The Cav SKY drama

[PCutter]

Sky will probably assume GE will do the chase work for them on any stage they (GE) don't put someone in the break, so can save some work there until the last couple of km's.

If Sky are as smart as they tell people they are, they should be able to achieve podium and green jersey. Davitamon-Lotto achieved Green and 4th place in 2006 with a much weaker team than Sky will put together. So if Wiggins is good enough, he should be able to podium. Can he win with Cav in the team, probably not, but I don't think he could win if Cav wasn't in the team either.

 

[42x16ss]

Sky will probably assume GE will do the chase work for them on any stage they (GE) don't put someone in the break, so can save some work there until the last couple of km's.

If Sky are as smart as they tell people they are, they should be able to achieve podium and green jersey. Davitamon-Lotto achieved Green and 4th place in 2006 with a much weaker team than Sky will put together. So if Wiggins is good enough, he should be able to podium. Can he win with Cav in the team, probably not, but I don't think he could win if Cav wasn't in the team either.

Can Cav accept that the GC riders shouldn't have to be his tow trucks on the flat stages?

That is what will end up being an issue. Just wait and see...

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

From a nationalistic point of view, sure, great move. Increasing visibility by winning Tour stages, again, great move.

But as far as developing some of the brightest young talent in the sport and utilising a very promising and resourceful team - terrible move.

Wiggins is hardly a bright young talent, and the main potential conflict of interest is between him and Cavendish. As for the actual bright young talents, no sane team is going to choose developing potential winners over winning with a proven winner.

And it's not about nationalism on the part of the team, but the ability of the team to play off public nationalism to raise the profile of cycling in Britain and get plenty of column inches for the sponsors. Track cyclists are moderately well known in Britain, even though track is a backwater ranking somewhere below cyclocross in real terms, because they deliver British success. Cavendish has "British success" practically tattooed on his forehead.

The desirability of Cavendish as a national sporting celebrity in Britain, delivering a steady stream of wins in a Sky jersey, is a complete no-brainer from the point of view of Sky and of British cycling officialdom. In fact the only thing that could be more desirable from their point of view is a British Tour winner, something which looked about as likely in the short term as a manned British expedition to Mars before some genius at the ASO decided to bore us all to death next year. Right up until that happened, aiming to be a better version of Garmin was the obvious thing to do.

As for whether GC riders "should" have to be tow trucks for a sprinter, there's no "should" in professional cycling. It's a ruthless business and fringe GC riders and promising young talents will always be at the disposal of a rider who is the central focus of a team when it suits the team. That's true if the focus of the team is a Contador or a Cavendish. Cavendish is the winner, he's the box office draw, he's the priority. Or at least he will almost always be the priority - the ASO may possibly have handed Sky a higher priority for next year's Tour.

 

[LugHugger]

I agree with everything you said except this bit.

I think the resolution is fairly easy for them

Wiggins doesnt give a rats about the Olympics. He has 2 olympic gold and a couple of other medals so really doesnt care much. This is his best ever chance at winning the Tour though - and that he cares about VERY much.

Cavendish on the other hand has 20 Tour stage wins, has a green jersey and while getting some more would be nice, what he wants is
a) to win A stage in his rainbow stripes: and
b) to win Olympic gold

Him and Wiggins will do a deal. Wiggo has already shown at the WC how incredibly important he is to Cav's chances of winning the Gold .... so the deal will be the Tour for Wiggins and the Olympics for Cav.

Cav will get Eisel to guide him at the Tour, but they wont be chasing too many breaks or controlling things for him. He will drop out at the first real mountain stage anyway, and in return Wiggins will work his a$$ off for Cav in London

I believe that this is close to the game plan for next year too.

 

[Winterfold]

+1 above

But now for some real drama

Cav is not going to wear white shorts with the rainbow jersey

I saw chapeau Cav - white cycling shorts are 1000% wrong and should be an arrestable offence. Particularly on dark, hairy types in the rain.

 

[Thomsena]

Can't blame him tbh.

http://norcalcyclingnews.com/words/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/georgeys_porgey.jpg

 

[patterson_hood]

People seem to forget that one team doesn't have to do all the work. They also seem to forget that the rider who is most like Wiggins, Evans, won the tour this year with a pretty weak team when it came down to it. Sky know BMC will be riding for Evans and Wiggins will be able to sit in his group which will reduce Sky's work load, freeing up some people to ride for Cav. Also Garmin, GE, Katusha, Lampre and probably Liquigas will work on the front on flat stages without HTC there. With a reduced train for Cav they may even fancy their chances more, especially if they think like most of the people in this forum and think Cav can only win with a train.

 

[AussieGoddess]

but if Sky have yellow, BMC, Liqui etc are not going to be doing the work for them.

BMC were incredibly fortunate because they NEVER had to control the race. Cadel didnt get yellow until the final day.

Sky cant plan on doing that. They need to go in with the ability to control it, and that means not spending all their men on chasing breaks for Cav.

They will still send Eisel (and maybe give Cav a bit of positioning help at the end if it ends up being a sprint), but they wont devote a number of guys to chase for him.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Sky know BMC will be riding for Evans and Wiggins will be able to sit in his group which will reduce Sky's work load, freeing up some people to ride for Cav. Also Garmin, GE, Katusha, Lampre and probably Liquigas will work on the front on flat stages without HTC there. With a reduced train for Cav they may even fancy their chances more, especially if they think like most of the people in this forum and think Cav can only win with a train.

None of those teams think that Cavendish can only win a train and neither do most of the people in this forum.

I'd be surprised if any of the existing teams volunteer to work on the front any more than they did last year (which varied from team to team). They'll take one look at Sky and say "this is your problem", as they will do to any team Cavendish is on, and quite rightly so. Green Edge might be a different story as they have essentially nothing going for them in the Tour other than losing sprints to Cavendish.

If Sky don't chase, there'll be a number of happy breakaway riders.

 

[Tei6chai]

If Sky don't chase, there'll be a number of happy breakaway riders.

I don't buy the general hypothesis, since there will be plenty of teams who can't afford not to place their sprinter on the second or third step of the podium ... but if it does turn out that we see more breakaways making it home, I for one won't be complaining.

In fact, I think most people are seriously overestimating the number of potential sprinters stages in next year's TdF, and underestimating the number of stages which are going to be raced like lumpy classics.

... and besides, the TdF is still only one race, however big it is commercially.

How about discussing the other 90% of the 2012 season?

 

[Richeypen]

in fact, i think most people are seriously overestimating the number of potential sprinters stages in next year's tdf, and underestimating the number of stages which are going to be raced like lumpy classics.

... And besides, the tdf is still only one race, however big it is commercially.

How about discussing the other 90% of the 2012 season?

+1000



.

 

[greenedge]

Cav can sprint on his own. However he shall not have the whole team devoted to him. @ AussieGoddess: However Cadels' team was the one who did a lot of work, stage 1,2,4,8,9 and on mountain stages guiding him. Only Leopard did more but they were trying to attack ( futiley ) and the other teams sat back and conserved energy.

 

[Benotti69]

None of those teams think that Cavendish can only win a train and neither do most of the people in this forum.

I'd be surprised if any of the existing teams volunteer to work on the front any more than they did last year (which varied from team to team). They'll take one look at Sky and say "this is your problem", as they will do to any team Cavendish is on, and quite rightly so. Green Edge might be a different story as they have essentially nothing going for them in the Tour other than losing sprints to Cavendish.

If Sky don't chase, there'll be a number of happy breakaway riders.

What makes you think greenedge will be riding the tour?

Geox missed out this years TdF.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

What makes you think greenedge will be riding the tour?

I think that the UCI will probably give them World Tour status. I don't think they'd merit an invite if they don't get that status.

 

[The Hitch]

Wiggins doesnt give a rats about the Olympics.

I know Wiggins has a history of saying stupid things into the mike without thinking but he did say in an interview this year that his life is all about the 2012 olympics and that everything else he does in between olympic years is just something to occupy him.

He made very clear that the Olympics are his main focus.

It was in an interview on the BBC i think during an olympics proggrame. I dont have a clip, but funnily I can trace the day I heard the clip to March the 6th 2011.

 

[just some guy]

I know Wiggins has a history of saying stupid things into the mike without thinking but he did say in an interview this year that his life is all about the 2012 olympics and that everything else he does in between olympic years is just something to occupy him.

He made very clear that the Olympics are his main focus.

It was in an interview on the BBC i think during an olympics proggrame. I dont have a clip, but funnily I can trace the day I heard the clip to March the 6th 2011.

Although if he has seen the leaked route things may have changed since march 6th 2011 especially considering the Vuelta

 

[Tei6chai]

I know Wiggins has a history of saying stupid things into the mike without thinking but he did say in an interview this year that his life is all about the 2012 olympics and that everything else he does in between olympic years is just something to occupy him.

He made very clear that the Olympics are his main focus.

It was in an interview on the BBC i think during an olympics proggrame. I dont have a clip, but funnily I can trace the day I heard the clip to March the 6th 2011.

I think it's the "history of saying stupid things into the mike without thinking" that explains why he's said exactly the opposite in practically every recent interview.

If he's up for the Olympics at all now, it sounds like the ITT, not the track.

And BC won't allow him to sacrifice Cav's Olympic RR chances, like he did the madison in 2008.

 

[hatcher]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/cycling/15022400.stm

Post-Vuelta he says 100% going for Tour GC. Olympics will fit around that goal.

 

[ramjambunath]

I know Wiggins has a history of saying stupid things into the mike without thinking but he did say in an interview this year that his life is all about the 2012 olympics and that everything else he does in between olympic years is just something to occupy him.

He made very clear that the Olympics are his main focus.

It was in an interview on the BBC i think during an olympics proggrame. I dont have a clip, but funnily I can trace the day I heard the clip to March the 6th 2011.

Do you mean this one? Can't play it though and can't find on Youtube
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00zmyxb

Anyway, he recently stated tour over Olympics before saying he wants both.

 

[Angliru]

I think it's the "history of saying stupid things into the mike without thinking" that explains why he's said exactly the opposite in practically every recent interview.

If he's up for the Olympics at all now, it sounds like the ITT, not the track.

And BC won't allow him to sacrifice Cav's Olympic RR chances, like he did the madison in 2008.

It might also be his Vuelta and Dauphine performances, the Vuelta especially considering he wasn't fully recovered from his Tour injury. Where before he was content to aim for the podium of the Tour, his performances this year have given him reason to believe that he can win the Tour. He firmly believes he should've won the Vuelta and that he would've been in the running for winning the Tour had he not crashed out on stage 7. With the rumoured parcours for the Tour it appears that he has to be one of the select few mentioned as a contender. I think he puts a Tour win above any Olympic glory now that he truly believes he is capable of winning.

 

[Catwhoorg]

Look for EBH, Thomas, Uran, Henao, Hayman, Wiggins, Flecha etc to scout the market at next years TdF/classics.

EBH - contract expires 2012
Flecha - conflicting reports, but seems to be 2012

Thomas - resigned this year through to 2014, though will focus on the track for 2012. Has mentioned 2012 as being the last year he will focus on the track.
Uran - conflicting reports, could be 2012 or 2013
Henao - signed through 2013
Hayman - just renewed through to 2013, knowing that Cav was almost certain to join.
Wiggins -contract expires 2013. Talked about retiring a couple of years ago, don't know if he will follow through on that.


DB has called EBH on of the best talents around. If it is within his power to keep him at Sky I have little doubt he will do so. EBH seems to enjoy the team and the set-up, and he has been given plenty of oppurtuniteis to date.

Flecha could go, and much as I think he is a wonderful classics rider he isn't getting any younger. He will be 35 next year. He would be a loss, but hardly one that would cripple the team.

I have said it before though, managing the talent is going to be DB's biggest headache next year. So I can acknowledge that there is a possibility of some of those leaving once their contracts expire, but there certainly wont be a mass exodus after next season.

 

[LugHugger]

I know Wiggins has a history of saying stupid things into the mike without thinking but he did say in an interview this year that his life is all about the 2012 olympics and that everything else he does in between olympic years is just something to occupy him.

He made very clear that the Olympics are his main focus.

It was in an interview on the BBC i think during an olympics proggrame. I dont have a clip, but funnily I can trace the day I heard the clip to March the 6th 2011.

That was before the Dauphine and the self-belief came back though. Marry that to his Vuelta performance and I think that if you asked again he would give a very different answer.

 

[Tei6chai]

DB has called EBH on of the best talents around. If it is within his power to keep him at Sky I have little doubt he will do so. EBH seems to enjoy the team and the set-up, and he has been given plenty of oppurtuniteis to date.

Yeah. DB knows what he's got. I don't see him burning his boats with EBH any time soon.

In fact, I'd say Sky have thus far been extremely generous with rider support for EBH ... setting him up well for sprints that he hasn't finished-off, as well as encouraging him to go with breaks.

Flecha could go, and much as I think he is a wonderful classics rider he isn't getting any younger. He will be 35 next year. He would be a loss, but hardly one that would cripple the team.

Flecha looks like a potentially great DS to me.

Yates may be good behind closed doors, but everything I've heard from him or about him publicly makes me think he might be distinctly second rate as a DS.

I've no problem admitting that I could be completely wrong on Yates.

 

[just some guy]

From the front page

You can try but it’s gambling and it’s tricky for both the riders and the managers. One thing is obvious, if they believe that Wiggins can go for yellow they can’t compromise and give Cavendish four guys for the sprints. If they stretch it and think both riders have chance of achieving their goals, then honestly they don’t really believe in Wiggins,” Aldag told Cyclingnews.

 

[SlowBloke]

Why does Cav need a team to win Green?

I don't see why Cav will need to win another 5 or 6 stages of each TdF to win green.

If Sky are not chasing down breaks as HR used to do, then sure, there will be less bunch sprints for the stage win. That doesn't mean that there will be no bunch sprints for the stage win, and Cav is capable of winning without the train when the finish is a sprint. 2 or 3 wins a year for the next four years still put him top 3 on the list of all time greats. It might not look quite as easy, but I'm sure the rest of the sprinters will be happy not to have Cav multiple bike lenghts clear when he crosses the line first.

If there are less bunch sprints for the victory, there will be still be ample point scoring opportunities. If the big points positions have gone to a break away rider who may not score any points again in the three weeks, that won't really be a threat to Cav's green. He will still probably win 8 or 9 bunch sprints, its just that only 2 or 3 of those will be for the stage victory, and the rest for intermediates and remaining finish points.

While Cav is busy wining the green, the rest of the team can get Brad to the end of the stage safely (not mutually exclusive), and then ride for him in the mountains. (Will Cav need a team in the bus on moutain stages?) Brad can then do a Cadel and win the GC in the TT stages.