Okay, here's my team.
Will it be third time lucky with omitting the main popular expensive pick? Evenepoel screwed me in 2022, Roglic screwed me in 2023, but will Ayuso do the same this year? At least he's not as obvious as the two others. He's awesome and can win almost anything, but I'm slightly worried about him doing a full season, as he still rides with pain in his leg from the injury and there might be a slight risk of having to take more time off the bike. But there's good reason he's the obvious choice this year, of course.
Also, being fed up with the Bouhannis, Ackermanns, Alaphilippes, Ewans, Haigs, Honorés, Schachmanns, Moscons, Dumoulins and Buchmanns underperforming, I went with a very no-nonsense approach this year.
I present to you the team which doesn't have license to suck. Basically, if you don't have a very good excuse for sucking in 2023, you don't make the team.
I mentioned earlier that I switched out my most expensive rider because of some news about a week ago. I also said I'm not influenced by TDU startlist. But Jay Vine just had to go when he's not defending his Aussie summer points. I still think he can be great (Giro podium wouldn't surprise me) and I'm thoroughly surprised he's only picked twice, but without that 400 point head start he was just too risky with his crash-proneness etc.
For his replacement it was between Rodriguez, Pidcock and Mas (with Gregoire as an outsider). I landed on the one with the biggest upside but biggest risk. In the shuffle I also removed Kielich (shocked that he's a unique pick for
@Sneekes ) and got Faure Prost in. I'm a bit sad that I ended up with a 'mainstream' price for my most expensive pick, as I think it looks cool to have my most expensive pick being as cheap as possible.
PIDCOCK Thomas (891 points, 7 picks) - One of seven returnees from my unsuccessful 2023 team. Didn't score a single point post-Tour and his season before that wasn't seen as a resounding success either. Will have a more narrow focus on the things he's actually good at this year, and even if he doesn't do a good Tour GC there are so many Pidcock stages early on in the race. If he just equals his cost by the end of the Tour, he still has the very suitable Olympics (kinda expecting a DNF in the road race after the MTB), he should finally win the Tour of Britain and he'll be an idiot if he doesn't keep it going until Zürich. He might never get a Worlds course that's more suitable for him. At some point he should become a 2000 point rider, let's hope this is the year when it happens.
SHEFFIELD Magnus (573 points, 22 picks) - Positives: Half Norwegian, World class TT, sure to be selected for Olympics+Worlds, out of this world test numbers, crashed in every race in 2023. Negatives: Crashed in every race in 2023.
CARAPAZ MONTENEGRO Richard Antonio (496 points, 69 picks)
HAYTER Ethan (476 points, 45 picks)
POOLE Max (382 points, 16 picks) - Prime example of my new strategy. I have a lot of potential 2022 Skjelmoses on my team, and my thinking is that they're all more or less guaranteed to improve somewhat and not be a frustrating Bouhanni or Ackermann, and some of them will take a massive leap.
TIBERI Antonio (347 points, 15 picks) - Another example. Tiberi was one of the first riders I decided I was gonna take a bet on, and he's been in my team since I started working on it. Quietly becoming the GC star that he's been promising since juniors. He's taking aim at the Giro, and with the TT heavy, somewhat easy route and weak-ish competition, it could be a success story. And of course he has the toolset to score heavy in one-week races.
PLAPP Lucas (341 points, 40 picks)
HAGENES Per Strand (308 points, 20 picks) - Talked about him in a previous post. I'm a big believer, but he was a rather late inclusion due to the high price.
ONLEY Oscar (302 points, 17 picks) - If I'm betting on Poole, there's not really a good argument to not also go with Onley.
ARENSMAN Thymen (283 points, 64 picks)
MARTINEZ POVEDA Daniel Felipe (279 points, 60 picks)
BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley (262 points, 43 picks) - I can see why you wouldn't pick him. I also decided early that I was not taking him, but then I changed my mind. He already had the level last year to do a 600 point season with a different scheduleIf, but instead he went crazy with the GT race days in order to build for this season. And he crashed out of some good points in San Juan, too. Let's hope the 'hard miles' strategy works better for Bernal than for Froome.
SEGAERT Alec (198 points, 16 picks) - @Devil's Elbow asked if he can get enough points from TTs, associated GCs in easier races and attacks to make up for the absence of any sprint ability. I think he can. He also climbs surprisingly well. Lotto-Destiny have become good at cheesing a lot of points, and Segaert will probably help with that in easier stage races with a TT. He has looked like a force of nature for a couple of years now without really getting paid for it in big results.
FOSS Tobias Svendsen (197 points, 20 picks) - I guess no rule without exception. He doesn't really have great excuses for sucking in 2023. He has said he didn't find the correct training regimen. But he's only one year removed from a World TT gold, and Ineos are good at getting something out of their TT-ers. A potential disappointment, but also with lots of opportunities.
BUSATTO Francesco (186 points, 16 picks) - I'm really amused that
@EvansIsTheBest thought he could be a unique pick.
One of the first guys on my team sheet. Looks ready to mop up the points in smaller hilly races.
LECERF William Junior (182 points, 13 picks) - Had him last year and he did exactly the Benoot-like final U23 year that I expected. Tiny bit underwhelming in l'Avenir, but surprisingly good on more classics-like courses. Quickstep are really good at getting their neos to score a lot in easy races, too. Looking for a Vansevenant/Schmid type debut year from Lecerf.
PIGANZOLI Davide (177 points, 7 picks) - Also a youngster returning from my 2023 team. Showed a nice development last year, with his late-season Italian classics campaign being particularly impressive. He has good numbers and a good TT, and could maybe even be a Giro surprise. Someone like Mikhels or Turner might turn out better, but Piganzoli is a bit of a fanboy pick. I'd also say he's more likely to double points than Turner or Mikhels, but less likely to triple. I can see a Fortunato-like season coming.
VAN UDEN Casper (177 points, 9 picks) - Actually very underwhelming in 2023, but DSM seem to still believe, and he should have more freedom with the sprinter exodus that has happened there. He was very impressive as an U23 in 2022, so I'm hoping it's a case of an Ackermann-type development where he needs one year of learning among the pros. Together with Foss, he's the one who goes the most against my theme.
LAMPERTI Luke (176 points, 39 picks) - Partly because he might be a very good pick, and partly because I knew he was gonna be popular and it would have been risky not to. He is actually quite unproven against anyone decent, but I guess Quickstep is gonna Quickstep.
GLOAG Thomas (171 points, 33 picks) - His season ended when he got hit by a car in training, but according to some guy on Reddit he is all good despite no official news about him since then. Looked very impressive early season.
MASNADA Fausto (153 points, 10 picks) - Grande Fausto! I might have been swayed by Ilmaestro99.
OLDANI Stefano (136 points, 8 picks) - Really happy that he's so rare. I have a bit of a fetish for riders who can score heavy in the French calendar, and they don't always turn out the way I hope. But Oldani is cheap and has all the tools required.
MORGADO Antonio Tomas (132 points, 37 picks) - All three of the UAE youngsters are really more defensive picks for me. For some or all of them it could be a year too early, but they will all score big at some points, so I couldn't take the risk.
DEL TORO ROMERO Isaac (124 points, 47 picks)
STAUNE-MITTET Johannes (108 points, 53 picks)
RAFFERTY Darren (103 points, 26 picks) - A bit unsure about how pro-ready he is, but his U23 results are excellent, and I was especially convinced by him having a great TT too. Another case of carpet boming the talent pool for the new De Lie, I guess. That makes more of a difference than whether he scores 80 or 300, which could be the difference between a not-quite-ready neo-pro and a Honoré type pick.
VERGALLITO Luca (101 points, 6 picks) - Surprisingly rare.
CHRISTEN Jan (59 points, 36 picks)
QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander (50 points, 78 picks)
RYAN Archie (45 points, 56 picks) - Dodgy knees, but with what he has shown, it's worth the risk.
FAURE PROST Alexy (36 points, 14 picks)
LOOCKX Lander (23 points, 2 picks) - Devastated that he's not a unique pick. Damn you,
@Leadbelly !
Very excited about Loockx. Has been more of a hobby cyclocrosser with some occasional promising road results, but will now do road cycling full time with Tour de Tietema. Looks fast and strong, and could score very well with their calendar. But I might come to regret picking him over Magnier.
CAPIOT Amaury (10 points, 50 picks)
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