most decisive rider so far it seems: picked by 4 teams, three of them are the top 3 overall as it stands
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most decisive rider so far it seems: picked by 4 teams, three of them are the top 3 overall as it stands
Update #15: Kazakh Stans are happy
With the unpicked Pogacar (who looks, at a CQ price of 3400, like he might actually be on the collective ignorance team at year end) scorching the field yet again at AGR, teams had to look elsewhere for points this week, and the minor placings in Amstel as well as the GC in Sicilia bore fruit for a good chunk of teams, leading to a very close race for the weekly win.
This Week's Top Scorers
The top 4 teams were over 100 points ahead of the rest of the field, and separated by less than 30 points from each other. The fight at the top is won by vladimir, who got 624 points on the backs of Lutsenko (216 points, 23 teams), Pidcock (112, 76), Bagioli (110, 17), Finn Fisher-Black (94, 36), Lenny Martinez (53, 58), and Kim Heiduk (29, 2). This is enough to edge out zaka fan, who had the above except for unique pick Victor Lafay (104 points) instead of FFB and Heiduk - oh so close! Eyeballs out is a mere 10 behind that for third, missing Bagioli from vladimir's equation but getting 66 from unique pick Clement Berthet, as well as a few more 5-pointers.
This Week's High Movers
The same podium here in different order, with zaka fan moving up a cool 27 spots, and all of the top 3 moving up 19 or more.
Green Jersey Competition
Competition leader rote laterne scores 18 more points this week to gain some breathing room at the top, while zaka fan's 35 weekly points are enough to gain entry to the top 5 overall.
Top 10 Overall
Blues in the bottle loses around 35 points to will10 but gains over 100 to previous 2nd place holder Whoops to maintain a lead of around 400 points. There's a bit of bumping and jumping around the top 10, with weekly scores ranging from below 200 to above 400. DJW and Sneekes move into the top 10, while escartin and Houdini Cycling slide out.
This week is the Tour of the Alps, the rest of the Ardennes, and a couple of other races here and there. Romandie and Giro on the horizon!
spreadsheet at dropbox
With the unpicked Pogacar (who looks, at a CQ price of 3400, like he might actually be on the collective ignorance team at year end) scorching the field yet again at AGR, teams had to look elsewhere for points this week, and the minor placings in Amstel as well as the GC in Sicilia bore fruit for a good chunk of teams, leading to a very close race for the weekly win.
This Week's Top Scorers
| Rank | Team | Points this week |
| 1 | vladimir | 624 |
| 2 | zaka_fan | 617 |
| 3 | Eyeballs Out | 607 |
| 4 | DJ Sprtsch | 596 |
| 5 | Nevs | 488 |
The top 4 teams were over 100 points ahead of the rest of the field, and separated by less than 30 points from each other. The fight at the top is won by vladimir, who got 624 points on the backs of Lutsenko (216 points, 23 teams), Pidcock (112, 76), Bagioli (110, 17), Finn Fisher-Black (94, 36), Lenny Martinez (53, 58), and Kim Heiduk (29, 2). This is enough to edge out zaka fan, who had the above except for unique pick Victor Lafay (104 points) instead of FFB and Heiduk - oh so close! Eyeballs out is a mere 10 behind that for third, missing Bagioli from vladimir's equation but getting 66 from unique pick Clement Berthet, as well as a few more 5-pointers.
This Week's High Movers
| Rank | Team | Up/down |
| 1 | zaka_fan | (+27) |
| 2 | Eyeballs Out | (+25) |
| 3 | vladimir | (+19) |
| 4 | Nevs | (+15) |
| 5 | DJ Sprtsch | (+14) |
The same podium here in different order, with zaka fan moving up a cool 27 spots, and all of the top 3 moving up 19 or more.
Green Jersey Competition
| Rank | Team | Total |
| 1 | rote_laterne | 184.5 |
| 2 | Blues in the bottle | 159.5 |
| 3 | escartin | 146 |
| 4 | bminchow | 137.3 |
| 5 | zaka_fan | 123.3 |
Competition leader rote laterne scores 18 more points this week to gain some breathing room at the top, while zaka fan's 35 weekly points are enough to gain entry to the top 5 overall.
Top 10 Overall
| Rank | Up/down | Team | Points |
| 1 | (-) | Blues in the bottle | 5422 |
| 2 | (+1) | will10 | 5038 |
| 3 | (-1) | Whoops | 5030 |
| 4 | (+2) | repre | 5012 |
| 5 | (-1) | Riverside | 4934 |
| 6 | (+1) | Kazistuta | 4927 |
| 7 | (+2) | Crevaison | 4880 |
| 8 | (-3) | tobydawq | 4805 |
| 9 | (+2) | DJW | 4748 |
| 10 | (+6) | Sneekes | 4744 |
Blues in the bottle loses around 35 points to will10 but gains over 100 to previous 2nd place holder Whoops to maintain a lead of around 400 points. There's a bit of bumping and jumping around the top 10, with weekly scores ranging from below 200 to above 400. DJW and Sneekes move into the top 10, while escartin and Houdini Cycling slide out.
This week is the Tour of the Alps, the rest of the Ardennes, and a couple of other races here and there. Romandie and Giro on the horizon!
spreadsheet at dropbox
From Procyclingstats:
Also, I've realized that it would have been so much better to just stick with the original and obvious cheapos I had in my team, like Schelling, Bol and Fisher-Black, instead of trying to be fancy with Piganzoli, Carstensen and Osborne.
As usual in the years when it's not going well for me, I'm trying to be too clever for my own good!
- GAUDU David (Groupama - FDJ) abandoned the race.
- PIDCOCK Thomas (INEOS Grenadiers) is at the back of the peloton.
Also, I've realized that it would have been so much better to just stick with the original and obvious cheapos I had in my team, like Schelling, Bol and Fisher-Black, instead of trying to be fancy with Piganzoli, Carstensen and Osborne.
As usual in the years when it's not going well for me, I'm trying to be too clever for my own good!
They have my sympathies! Was strongly considering him as well, so I dodged a bullet there. He'll be in my team soon enough anyway, at this rate.What about the Ayuso pickers?
Arensman is riding horribly rather than being injured, that's simply a very expensive incorrect pick, albeit worse than anyone could have expected (just like Piccolo, who I do have). Completely different situation to Ayuso which is down to terrible luck.
After a few good weeks the peak of my team has probably passed as it was pretty cobble-focused.
At least I got to be mentioned in an update this year. Now pray Roglic keeps me in the first half of the pack.
Way top many 'former glory stinkers' in my squad with Sagan, Kwiatkowski, Lampaert, Stuyven
At least I got to be mentioned in an update this year. Now pray Roglic keeps me in the first half of the pack.
Way top many 'former glory stinkers' in my squad with Sagan, Kwiatkowski, Lampaert, Stuyven
I have Roglic and I still wouldn't mind swapping teams. That's how terrible the 32 other picks have been.From Procyclingstats:
Not what I need to read about my two most expensive riders in the live update for FW, a race which should suit both of them perfectly. Meanwhile I'm sure the Roglic pickers are on a beach somewhere, sipping on their umbrella cocktails, getting ready for the Giro.
- GAUDU David (Groupama - FDJ) abandoned the race.
- PIDCOCK Thomas (INEOS Grenadiers) is at the back of the peloton.
Also, I've realized that it would have been so much better to just stick with the original and obvious cheapos I had in my team, like Schelling, Bol and Fisher-Black, instead of trying to be fancy with Piganzoli, Carstensen and Osborne.
As usual in the years when it's not going well for me, I'm trying to be too clever for my own good!
I shouldn't complain about having a successful team last year but going from a team that had 6500+ points after LBL to one that is barely above 3500 after Amstel is rough.
Skjelmose gets some decent points today and only on 4 teams
Thanks for the update sir. Even if I am steadily dropping in the standings. I doesnt really affect the standings this week, but i noted on my team that Ben Turner has a popularity of zero. I wonder if there might be an error in the spreadsheet somewhere?
CQ changed his first name in their database from Ben to Benjamin last season and then back just after the start of this one, requiring a manual fix in the spreadsheet both times, messing up the popularity tables.
ahhh that makes sense. As long as I am getting all of his zero points.
My bottom 2 have Divide by 0 errorsat least my seven cheapest cyclists are in the green.
Can't believe I passed on picking repeat riders from my 2022 team for a bunch of guys that don't even show up to race. Although Van Eetvelt adding a doping suspension was a nice touch to add a different flavor to the "whole team sucks" vibes.
Please no ban but I find it a little bit funny to see EvansIsTheBest being all grumpy this year
I used up all my luck last year for sure but at least I'm saving time on my 2024 prep. I'll just resubmit the same team at this rate
Armchair Cyclist
Moderator
Not in the Spring Classics game he isn't. Putting the final tweaks to his acceptance speech over there (barring a Sam Welsford victory, or something really extraordinary, in Frankfurt.)
Now when the classics season has come to the end and about 1/3 of the season has gone by... it might be time to do a kind of review about how it is going so far.
After a decent start and a top 20 position, it has gone downhill in the past month or so for my team. However, taking a closer look... it was probably expected for this period with very few riders for the cobbles and no Roglic, which might still be felt with the upcoming Giro.
Some riders that are not looking like the best picks right now.
Piccolo - Very slow start, with only 33 points to show for it. He will need to pick up the pace over the summer and the latter half of the season. A good run of form over a few one-day races could yield many points still.
Kelderman - Looked strong in T-A until he... crashed! Dammit Wilco. He has at least looked good, which cant be said for a few others, when he raced and hopefully he can stay on his bike...
Honore - A rider I was unsure of, but that I picked anyway because it "made sense". Would have hoped for more points during the spring from him. He has scored about 1/3 of what he cost, so not terrible, but a big profit is looking unlikely.
Aleotti - Ngl it was a pick that was made on a whim. He started alright in Australia, but then got sick and injured himself in training. Looked decent this weekend in LBL working for the team, but a profit is looking unlikely.
Tulett - He is not scoring very much, but he is at least finishing the races so far. 3rd in the ITT in Etoile Bessenges and 6th in Jaen, shows his potential, but maybe it is a year or so too early for this game.
Asgreen - 7th in Flanders but other than that it has been a pretty disappointing spring from him so far, like the rest of Soudal except for you know who.
Schachmann - It doesnt look good at all for him and a wasted pick.
Mihkels - He has scored some minor points in some smaller races and he was in a good position going into the Arenberg in PR, but punctured I think and lost a lot of time? He finished far down in the end. Maybe he gets better as the season goes on, in his first season as a pro, but maybe it was a year too early to pick him.
Brenner - It doesnt look good at all and with the reported problems that he has. Wasted pick.
Marit - Would have hoped he would ride more minor one-day races during the spring and not race the Tour of Oman, P-N and Catalunya. Not the best schedule to score many points for him.
Nys - He has barely raced anything, so it is hard to say much about him. We will see over the summer and into the fall, I guess.
Cattaneo - He will be in the Soudal train for the Giro and it is hard to see where he will be scoring any points. Doesnt look like the best pick.
De Gendt A. - A pretty boring pick that was picked with the points that were left. Injured himsef in training just before the season started and crashed in Ronde, fractured elbow. Doesnt look too good.
Moscon - Looking like a terrible pick. Probably needs to go to another team to revive his career, when his contract is up with Astana. Wonder who will give him a chance or if anyone will be interested after the last couple of seasons and the baggage he comes with.
Hermans B. - Maybe it is age but the riders that have suffered from fatigue problems, or long post-covid, seems to have a really hard time getting back to previous level.
Bernal - We will see what happens with him, but this is more and more looking like a Froome 2.0 situation. I hope he can turn it around sooner rather than later.
Some positives are Pidcock, Bagioli, Van Wilder, L. Martinez, Gregoiré, Gloag, Fischer-Black... but the problem is none of these will probably score a lot of points, except for Pidcock. Van Wilder looks really good though and could potentially be a big scorer. Bagioli has been decent and could get better as the season goes on. There is also Sivakov who looks solid and is picking up points in every race, but not scoring the big points so far. Plapp had a decent start, but done nothing since the UAE Tour.
My team will probably not finish very high up in the rankings, so just finishing in the top half of the table will have to be the goal for this year as of now.
After a decent start and a top 20 position, it has gone downhill in the past month or so for my team. However, taking a closer look... it was probably expected for this period with very few riders for the cobbles and no Roglic, which might still be felt with the upcoming Giro.
Some riders that are not looking like the best picks right now.
Piccolo - Very slow start, with only 33 points to show for it. He will need to pick up the pace over the summer and the latter half of the season. A good run of form over a few one-day races could yield many points still.
Kelderman - Looked strong in T-A until he... crashed! Dammit Wilco. He has at least looked good, which cant be said for a few others, when he raced and hopefully he can stay on his bike...
Honore - A rider I was unsure of, but that I picked anyway because it "made sense". Would have hoped for more points during the spring from him. He has scored about 1/3 of what he cost, so not terrible, but a big profit is looking unlikely.
Aleotti - Ngl it was a pick that was made on a whim. He started alright in Australia, but then got sick and injured himself in training. Looked decent this weekend in LBL working for the team, but a profit is looking unlikely.
Tulett - He is not scoring very much, but he is at least finishing the races so far. 3rd in the ITT in Etoile Bessenges and 6th in Jaen, shows his potential, but maybe it is a year or so too early for this game.
Asgreen - 7th in Flanders but other than that it has been a pretty disappointing spring from him so far, like the rest of Soudal except for you know who.
Schachmann - It doesnt look good at all for him and a wasted pick.
Mihkels - He has scored some minor points in some smaller races and he was in a good position going into the Arenberg in PR, but punctured I think and lost a lot of time? He finished far down in the end. Maybe he gets better as the season goes on, in his first season as a pro, but maybe it was a year too early to pick him.
Brenner - It doesnt look good at all and with the reported problems that he has. Wasted pick.
Marit - Would have hoped he would ride more minor one-day races during the spring and not race the Tour of Oman, P-N and Catalunya. Not the best schedule to score many points for him.
Nys - He has barely raced anything, so it is hard to say much about him. We will see over the summer and into the fall, I guess.
Cattaneo - He will be in the Soudal train for the Giro and it is hard to see where he will be scoring any points. Doesnt look like the best pick.
De Gendt A. - A pretty boring pick that was picked with the points that were left. Injured himsef in training just before the season started and crashed in Ronde, fractured elbow. Doesnt look too good.
Moscon - Looking like a terrible pick. Probably needs to go to another team to revive his career, when his contract is up with Astana. Wonder who will give him a chance or if anyone will be interested after the last couple of seasons and the baggage he comes with.
Hermans B. - Maybe it is age but the riders that have suffered from fatigue problems, or long post-covid, seems to have a really hard time getting back to previous level.
Bernal - We will see what happens with him, but this is more and more looking like a Froome 2.0 situation. I hope he can turn it around sooner rather than later.
Some positives are Pidcock, Bagioli, Van Wilder, L. Martinez, Gregoiré, Gloag, Fischer-Black... but the problem is none of these will probably score a lot of points, except for Pidcock. Van Wilder looks really good though and could potentially be a big scorer. Bagioli has been decent and could get better as the season goes on. There is also Sivakov who looks solid and is picking up points in every race, but not scoring the big points so far. Plapp had a decent start, but done nothing since the UAE Tour.
My team will probably not finish very high up in the rankings, so just finishing in the top half of the table will have to be the goal for this year as of now.
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Update #16: The Tao of Londonpat
With the second and third legs of the Ardennes and the Tour of the Alps taking up all the space this week, successful teams would inevitably have a mix of success in all of these races. And indeed, although the range of scores for most of the pack was fairly small, some teams stood to gain quite a bit with the right combo of riders.
This Week's Top Scorers
Londonpat ekes out victory this week, thanks to a few big scorers. The resurgent Tao Geoghegan Hart topped the list, netting 237 points for the mere 3 teams that decided to take a change on him again after a down 2021 and 2022. His teammate Tom Pidcock continued a bounceback year as well, netting 188 points for a considerably higher number of teams (76). Londonpat also good good returns from Jack Haig (110, 44), Aurelien Paret-Paintre (53, 12), Attila Valter (52, 2), and the first signs of life of the season for De Plus (42, 4) and Tobias Johannessen (40, 20). trackstand lands only 11 points back in second thanks to Hart, Haig, Pidcock, Michael Woods (142, 6) and little else. comodoro is a ways back in third, missing TGH but getting good contributions from unique pick Hugh Carthy (120 points) and rare pick Pavel Sivakov (99, 2).
This Week's High Movers
The top 2 are flipped here, with trackstand gaining 9 more spots than Londonpat. zaka_fan moves up a spot from the previous ranking to make the podium here.
Green Jersey Competition
The top 2 score no points this week, but things get closer directly below as bminchow gets 14 points on the week and zaka fan gets 26 so they both leapfrog escartin.
Top 10 Overall
No movement in the top 6 this week, with teams ranging from 317 to 448 points, although that 448 was 2nd place will10, meaning BitB loses about 60 points of lead. Further down, jsem94 is the only new entrant into the top 10, with DJW sliding down.
This week sees the WT-level Tour of Romandie and Vuelta a Asturias as the main events, and then the next update will see the start of the first grand tour of the year.
spreadsheet at dropbox
With the second and third legs of the Ardennes and the Tour of the Alps taking up all the space this week, successful teams would inevitably have a mix of success in all of these races. And indeed, although the range of scores for most of the pack was fairly small, some teams stood to gain quite a bit with the right combo of riders.
This Week's Top Scorers
| Rank | Team | Points this week |
| 1 | Londonpat | 757 |
| 2 | trackstand | 746 |
| 3 | comodoro | 611 |
| 4 | zaka_fan | 578 |
| 5 | del1962 | 510 |
Londonpat ekes out victory this week, thanks to a few big scorers. The resurgent Tao Geoghegan Hart topped the list, netting 237 points for the mere 3 teams that decided to take a change on him again after a down 2021 and 2022. His teammate Tom Pidcock continued a bounceback year as well, netting 188 points for a considerably higher number of teams (76). Londonpat also good good returns from Jack Haig (110, 44), Aurelien Paret-Paintre (53, 12), Attila Valter (52, 2), and the first signs of life of the season for De Plus (42, 4) and Tobias Johannessen (40, 20). trackstand lands only 11 points back in second thanks to Hart, Haig, Pidcock, Michael Woods (142, 6) and little else. comodoro is a ways back in third, missing TGH but getting good contributions from unique pick Hugh Carthy (120 points) and rare pick Pavel Sivakov (99, 2).
This Week's High Movers
| Rank | Team | Up/down |
| 1 | trackstand | (+28) |
| 2 | Londonpat | (+19) |
| 3 | zaka_fan | (+12) |
| 4 | vladimir | (+10) |
| 4 | comodoro | (+10) |
| 4 | bminchow | (+10) |
The top 2 are flipped here, with trackstand gaining 9 more spots than Londonpat. zaka_fan moves up a spot from the previous ranking to make the podium here.
Green Jersey Competition
| Rank | Team | Total |
| 1 | rote_laterne | 184.5 |
| 2 | Blues in the bottle | 159.5 |
| 3 | bminchow | 151.3 |
| 4 | zaka_fan | 149.3 |
| 5 | escartin | 146 |
The top 2 score no points this week, but things get closer directly below as bminchow gets 14 points on the week and zaka fan gets 26 so they both leapfrog escartin.
Top 10 Overall
| Rank | Up/down | Team | Points |
| 1 | (-) | Blues in the bottle | 5807 |
| 2 | (-) | will10 | 5486 |
| 3 | (-) | Whoops | 5399 |
| 4 | (-) | repre | 5379 |
| 5 | (-) | Riverside | 5255 |
| 6 | (-) | Kazistuta | 5244 |
| 7 | (+1) | tobydawq | 5190 |
| 8 | (+2) | Sneekes | 5144 |
| 9 | (-2) | Crevaison | 5130 |
| 10 | (+5) | jsem94 | 5084 |
No movement in the top 6 this week, with teams ranging from 317 to 448 points, although that 448 was 2nd place will10, meaning BitB loses about 60 points of lead. Further down, jsem94 is the only new entrant into the top 10, with DJW sliding down.
This week sees the WT-level Tour of Romandie and Vuelta a Asturias as the main events, and then the next update will see the start of the first grand tour of the year.
spreadsheet at dropbox
The leading score is already 750 points lower than it was after Liège last season, which makes sense because it feels like very few of the more obvious picks not named Roglic or Pidcock have done much this season. After two really high-scoring years, it looks like we're back in the world where doubling your budget is a rare accomplishment.
A good reflection of this: so far, the differentiating pick is Healy (as mentioned upthread) - the four teams who have him are first, second, third and eighth. That's a pretty big impact for a score of 651 points, but no other pick has been in so much as the same league so far.
A good reflection of this: so far, the differentiating pick is Healy (as mentioned upthread) - the four teams who have him are first, second, third and eighth. That's a pretty big impact for a score of 651 points, but no other pick has been in so much as the same league so far.
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@Devil's Elbow remarks made wonder how high the correlation between the leading score post LBL and year end leader was. Excluding 2020 because the calendar was understandly completely different, here's how it looks like:
Teams that were both leading after LBL and at the end of the year are in green. Will Blues in the bottle be the third ? They have a bigger gap than anyone I can recall at this stage bu then again skidmark's legendary 2012 team wasn't even top 10 at this stage of the season so who knows.
The correlation is suprisingly high (R² of .8) considering we are only about a third of the way through the season scoring wise and the teams leading after LBL and the end of year tend to be different ones (probably heavier focus on the classics for the former). Using the equation from the trend line, we would expect the winning score to be 15576 points. Let's see how far off this ends up (every team outside of a wonky three year stretch in 2015-2017 has been within 1k of the expected value).
Teams that were both leading after LBL and at the end of the year are in green. Will Blues in the bottle be the third ? They have a bigger gap than anyone I can recall at this stage bu then again skidmark's legendary 2012 team wasn't even top 10 at this stage of the season so who knows.
The correlation is suprisingly high (R² of .8) considering we are only about a third of the way through the season scoring wise and the teams leading after LBL and the end of year tend to be different ones (probably heavier focus on the classics for the former). Using the equation from the trend line, we would expect the winning score to be 15576 points. Let's see how far off this ends up (every team outside of a wonky three year stretch in 2015-2017 has been within 1k of the expected value).
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