The 2025 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

[EvansIsTheBest]

Yeah Plapp's issue has never been scoring during the Australian summer. He' clearly the best rider at those national championships and anything less than domination would have been deeply concerning considering his track record in that event. It's what he does once racing returns to Europe that will make or break his season. I'd love to hear @skidmark's thoughts on including Tarling.

 

[repre]

Yeah Plapp's issue has never been scoring during the Australian summer. He' clearly the best rider at those national championships and anything less than domination would have been deeply concerning considering his track record in that event. It's what he does once racing returns to Europe that will make or break his season. I'd love to hear @skidmark's thoughts on including Tarling.

Plapp was close to score big in Europe couple of races last year and that's why he is semi-popular again this year even with stagnating scores for the three years. People who watch races know it's not lack of ability, but the pure luck.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

I remember this time last year discussions about how the most important riders in the game are not necessarily those that are the most expensive, not the most popular or rarest picks, but those on nearest to 50% of the teams. (obviously, at the end of the year, the most important are those that most over/under performed according to their cost, and were on the winning team but not the one that came second, but at this speculative stage...)

So I have applied to each selected rider a formula of (cost + 200) * (50-absolute(48-picks))
200 because that seems to be the minimum expected profit for a rider to be deemed successful, and so that freebies are not excluded entirely
48 because there are 96 teams, so that represents selection by half the players

I have then normalised the scores so that the apparently most relevant pick, whether he is in your team or not, is on a score of 100.


So the most important 20 riders by that calculation seem to be:

VINGEGAARD HANSEN Jonas	100.0​
VAN AERT Wout	80.8​
MAGNIER Paul	34.4​
GANNA Filippo	33.2​
NYS Thibau	28.9​
AYUSO PESQUERA Juan	28.0​
HAYTER Ethan	27.0​
NORDHAGEN Jørgen	24.5​
GALL Felix	23.1​
BEHRENS Niklas	22.0​
PITHIE Laurence	22.0​
LAFAY Victor	21.2​
HEALY Ben	20.7​
WIDAR Jarno	20.6​
YATES Simon	20.3​
PLAPP Lucas	20.0​
HINDLEY Jai	19.8​
CAVAGNA Rémi	18.8​
BAGIOLI Andrea	18.7​
JAKOBSEN Fabio	18.7​

So it looks like whether you have the correct Visma guy is definitely the key.

 

[ingsve]

The more I look at my team, the more I am convinced it's not quite good enough to be in the top10 this year.

I was skeptical of Yates, thinking that he was mainly going to be a domestique at Visma but now that it looks like he will be captain at the Giro and even at a bunch of one week races he doesn't seem as bad anymore. He still has to show the good form of the past though and he won't get the free points he has gotten from TDU the past years and I wonder if he is even going to defend his win in Alula Tour or whether he actually starts the season with Tirreno as it's listed now on PCS.

I personally don't have much hope for Jai Hindley though but anyone can have a resurgence I suppose.

 

[Earns1985]

Yeah Plapp's issue has never been scoring during the Australian summer. He' clearly the best rider at those national championships and anything less than domination would have been deeply concerning considering his track record in that event. It's what he does once racing returns to Europe that will make or break his season. I'd love to hear @skidmark's thoughts on including Tarling.

I never considered Tarling tbh. Also last year I didn´t understand, why he was so popular. I see him as a rider, who mostly scores in ITT. One day races in that discipline are very limited and the stage points for a win in an ITT in a stage race doesn´t count that much in this game.

For him, being a good pick at his price from 484, he has to convert in a rider who scores big either in cobble classics or in CG´s or even both. But I didn´t see that for this season, that he could be a good pick. If he doesn´t convert and stays as an ITT specialist he will get his 400-600 points this season, but not more..

 

[Shakes]

https://www.reddit.com/r/peloton/comments/1i1y6st/michel_hessmann_has_been_added_to_movistars_uci

View: https://www.reddit.com/r/peloton/comments/1i1y6st/michel_hessmann_has_been_added_to_movistars_uci/


I completely did not consider him ! Bad memory on my part as he could have been a steal (and Movistar seems to have no qualms getting convicted dopers).

 

[Netserk]

2. On doping

2.1. On ex-dopers
All riders are available to choose, except for riders who are provisionally suspended by the UCI (as of their most recent list).

Riders who have been suspended for doping and had that affect their 2024 score will not be available simply for their 2024 score. Instead, a rider’s value will be equivalent to that of his last full season; or, if he has more recently had a (not full, due to suspension) season in which he has earned more points, that season represents his value. Riders who have been suspended by the UCI (ie. Not merely provisionally suspended) are on this list.

While he isn't and wasn't on either list (at the relevant time), the reporting on his suspension has been mixed, so I think it was unclear if he was available.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

I think Tarling does still have a lot of potential although I decided against retaining him mainly because, like a lot of riders, he doesn't seem to be thrilled with life at Ineos. He seemed to have a race schedule last year which was aimed at giving him experience in different types of races rather than getting the best results but still looked capable of major points on the cobbles and was also climbing well in the Dauphine. I think on another team he'd be a points machine.

 

[Netserk]

While he isn't and wasn't on either list (at the relevant time), the reporting on his suspension has been mixed, so I think it was unclear if he was available.

The literal reading of the rules is that he was available because he wasn't provisionally suspended by the UCI at the time of the deadline, but instead was provisionally suspended by his NADO. If the latter is instead treated as equivalent to a provisional suspension by the UCI, then he wasn't available for this game.

 

[search]

The literal reading of the rules is that he was available because he wasn't provisionally suspended by the UCI at the time of the deadline, but instead was provisionally suspended by his NADO. If the latter is instead treated as equivalent to a provisional suspension by the UCI, then he wasn't available for this game.

difficult to say, as he is also still banned till March, although not on the UCI list.

So literally reading, he should be available, yeah. But not at 0 points, of course. More likely at 94.

 

[Anderis]

I was skeptical of Yates, thinking that he was mainly going to be a domestique at Visma but now that it looks like he will be captain at the Giro and even at a bunch of one week races he doesn't seem as bad anymore. He still has to show the good form of the past though and he won't get the free points he has gotten from TDU the past years and I wonder if he is even going to defend his win in Alula Tour or whether he actually starts the season with Tirreno as it's listed now on PCS.

I personally don't have much hope for Jai Hindley though but anyone can have a resurgence I suppose.

I saw room for huge improvement in Yates. His 2024 was already some 300-400 points below his average from the previous few years but he's moving to a better and more GT focused team (and it's the first team change in his entire pro career) so I can see a potential stimulus that would make him improve, just like his brother had the best season of his career right after he moved to UAE or how Laporte and Jorgenson exploded when joining Visma. Guess I was hoping this pattern would repeat with Simon and that he could even score some 1500-2000 points.
Perhaps there were riders out there more likely to bring some improvement but when you want to win, you just have to find someone who will make a very big step. I guess I liked the odds with Yates.

 

[Earns1985]

Beside from the two top most expensive picks (Vingegaard, van Aert) I think we have this year a really interesting distribution in the price range from 400+

I remember this time last year discussions about how the most important riders in the game are not necessarily those that are the most expensive, not the most popular or rarest picks, but those on nearest to 50% of the teams. (obviously, at the end of the year, the most important are those that most over/under performed according to their cost, and were on the winning team but not the one that came second, but at this speculative stage...)

So I have applied to each selected rider a formula of (cost + 200) * (50-absolute(48-picks))
200 because that seems to be the minimum expected profit for a rider to be deemed successful, and so that freebies are not excluded entirely
48 because there are 96 teams, so that represents selection by half the players

I have then normalised the scores so that the apparently most relevant pick, whether he is in your team or not, is on a score of 100.


So the most important 20 riders by that calculation seem to be:

VINGEGAARD HANSEN Jonas	100.0​
VAN AERT Wout	80.8​
MAGNIER Paul	34.4​
GANNA Filippo	33.2​
NYS Thibau	28.9​
AYUSO PESQUERA Juan	28.0​
HAYTER Ethan	27.0​
NORDHAGEN Jørgen	24.5​
GALL Felix	23.1​
BEHRENS Niklas	22.0​
PITHIE Laurence	22.0​
LAFAY Victor	21.2​
HEALY Ben	20.7​
WIDAR Jarno	20.6​
YATES Simon	20.3​
PLAPP Lucas	20.0​
HINDLEY Jai	19.8​
CAVAGNA Rémi	18.8​
BAGIOLI Andrea	18.7​
JAKOBSEN Fabio	18.7​

So it looks like whether you have the correct Visma guy is definitely the key.

Beside from the two top most expensive picks (Vingegaard, van Aert) I think we have this year a really interesting distribution in the price range from 400+. There are not a lot of very popular picks, but a lot of riders, who are picked between 10 and 25 times, which can make the difference for a player, who have them in their team.

van Aert	1259​	60​
Vingegaard	1760​	33​
Magnier	405​	37​
Ganna	644​	25​
Gall	459​	22​
Nys	702​	20​
Plapp	423​	20​
Hindley	553​	16​
Morgado	411​	16​
Penhoet	415​	15​
Pithie	689​	15​
HEALY	637​	15​
YATES S.	620​	15​
TARLING	484​	14​
CHRISTEN	547​	14​
PELLIZZARI	484​	12​
AYUSO	1276​	11​
LIPOWITZ	676​	11​
VINE	464​	11​
JOHANNESSEN	559​	10​