The 3 GT and 7 one-week races.

[VayaVayaVaya]

Pogacar will get there for sure. Vingegaard I put at 50/50. I could see him retiring on the early side. I hear his house needs some updating. All it would take for Roglic to close this out would be for Pogacar to get injured (not hoping for that, to be clear), Vingegaard to ride the Giro, Remco to get his form/prep wrong (he also has own challenges staying on his bike), and Roglic to show up and stay on his bike. OK that’s a lot of things, but not impossible! I don’t see Remco doing it.

 

[AmRacer]

Pogacar will get there for sure. Vingegaard I put at 50/50. I could see him retiring on the early side. I hear his house needs some updating. All it would take for Roglic to close this out would’ve for Pogacar to get injured (not hoping for that, to be clear), Vingegaard to ride the Giro, Remco to get his for wrong, and Roglic to show up and stay on his bike. OK that’s a lot of things, but not impossible! I don’t see Remco doing it.

Jonas lost a few wins the last two seasons, but can still make it next year.

 

[Netserk]

He didn't care, but as soon as he won Tirreno-Adriatico and Basque Country, the following year he scheduled Paris-Nice and Catalunya (he ultimately didn't go). Of course he wants.

up for a bet on whether he rides in france or italy this march?

 

[Salvarani]

I get what you are saying but I think this is because we see Pogi as more a stage racer than one day racer. Plus, like I said, he isn't young any more and should win the Vuelta while it appears easy. Jonas just did that. The hardest stage race left to win missing from Pogačar's palmeres is the Vuelta of course.

If he finishes his career with MSR and PR but never wins a Vuelta I think that would be a shame. If he wins the Vuelta but never wins MSR and PR no biggie as he isn't physically suited to these races anyway. And to anyone who is objective (thinking about the physical demands) a grand tour is always a bigger achievement than any classic or monument.

But I also know it isn't what I think but what Pogačar wants. If he prefers as you say and can win those races without ever winning a Vuelta then good for him.



Why, because he won't recover? 2024 tells me otherwise. After completing the Giro-Tour double he continued winning including the triple crown (worlds) and then Lombardy along with some one day races in between. And we all recall saying how he said he was dead after the Tour. Didn't slow him. He also didn't get sick which is what usually happens when riders have insufficient recovery.

On the table, he only has to win Itzulia (April), Romandie (early May) and Suisse (June) and then Vuelta (Aug/Sep), The first three are spaced out he has plenty of time to recover and can win those without being 100% anyway so he should not destroy himself.

He raced very light in the spring of 2024 and no cobbles. He faced weak competition in the Giro.

It is not the same.

You also dont factor in the prep he does for the classics and specifically the cobbles. His weight and whatnot. It is not like he is showing up for one day and then he goes onto the next. It is weeks and days of preparation for each race.

Then he doesnt take much time off... to prepare for Tour, where he faces the toughest competition possible. Account for all the extra circus around the Tour as well.

He got to take a couple of weeks off after Tour... he cant do that if going straight to the Vuelta. He would be spent trying to go for Worlds if not already being bad in Vuelta.

Im puzzled how you cant follow the logic here or thinks it is feasible to target classics (all four monuments in the spring), Tour, Vuelta, Worlds and probably Lombardia in the same season.

A season where he includes Vuelta is where he doesnt do classics and where worlds is on a course that doesnt suit him. IMO. Because he cant simply do everything in one season and I dont see how logically that can happen or be a good idea.

Then there is the moment or last option where something unforeseen happens, which alters plans and Vuelta becomes an afterthought.

Otherwise... classics, Tour + worlds is priority this season. Vuelta likely not this year given his current schedule. Maybe some time soon though, but that depends on what he has done before and what happens during the year. Everything not set in stone.

 

[Unterlenkerfahrend]

Pogacar loves Flanders, it's probably his favorite race and with his current schedule (going for PR and focussing on the classics in general) I don't think he is going to do Itzulia soon.
Having said this, once he gets the Vuelta and now that Suisse has become a joke and he'll already grab it this year he'll probably go for it at some point and do Romandie as well to complete the set.
I'd put him ending up with all races at like 75%.

Vingegaard cares about the 3 GTs hence going for the Giro but I don't think he gives a *** about the importance of one week races. He prefers family time and will probably retire in 3-4 years anyway. Having said this if all goes to plan he might just complete PN, Catalunya and Giro (basically like Pogacar 2024) this year by default and than he would only miss Suisse, which again, begs the question if it still even counts.

No one else will come close. Roglic obviously missed the window regarding the Tour and the rest is not good enough. Almeida might collect a lot more one week races in Klöden style but all 3 GTs are incredibly unlikely.

 

[Salvarani]

I would be surprised if Vinge races after 2028. Especially if he has ticked off all three GTs.

 

[Cookster15]

Im puzzled how you cant follow the logic here or thinks it is feasible to target classics (all four monuments), Tour, Vuelta, Worlds and probably Lombardia in the same season.

Spring of 2024 he won SB, and LBL, coming 3rd at MSR. No cobbles but I don't think we can say he raced very light before the Giro?

Yes, the 2024 Giro was weak competition but it was still three weeks of racing at the fastest average speed in history.

I just think you under estimate Pogacar's recovery. One day races, even the prep simply isn't as demanding on the body as grand tours. That is why nobody did the Giro-Tour double in 26 years before 2024. And as I said, I am referring to stage races in the table. The only races missing are Itzulia, Romandie, Swiss and Vuelta. Easy peasy IMO, but it gets iffy if he waits too long.

And on the bold, who said he should target all four monuments in the same season - not me? That is more unrealistic than trying to win a mere Vuelta which IMO he could do without going deep? At least in the next year or two he should attempt the Vuelta before risking when he might begin to physically decline. It happens to all of us.

 

[hayneplane]

up for a bet on whether he rides in france or italy this march?

Hopefully Jonas to PN and Matteo to TA for both to try and win the races they don’t yet have on their palmares.

 

[Netserk]

Hopefully Jonas to PN and Matteo to TA for both to try and win the races they don’t yet have on their palmares.

the pokemon meme is delayed, even in funny ice vids. im fairly confident for the opposite to be the case.

 

[Salvarani]

Spring of 2024 he won SB, and LBL, coming 3rd at MSR. No cobbles but I don't think we can say he raced very light before the Giro?

Yes, the 2024 Giro was weak competition but it was still three weeks of racing at the fastest average speed in history.

I just think you under estimate Pogacar's recovery. One day races, even the prep simply isn't as demanding on the body as grand tours. That is why nobody did the Giro-Tour double in 26 years before 2024. And as I said, I am referring to stage races in the table. The only races missing are Itzulia, Romandie, Swiss and Vuelta. Easy peasy IMO, but it gets iffy if he waits too long.

And on the bold, who said he should target all four monuments in the same season - not me? That is more unrealistic than trying to win a mere Vuelta which IMO he could do without going deep? At least in the next year or two he should attempt the Vuelta before risking when he might begin to physically decline. It happens to all of us.

It was light and not doing cobbles is what made the difference. Preparation-wise and what the body has to endure racing them. You completely seem to overlook this and Im not underestimating his recovery. That he can even attempt this type of schedule, as last year, is only because of it.

Im just saying he probably wont attempt the Vuelta this year, because of the schedule he is undertaking with the classics and the Tour. His decision. Doing Vuelta this year wouldnt be good idea imo. It is just too much and very risky if he has to pay the debt physically/mentally.

It also makes sense to try and win the classics now. He seems to prioritize it more than the Vuelta. So if Vuelta is the "only" thing he has to sacrifice to be able to attempt every other major race on the calendar, then so be it.

Vuelta can be the last thing to tick off, if it comes to that. Because that will often not have the best field... as most other top riders are riding Tour and it is often second-rated GC guys or younger riders there. So even if getting older and "declining" he could still win that.

Schedule where he can do Vuelta...

MSR-LBL-Tour-Vuelta-(Worlds-Lombardia)
MSR-LBL-Giro-Vuelta-(Worlds-Lombardia)

Basically just skip the classics (cobbles) and he could attempt Vuelta. Then choose to have Worlds and Lombardia. Skip either or both if wanting to call season after Vuelta.

Or classics + Vuelta + (Worlds-Lombardia)

Crashing out of Tour and having to abandon could also be a launch for Vuelta attempt.

Otherwise, I see him wanting to win MSR and PR... as those two may be the hardest for him to win. I also salute that decision. Make sense to give everything to win them now and it is just fun to see him race against MVDP. They both seem to enjoy that. Do whats fun, because that can also provide longevity. Because I dont really think he finds GT-racing very fun, he is just very good at it.

 

[AmRacer]

Spring of 2024 he won SB, and LBL, coming 3rd at MSR. No cobbles but I don't think we can say he raced very light before the Giro?

Yes, the 2024 Giro was weak competition but it was still three weeks of racing at the fastest average speed in history.

I just think you under estimate Pogacar's recovery. One day races, even the prep simply isn't as demanding on the body as grand tours. That is why nobody did the Giro-Tour double in 26 years before 2024. And as I said, I am referring to stage races in the table. The only races missing are Itzulia, Romandie, Swiss and Vuelta. Easy peasy IMO, but it gets iffy if he waits too long.

And on the bold, who said he should target all four monuments in the same season - not me? That is more unrealistic than trying to win a mere Vuelta which IMO he could do without going deep? At least in the next year or two he should attempt the Vuelta before risking when he might begin to physically decline. It happens to all of us.

2018 Froome and Dumoulin

Pogi wants to win MSR and PR, so he will continue racing them.

 

[Tanakka]

If he finishes his career with MSR and PR but never wins a Vuelta I think that would be a shame. If he wins the Vuelta but never wins MSR and PR no biggie as he isn't physically suited to these races anyway. And to anyone who is objective (thinking about the physical demands) a grand tour is always a bigger achievement than any classic or monument.

No.

If the argument is:
a career with one GT vs. a career with one, idk, LBL
Like Jay Hindley vs Bob Jungels
it would be one thing.

But here we are talking about a guy who already has 4 TdFs (+two 2°) and a Giro.
It's a completely different scenario.
For Pogi, winning P-R would add way more to his legacy than winning an ugly sister GT during the late 2020s.
Most likely MSR too.

 

[vappaxbipmv]

It was light and not doing cobbles is what made the difference. Preparation-wise and what the body has to endure racing them. You completely seem to overlook this and Im not underestimating his recovery. That he can even attempt this type of schedule, as last year, is only because of it.

Im just saying he probably wont attempt the Vuelta this year, because of the schedule he is undertaking with the classics and the Tour. His decision. Doing Vuelta this year wouldnt be good idea imo. It is just too much and very risky if he has to pay the debt physically/mentally.

It also makes sense to try and win the classics now. He seems to prioritize it more than the Vuelta. So if Vuelta is the "only" thing he has to sacrifice to be able to attempt every other major race on the calendar, then so be it.

Vuelta can be the last thing to tick off, if it comes to that. Because that will often not have the best field... as most other top riders are riding Tour and it is often second-rated GC guys or younger riders there. So even if getting older and "declining" he could still win that.

Schedule where he can do Vuelta...

MSR-LBL-Tour-Vuelta-(Worlds-Lombardia)
MSR-LBL-Giro-Vuelta-(Worlds-Lombardia)

Basically just skip the classics (cobbles) and he could attempt Vuelta. Then choose to have Worlds and Lombardia. Skip either or both if wanting to call season after Vuelta.

Or classics + Vuelta + (Worlds-Lombardia)

Crashing out of Tour and having to abandon could also be a launch for Vuelta attempt.

Otherwise, I see him wanting to win MSR and PR... as those two may be the hardest for him to win. I also salute that decision. Make sense to give everything to win them now and it is just fun to see him race against MVDP. They both seem to enjoy that. Do whats fun, because that can also provide longevity. Because I dont really think he finds GT-racing very fun, he is just very good at it.

I don't quite agree. I think it's possible to do classics and Tour + Vuelta + WC + Lombardia. But it would require a bare minimum before the Tour. 4 monuments, 1 stage race as a preparation and nothing else. So something like:
MSR, RVV, P-R, LBL, Dauphine/Suisse/Slovenia, Tour, Vuelta, WC, Lombardia. I think that's doable, around 53-56 race days. Hard? Absolutely. Could be done? I think so

 

[Salvarani]

I don't quite agree. I think it's possible to do classics and Tour + Vuelta + WC + Lombardia. But it would require a bare minimum before the Tour. 4 monuments, 1 stage race as a preparation and nothing else. So something like:
MSR, RVV, P-R, LBL, Dauphine/Suisse/Slovenia, Tour, Vuelta, WC, Lombardia. I think that's doable, around 53-56 race days. Hard? Absolutely. Could be done? I think so

I disagree and it would be speed-run to burning-out/early decline. Likely paying the debt for going through that physically/mentally afterwards. All his rivals should wish for such an attempt.

And I already covered the amount of race days argument... you are not considering the preparation time for each of these races, outside of the actual race days. It leaves little time for anything else other then preparing for hard races (which is not easy) and then actually racing them. It wouldnt be fun and I doubt it would be good at all.

It would be a foolish act. IMO.

 

[James M]

No.

If the argument is:
a career with one GT vs. a career with one, idk, LBL
Like Jay Hindley vs Bob Jungels
it would be one thing.

But here we are talking about a guy who already has 4 TdFs (+two 2°) and a Giro.
It's a completely different scenario.
For Pogi, winning P-R would add way more to his legacy than winning an ugly sister GT during the late 2020s.
Most likely MSR too.

I agree with this entirely context matters. In a vacuum, if you put a GT and a monument up against each other with zero other wins on your palmares, GT is bigger sure. Both things can be true, just for different reasons imo.

For Pogs sake, there can be zero doubt that a PR would far, far outweigh a Vuelta. Cmon now its not even close.

 

[Berniece]

I agree with this entirely context matters. In a vacuum, if you put a GT and a monument up against each other with zero other wins on your palmares, GT is bigger sure. Both things can be true, just for different reasons imo.

For Pogs sake, there can be zero doubt that a PR would far, far outweigh a Vuelta. Cmon now its not even close.

I agree, and also in my opinion, 5 monuments outweigh 3 GT’s.

Winning 3 GT’s is more of the same, while winning 5 monuments is much more diverse. Doing both is only Merckx?

 

[hayneplane]

Could a Giro-Tour-Vuelta triple be feasible if you just started the season at LBL. If you added WC and Lombardia at the end that would be 66 race days with the chance to take a winter rest and ramp up from January in training camps.

 

[hayneplane]

I agree, and also in my opinion, 5 monuments outweigh 3 GT’s.

Winning 3 GT’s is more of the same, while winning 5 monuments is much more diverse. Doing both is only Merckx?

Agreed. The range of talents needed to win all 5 monuments is far greater as there is less of an individual character to each grand tour.

Conversely winning multiple monuments in a single season is far far easier than winning multiple grand tours.

 

[Salvarani]

Could a Giro-Tour-Vuelta triple be feasible if you just started the season at LBL. If you added WC and Lombardia at the end that would be 66 race days with the chance to take a winter rest and ramp up from January in training camps.

I don’t think so. Nor would I believe someone would want to do that, who is riding all for GC. Trying to win all three in the same year. Foolish.

 

[vappaxbipmv]

I disagree and it would be speed-run to burning-out/early decline. Likely paying the debt for going through that physically/mentally afterwards. All his rivals should wish for such an attempt.

And I already covered the amount of race days argument... you are not considering the preparation time for each of these races, outside of the actual race days. It leaves little time for anything else other then preparing for hard races (which is not easy) and then actually racing them. It wouldnt be fun and I doubt it would be good at all.

It would be a foolish act. IMO.

I understand the race day argument very well, I just said it as an information, nothing else

In my view, the scenarios you suggested are way too simple, it's basically "start your year at the Tour (or even Vuelta)". UAE will not agree with any schedule that doesn't have either the Tour or heavy classics schedule. He can't do easy classics and skip the Tour later
In 2024, he did Strade, MSR, Catalunya and LBL, followed by Giro + Tour, which in my opinion is a lot harder. Because you basically have 0 rest between Strade (early March) and end of Tour (late July), that's almost 5 months and you finish with the Tour, the hardest race. And we've already seen that he can do classics + Tour. What I'm suggesting can give you rest after LBL and if he really can win the Vuelta with one leg (as some here are suggesting), using it as a prep for WC and Lombardia shouldn't be too difficult

 

[Salvarani]

I understand the race day argument very well, I just said it as an information, nothing else

In my view, the scenarios you suggested are way too simple, it's basically "start your year at the Tour (or even Vuelta)". UAE will not agree with any schedule that doesn't have either the Tour or heavy classics schedule. He can't do easy classics and skip the Tour later
In 2024, he did Strade, MSR, Catalunya and LBL, followed by Giro + Tour, which in my opinion is a lot harder. Because you basically have 0 rest between Strade (early March) and end of Tour (late July), that's almost 5 months and you finish with the Tour, the hardest race. And we've already seen that he can do classics + Tour. What I'm suggesting can give you rest after LBL and if he really can win the Vuelta with one leg (as some here are suggesting), using it as a prep for WC and Lombardia shouldn't be too difficult

You must not have read my posts. Read them again. Because I didnt say that and gave suggestions on schedules that may work. Including only the major races. Stuff can/will be added outside.

But as been pointed out, Pog wants to race the classics for now. And as long as Tour is also on his schedule as well, combining those, then likely… or he shouldnt be racing Vuelta. IMO.

He cant rest after LBL if Tour is on his schedule. He has to start preparing.

Do you follow?

It is only my perspective. But I do think I am right.

 

[Cycling111]

Of course Pogačar won't have any trouble winning the missing races if he chooses to. The only question is will he do that before Roglič and Vingegaard? The Vuelta is the toughest. I keep saying at 27 this year he isn't young any more and should target the Vuelta whilst it is still a gimme. And because the Vuelta is after the Tour it does not risk the Tour.

Itzulia and Romandie look easy for Pogačar when he wants them. He was easily beating Jonas at P-N in 2023. It was the Tour which was the problem, not now or at least before he begins to physically decline. Suisse should be ticked off by Pogačar this year as he is scheduled to race that for the first time.

As for the competition, I think I would eliminate Roglič now - whilst he has the least gaps to fill, he is past his best and is not going to win the TdF now. So that leaves Jonas. Jonas looks a strong favorite to win this years Giro. But the other week long stage races (P-N, Catalunya, Romandie and Suisse) I would only see him win if Pogi wasn't racing, and even then that is no guarantee against riders like SYates, Almeida and Ayuso - even Remco.

Pogacar is no longer young, but we keep reading messages that Remco is and has to progress, even though he is only a year and four months younger and debuted in PRO the same year.

 

[Cycling111]

Pogacar loves Flanders, it's probably his favorite race and with his current schedule (going for PR and focussing on the classics in general) I don't think he is going to do Itzulia soon.
Having said this, once he gets the Vuelta and now that Suisse has become a joke and he'll already grab it this year he'll probably go for it at some point and do Romandie as well to complete the set.
I'd put him ending up with all races at like 75%.

Vingegaard cares about the 3 GTs hence going for the Giro but I don't think he gives a *** about the importance of one week races. He prefers family time and will probably retire in 3-4 years anyway. Having said this if all goes to plan he might just complete PN, Catalunya and Giro (basically like Pogacar 2024) this year by default and than he would only miss Suisse, which again, begs the question if it still even counts.

No one else will come close. Roglic obviously missed the window regarding the Tour and the rest is not good enough. Almeida might collect a lot more one week races in Klöden style but all 3 GTs are incredibly unlikely.

I think the decision to go to Switzerland is more related to Urska than to completing those races.
It's not being taken into account that this year the TDS will be will be held on the same days as the women's race.for the first time. I'm sure Urska will do the TDS.

 

[AmRacer]

Could a Giro-Tour-Vuelta triple be feasible if you just started the season at LBL. If you added WC and Lombardia at the end that would be 66 race days with the chance to take a winter rest and ramp up from January in training camps.

Ask GC Kuss

 

[Salvarani]

Ask GC Kuss

He rode Giro and Tour as a dom. Also then got lucky to gain advantage in the Vuelta. Sure, he was quite strong to pull it off but it was convenient that the strongest riders in the race was his teammates. Who the team told to knock it off and forbid to ride him out of the jersey.

Stars alinging like that for someone like Kuss will rarely happen.

And he found it hard the following season. Maybe feeling the effects from the efforts. You pay the debt at some point if you overextend. For him it might have been worth it as it was once in a lifetime… but for someone else it might be effects that become irriversible and you dont reach your best level again. It is playing with fire.