Okay, I'll just have time to post my prefabricated thoughts on my own team, will return after work to see what I striked out on:
GEOGHEGAN HART Tao (696): I’m still not completely sold on his skill set, but after all he looks like the closest GC competitor to the big 4, if he returns from his pelvis injury at his old self. Not a slob in uphill sprints either. Hoping for 1500 points return. Oh yeah, he was at INEOS in 2023 - you’ll get the theme later.
VAUQUELIN Kévin (517): One of my last additions. Saw him rival Matthias Skjelmose several times in ’22, and seeing the leap Skjelmose made last year, I’m hoping and thinking the talented Frenchman can do the same in ’24. 1000+ points if he avoids bad luck like last year. Probably not going to get more than 10-15 backers, so it's gonna be fun to cheer extra for a more expensive guy.
JAKOBSEN Fabio (502): A former World beater, which for some odd reason lost his Mojo last season. Guys like Ewan, Gaviria, Ackermann and perhaps even Matthews roam in this point range, but the ceiling for the Dutchman is higher, though it seems like a boom-or-bust pick. My boom is 1000 points.
CARAPAZ MONTENEGRO Richard Antonio (497): Carapaz is such an interesting rider to watch, and last years results definitely didn’t match his efforts. There is so much room for improvement points wise. He should comfortably break the 1000 point barrier, but here’s hoping for 1500. Probably a candidate for top5 consensus.
HAYTER Ethan (496): I wouldn’t call myself a Hayter, but I’m not particularly fond of the Brit. Can’t really put a finger on it, might be ‘cause he rarely seems to be giving his all. There’s no denying he has the abilities to score in a lot of races all season long, and if last seasons collective INEOS23 downturn was a one-off, I might better get on the comeback-train, Hayter or not. 1000+ points.
GIRMAY HAILU Biniam (476): The first pick on my list. Should a top5 consensus pick, if everyone sees with fresh eyes (pun intended). The young Eritrean is a CQ-top10 scorer waiting to happen. So here it is, I’m picking Bini for 1800+ points.
COSNEFROY Benoît (456): Yesyes! Last year I couldn’t find room for any riders for the big French calendar, this year I have at least three, perhaps even four. I’ve always loved Benoits racing pedigree, though the results don’t always show what a quality rider he is. I’m sure he’ll get back to his 2022 level and get 1000 points again.
PLAPP Lucas (341): Plapp seemed out-of-it at In-e-os, but now he returns to the safe haven of his national team Jayco. This guy showed so much promise early on, both in climbing and time trialing, that he easily can top 750 points, if he gets his legs and mind back on track, now when leaving INEOS23.
BENNETT Sam (302): I think Bennett’s a fragile mind, but I know he’s not done yet. An easy French calendar and a clear captain status will hopefully get his confidence going, so a 800-1000 point season is possible.
ARENSMAN Thymen (283): What’s that, INEOS23 you say? The spicy guy stays at the British team, but he’ll have to get back to his diesel TT and climbing abilities to work out as a pick. The ceiling is around 1000 points, but have to be satisfied with 500.
MARTINEZ POVEDA Daniel Felipe (279): WTH happened to Martinez last year? I’ve heard nothing about any serious problems, so it puzzled me how a talented rider like himself ended below 300 points - except that he got struck by the INEOS23 curse. Now he’s at Bora, where he will have just as many top riders to compete with - don’t know if that’s sustainable. I threw another Colombian overboard due to the presence of Roglic, just couldn’t do it again. Give me 500 points to not regret it, Daniel!
BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley (262): Those darn’d Columbians. Bernal is/was so gifted, and we’re still to see if he can return to his old self after the horrible accident, but just the fact that he was able to finish two grand tours last year while at INEOS23 tells me his core power is right. Still have to show his peak power though, and this pick is mostly to avoid losing out, because I’m not totally sold on him. A hopeful 500 points?
LAURANCE Axel (187): Definitely a rider that is on upwards trajectory points wise. Way to good, and hopefully Alpecin will let him captain a lot of the races that suit him. Fast, but still very interesting to see which way he transforms. I shall let him prove me right when hitting +500 points.
BUSATTO Francesco (186): Should have the skill set to be an absolute points burner for Intermarche, if they choose his schedule carefully. Fast, punchy and with a knack for hitting the right moments. I dream high and predict a +700 season.
VAN UDEN Casper (177): With the arrival of Jakobsen the former U23 sprint dominator should be poised for a lot of chances in second rate races in 2024. He hasn’t exactly set the pro scene on fire, but not all sprinters are Arnaud De Lies. DSM seem to trust their project, so why shouldn’t I? 500 points if he gets the ball rolling on an easy schedule.
LAMPERTI Luke (176): A young, fast sprinter on Soudal, who’s losing 2/3 of their best sprinters? Count me in! Lamperti will likely be on many teams this year, but he should rather easily pick up 400+ points judging by his skillset and supposed role on the team. Is he the De Lie of this season?
GLOAG Thomas (171): One of three talented young riders from Visma, I couldn’t steer clear of. He might have a bit of a bike handling problem, but he looks aggressive and impressive as a climber. I’m unsure of his role this year, but it seemed like he already got some chances last year, so the potential for a +400 season is there.
HONORE Mikkel Frølich (169): A repeat from my team last year, since Honore didn’t exactly live up to anyones expectations in 2023. He really didn’t have a lot of major excuses, but his Autumn of ’21 still plays in my mind. Potential for 500+, but it could just as easily be another bummer.
BARONCINI Filippo (163): I think the verdict is still out on him, even though many have written him off by now. I’ve seen enough to still hope for a resurgence of the WCU23 road race champion from 2021 and a ensuing point explosion. A new environment might help on the way. +300 points, higher ceiling.
RICCITELLO Matthew (169): I loved his racing in Avenir, and the American should definitely be one to watch in the future. Might be a little too soon picking him, but it’s nice to have up-and-coming riders to cheer for, and Israel is not a particularly GC loaded team, so Ricci could get some freedom during the year. +200 points.
TURNER Ben (158): Okay, I have to embarrassingly admit, that I couldn’t really tell the two Ben T’s from each other even after two seasons - who was good at what and all that, and never really bothered to really dig into it. Both seem pretty talented, though, so I picked the cheapest one to really get to know him. And lo and behold: He actually is a rider for the cobbled races, where my team lacks at bit. And oh yeah - he was yet another underperforming INEOS23 rider. Should be able to reach +400 points. Top10 consensus pick?
FRIGO Marco (117): I don’t recall the particular races, but last year I saw several races in the spring, where Frigo showed real strength without getting any results from it. That’s where I noted him on my long list, and I’m pretty sure he won’t be picked by many (<10), but since I couldn’t shy away from Israel this year, I had to pick him as hopefully a rare-ish pick. Frigos strength will this year result in +300 points.
STEWART Jake (113): I know he’s going to be a leadout rider for guys like Ackermann and Vernon, but guaranteed leadership in the classics to go with it? For a fast, strong guy that sounds promising. Just one good semi-classic and he’s even, I think a 3-4 doubling should be doable.
STAUNE-MITTET Johannes (109): Another big talent I might be picking a year too soon. He’s already shown he can compete with the pros, and the youngsters at Visma actually get quite an amount of “ride your own chance”, despite the amount of big names on the team. He will build upon last year and hopefully get to 300 points.
VAN DIJKE Mick (105): Mick seems like the most talented twin of him and Tim, and I’m sure he’ll be back on track to be Vismas second sprinter after Kooij (WVA is another category, especially this year when setting GT sights). +300 points would be a natural progression.
PICCOLO Andrea (94): Let’s just forget 2023, shall we? Took the cycling World by storm in the Autumn of 2022, and apparently this little guy shows his premier skills in lumps. Let’s say we get two lumps this year, early spring and again in Autumn, ok? Then 500 points it is.
VALGREN HUNDAHL (ANDERSEN) Michael (89): A serious injury, almost a year out, but my countryman has shown his desire to be back at his best. Doesn’t excel at anything, but he has an instinct for the right racing moments. As much as a hope as a belief in him, but it’s nice to have a couple of Danes to cheer for in this game. +300 points
MOSCON Gianni (68): If Lefevre can’t perform his magic with Il Trattore, then no one can. When at his best, Moscon is flying, so hopefully the proven winning environment at Soudal-Quickstep can do wonders for the troubled Italian. I believe he’s not done yet. +400 points envisioned.
CHRISTEN Jan (59): A young talented guy already with a decent amount of pro racing in his legs. He wants to win races this year, and even though he’s on a loaded UAE team, we saw plenty of “support” riders get chances with the Arabian team’s massive calendar. 200 points would be a little upscale, so why not dream of more?
QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander (50): Okay, couldn’t really afford to leave him out. Noone knows how he’ll fare back at Movistar, but at least there should be plenty of chances to ride for himself, even though he might ride in the service of Mas in the biggest stage races. My guess is 400 points and the overall consensus pick for this year’s CQ game.
RYAN Archie (45): Seems like such a great talent, and even though I apparently have a thing for the EF riders this season, it’s also fun to have some up-and-coming riders to root for. Should get more chances to ride for GC riding for the American team than with Visma. +200 points is easily attainable.
WALLS Matthew (18): Didn’t race very much last season, and with the departure of Demare, Groupama looks like a team where the battle for first sprinter status is up for grabs. Should easily improve to 300+, and the ceiling is unknown, depending on how that battle turns out.
CAPIOT Amaury (10): I almost didn’t select him, as I wasn’t really vary of his problems last year. He was a great, versatile point scorer at Topsport and his first years at Arkea, so with a very rewarding French calendar I’m looking for a 400+ season for the Belgian.
Last omissions:
Sergio Higuita - I had him locked in for half a year, until Bora signed Roglic, who does everything Higuita does, but a tad better. We all know how much of a monster Rogla is, so unless he focuses solely on the TDF (which wouldn’t be like him), that diminishes the chances for Higuita to shine. Took Vauquelin instead, but will likely get to +800 points himself.
Fausto Masnada - Two years with problems, close to a career stop. I like his style, and hope for him to improve, but I had to cut budget somewhere to fit Vauquelin instead of Higuita - and it gave me the opportunity to select a rider for the spring classics (where my team lacks a bit), Jake Stewart. Should be able to reach 2-300 points.
Let's see if these two changes come back to haunt me. Last years last minute changes gave me +1000 points, the year before it gave a deficit. Here's to hoping it's not a pattern.
Good luck to all this year!
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