Teams & Riders The Big 6

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Lurkerman

Lurkerman

Oct 7, 2025
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I think the idea of the big six (from spring 2023) was that it was a small group of riders where, if only one of them started the race, you just knew (that is, pretty much 100 %) in advance that he'd win (or gift the race to Laporte). Important to keep this in mind in case someone tries to update the group at some point. So right now it can't be merely the big one only because MVDP would also need to be in it (as you can't find a group of riders who you know'll always beat MVDP on the big scene since MVDP literally wins big). Logically, if you put all professional riders in the group, it'd work in the same way but simply be the big peloton, so the art is to try and keep the group small
 
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VayaVayaVaya

Jun 1, 2015
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@Lurkerman I guess if I had to narrow it down based on that criteria, you'd have to go with a Big 3, as much as it pains me to admit it:
  1. Pogacar will win any GT and Monument outside of maybe P-R, MSR, and certain Worlds/Oly courses
  2. MVdP will, I think, win P-R and be top 2 favorite in MSR and certain Worlds/Oly courses
  3. Remco will win any championship ITT
The others (or mostly even each other) will likely not beat those 3 in any of their realm of dominance (Roglic might beat Remco in a GT, for example, but he will not beat him at a championship ITT even though he won the Olympics in 2020). However, I'd probably go with the Big 5 in place of the Big 6. The next two most logical are:
  1. Vingegaard will win any GT that Pogacar is not in.
  2. Roglic will win any one-week stage race that Pogacar is not in. Tough year, but until he truly fails hard at a targeted race when he isn't injured, I'm keeping him in.
I love Wout, but he is out. His win in Paris shows he still has it in him when healthy, but it's been too long without a big classics win. Mads doesn't actually win any of his targets, so he is out. Del Toro folded so badly in the Giro that it can't possibly balance out the other good things he did this year, plus he didn't win anything big. Lipowitz definitely not there, Onley not there, Seixas, etc.

I think there is an >80% chance of at least one of the following happening though:
  1. Del Toro breaks into the Big 6
  2. Wout restores his place in the Big 6
  3. Roglic drops out of the Big 6
 
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peterfin

Feb 24, 2020
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Lurkerman said:
I think the idea of the big six (from spring 2023) was that it was a small group of riders where, if only one of them started the race, you just knew (that is, pretty much 100 %) in advance that he'd win (or gift the race to Laporte). Important to keep this in mind in case someone tries to update the group at some point. So right now it can't be merely the big one only because MVDP would also need to be in it (as you can't find a group of riders who you know'll always beat MVDP on the big scene since MVDP literally wins big). Logically, if you put all professional riders in the group, it'd work in the same way but simply be the big peloton, so the art is to try and keep the group small
Click to expand...
We should refine the definition: a rider is considered part of the "Big X" if he wins almost everytime when he starts and he is in shape and no other one of this group is present in either road races or a stage races (or both) considering that the race is a target to win (e.g. not a bunch sprint race where he helps a team mate for example).

All of the current list were in the group a year or two ago. Today it looks like we are down to 4 (Pogi, Vingegaard, MVDP Remco) and Del Toro is a candidate to join the group.
 
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greyclouds

Sep 8, 2021
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peterfin said:
We should refine the definition: a rider is considered part of the "Big X" if he wins almost everytime when he starts and he is in shape and no other one of this group is present in either road races or a stage races (or both) considering that the race is a target to win (e.g. not a bunch sprint race where he helps a team mate for example).

All of the current list were in the group a year or two ago. Today it looks like we are down to 4 (Pogi, Vingegaard, MVDP Remco) and Del Toro is a candidate to join the group.
Click to expand...
At this moment I would also go with the Big 4.

Del Toro is a candidate but no more than that, after all he only has one WT win this year.
 
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Lurkerman

Lurkerman

Oct 7, 2025
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Krzysztof_O said:
When it comes to wins in top races against the biggest rivals it's basically Big2 now. Pogacar wins most of big races he enters (10 (!) out of last 13 attempts in 2024-2025) and when he loses it's only because of MVP (in two spring monuments).
Click to expand...
I like this way of looking at it as a big 2, with MVDP showing this year that he's final obstacle for Pog to completely dominate the big scene. Who knows for how long this can last, though, and so maybe next year already there's just a big one in cycling who wins all five monuments and TdF? I think that's something the "big 6" notion from 2023 captured early, the decrease in size of the group of riders who can realistically win monuments or TDF (when races progress with sufficient "normality", at least). In 2025, this is still the tendency, with probably an even smaller group of riders only (in 2023, at least, there was still excitement to see Pog and Evenepoel do a good LBL against each other + Vingegaard was defending TdF champ). So whilst you can always rank the six best active riders in the world, there might not always be a "big n"-group for some small number. My personal preference or hope is that we exit the "big n"-era and have Colbrelli-Mohoric-van Baarle type characters win the occasional monuments again, though I'm not sure that's gonna happen anytime soon
 
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Krzysztof_O

Krzysztof_O

Jul 7, 2013
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Lurkerman said:
I like this way of looking at it as a big 2, with MVDP showing this year that he's final obstacle for Pog to completely dominate the big scene. Who knows for how long this can last, though, and so maybe next year already there's just a big one in cycling who wins all five monuments and TdF? I think that's something the "big 6" notion from 2023 captured early, the decrease in size of the group of riders who can realistically win monuments or TDF (when races progress with sufficient "normality", at least). In 2025, this is still the tendency, with probably an even smaller group of riders only (in 2023, at least, there was still excitement to see Pog and Evenepoel do a good LBL against each other + Vingegaard was defending TdF champ). So whilst you can always rank the six best active riders in the world, there might not always be a "big n"-group for some small number. My personal preference or hope is that we exit the "big n"-era and have Colbrelli-Mohoric-van Baarle type characters win the occasional monuments again, though I'm not sure that's gonna happen anytime soon
Click to expand...

Yeah, it's really Big2. If you allow for one rider superior in particular type of races it's Big4 (with Evenepoel and Vingegaard). Nothing suggests Pogacar and MVP will slow down next year so I still think MVP is by far the most likely to beat Pogacar in the biggest races. Maybe Evenepoel can make Liege (or WC) somewhat competitive but it's to be seen. Vingegaard at the Tour, similarly to Evenepoel, first has to prove he can be on par with Pogacar nowadays.
 
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