, and then he has just been so unlucky that improvement seems evenitable. And then I suppose he should be caractericed more as a fast puncher suited to one day races, just as much as a rouleur with a good TT. He actually has a lot of the same qualities as the popular Piccolo but just a lot cheaper now. Piccolo was also in my thoughts but I also landed on your conclusion that his points this year was a lot down to a well timed good form and a lot of easy points, where a full season might not help him so much, and also with the added risk of all his former breaks. But ofcourse he was a candidate also, but I just prefered someone like Ewan in that pricerange. Glad to see him and Ackermann too as a couple of bounce-back picks in your team. They really ought to make many points both of them.

For Bouhanni I had expected him to be a relatively rare pick, but Im glad to see you pick him too, and yes Arkea just seems like the best team to focus on getting many points, and the plan with him with one day races and a nice spanish start with easy points like you also mention, could make him a nice pick for us.

I also like your Malucelli and Salby picks, both were also in my list of worthy picks in the final puzzle. Picking cheap sprinters that are sure to ride for themselves a lot is never a bad idea.

Otherwise I have had a lot of the same thoughts as you about trying to go with young guys sure to improve over the older ones that can bouce back, but I had a little harder time actually doing it than you had, especially with all the bad luck some riders had, and with riders like Schelling and Hoelgaard for instance still being reasonably young I could not go agaisnt my normal style picks and skip them, and then also riders like Sagan just had so good excuses that I could not quit believing enough in them, but your Plapp pick might well be better and is for sure more exiting.

 

[Jakob747]

1000-1200 points. I think he's a star.


I really love your team building strategy by the way. I would probably have picked a Roglic or a MVDP or an Ayuso (that's more your type of pick than the other two) rather than the Vine/Wright/Conci trio and I'm a bit surprised to not see Asgreen on your team but that's really my only nitpicks. Nice to see Tronchon on there too, loved his stage win in Burgos last year and he was on multiple drafts but he was part of the last few rounds of cuts to get under budget. I considered Strong and Waerenskjold for a while too, they are some fun high upside picks.

I have a lot of faith in Fred Wright - the dude is strong as an ox and rides the races from the front, I believe he is in for a very good year. I also considered giving his childhood friend from Herne Hill and current roomie Ethan Hayter another crack but opted out in the end. I wanted guys who animate things and Ethan in 2022 rode more at the back than anything, so regardless of his insane skill set, his 2022 positioning in the bunch was just a huge turn-off for me.

I get why Nicola Conci is a unique pick, I really do. He is a big gamble, but ever since his operation in late 2021 for his iliac artery problems which have bothered him for years, he seemed reborn as a rider last season. I think he will have carte blanche to ride offensively within this Alpecin set-up and could come up with good results on the hilly/Ardennes terrain. The way he rode Hirschi straight off his wheel (before Hirschi came back on the downhill) in Vento Classic impressed me. He is not a mega-star and maybe won't set the world on fire, but I do think there is a good chance he can turn out profitable if he remains injury free all year.