Okay, here’s an attempt to break down my team in earnest (part 1 because I ran out of time and can't stop myself when I'm indulging in rider analysis):
Remco Evenepoel (1929 points, 12 teams): Well. It felt like a good year to take a swing to win after last year’s caution got my my worst result in a dozen editions. Last year I backed off Vingegaard and settled for the cheaper Van Aert because I was worried about JV’s lack of versatility (ie only stage race points ever) and thought if he faced some trouble it’d severely limit his points, whereas WvA’s versatility would serve him well in both worst and best case scenarios. And then JV took off from March to June and was a better than fine pick, whereas WvA frustrated all season long (there are no extra CQ points for being brilliant enough one day to be the only person to drop Pogacar the whole season). You don’t want to fight yesterday’s battle, but you can’t help but think of it. And now I’m faced with someone slightly more expensive than JV but far more versatile, who didn’t drop Pogacar but actually passed him in the Worlds TT, well… you’ve got to take a look.
I actually realized that I’ve been discounting Remco’s greatness because of the fact that he’s overlapping his career with the actual GOAT. If the CQ game was around in the 60s-70s, I wouldn’t want Merckx’s existence to obscure the fact that Felice Gimondi was a top 10 all time talent, which it certainly did in the cultural consciousness. Gimondi after a good but down year would probably be a good pick! Remco is almost certainly a top 10 all time talent.
Anyway. There are a few considerations about Remco. He’s moved to a bigger team with a huge budget that wants to win. That team does have a fairly mixed history with maximizing talent, but his talent is among the biggest so it’s hard to screw up. Also, he’s just turning 26 this month. He’s been around for awhile due to his precociousness, but theoretically this is the time he develops consistency and enters his prime. He’s also coming off two injured/limited seasons, and has two earlier ones (2020 and 21) to make his career totals look less impressive, numbers-wise. And there’s something to consider about someone who always runs into those troubles, but generally I think you’ve got to approach this game with the attitude that your rider is going to have a full and normal season, while hedging for a decent return even if they have some unexpected snags. In the last 4 years Remco has averaged 44.9 CQ points per race day (with a surprisingly tight range of 42.9 to 46.6 depending on the year), so in a 60 day season he’d get about 2700. That’s fine but not game winning on its own. If he progresses and levels up, which is certainly possible due to age and team resources, I think his range is 3300-4000, which would be a fantastic return at this cost. So we’ll see.
Paul Seixas (661, 73): All the paragraphs I used above to justify Remco wouldn’t be necessary if he cost a third of his price, so that’s mostly all I gotta say about Seixas. His age 18 season was actually I think more impressive than Remco’s 2019, even if he had fewer CQ points. He finished 8th in the Dauphine at 18, which is bonkers – Evenepoel’s only real WT stage race at age 18 was Romandie where he was a non-factor. And then Seixas was 13th at one of the hardest Worlds ever, top 10 Lombardia, podium at a hard Euros behind only Pogi and Remco… jaw dropping stuff. Definitely potential to be the best French rider since Hinault, and I wouldn’t be shocked by anything up to a top 5 in the Tour in 2026.
Albert Philipsen (459, 44): Any other year we’d be talking about him the most as an 18 year old. His points came more at the .PS level than the .WT level, but he proved he could hold his own. Doubling his points would not surprise.
Thibau Nys (423, 46): My riskiest pick last year, and it did not pay off. Still, I think my reasoning was sound – he’s got such an insane kick, and winning upside is so huge in the CQ game since 1st place points are so skewed over any other place. I do worry that his talent may only come out selectively (ie his teammates talk him up as the greatest thing since sliced bread which is dissonant with his race results, so is he a training camp wonder?), but I’m willing to give him a chance after a stupidly managed 2025. He had a few illnesses in the spring, but after Tour of Belgium he was sick and the team rushed him into the Tour while he wasn’t recovered, so in his first ever GT he rode around for 21 days destroying himself for the rest of the season while not threatening to collect points. This year’s gotta be better.
Maxim Van Gils (362, 58): Easy pick, too many crashes and sickness. Although I’ve gotta say, looking at him and Pithie and Martinez and Vlasov and a few others made me worry there’s some kinda Red Bull curse going on.
Lennert Van Eetvelt (302, 68): He had a lot of bad luck with a broken foot early in the season and a crash at Belgian nationals… in 2024 he had some bad luck too, but got 999 points in 37 riding days then. I wasn’t clear on how well recovered he was, but seeing him on the startlist of TdU was enough to convince me he’s good enough to ride.
Matej Mohoric (290, 28): His results have bopped around, and he’s a bit high variance, but he seems to have just not had the right balance in 2025, like great form but pushed too hard in training and got sick, and then crashed at the wrong time in high-stakes races, etc. So the talent’s there, and he’s still in his age 31 season. His mean score the last 9 years has been over 750 points, and his median 650, so if he gets back to some semblance of normal he’ll be a solid pick. Definitely thought about switching him out several times though!
Christophe Laporte (273, 59): Always a concern when an immune-related issue takes a rider down, but his blazing 20 days of racing at the end of last year was proof of concept that he still is great. 252 points were in his last 7 days of racing, so he’s got a fire to get back on top.
Benoit Cosnefroy (268, 64): Coming off a year with 13 race days is enough reason to pick him; becoming the new Ulissi at the winningest team that ever did win is just a massive cherry on top. Yes please.
Carlos Rodriguez (262, 71): Poor guy, rough year. He might be slipping down the pecking order at Ineos, but I am pretty sure my guy can still super-dom and top 10 GTs so I’m not too worried at this price.
Jarno Widar (245, 69): I’d venture to say he’s the biggest talent neo-pro this year, not the most consistent but on the bulk of it he should deliver enough GC success to double or triple his points.
Kevin Vermaerke (219, 18): I didn’t really know much about him coming into this cycle but looking at his results, I really liked his versatility and consistency, so I was intrigued. Thinking about how that would fit with UAE, which is the new QuickStep for unlocking point-scoring abilities in riders, was also enticing. Reading interviews where both him and his team said they’d really like to get him his first pro win was even more exciting. I feel like he might be a young Wellens, helping his galacticos without issue (and placing highly while doing so) and endearing himself to his teammates enough that they’re excited to help when he gets his chances.
Max Poole (215, 60): He was in my first iteration of the team when I had like 20 wish list riders, because of his demonstrated potential and the fact that he’d be LNL’s default GC guy with Onley bailing. But then I realized that I couldn’t afford all the riders I wanted if I had Remco, so he went out on the concern that a) his big season in 2024 was juiced by Langkawi and b) more importantly, he’s coming back from Epstein-Barr which is slightly less tricky to forecast than iliac artery issues but still has the potential to wreck multiple seasons. Ultimately went back in when I was like ‘do I really want Gerben Thijssen and Alexander Kristoff’s brother that much or can I drop them for Poole and Behrens or something’ and figured I’d be happier with that as my second last team swap out. We’ll see.
Adria Pericas (162, 25): I was pretty meh on his results and knew little of him, but then digging into some deeper material, it seems that UAE believes in his talent with the long contract they’ve given him. And then I read about how their plan is to ease him into the pros by putting him in a bunch of small Spanish races so he can build confidence and results, and sure enough his calendar is full of Spanish flags and names of races I strain to recognize. UAE, I should know better than to ever doubt your ability to farm points. Looking through the multi-year signing commitments UAE have given to youngsters, Torres in 2025 is really the only one who hasn’t been in the 350-1000 point range the next year, so I’ll trust their process as a tie-breaker when there are few other reliable choices at this price.
Axel Zingle (155, 65): Gawd, what a horror year in 2025. He dislocated his shoulder in a crash in Itzulia, then fractured a vertebrae in a crash in Dunkirk, then dislocated both(!!) shoulders in a crash in the Vuelta, and ended up with 28 race days to show for it. I mean, the ease of injury is a little worrying, but on the face of it I’ve gotta believe it’s just a horrible cluster of luck.
Maxime Decomble (152, 35): Nothing blew me away, but he had some good results, is a good TTer and climber, and managed to hang onto the Avenir lead until the very end against the best Avenir field ever assembled before finally succumbing on the last day. Should be able to score some good GC points with high upside from lower level French races if he gets put in some.
After this it got pretty uninspired with the team selection, I’ve gotta say. Great preview for part 2 (which I'll post tomorrow because I'm a completest), lol.
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