The Cycling Betting Thread

[Badeend]

I know. I was looking at it too.

Then the harsh reality that the bet will be voided struck me hard

There's another Thomas bet at bet365.

hahaha you would think they would get the market right.

Well we could try ... losing the money is impossible so. If they are that stupid to give this bet they could be able to grade the bet correct if they dont see Thomas in the results. I can imagine some genius at bet365 thinking: Hmm, that bloke probably gave up, correct bet
Had a bet on Cristiano Ronaldo to score once in his first match at Real Madrid, i took it 12 hours after the game finished and Bwin payed it!

 

[Sasquatch]

Just like I took Freire to win Milan San Remo as soon as he won at an unspecified book.

They had the market closing at 3am Australian time and the race finished at 2am Australian time.

I tell you what is a rock solid bet. Do you have a Sportingbet account?

--------

This opened at Bet365 at $3 and is now at $2. It's still 2.80 at Sportingbet

$600 Caisse to win the Team Classification @ $2.80

Before Stage 16, Caisse were nearly four minutes behind. Thanks to Plaza, Arroyo, Sanchez and Bruseghin, they brought back nearly two and a quarter minutes.

If memory serves me correctly, Caisse opened as favourites before the Veulta and were as little as 1.20 at one stage. These odds don't make sense.

There are two stages where Caisse can get the 1.33 deficit they have back. The time trial today and the penultimate stage on Saturday.

In the time trial, Caisse have Ruben Plaza, Luis Leon Sanchez and Marzio Bruseghin who can all ride top ten.

Katusha have Vladimir Karpets and even he isn't showing what he is capable of. He may have rested up the other day and is fresh here, but he's the only one Katusha have to get top ten. Their other riders aren't in the league Caisse are in.

So it wouldn't surprise me if Caisse actually get the lead today.

Heading onto Saturday's stage, Katusha will need to sacrifice their riders for Rodriguez. The overall win is in his reach and that's what they are focused on. Caisse aren't focused on anything other than the teams classification and will plan accordingly so they have more climbers than Katusha that can defend the lead or pick it up depending what happens in the time trial.

 

[Sasquatch]

Info has come to me that Millar isn't as focused on the time trial than I thought.

I have already placed the bets but a warning for anyone who may be following me. Tread lightly with the Millar bets. He should still beat Ignatiev but the Zabriskie bet is the one I'm worried about and the top three.

 

[Badeend]

I dont have an account there ... but looks like i should get one as soon as i can
Yes Caisse was big favorite before the start, RadioShack was at 2.00 in TdF with such an impressive team and Caisse at such silly odds, unbelievable.

Didnt Sportingbet have a European and an Australian site? Does it matter wich one i take?

Off topic:
Score Millwall, score ffs

 

[Sasquatch]

Yeah,

Ridiculous odds. Bet365 have it right now.

 

[The Sheep]

Peraud over TJVG @ 2.25 on Unibet what you think?

 

[Sasquatch]

Peraud lost 30 minutes the other day, so did Van Garderen I think.

Hard to tell. Which one is fresher. I would lean Peraud but Van Garderen is no slouch against the clock.

 

[Scirea]

In the time trial, Caisse have Ruben Plaza, Luis Leon Sanchez and Marzio Bruseghin who can all ride top ten.

Katusha have Vladimir Karpets and even he isn't showing what he is capable of. He may have rested up the other day and is fresh here, but he's the only one Katusha have to get top ten. Their other riders aren't in the league Caisse are in.

So it wouldn't surprise me if Caisse actually get the lead today.

Ignatiev should post a very solid time, he did basically nothing since the start of the Vuelta. Gusev shouldn't be too bad either.

 

[Badeend]

Ignatiev should post a very solid time, he did basically nothing since the start of the Vuelta. Gusev shouldn't be too bad either.

Yes, was i thinking as well ... but Caisse did very good. They dont have the best team in this Vuelta but they are so focused to win the teamclassification. And thats what counts. Like RadioShack in Tdf. If Armstrong was top 3 they probably wouldnt have won that.

Very strong TT from Mosquera, odds on Nibali went up, even 1.94 at Betfair. But i dont see Nibali losing 40 seconds on Saturday, he never lost that much on a mountainstage on Mosquera. I already took him at 1.60, otherwise i would try it on 1.94.

 

[Scirea]

Yes, was i thinking as well ... but Caisse did very good. They dont have the best team in this Vuelta but they are so focused to win the teamclassification. And thats what counts. Like RadioShack in Tdf. If Armstrong was top 3 they probably wouldnt have won that.

Very strong TT from Mosquera, odds on Nibali went up, even 1.94 at Betfair. But i dont see Nibali losing 40 seconds on Saturday, he never lost that much on a mountainstage on Mosquera. I already took him at 1.60, otherwise i would try it on 1.94.

I'm confident Mosquera will win the Vuelta.

In the team GC Caisse did really well today but the poor showing from Purito could hurt them. Now he has no chance to win so Katusha will not use Karpets and Gusev for him. They certainly won't let any Caisse riders get into a break withouth a Katusha rider, Kolobnev, Ignatiev, Caruso and Horrach are perfect for that role.

 

[Badeend]

I'm confident Mosquera will win the Vuelta.

Thx for the moral support .
Lets hope that flat tire doesnt decide who will win this Vuelta. 39 seconds or more then a minute is a huge difference.

 

[Scirea]

Thx for the moral support .
Lets hope that flat tire doesnt decide who will win this Vuelta. 39 seconds or more then a minute is a huge difference.

Sorry buddy, that's how i feel. I don't have a bet on it yet but i'm strongly considering it. This is the last chance for Mosquera in his career to win a GT. He is getting old and the Vuelta will be harder in the next years with Contador, Gesink, Valverde... coming. He will put everything he has on the rode, going over his limits. Bola del Mundo is a long one and 39 seconds is almost nothing. Eke can get that in the last 3 kilometers alone. And if he even gets the bonus seconds for the stage win i think Nibali won't stand a chance.

 

[Frosty]

39 seconds is even less if there is a 20 second bonus waiting at the top for you... I think that Xacebo will do all they can to try and stop the breakaway from staying away - by therefore driving the peloton harder they also make it likely that the gaps between the GC riders will be higher.

 

[Frosty]

I'm confident Mosquera will win the Vuelta.

In the team GC Caisse did really well today but the poor showing from Purito could hurt them. Now he has no chance to win so Katusha will not use Karpets and Gusev for him. They certainly won't let any Caisse riders get into a break withouth a Katusha rider, Kolobnev, Ignatiev, Caruso and Horrach are perfect for that role.

Yes, you'd think that they will realise that the overall win is unlikely so pay more attention to the team classification. They may still try and use Karpets and Gusev to rip the race the race to shreds if they think Rod can make up the time but that relies on both Nibali and Mosquera blowing big time - and thats after a rest day followed by them both doing a good time trial, followed by two flat stages. Not ideal previous stages if you want someone to crack. They'll still have plans for such an eventuality, and if Velits drops away towards the end then J-Rod couold pick up the last pdium but i think they will be trying to retain their lead in the team classification.

 

[The Sheep]

Did that Tersptra Thomas H2H work? I see Theo Bos vs Haedo on Unibet now

 

[Scirea]

Did that Tersptra Thomas H2H work? I see Theo Bos vs Haedo on Unibet now

No way, all bookies need both riders to start the stage.

 

[Badeend]

Did that Tersptra Thomas H2H work? I see Theo Bos vs Haedo on Unibet now

Didnt work. But i had to rollover 350 euro's for some bonus on bet365 and now i already did 150 euro's

Hmm seems like you all have trust in Mosquera. When i look at the mountainstages Nibali versus Mosquera is 3-3. The last 2 stages Nibali lost time but at Lagos they didnt race behind him, he only took 11 seconds while Nibali just kept tempo for several kilometres. On Monday Nibali had a bad day ... it could be a sign he is over the top, or simply a bad day like everyone has some in a three week race. He had a restday to recover, today the TT, 2 easy stages for the GC-guys and only then its decisive stage. He showed consistency in the Giro.
For Mosquera this is a once in a lifetime. Do you think he will sleep well knowing this ?

 

[Scirea]

Didnt work. But i had to rollover 350 euro's for some bonus on bet365 and now i already did 150 euro's

Hmm seems like you all have trust in Mosquera. When i look at the mountainstages Nibali versus Mosquera is 3-3. The last 2 stages Nibali lost time but at Lagos they didnt race behind him, he only took 11 seconds while Nibali just kept tempo for several kilometres. On Monday Nibali had a bad day ... it could be a sign he is over the top, or simply a bad day like everyone has some in a three week race. He had a restday to recover, today the TT, 2 easy stages for the GC-guys and only then its decisive stage. He showed consistency in the Giro.
For Mosquera this is a once in a lifetime. Do you think he will sleep well knowing this ?

You can't compare the 6 uphill finishes. When Nibali finished ahead of Mosquera it was an uphill sprint basically for a couple of kilometers. Mosquera is better on long climbs and Bola del Mundo is 22km long with a killer finish.

Also you seem to forget that Mosquera also had a bad day on Monday. He said he felt horrible from the start. And yes, i think he will sleep well. Basically in the last 20 years he trained for this chance, this moment to come. He will leave it all on the climb.

 

[The Sheep]

Anyone betting on the top 6 since there's only 30 seconds between 4-9? I was thinking of putting some on Sastre

 

[Badeend]

There are arguments in favor of Mosquera, but i still believe in Nibali, we'll see it on Saturday

 

[Scirea]

My question would be this, who will be the numero uno guy for Lampre tomorrow? After Petacchi went home it was Furlan in stage 12 and Hondo in stage 13.

 

[Frosty]

Anyone betting on the top 6 since there's only 30 seconds between 4-9? I was thinking of putting some on Sastre

Schleck and Rodriguez should do well on saturday so they should be safe. The order of the other four is almost the reverse of the actual results from monday's stage so that makes it a real gamble for 6th spot. Im thinking Roche will mark Sastre if he goes and do enough to just steal it from Tondo

 

[cyclingfanatik]

I think Nibbles has a pretty good chance especially if they let a break go on st. 20. I dont thing Mosquera's team is strong enough to do all the work themselves... I'd probably pick some up at 1.9 (bf) if I didn't already have plenty at higher odds.

one for tomorrow: Farrar 1.5 over Bennati

 

[Scirea]

I think Nibbles has a pretty good chance especially if they let a break go on st. 20. I dont thing Mosquera's team is strong enough to do all the work themselves... I'd probably pick some up at 1.9 (bf) if I didn't already have plenty at higher odds.

one for tomorrow: Farrar 1.5 over Bennati

They won't have to work alone. All of the teams with riders in 4-9th places will work. They need the bonus seconds to take over Velits for the last podium place. Katusha, Cervelo, Garmin, AG2R, Saxo. Plenty of horsepower.

 

[Sasquatch]

I've got on these early and they are already moving in.

$500 Larsson over Menchov @ $1.45 (Sportingbet)
$400 Millar over Ignatiev @ $1.85 (Bet24)
$200 Millar over Zabriskie @ $1.85 (Sportingbet)

$200 Millar top 3 @ $2.50 (Sportingbet)

Okay, that didn't go to plan but not a major loss.

Today

$300 Farrar over Bennati @ $1.45

Overall

$500 Mosquera @ $2.20

Mosquera has proven to be a better climber than Nibali on the last two stages. It wouldn't surprise me if Rodriguez and Mosquera end up teaming up. Rodriguez knows he can't win but a podium is within reach. Being a Spaniard, he would prefer to see Mosquera win than Nibali. So the two teams could be forces.

Either way, I think Nibali is stuffed and this bet can win if the teams take it up to Liquigas early on Saturday to try and dislodge Krueziger from Nibali. If it weren't for Kreuziger the other day, Nibali would have lost a huge amount of time. That's the key. Mosquera is in a winning position now after all these years. I can't see him letting this one slide.