The Cycling Betting Thread

[Nuash65]

Stage 5: Just got Pozzo @ 84 on betfair. Finish near his hometown!

 

[Poursuivant]

Anyone betting with Paddy Power?
They said bets refunded if an Italian wins stage, still havent. Been refunded.

 

[Nuash65]

Anyone betting with Paddy Power?
They said bets refunded if an Italian wins stage, still havent. Been refunded.

Just looked and I've been refunded. I expect you have as well but if not I'd give it a few hours before contacting them.

 

[Poursuivant]

Yes I have mate, it is a very handy little fall back!

 

[Pulpstar]

Laying Evans for the Giro, 3.6 looks short. He'll probably go and win it now !

 

[Pricey_sky]

Trying to find a bit of each-way value for a podium. Quintana is a worthy favourite but Evans and Uran seem far to short in the betting. Pozzovivo at 22/1 and Majka at 25/1 seem interesting.

 

[The Hitch]

Trying to find a bit of each-way value for a podium. Quintana is a worthy favourite but Evans and Uran seem far to short in the betting. Pozzovivo at 22/1 and Majka at 25/1 seem interesting.

Yep those are good shouts. I think the 3 other Italians are better value though. Basso, scarponi both right up there. Both slightly younger than Evans. Both showed good climbing last year.
Both given quite lower odds.

The third one Is aru for which all of the above apply except the word "slightly" should be changed to "significantly"

 

[Pricey_sky]

Glad I took the 22/1 on Pozzo now, he's only 7/1 after today.

 

[kevchenko13]

I'm in a similar boat; before the Giro I took Scarpo, Pozzo and Aru all e/w. There was no massive value in Quintana, J-Rod, Uran and Evans (and especially now we see what happened to Rodriguez). So far so good, despite Scarponi's huffing and puffing at the weekend (good job I split my Astana bet).

 

[Orbit501]

Good Giro so far for me. Although I'm not counting chickens when it comes to GC yet.

Only bet on one stage up until today, and one of the two placed was on Weening for stage 9 at 40/1 e/w

Before it all started I took GC odds on Pozzo e/w @ 25/1 and Majka e/w @40/1.

A few little e/w long odds riding on breakaway possiblities for stage 11 tomorrow as well now.

 

[kevchenko13]

I'm in a similar boat; before the Giro I took Scarpo, Pozzo and Aru all e/w. There was no massive value in Quintana, J-Rod, Uran and Evans (and especially now we see what happened to Rodriguez). So far so good, despite Scarponi's huffing and puffing at the weekend (good job I split my Astana bet).

Long way to go but Aru has come in from 100/1 (which is what I took him on) to 6/1.

 

[Poursuivant]

Long way to go but Aru has come in from 100/1 (which is what I took him on) to 6/1.

Well done.

Any bets for tomorrow?

I quite fancy Arredondo, Mansualve, Duarte for the break

 

[manafana]

don't take duarte off rest day will strike later in the week.

rolland prehaps, but quintana the man to beat.

 

[Poursuivant]

don't take duarte off rest day will strike later in the week.

rolland prehaps, but quintana the man to beat.

Nice call ...

 

[mihhint]

Hey.

I've been big sports fan my whole life, but I've never really bothered to bet money on it. I've always thought that in a field so competitive, you would need to be a full-time expert with proper sources and whatnot to get some sort of return. But having followed cycling little closer for few years now, I've often been surprised at different odds major betting sites give this or that, almost like they don't understand this sport too much. So I have been thinking that if I ever go into sports betting, I might start off with cycling. Am I just being naive here, or is there something too it?

 

[kevchenko13]

Oh there are certainly good wins to be had. I bet peanuts each time, a pound or two here and there, mainly for the satisfaction of the wins. Only done it for about a year and don't have an amazing success rate; probably my best results were Majka e/w on Lombardia, Vanmarcke e/w on the Ronde and Aru e/w for the Giro.

The main things I've found are:
- Stage head to heads are interesting and they get you thinking. Often they pick a couple of fairly evenly matched riders and you can go with the form, but sometimes they might put (say) Greipel v EBH on a stage where you can be pretty sure Greipel won't make it over the hill. Easy win.
- Favourites are underpriced and outsiders are overpriced. Just look at the odds on Froome to win the Tour. Crazily short when you think that a broken collarbone is all it takes for it to be all over. And there's no value in the each way. This can even be the case for individual races and stages. But you don't need to look far down the list for a rider where the odds are comfortably double, or even triple digits. Are they flying under the radar? Might they get in a break which sticks? (check twitter, sometimes they even say if they will) Are they a good rider for a less fancied team? Obviously these bets don't often come off but when you successfully pick an outsider it's a great feeling.
- Backing riders gives you someone to root for on even the most pancake flat stage.

 

[kevchenko13]

So, the outsider I've gone 'small bet each way' on at the moment is Konig. He's bringing some decent form to the table in the Dauphine and is well suited to a climby parcours. With the big three watching each other so closely they might not be too worried about someone like Konig getting near the top of the GC.

I've taken him each way at 100/1 for the Dauphine and 400/1 for the Tour. The latter is of course extremely unlikely to happen but it's not like he's 100 times less likely to get on the podium than Contador, or 20 times less likely than Van Garderen, so I think there's a bit of value in a tiny stake there.

 

[Poursuivant]

D Martin 7/4 to finish above Rodriguez at TDF. Rodriguez isnt going for GC at all but the question is, is Dan Martin going and if so, is he going for GC?

 

[karlboss]

Demare for green each way 31 to win a 6 to place. Thoughts?

 

[Cramps]

After stage 6, Nibali and Contador are both about 2.5 on betfair. Anyone else find that really surprising? I thought that seems like a serious underestimate of Nibali, and more of an emotional than a rational price on Contador.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

more the other way around. nibali has no chance in hell to beat contador unless he gets sick

 

[karlboss]

Demare for green each way 31 to win a 6 to place. Thoughts?

Glad I didn't bother.

 

[manafana]

more the other way around. nibali has no chance in hell to beat contador unless he gets sick

felt same pity contador gone home

 

[Cramps]

felt same pity contador gone home

me also, not a nice way to win. I still think Nibali (with a 2:30 advantage) was underrated, but we now have a long wait for a true test

 

[richard_91]

Got 14/1 on Zubeldia to finish in the top 10, yesterday

My thinking is of the people above him theres 4 domestiques, Gallopin, Rui Costa has looked weak, not sure if Horner will be given freedom/has the stamina, Kwia has been wasting alot of energy on unsuccessful attacks and should fade.

So if everything goes the way i think/hope he needs to find 1min 30 on Rolland, with the Giro in the legs and his attacking nature I'm hoping he fades a bit with Haimer just plugs along not attacking but finishing high up.

Meanwhile you can still back Talansky to come top 3.............