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The 2023 CQ Ranking Manager Thread
Page 11 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.
Giovanni Aleotti - 317 points - picked 2 times
He could become very important for my team by the looks of it and I will definitely have to keep a close eye on him whenever he races! Go Giovanni!
Last year I also picked him over Higuita as one of my last picks, which I deeply regretted... so this year I am without him. But I wish you luck with him..
So my team:
In general I have 19 riders out of the popularity team, which looks good!
I thought a lot and in the end I decided against Roglic and for Carlos Rodriguez. Ayuso was always logged in for me. I think he will score at least 2000 points this season.
Read news, that Roglic will start his season slow, because he started the preparation late this winter, so I thought that before the giro, he might not score that much and then Evenepoel just has to be better than him and a lot of breaks have to take the stages, which could mean that he will be with not more than 500 points after the giro.
Rodriguez isn´t that popular this season here, but I think he is a bit underestimated. I think he will score a lot, at least I hope that!
I will also follow Johannsessen´s season very closely. Hope that Uno-X will get a lot of good invitations, where he can score for me. Tullett also came in last minute to my team. Hope that this year will be his breakthrough season.
With Herzog, Brenner and Steinhauser I also have three german young rider fan picks in my team. Herzog will ride for a Conti team, so will not earn a lot of points, but I just want to have another reason to follow him closely this season. From the other two I would expect at least more points then last season.
He scored 353 points last season, not having many race days.
I dont think it is a "crazy" pick but he hasnt showed much in the past few seasons that he is about to have another +600 points season, which he would need to score to make him a good pick. Not impossible at all though in a full season and if he stays on his bike, but he will be 33 later this season and has had some problems every now & then.
Collective Wisdom
The most popular 32 picks (on at least 25 teams) come in at 7400, leaving a bit of budget for the last man.
Cattaneo (cost 101) and Wright (416) are the next most popular, and it would be tempting to stretch the budget that single point to include the Italian, but I guess that fair play insists that we drop one pick further down to Hoelgaard as the 33rd man.
So, in price order, the popularity team would be
ROGLIC Primoz
AYUSO PESQUERA Juan
PIDCOCK Thomas
ALAPHILIPPE Julian
ACKERMANN Pascal
SAGAN Peter
HAIG Jack
HONORE Mikkel Frølich
ASGREEN Kasper
UIJTDEBROEKS Cian
SIMMONS Quinn
VAN WILDER Ilan
SCHACHMANN Maximilian
MIHKELS Madis
ONLEY Oscar
MILAN Jonathan
MARTINEZ Lenny
GREGOIRE Romain
BRENNER Marco
NYS Thibau
HAYTER Leo
SYRITSA Gleb
GLOAG Thomas
MOSCON Gianni
SCHELLING Ide
HOELGAARD Markus
FISHER-BLACK Finn
HERMANS Ben
WALLS Matthew
BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley
DEKKER David
TARLING Joshua
HODEG CHAGUI Alvaro Jose
Maybe Skidmark could track them in the spreadsheet, as he did last year (lower top ten if I remember correctly)
Yes after finally remembering to track this team (I think they finished 9th), I am eager to do so again this year.
Of course, I could also just track my team, as I have 23 of these (and Haig and Honore were in my first draft team until I realized it'd be too expensive if I didn't drop some points)
Last year I also picked him over Higuita as one of my last picks, which I deeply regretted... so this year I am without him. But I wish you luck with him..
He is one of the riders I managed to fit in, while others maybe overlooked him or probably just went with either Bagioli or Honoré who both were just a few points more expensive. I managed to fit in all three of them.
I think he has good potential in shorter stage-races and to fight for placings in hillier one-day races. He is on a good team and has had a couple of seasons now as a pro, so could be ready to take a step forward. He has shown he can win races and done well against some great riders here & there. Just not had the consistency yet.
Here are some (expensive) cyclists that I am surprised nobody gave a shot:
Tim Wellens: He is priced at 586 points and just switched from Lotto to UAE. He has pretty much always broken 500 points since 2014 and peaked at 1567 points.
Tiesj Benoot: Priced at 543 points he seems like a relatively safe bet to break even.Granted he seems unlikely to truly hit it big.
Filippo Zana: A price-tag of 515 points for a largely unknown quantity is steep but with a young Italian national champion you would expect there to be at least a few true believers.
Bob Jungels: Similar to Stuyven in my opinion. Expensive at 449 points but the talent is there.
Primoz Roglic (1240)
I don't know if he has the best calendar in order to maximise points but if he manages to find his normal level, he is an obvious pick (the first +1000 point obvious pick in my time in this game). I know he has been unlucky the last few years but that will not deter me from picking a rider. I hope he can find his form quickly after his operation and that the Giro will not be his season opener (or that Catalunya will not be his only race before the Giro for that matter). Vingegaard and Van Aert will not do the Ardennes, so surely Jumbo-Visma will end up thinking it's a good idea to send Roglic there, right? Anyway, second in Giro and first in Vuelta look very realistic and that's not going to be his only points in the season.
Unpopular opinion here but I don't even rate Roglic as the best 1000+ rider this year. I also have Evenepoel last year as a much better option than any 1000+ guy this time around (talking at the time of making the pick, obviously with hindsight we know how unlikely it is that anyone this year will equal 2022 Evenpoel). Roglic definitely is one of the better option at that price in recent years though.
Forgot to post my own team... I reached a point where I had to decide whether to go with 2 super expensive riders or spread the risk out as there were lots of decent options in the 400-600 range, and I decided to go big. Can't wait to have a bit of time to talk through the picks in the coming days
I have re-wired my decision making a bit. This year I have chosen to go for more riders on an upward trajectory instead of the bounce back types which I have favoured in the past. EvansIsTheBest's winning team, with the likes of Skjelmose, opened my eyes to the value of even quite expensive emerging riders. Picks like Plapp and Johannessen are inspired by this.
So here's my team with a few additional comments below. Until the last minute it was a 50/50 toss-up between Gaudu+Bouhanni vs Ayuso+Cattaneo. Maybe it was Bouhanni's ceiling that swayed me in the end. Any sprinter who's on the startlist of Clasica Almeria is a done deal for my CQ team! Happy to see that MADRAZO also has Bouhanni - it means I'm not totally crazy. The final change I actually made was getting Osborne in for Fisher-Black. A bit worried now considering so many have picked the Kiwi.
And a special mention for Bagioli, who I've had for several years, but couldn't fit in this time. Always been a big believer, and will still love it if he does well, but I'm starting to believe that the inconsistency he's shown every year since he was a junior is just how he is.
And I should probably leave a few words about Gaudu, as he's kind of my weapon against the Roglices, Ayusos and VDPs. Countless times I've had my expensive picks fail massively, but I've still been carried to a good finish by my mid-range and cheap picks. So this time I wanted someone safe at the top while my cheaper ones do the heavy lifting again. Of all the riders below 1000 points, I think Gaudu and Almeida are the most likely to reach 1000.
Plapp is going to come back and haunt me for the second straight season for sure. I tried to include him but ran out of points (after Ayuso + Roglic + Pidcock + Alaphilippe + Piccolo + Johannessen there just wasn't that many points available). I feel the exact same way about Bagioli.
Honestly I felt like this was the most underwhelming crop of 600-1000 points riders I can recall but Gaudu was really the only one that stood out for me. One of these days he'll put together a season where he's good both in the classics and the GTs and he'll put up a big number. That Tour de France route isn't going to hurt either. But I'm very high on Ayuso so I would have taken the other combo. Considering the lack of alternatives in that range I'm surprised Gaudu wasn't picked more.
Concerning Fisher-Black, obviously not a risky gamble at that price but I'm surprised at the amount of support he has had. Beyond the concern from coming back after such a long layoff I'm not sure I've heard a compelling explanation as to why he didn't show anything prior to his crash. It would be one thing if he crashed out in February but his year ended in late May and that's a fairly decent chunk of the season where he did nothing.
Again a very EITB-ish team! The token random Frenchies chucked in there again. I also did some very extensive consideration about Tesson, but in the end I look at who he beat in his sprints and decided he might not be THAT good.
After the December 31st update pushed my team over budget (due to Van Eetvelt picking some extra points), I had to make some changes. I panicked and picked Axel Mariault (before settling on a more reasonable Syritsa), now THAT's a token french guy thrown in there for no reason at all. I have 8 this year but I'm quite confident in all of them. I get what you are saying about Tesson but it's really hard to be as consistent as he was despite very little help from his own team. TotalEnergies squeezed more than 1k out of Van Gestel and Dujardin last year. Tesson isn't a world beater but surely he can at least get to about 500 points like those guys did.
I have a lot of faith in Fred Wright - the dude is strong as an ox and rides the races from the front, I believe he is in for a very good year. I also considered giving his childhood friend from Herne Hill and current roomie Ethan Hayter another crack but opted out in the end. I wanted guys who animate things and Ethan in 2022 rode more at the back than anything, so regardless of his insane skill set, his 2022 positioning in the bunch was just a huge turn-off for me.
I get why Nicola Conci is a unique pick, I really do. He is a big gamble, but ever since his operation in late 2021 for his iliac artery problems which have bothered him for years, he seemed reborn as a rider last season. I think he will have carte blanche to ride offensively within this Alpecin set-up and could come up with good results on the hilly/Ardennes terrain. The way he rode Hirschi straight off his wheel (before Hirschi came back on the downhill) in Vento Classic impressed me. He is not a mega-star and maybe won't set the world on fire, but I do think there is a good chance he can turn out profitable if he remains injury free all year.
I'll all for picking a team that you want to root for so I'll never fault someone for going heart over head. I was more speaking from the point of view that you need all three of Vine/Conci/Wright to really hit their ceiling to outscore Roglic presumably and I don't know how likely that is. I wasn't really questioning those picks individually, I think they are all vey reasonable when taken on their own merit.
ROGLIC Primoz 1240
VAN DER POEL Mathieu 1230
PIDCOCK Thomas 599
VANSEVENANT Mauri 514
ALAPHILIPPE Julian 489
STUYVEN Jasper 444
ACKERMANN Pascal 414
LAMPAERT Yves 397
TURNER Benjamin 372
VERMEERSCH Florian 275
ASGREEN Kasper 267
GENIETS Kévin 218
SCHACHMANN Maximilian 187
STYBAR Zdenek 136
BRENNER Marco 105
NYS Thibau 102
CATTANEO Mattia 101
IZAGIRRE INSAUSTI Gorka 95
MOSCHETTI Matteo 89
MOSCON Gianni 61
SAJNOK Szymon 46
GAUTHERAT Pierre 29
PEDERSEN Casper Phillip 24
ABREHA Negasi Haylu 20
VACEK Karel 18
RICKAERT Jonas 10
SVRCEK Martin 10
BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley 5
DEKKER David 3
HOFSTEDE Lennard 0
LEONARD Michael 0
TARLING Joshua 0
HODEG CHAGUI Alvaro Jose 0
as I did my team in a 90 minute rush on Wednesday evening, I thought I would have missed a lot of the popular riders but that is not too bad. the 3 most popular I missed are all kids; I should have picked Uijtdebroeks after what he did last year whilst I saw both Gregoire and Martinez during my speedy analysis but did not know anything about them...
I think 4 0-pointers is the most I have had and none of them are that rare which I think is a positive. Hofstede was a very late addition as when I was having a look at my team yesterday I realised I only had 32 riders!
Lots of repeat picks in my team, I had all of Pidcock, Vansevenant, Vermeersch, Vacek and Izagirre last year whilst I have preivously had Rickaert, Sajnok. Bernal and (I think) Alaphilippe in other years.
I am hoping my unique combination (I assume) of Vansevenant and Vermeersch can be the 2023 equivalent of my unique 2022 combination of Kristoff and Pedersen who I had both also picked in 2021.
Geniets and Abreha are my unique picks. The latter being one of a very unlikely 3 riders from this new Q36.5 team.
. I really thought Vermeersch was the real deal after his Roubaix performance in 2021 but he didn't really back it up last year. To be fair he was often used as a domestique for De Lie which doesn't help him scoring wise. Not sure how to explain his fairly anonymous campaign on the cobbles however.
Have had Vermeersch for the last two seasons and really wanted to include him again, but couldn't fit him in at that price. He seemed a little bit accident prone last Spring, and also had some bad luck with punctures in a couple of races. Then mostly ended up domming for De Lie. He's definitely got the engine to have a great season at some stage.
Before going into details about my selections, I just want to clear up eventual confusion about the omission of certain riders. I didn’t want to pick too many guys from my 2022 team again. Most did too well to get picked anyway. To a lesser extent I shied away from guys I had pick in even older editions of the game too. I want more diversity this year and after a near perfect 2022 edition, I’m ok if my team leans a little more on the fun than optimized side. So there’s only two guys coming back and it should be fairly obvious why they are there (it's Cian and Juan and they are here because their names rhyme obviously).
I think it’s a perfectly valid strategy to build around Pogacar (or Evenepoel) who can absorb a huge volume of points while breaking even/returning a small profit and fill the rest of the roster with cheap guys that are more likely to drastically improve their price. I think it does lower the team’s ceiling however and I don’t have the courage to impement that strategy anyway. Nobody agreed with me on that apparently since nobody picked them and if I had know that I would have entered a very different team.
I’ve settled on building my team around two 1000+ points riders instead. In that price range, I feel like there were only three guys that satisfied my two main conditions for the price range : 2k+ upside and limited downside (they should get back to their price even if they have an underwhelming season). You can survive an expensive pick or two not turning a big profit but if they finish like -400 points on the year it’s a killer. From those three, I’ve selected ROGLIC Primoz and AYUSO PESQUERA Juan and omitted VAN DER POEL Mathieu. Roglic averaged 3000+ points for the three years before 2022. He’s older and might need a bit more time than usual to get going but the upside is obviously there and it’s hard to see how he could do worse in 2023. Projecting 2k+ points for Ayuso might sound agressive this early in his career but I don’t think it’s wise to put limits on a guy that finished on the podium of a GT despite having Covid as a teenager. I think he’s not quite as talented as Pogacar but that’s his only comp in terms of stage racing talent in recent years. Pogacar cleared 2k in his second (covid shortened at that) pro season and if Ayuso can approach that he’ll be a really good pick. Including Van der Poel would have meant sacrificing too many of the mid range priced riders on my team. While he has the talent to clear 2000 points, he also has four full seasons on the road where he’s always ended up between 1200 and 1500 points. I see no compelling reason that would change now so it’s harder to talk myself into his upside. That’s why he’s out compared to the other two despite his very solid baseline. Now watch him have a Van Aert like season and make me look foolish.
I completely eschewed the 600-1000 points range this year because I felt that was the weakest crop we've had in that range that I can recall. I would only bet on Gaudu from that list to turn a decent profit (I guess picking Almeida is fine too). I also wanted to keep a few points because I really liked a lot of riders in the next group.
In the 400-600 range, I picked 4 riders. PIDCOCK Thomas and ALAPHILIPPE Julian should be fairly self explanatory. I’m extremly high on PICCOLO Andrea in terms of his CQ scoring potential. I feel the same way about him as I did Girmay last season, in that I’m pretty sure he’ll clear 1000 points. I think he is that good. JOHANNESSEN Tobias Halland was consistenly good before getting basically shut down in June. With an extra year of development and a full season he shoud return a decent profit. I wouldn’t be shocked if he approaches a four digit score.
ASGREEN Kasper, SCHACHMANN Maximilian, BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley are all much better than what they showed last year. HERMANS Ben is getting to the point where he might fall off the cliff at any time but he’s also coming off (2020 aside) 6 straight years of 500+points. At a cost of 20 points that’s outstanding value even if he slips a little from his peak. I don’t really care for MOSCON Gianni or his antics but he can’t possibly be any worse than he was last year. So they are all in as well.
GLOAG Thomas is the closest thing to 2022 Zingle this year, the only issue being that he might not get too many opportunities on that stacked roster. Jumbo does seem to give everybody an opportunity at some point in the season though. Every year I try to include one obscure young rider that I expect to be very rarely picked so I can really root for him (and also pretend like I know what I’m doing when he does well). The 2023 selection is ARRIETA LIZARRAGA Igor. This isn’t just a fun pick though. I expect him to become Kern’s leader and he should get plenty of opportunities in Spanish one week races. I’m hyped.
After missing out on De Lie last season I wanted to pick a number of young sprinters that might breakthrough this year. LAURANCE Axel finsihed the year strongly including a very impressive ride in Plouay. I picked him at a time when he was supposed to be B&B’s number one sprinter. The team folding and him leaving for Alpecin’s development team aren’t ideal but I still believe in his talent. PAGE Hugo had a consistent if under the radar first year. At just 21 and with Kristoff gone he seems poised for a much bigger year. TESSON Jason has stacked result after result despite no help from his team the last two years. Now he goes to a Total Energies team that managed to make Dujardin and Van Gestel look like good sprinters ? Sounds like a recipe for success to me. PENHOËT Paul is a neo pro but he should slide right in as Groupama’s number two behind Demare and should get plenty of opportunities in smaller one day races in France as a result. VAN UDEN Casper is young, fast and getting his first full year at the top level so he at least fits the mold. MIHKELS Madis’ price is a bit inflated because he scored a lot against a very weak field in the Tour of Estonia. Some of his performances were overshadowed by the ridiculous stuff that Sheffield and Ayuso did, but make no mistake, a teenager having the season he just had is destined for a very successful career. SYRITSA Gleb did very well in Langkawi against admittedly a fairly mediocre field. For that price it’s worth gambling on him repeating his performance against stronger opposition.
Of course there are other young riders worthy of inclusion. The other returnee from 2022, UIJTDEBROEKS Cian is just scratching the surface and he should comfortably improve his score. VAN EETVELT Lennert has a very impressive string of placings at the U23 level. Considering the current limitations of Lotto’s roster, he sould get every opportunity to shine in hilly races. They are also not shy about throwing their entire team behind a neo pro (see De Lie last year). VACEK Mathias was good when he raced last year. Certainly a lot better than his price might indicate, he just didn’t get to race a whole lot because of the Gazprom situation. I’m betting a complete year for Trek will give him a lot more opportunites to shine. MARTINEZ Lenny, GREGOIRE Romain and NYS Thibau showed some interesting flashes last year, all they need is a full racing calendar to really stack some points and they’ll get that this season. POOLE Max is young and had a nice ride in the Tour of Norway so hopefully he can build off that. VERCHER Mattéo had a nice result in the fall, he’s cheap and rides for a team light on hilly classic specialists (and those they do have are old and might fall off a cliff at any point).
Are CONTI Valerio and HALVORSEN Kristoffer low ceiling, boring picks ? Yes. Do they consistently score 100+ points which is multiple of their current score and should therefore provide some good value ? Yes. By that point, I had only 25 points left so ROMO OLIVER Javier, DEKKER David and TARLING Joshua are the lucky winners to fill out the roster.
ANTUNES Amaro Manuel Reposo
CATTANEO Mattia
EEKHOFF Nils
FISHER-BLACK Finn
GAUDU David
GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando
HODEG CHAGUI Alvaro Jose
HONORE Mikkel Frølich
MARIAULT Axel
MORGADO Antonio
PLAPP Lucas
ROMEO ABAD Ivan
SCHELLING Ide
SVRCEK Martin
TRONCHON Bastien
TURNER Benjamin
VAN DER POEL Mathieu
WANDAHL Frederik
STRONG Corbin
WAERENSKJOLD Søren
BITTNER Pavel
MIHOLJEVIC Fran
BAGIOLI Andrea
ALMEIDA Joao Pedro Gonçalves
VALTER Attila
BRENNER Marco
HAYTER Leo
MILAN Jonathan
I mentioned it earlier but Kelderman vs Haig could be a match-up to follow more closely.
They both cost the same amount but quite a big difference in the amount of times they were picked.
Kelderman picked 12 times.
Haig picked 43 times.
Kelderman has scored +700 points in his career 6 times.
Haig has scored +700 points in his career 2 times.
Kelderman has made the switch to JV, great team, where he may be starting out in the Giro as a super-dom for Roglic. It might get him a pretty good place in the GC or if Roglic for some reason does not have a good race, he could become leader,
Kelderman will probably get to ride for himself in a few races outside of the GTs, since Roglic is out for the beginning of the season and Vingegaard is probably all in for the Tour. He will race conservatively until then, I reckon. Looking for one super-peak during the Tour.
Haig has done well and finished 3rd in the Vuelta, but is he capable of that again? Could he score more points in stage-races and one-day races?
I am in the Kelderman corner but happy to hear about thoughts on Haig or why he was more obvious to other people.
I thought it about it too, also because I expect Wilco to step up a bit again. But in the end, I just didn't see (m)any leadership opportunities for him, and Jumbo didn't really strike me as a team where climbing domestiques get a load of freedom.
Personally I don't really expect Piccolo to score too many points, by the way, but I've still chosen him because I saw the potential for him to become a rare pick that makes the difference. In hinsight now, knowing that ~25 others did the same, I think I would have gone for someone else.
Fairly happy with Sam Bennett unexpectedly taking that role instead, though. If he can continue to show what he did in the late part of last season, he imo can come close to 1500pt. Only issue is Meeus improving big time as well.
After the December 31st update pushed my team over budget (due to Van Eetvelt picking some extra points), I had to make some changes. I panicked and picked Axel Mariault (before settling on a more reasonable Syritsa), now THAT's a token french guy thrown in there for no reason at all. I have 8 this year but I'm quite confident in all of them. I get what you are saying about Tesson but it's really hard to be as consistent as he was despite very little help from his own team. TotalEnergies squeezed more than 1k out of Van Gestel and Dujardin last year. Tesson isn't a world beater but surely he can at least get to about 500 points like those guys did.
I'm definitely not hating on the Tesson pick, as I had decided to include him myself at one point. Lorrenzo Manzin, a very good sprinter in his own right, has said he'll be riding as a lead-out for Tesson this year.
I very much expected you to have Berthet, who was quite close to making it into my team. Very surprised to see him as a unique pick for someone. Would also have been a typical skidmark pick (I think maybe he had him last year?).
I like your Arrieta pick. He was very much on my radar, as was another promising Spaniard: Tercero. But I went with Piganzoli as my Kometa climber instead. Seriously considered Diaz Gallego too, but he was just a tiny bit too underwhelming in his half season with Burgos to trust him to get consistent placings in Spanish stage races.
Regarding the overall strategies that you mention in your team breakdown, I'm starting to feel better about my chances the more other teams I see in this thread. I think I will get quite a lot out of the extra points I could spend by not going big. Until quite recently, I was actually gonna go with Pidcock as my most expensive rider. But I came to the conclusion that I prefered the safety of Gaudu over the more uncertain duo of Stuyven and Bagioli.
I can definitely side with your arguments about Roglic and Ayuso. VDP was the first to go from the magnificent trio for me as well. I think maybe I take a bit less for granted that Ayuso will somehow default to 1000 points again and then hopefully kick on from there. Another 1000 point season might also be impressive for him, depending on what makes up those 1000 points. And he'd need to be good enough for the top 5 of CQ ranking for 2022 to be anywhere near a good pick. There are some scenarios where that doesn't happen. But then again, as I said it was a toss-up between him and Gaudu, so I'm obviously leaning more towards a likely very good return for Ayuso. He's the 1000+ rider most likely to double his points, but I also think Roglic could have a better sort of 'average high', albeit with more potentially detrimental uncertainties. Also, not having Roglic can see me getting a bit of a head start in the season. Nice to get points on the board early, and it would be very frustrating if I needed to catch some non-Roglic teams and he didn't deliver.
Interesting choice for a comparison. I have Haig but not Kelderman. But I also tried to persuade myself to take Kelderman. He's normally the kind of pick I would make, but my bigger focus on avoiding picks where there's a chance that you'll shake your head in hindsight saying 'he was obviously finished' made me not take him. His usual incredible consistency in stage races fell off a cliff last year. Could be good reasons for it, but I didn't get as far as the stage where I'd seriously investigate it. Can easily see him doubling his points, but a bit too risky.
Haig was always in my team before Kelderman anyway. I think his 3rd in the Vuelta was a complete lottery ticket, and I have absolutely no expectations of him repeating anything close. A top 5 in the Giro is the best he can dream of, and to be honest I almost expect him to not even finish the Giro. But he's normally very consistent in the one-week stage races, and usually starts the season off with a bang with some cheap 2.Pro points in Spain. A normal 2020 would likely have been a 700-ish season as well, so we can say he's had three of those in a row before getting his season halved last year. I think he's a safe pick with very little downside.
I thought it about it too, also because I expect Wilco to step up a bit again. But in the end, I just didn't see (m)any leadership opportunities for him, and Jumbo didn't really strike me as a team where climbing domestiques get a load of freedom.
I mentioned it earlier but Kelderman vs Haig could be a match-up to follow more closely.
They both cost the same amount but quite a big difference in the amount of times they were picked.
Kelderman picked 12 times.
Haig picked 43 times.
Kelderman has scored +700 points in his career 6 times.
Haig has scored +700 points in his career 2 times.
Kelderman has made the switch to JV, great team, where he may be starting out in the Giro as a super-dom for Roglic. It might get him a pretty good place in the GC or if Roglic for some reason does not have a good race, he could become leader,
Kelderman will probably get to ride for himself in a few races outside of the GTs, since Roglic is out for the beginning of the season and Vingegaard is probably all in for the Tour. He will race conservatively until then, I reckon. Looking for one super-peak during the Tour.
Haig has done well and finished 3rd in the Vuelta, but is he capable of that again? Could he score more points in stage-races and one-day races?
I am in the Kelderman corner but happy to hear about thoughts on Haig or why he was more obvious to other people.
You make some good points. I admit I haven't thought much about Kelderman and that may be a mistake. One thing to keep in mind is that Haig is younger of the two and I guess that's why my subconscious thought it was more likely that he would bounce back after a weaker season.
I have to say I am a little surprised that Uijtdebroeks is THAT popular (unless people chose him because he also has a seducingly complicated name). But I may be proven wrong of course.
It seems like my team will rely the most on Simon Yates and Bettiol and to a lesser extent Pascal Eenkhoorn and Kwiatkowski who I am literally shocked at being at only 21 picks.
Once I'd discounted MVDP, Yates was the only 600+ point rider I seriously considered. And it was only because I'd had him at least twice before in flaky seasons that he wasn't included. Apparently his schedule and targets are a little different this year?
. I get what you are saying about Tesson but it's really hard to be as consistent as he was despite very little help from his own team. TotalEnergies squeezed more than 1k out of Van Gestel and Dujardin last year. Tesson isn't a world beater but surely he can at least get to about 500 points like those guys did.
I'll all for picking a team that you want to root for so I'll never fault someone for going heart over head. I was more speaking from the point of view that you need all three of Vine/Conci/Wright to really hit their ceiling to outscore Roglic presumably and I don't know how likely that is. I wasn't really questioning those picks individually, I think they are all vey reasonable when taken on their own merit.
I don't either. Although when picking a sprinter in that price range I would prefer Gaviria.
Tesson was one of the last to be cut from my team. It was at the stage where I realised I didn't have many GC riders, and all his DNFs last year made me think again. But he does have a huge potential upside in a better team, and I'm sure I'll regret not including him while watching the French Cup races.
Tesson was one of the last to be cut from my team. It was at the stage where I realised I didn't have many GC riders, and all his DNFs last year made me think again. But he does have a huge potential upside in a better team, and I'm sure I'll regret not including him while watching the French Cup races.
I had Tesson on my list too, but in the end I left him out. I thought he would do better last year, actually, where he was one of my unique picks. Ok, he was injured in Feb-March, which meant he lost a few of the French 1.1 races. But later in the season, September-October, when he had his chances in the bigger races he didn't deliver. He already had his contract by then though.
I can definitely side with your arguments about Roglic and Ayuso. VDP was the first to go from the magnificent trio for me as well. I think maybe I take a bit less for granted that Ayuso will somehow default to 1000 points again and then hopefully kick on from there. Another 1000 point season might also be impressive for him, depending on what makes up those 1000 points. And he'd need to be good enough for the top 5 of CQ ranking for 2022 to be anywhere near a good pick. There are some scenarios where that doesn't happen. But then again, as I said it was a toss-up between him and Gaudu, so I'm obviously leaning more towards a likely very good return for Ayuso. He's the 1000+ rider most likely to double his points, but I also think Roglic could have a better sort of 'average high', albeit with more potentially detrimental uncertainties. Also, not having Roglic can see me getting a bit of a head start in the season. Nice to get points on the board early, and it would be very frustrating if I needed to catch some non-Roglic teams and he didn't deliver.
So I guess I'll expand a little more on Ayuso and why I think 2000 points is a very realistic target. Lost in all the awesomeness of his 2022 season is that a lot of things actually went wrong last year. He crashed out of the Dauphiné and he didn't finish San Sebastian, Amstel or the Flèche Wallonne. He was well placed in the front group in the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana queen stage before a mechanical on the gravel section ruined his GC. He had a first bout with covid in February which prevented him fron racing the Ruta del Sol and a second one during the Vuelta (although I'm not sure that one actually cost him that many points).
In the end, he only got to defend his chances in only three of his six planned stage races and he got 5th in Catalunya, 4th in Romandie and 3rd in the Vuelta. That speaks to his consistency and insanely high baseline.
It's hard to see him throw up zeroes in the biggest hilly classics again since he has shown he's pretty good at one day racing in lower tier races. He hasn't yet proven he can handle the distance but with an extra year of improvement and a completed GT he should be much better equipped to handle the distance this time around. Remember that Pogacar's first try in the Ardennes was DNF Amstel, 53rd Flèche and 18th Liège. The following year he finished 9th at Flèche and 3rd at Liège (and it's been going pretty well ever since). So yes that part is more projection than the rest but I don't think that it's a crazy one to make. He'll probably be a domestique for Pagacar during a few WT classics but still I don't think it's crazy to expect a couple of Ayuso top10 in WT classics in 2023.
If he does that and gets 5-6 stage races where he's healthy and riding at 2022 levels, he'll get to 2k points. If he keeps improving and he is the best or second best rider at the Vuelta instead of being like the fourth best that's also a few more hundred points on top. That's why I have Ayuso as the best 1k+ rider even in front of Roglic.
Regarding the overall strategies that you mention in your team breakdown, I'm starting to feel better about my chances the more other teams I see in this thread. I think I will get quite a lot out of the extra points I could spend by not going big. Until quite recently, I was actually gonna go with Pidcock as my most expensive rider. But I came to the conclusion that I prefered the safety of Gaudu over the more uncertain duo of Stuyven and Bagioli.
I can definitely side with your arguments about Roglic and Ayuso. VDP was the first to go from the magnificent trio for me as well. I think maybe I take a bit less for granted that Ayuso will somehow default to 1000 points again and then hopefully kick on from there. Another 1000 point season might also be impressive for him, depending on what makes up those 1000 points. And he'd need to be good enough for the top 5 of CQ ranking for 2022 to be anywhere near a good pick. There are some scenarios where that doesn't happen. But then again, as I said it was a toss-up between him and Gaudu, so I'm obviously leaning more towards a likely very good return for Ayuso. He's the 1000+ rider most likely to double his points, but I also think Roglic could have a better sort of 'average high', albeit with more potentially detrimental uncertainties. Also, not having Roglic can see me getting a bit of a head start in the season. Nice to get points on the board early, and it would be very frustrating if I needed to catch some non-Roglic teams and he didn't deliver.
Interesting choice for a comparison. I have Haig but not Kelderman. But I also tried to persuade myself to take Kelderman. He's normally the kind of pick I would make, but my bigger focus on avoiding picks where there's a chance that you'll shake your head in hindsight saying 'he was obviously finished' made me not take him. His usual incredible consistency in stage races fell off a cliff last year. Could be good reasons for it, but I didn't get as far as the stage where I'd seriously investigate it. Can easily see him doubling his points, but a bit too risky.
Haig was always in my team before Kelderman anyway. I think his 3rd in the Vuelta was a complete lottery ticket, and I have absolutely no expectations of him repeating anything close. A top 5 in the Giro is the best he can dream of, and to be honest I almost expect him to not even finish the Giro. But he's normally very consistent in the one-week stage races, and usually starts the season off with a bang with some cheap 2.Pro points in Spain. A normal 2020 would likely have been a 700-ish season as well, so we can say he's had three of those in a row before getting his season halved last year. I think he's a safe pick with very little downside.
Very similar thinking behind my team selection this year. My three least certain picks (Ewan, Storer and Kragh Andersen) are roughly the same points total as Roglic, and it wouldn't take much for those three combined to return a better profit, and they'll much more fun to follow for me personally.
Also thought about Gaudu as I like him and have had him twice before and he could easily have a great season. However, 770 points meant cutting a lot of cheaper riders with more risk, but more potential upside.
Another interesting comparison and potential match-up I found is Honorè vs Bagioli.
Both cost pretty much the same. Only 1 point difference.
Bagioli picked 17 times.
Honoré picked 39 times.
Bagioli was a fairly popular pick last year but has lost some supporters. Still he won a stage in Catalunya last year. Finished third in Grand Prix Cycliste de Montréal, behind Pog and Van Aert. He was 8th in Gran Piemonte. He has had some bad luck during his first few seasons but is a rider with good potential that could very well be due a breakthrough.
Honoré had a great 2021 season, but couldnt quite follow it up last season. He ended the season on a good note. Is it because people have that 2021 season on their mind or that he has changed teams that make him more of an attractive pick? That he will be more of a leader at EF? Managers were maybe faced with a choice, they couldnt fit in both and went with Honoré?
I am a bit torn about who could have the highest ceiling between the two. Luckily I dont have to twist and turn about it, since I was able to fit both into my team. Hopefully they both perform well this year.
So I guess I'll expand a little more on Ayuso and why I think 2000 points is a very realistic target. Lost in all the awesomeness of his 2022 season is that a lot of things actually went wrong last year. He crashed out of the Dauphiné and he didn't finish San Sebastian, Amstel or the Flèche Wallonne. He was well placed in the front group in the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana queen stage before a mechanical on the gravel section ruined his GC. He had a first bout with covid in February which prevented him fron racing the Ruta del Sol and a second one during the Vuelta (although I'm not sure that one actually cost him that many points).
In the end, he only got to defend his chances in only three of his six planned stage races and he got 5th in Catalunya, 4th in Romandie and 3rd in the Vuelta. That speaks to his consistency and insanely high baseline.
It's hard to see him throw up zeroes in the biggest hilly classics again since he has shown he's pretty good at one day racing in lower tier races. He hasn't yet proven he can handle the distance but with an extra year of improvement and a completed GT he should be much better equipped to handle the distance this time around. Remember that Pogacar's first try in the Ardennes was DNF Amstel, 53rd Flèche and 18th Liège. The following year he finished 9th at Flèche and 3rd at Liège (and it's been going pretty well ever since). So yes that part is more projection than the rest but I don't think that it's a crazy one to make. He'll probably be a domestique for Pagacar during a few WT classics but still I don't think it's crazy to expect a couple of Ayuso top10 in WT classics in 2023.
If he does that and gets 5-6 stage races where he's healthy and riding at 2022 levels, he'll get to 2k points. If he keeps improving and he is the best or second best rider at the Vuelta instead of being like the fourth best that's also a few more hundred points on top. That's why I have Ayuso as the best 1k+ rider even in front of Roglic.
I don't disagree, and I did roughly the same estimation for him. But from this and other postings that I've seen from many different CQ players, I can kind of tell why I've been in and around the top ten more than most people, but never won. I tend to think more along the lines of what's the worst case scenario for a rider, while a lot of others look at more optimistic scenarios. If you give me a choice between someone who will do one out of a 350, 600 or a 1100 season, and one who will give me either 600, 650 or 700, I will most likely pick the latter. While this will give me good consistency across many seasons, with 100 or so teams there's bound to be a few that hit the 1100 season of the other rider.
Very similar thinking behind my team selection this year. My three least certain picks (Ewan, Storer and Kragh Andersen) are roughly the same points total as Roglic, and it wouldn't take much for those three combined to return a better profit, and they'll much more fun to follow for me personally.
The thing you're forgetting (although I don't think you actually ARE) is the two open spots for cheap exciting riders. You can't just compare three riders to one that way. Fx take two of Ben Hermans,Milan Vader, David Dekker, Joshua Tarling or Kim Heiduk and couple them with Roglic.
Personally I will follow the direct point battle between Milan and Van Uden during the year, because this in particular will show if I was wise in my team decision making or not. If Ayuso ends up being a way better +1000 pick than VDP and Roglic, I like the young man so much that it'll almost not sadden me.
The thing you're forgetting (although I don't think you actually ARE) is the two open spots for cheap exciting riders. You can't just compare three riders to one that way. Fx take two of Ben Hermans,Milan Vader, David Dekker, Joshua Tarling or Kim Heiduk and couple them with Roglic.
Personally I will follow the direct point battle between Milan and Van Uden during the year, because this in particular will show if I was wise in my team decision making or not. If Ayuso ends up being a way better +1000 pick than VDP and Roglic, I like the young man so much that it'll almost not sadden me.
It's funny how often we end up turning two riders at similar prices into a direct comparison and picking just the better one for our team instead of comparing both to the rest of talent pool to see whether zero, one or both should be picked. I'm definitely guilty of that at times. It's part of the reason why I don't think we'll see many VDP and Roglic teams considering their virtually identical price tags.
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