The chain reaction...

[kurtinsc]

As a fun bit of speculation... what would happen if Lance goes down from the Landis stuff... and decides to spill the beans on other riders... and then THEY give up information as well?

How fun could this get?

If we just start with Lance... how many riders get implicated if we assume every rider who ever rode with him doped?

How many if we assume anyone who rode on other teams with any of the riders who rode with Lance doped?

What if we took it to three degrees of separation? How far would we have to go to implicate pretty much everyone?

Lance had a long career, riding on teams with riders from Andy Hampstein to Tom Boonen to Alberto Contador. The impact of Lance saying "I've never been on a team with a rider who didn't dope" would have huge waves.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

 

[Berzin]

Let me give it to you in detective parlance-

"You rat UP, you never rat DOWN."

Armstrong is the King Rat. Him blowing up his own spot to implicate others will be useless, and not in his DNA makeup.

Now if he implicates Bruyneel and Ferarri, that's a different story. But other riders? I call baloney on this one.

This won't even happen because those three are what encompass the Unholy Trinity of doping in pro cycling. They are the most successful in their respective fields.

1) Armstrong-Most Tour wins.

2) Bruyneel-Most prolific grand tour director sportif.

3) Ferarri-The doctor who made it all happen.

All three have enriched themselves greatly with this performance fraud. None of the three will be forthcoming with any information whatsoever. They'll go to their graves and take their secrets with them.

 

[ingsve]

I doubt that even if Lance did dope that this means all riders he ever rode with doped. That would be too risky for any doping ring. The more people involved the harder it would be to keep the lid on. I don't even see how that would work in practice. You get a new rider on the team, do you then let them in on the fact that the team is doping and they're not the type of guy that actually had morals. Or do you screen all riders before contracting them and how would that even work without letting in on the fact in some way or another.

Given this I think it's safe to assume that any doping ring would be very limited or as in the case of puerto very spread out but still very large.

It was probably the case that even in teams that had very widespread doping back in the day that there was probably people in those teams who didn't know all that was going on.

 

[santacruz]

LA's first reaction was to mention all the other names implicated with himself, as if to say, "if I go down, we all go down!!"

 

[kurtinsc]

First... I meant to put this in the clinic. Oops.


Second... while you may only rat upwards... there's also the dynamic of... "If I'm going down I'm taking everyone else along with me." In particular, if Lance goes down I don't see any way he doesn't try to take Contador along as well, simply from spite.

And third... if Landis was to be believed then the whole team DID dope together... or at least the Tour team. The bus pulled over and everyone got their juice at the same time.

 

[Runitout]

Let me give it to you in detective parlance-

"You rat UP, you never rat DOWN."

Armstrong is the King Rat. Him blowing up his own spot to implicate others will be useless, and not in his DNA makeup.

Now if he implicates Bruyneel and Ferarri, that's a different story. But other riders? I call baloney on this one.

This won't even happen because those three are what encompass the Unholy Trinity of doping in pro cycling. They are the most successful in their respective fields.

1) Armstrong-Most Tour wins.

2) Bruyneel-Most prolific grand tour director sportif.

3) Ferarri-The doctor who made it all happen.

All three have enriched themselves greatly with this performance fraud. None of the three will be forthcoming with any information whatsoever. They'll go to their graves and take their secrets with them.

Mostly agreed, but what's this rubbish about Bruyneel being the most prolific GT DS? Not sure where that comes from but it's not close to being true.

 

[scribe]

Second... while you may only rat upwards... there's also the dynamic of... "If I'm going down I'm taking everyone else along with me." In particular, if Lance goes down I don't see any way he doesn't try to take Contador along as well, simply from spite.

here is the slippery slope you get when relying on pure testimony of jilted lovers without any evidence.

 

[ergmonkey]

here is the slippery slope you get when relying on pure testimony of jilted lovers without any evidence.

The evidence is in a blood bag in Spain. If only we could DNA match it...

 

[Night Rider]

Second... while you may only rat upwards... there's also the dynamic of... "If I'm going down I'm taking everyone else along with me." In particular, if Lance goes down I don't see any way he doesn't try to take Contador along as well, simply from spite.

They hated each other that much that I doubt they have any dirt on each other. I guess that's why the speculation was that the DNA on the syringes from last years TdF would have all the Astana teams DNA except Contadors, he was the outcast and on his own program. Or not.

 

[Susan Westemeyer]

Moving to the Clinic.

 

[progressor]

As a fun bit of speculation... what would happen if Lance goes down from the Landis stuff... and decides to spill the beans on other riders... and then THEY give up information as well?

How fun could this get?

If we just start with Lance... how many riders get implicated if we assume every rider who ever rode with him doped?

How many if we assume anyone who rode on other teams with any of the riders who rode with Lance doped?

What if we took it to three degrees of separation? How far would we have to go to implicate pretty much everyone?

Lance had a long career, riding on teams with riders from Andy Hampstein to Tom Boonen to Alberto Contador. The impact of Lance saying "I've never been on a team with a rider who didn't dope" would have huge waves.

It would totally f*** the sport. Probably irreparably at the top level. Which is why I'm sure they'll try to protect him. It's not just LA with a whole lot to lose.

 

[Cerberus]

As a fun bit of speculation... what would happen if Lance goes down from the Landis stuff... and decides to spill the beans on other riders... and then THEY give up information as well?

How fun could this get?

If we just start with Lance... how many riders get implicated if we assume every rider who ever rode with him doped?

How many if we assume anyone who rode on other teams with any of the riders who rode with Lance doped?

What if we took it to three degrees of separation? How far would we have to go to implicate pretty much everyone?

Lance had a long career, riding on teams with riders from Andy Hampstein to Tom Boonen to Alberto Contador. The impact of Lance saying "I've never been on a team with a rider who didn't dope" would have huge waves.

I don't think LA is really the key to this snowballing. He's been riding for essentially the same team almost all his career. Just because LA is the most famous cyclist doesn't mean fx. Andy Schleck call him and tells him about his program. Zabriskie on the other hand have ridden for CSC and could reveal any team-wide doping that might have occured there. Leapheimer, Hincapie and others also have ridden on far more different teams than LA and could potentially implicate more people. Not saying that he couldn't name more names, but I don't think he's in the best position to blow the sport wide open.

 

[blackcat]

They hated each other that much that I doubt they have any dirt on each other. I guess that's why the speculation was that the DNA on the syringes from last years TdF would have all the Astana teams DNA except Contadors, he was the outcast and on his own program. Or not.

who owned Disco when Pistolero won his first Tour. StrongArm would have known about his medical program fo' sure.

 

[kurtinsc]

They hated each other that much that I doubt they have any dirt on each other. I guess that's why the speculation was that the DNA on the syringes from last years TdF would have all the Astana teams DNA except Contadors, he was the outcast and on his own program. Or not.

Lance has Bruyneel though.

And Bruyneel surely has the dirt on Contador. Let's not forget that before Lance came back, Bruyneel was working on making Contador the next Lance... with everything that implies.

 

[online-rider]

As a fun bit of speculation... what would happen if Lance goes down from the Landis stuff... and decides to spill the beans on other riders... and then THEY give up information as well?

How fun could this get?

If we just start with Lance... how many riders get implicated if we assume every rider who ever rode with him doped?

How many if we assume anyone who rode on other teams with any of the riders who rode with Lance doped?

What if we took it to three degrees of separation? How far would we have to go to implicate pretty much everyone?

Lance had a long career, riding on teams with riders from Andy Hampstein to Tom Boonen to Alberto Contador. The impact of Lance saying "I've never been on a team with a rider who didn't dope" would have huge waves.

You could have a rider whose never ridden the Tour de france crowned champion after retrospective strippings

 

[Papparrazzi]

As a fun bit of speculation... what would happen if Lance goes down from the Landis stuff... and decides to spill the beans on other riders... and then THEY give up information as well?

How fun could this get?

Tom Boonen to Alberto Contador. The impact of Lance saying "I've never been on a team with a rider who didn't dope" would have huge waves.

The sales of bullet-proof vests is going to soar!

 

[kurtinsc]

I don't think LA is really the key to this snowballing. He's been riding for essentially the same team almost all his career. Just because LA is the most famous cyclist doesn't mean fx. Andy Schleck call him and tells him about his program. Zabriskie on the other hand have ridden for CSC and could reveal any team-wide doping that might have occured there. Leapheimer, Hincapie and others also have ridden on far more different teams than LA and could potentially implicate more people. Not saying that he couldn't name more names, but I don't think he's in the best position to blow the sport wide open.

Lance has been riding for nearly 20 years. If he goes balistic, he connects to a ton of other riders that have been on lots of teams.

Honestly though... any rider with a long career will have those kind of connections, so I see your point about him possibly not being able to "first hand" name as many names as some others... but if the ones he names also talk then the chain becomes quite big.

He rode with Leipheimer, Hincapie and Zabriskie... so all their connections become part of his tree. Here's a brief list of noteable riders Lance has been on the same team with:

Zabriskie
Hincapie
Leipheimer
Horner
Contador
Kloden
Brajkovic
Paulinho
Steegmans
Zubeldia
Rubiera
Vaitkus
Rosseler
Iglinsky
Navarro
Popovych
Vinokurov (yes, Lance and Vino were technically both on Astana at the same time last year)
Beltran
Azevedo
Danielson
Ekimov
Hesjedal
Hoste
Roulston
Savoldelli
Van Den Broeck
Devolder
Vandevelde
Boonen
Heras
Ventura
Dean
Hamilton
Andreu
Hoj
Vaughters
Jalabert
Julich
Millar
Moncoutie
Rominger
Merckx (Axel)
Yates
Anderson (Phil)
Bauer
Hampstein
Morenhout (Koos)

Now if you think about the other teams those guys rode for or worked for as DS's/trainers... who in cycling would be safe if this snowballed?

 

[RhodriM]

If he is doping, and even if he gets caught, he will never ever admit it.

Landis has nothing left to lose, but LA has everything.

As long as he denies it, millions will believe him, regardless of any evidence to the contrary.

 

[frenchfry]

If he is doping, and even if he gets caught, he will never ever admit it.

Landis has nothing left to lose, but LA has everything.

As long as he denies it, millions will believe him, regardless of any evidence to the contrary.

I hope that at least he is a bit uncomfortable right now. The myth is under pressure.

 

[rata de sentina]

Zabriskie
.
.
.
Morenhout (Koos)

Gee, your proposed list of victims of LA that he has corrupted or coerced into doping is very long. He´s in a lot of trouble if all that´s true.

 

[Cerberus]

Lance has been riding for nearly 20 years. If he goes balistic, he connects to a ton of other riders that have been on lots of teams.

Honestly though... any rider with a long career will have those kind of connections, so I see your point about him possibly not being able to "first hand" name as many names as some others... but if the ones he names also talk then the chain becomes quite big.

He rode with Leipheimer, Hincapie and Zabriskie... so all their connections become part of his tree. Here's a brief list of noteable riders Lance has been on the same team with:

[List of riders]

Now if you think about the other teams those guys rode for or worked for as DS's/trainers... who in cycling would be safe if this snowballed?

Leipheimer, Hincapie and Zabriskie are already implicated by Landis. That being said I agree that the risk/chance/possibility of snowballing is very real. I've said the same myself. I just don't think Armstrong is likely to be the one to start the avalanche. I'm not as convinced as some that Armstrong will never admit anything, but I think that he will only cave if overwhelming evidence is brought against him. Add to that the rat up, not rat down point others have been making. The way I see it Lance is quite unlikely to name anybody until the avalanche has already started rolling.

ETA: Also he (and everybody else) don't necessarily know about all other riders program even on their team. The way I see it Doping has become far more private in recent years. the risk of someone rolling over on you has just become to big. This limits the snowballing potential somewhat, though as I said I still think it's a big possibility.

 

[ScienceIsCool]

The people with the most to lose are the ones with the money. ASO, RCS, UCI, and maybe even the IOC. If they wanted to protect their investment and keep the money flowing, I can see them doing something to stop the chain reaction before it occurs.

That may include throwing Armstrong/Bruyneel/Ferrari under the bus while protecting QuickStep, Rabobank, et al.

The UCI gets to say with a loud voice that they've really cleaned up this time and the whole thing moves forward again. Maybe a bit bruised and with fewer sponsors in the Americas, but at least the system didn't burn to the ground.

John Swanson

 

[kurtinsc]

Leipheimer, Hincapie and Zabriskie are already implicated by Landis. That being said I agree that the risk/chance/possibility of snowballing is very real. I've said the same myself. I just don't think Armstrong is likely to be the one to start the avalanche. I'm not as convinced as some that Armstrong will never admit anything, but I think that he will only cave if overwhelming evidence is brought against him. Add to that the rat up, not rat down point others have been making. The way I see it Lance is quite unlikely to name anybody until the avalanche has already started rolling.

ETA: Also he (and everybody else) don't necessarily know about all other riders program even on their team. The way I see it Doping has become far more private in recent years. the risk of someone rolling over on you has just become to big. This limits the snowballing potential somewhat, though as I said I still think it's a big possibility.

About the doping being more private... I'm not sure the evidence suggests that.

If we believe the blood bags connected to Astana during the tour last year were for doping... then that suggests heavily that the team was having the group dope together... not privately. We also have Landis telling us about the bus pulling over while everyone on the tour team got some blood one year. There are stories from other teams like CSC about group doping as well.

I still say that if Lance sees that he's going to go down, he's not going to keep his mouth shut for the "good of the sport". He's going to take people down with him... most particularly those he doesn't like or those he felt wronged him.

There's no way he doesn't try to take Contador down with him if he goes... he'd be target number one.