The Cycling Betting Thread

[Cramps]

I was looking at Bardet for top 6, does he have much of a TT history?

 

[kedricbarclay]

Betting is very common in some places and it is illegal too.So they should be careful while doing so.

football world cup betting odds
rugby betting odds

 

[Nuash65]

Tom D 12/1 at Paddy for worlds ITT.

Seems worth a few points to me if he's targeting it. Anyone with knowledge?

 

[Sasquatch]

Stage 21

Lutsenko E/W $41/$10.25
Quinziato E/W $51/$12.75
Valverde E/W $67/$16.75

Kelderman over S Sanchez @ $1.72
Quinziato over Bennati @ $1.72


Montreal

Gallopin E/W $29/$7.25
Costa E/W $34/$8.50

 

[Sasquatch]

What I do find interesting is that Valverde has been backed from $67 into $16/$17

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Tom D 12/1 at Paddy for worlds ITT.

Seems worth a few points to me if he's targeting it. Anyone with knowledge?

What?

 

[Hugo Koblet]

What I do find interesting is that Valverde has been backed from $67 into $16/$17

He was 300/1 yesterday. But that was on Paddy though, so it almost doesn't count

 

[Sasquatch]

He was 300/1 yesterday. But that was on Paddy though, so it almost doesn't count

lol

Paddy are like that. They release their markets well before other books and riders can be long odds. Then they adjust when other books open the markets and they find out they are well off.

Lutsenko was $41 on Paddy, now $67. I feel a bit robbed there. Mostly due to the E/W odds. I think he comes top 3 rather than win.

 

[Nuash65]

I usually only bet small for fun but I've just bet big on Sky e/w @ 8/1 PP for TTT. I think (even without Froome) they should be more like 4/1 and barring bad mechanicals etc. I can't see three teams beating them.

 

[Red Rick]

How are odds usually determined by the sites?

Are the odds the same no matter the size of the bet?

Seems like you can make some money betting sports like cycling, rather than tennis I imagine

 

[ILovecycling]

How are odds usually determined by the sites?

Are the odds the same no matter the size of the bet?

Seems like you can make some money betting sports like cycling, rather than tennis I imagine

1) usual habit is that the one (or two) site set odds and other ones just copy them and then eventually change them after too many bets on certain underrated rider etc

2)depends on betting site iirc, I bet on those where are the same, but esp in GB there are sites which provides this feature

3)I've never bet on tennis even if I follow him. The good thing about cycling is that you can (and should) make a tactics.You can bet small bets,large bets,regularly,not regularly,outsiders (biiig odds),favourites,e/w or win,GC or stages, H2H,podium or other special things

But like I said, if you want to bet on cycling throughout the season, use some sort of tactic.Someone just bets on 'wrong set' odds, other only on favourites. As for me, I bet on breakaways or other high odds riders and H2H when it is 'sure' win

 

[Hugo Koblet]

How are odds usually determined by the sites?

Are the odds the same no matter the size of the bet?

Seems like you can make some money betting sports like cycling, rather than tennis I imagine

Yes. However, bookmakers often slash odds when there are heavy action. So if you place one big bet on an outsider for a race for instance, the odds might be lowered on future bets.

And yes, tennis is, as far as I know, one of the hardest sports to beat.

 

[manafana]

Revive this for 2015?

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Good idea.

TA today: Stybar @ 26, Moreno @ 26

And then I have a few bets for MSR, RVV and PR.

 

[CiclistaSportivo]

Hi everyone, this is my first post and I write here on betting topic

Tomorrow for the Amstel Gold Race 2015 my tips are

Head to Head

Samuel Sanchez on Ben Hermans (This is pretty solid IMHO) 1.83

Joaquim Rodriguez on Henao (as above) 1.53

Valverde on Kwiatkowski 1.57

Mollema on Gasparotto 2.00

Matthews on Gilbert 2.62

Vanendert on Rebellin 1.57

Winner

Michael Matthews 6.50

Let's see what happens, last year I had a good trend and I was in doubt on opening a Facebook page with my tips
Maybe this is the right year?


If there's no problem in rules, I can say where I took these betting odds (betting website)

 

[mrhender]

I have a 5'er on Valgren for tomorrow @80

 

[CiclistaSportivo]

Re:

I have a 5'er on Valgren for tomorrow @80

Bah, imho it's a too-much-important race to win for him

With a startlist like that, I'm pretty sure he'll stay on the wheels 'till the last meter and this race doesn't look like a minor tour of Spain where he can win a little bunch sprint (if the 4-10 group arrives, there are faster guys)

On the Cauberg, he's not the fastest and imho he will never do a solo action

 

[mrhender]

Easy now

It's just a petty nationally biased shot in the dark.... One you likely miss..

No need to argue it like I was wagering on a favorite...

See the odds............!
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
As for solo action... Did you watch the worlds last year?

 

[CiclistaSportivo]

Re:

Easy now

It's just a petty nationally biased shot in the dark.... One you likely miss..

Oh sorry

No need to argue it like I was wagering on a favorite...

See the odds............!
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
As for solo action... Did you watch the worlds last year?

There was a little misunderstanding in my eyes, I've read Valgreen (that is Valverde in Italian)

@Valgren: dunno, too many bigs won't let him go

I use a rational arguing, nothing against you or the rider

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Hi everyone, this is my first post and I write here on betting topic

Tomorrow for the Amstel Gold Race 2015 my tips are

Head to Head

Samuel Sanchez on Ben Hermans (This is pretty solid IMHO) 1.83

Joaquim Rodriguez on Henao (as above) 1.53

Valverde on Kwiatkowski 1.57

Mollema on Gasparotto 2.00

Matthews on Gilbert 2.62

Vanendert on Rebellin 1.57

Winner

Michael Matthews 6.50

Let's see what happens, last year I had a good trend and I was in doubt on opening a Facebook page with my tips
Maybe this is the right year?


If there's no problem in rules, I can say where I took these betting odds (betting website)

Sanchez > Hermans and Vanendert > Rebellin look quite good indeed.
What chances in percentage do you give Matthews to win? Even though I have a lot of faith in Matthews for today, 6.5 is too low imo.
Matthews > Gilbert I definitely don't like. If Matthews beats Gilbert, it's likely that he's winning the race.

I only have a few longshots today, although I would have liked to have some money on Matthews as well, but that's too late now.

Felline @ 126
Valgren @ 201
Paterski @ 501

All e/w.

 

[CiclistaSportivo]

Sanchez > Hermans and

The whole team will be on Gilbert, Sanchez showed to be the best "last" man for Gilbert in this race.

Vanendert > Rebellin look quite good indeed.

Seen Rebellin in some races in Italy, didn't appear enough strong

What chances in percentage do you give Matthews to win? Even though I have a lot of faith in Matthews for today, 6.5 is too low imo.

80% (excluding any falls or punctures)
IF, as always happened the race will be "closed" till the Cauberg I think someone is going to anticipate Gilbert so to avoid letting him go alone to the finish line (once again)
In this scenario it's possible to imagine Matthews in the first 5-8 riders, doing a sprint and winning

Matthews > Gilbert I definitely don't like. If Matthews beats Gilbert, it's likely that he's winning the race.

Ye, I based the scheme on this.

I only have a few longshots today, although I would have liked to have some money on Matthews as well, but that's too late now.

Felline @ 126
Valgren @ 201
Paterski @ 501

All e/w.

Pretty hard imho, for sure it would be a great a deal with two coins getting 126 ecc.

Felline 7th at the De Brabantse Pijl, but only one one-day race in the legs and coming from Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco (same as Matthews and he already showed a gooood form)

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Sanchez > Hermans and

The whole team will be on Gilbert, Sanchez showed to be the best "last" man for Gilbert in this race.

Vanendert > Rebellin look quite good indeed.

Seen Rebellin in some races in Italy, didn't appear enough strong

What chances in percentage do you give Matthews to win? Even though I have a lot of faith in Matthews for today, 6.5 is too low imo.

80% (excluding any falls or punctures)
IF, as always happened the race will be "closed" till the Cauberg I think someone is going to anticipate Gilbert so to avoid letting him go alone to the finish line (once again)
In this scenario it's possible to imagine Matthews in the first 5-8 riders, doing a sprint and winning

Matthews > Gilbert I definitely don't like. If Matthews beats Gilbert, it's likely that he's winning the race.

Ye, I based the scheme on this.

I only have a few longshots today, although I would have liked to have some money on Matthews as well, but that's too late now.

Felline @ 126
Valgren @ 201
Paterski @ 501

All e/w.

Pretty hard imho, for sure it would be a great a deal with two coins getting 126 ecc.

Felline 7th at the De Brabantse Pijl, but only one one-day race in the legs and coming from Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco (same as Matthews and he already showed a gooood form)

80%? Lol so you give the rest of the peloton 20% chance to win combined?

 

[CiclistaSportivo]

Call me crazy, btw yes

Look @Sanremo Kristoff (2nd) and Matthews (3rd).
De Brabante (2nd)

 

[CiclistaSportivo]

Not far from what really happened in the race (little bunch sprint).
Waiting for the official results and doing the maths

There was a little mistake on some head to head (gasparotto is faster than mollema in a sprint)

Unfortunately Michael Matthews (3rd) hadn't enough energies after the Cauberg and found a bit of traffic in front of him

 

[CiclistaSportivo]

Head to Head

Samuel Sanchez on Ben Hermans (This is pretty solid IMHO) 1.83

Joaquim Rodriguez on Henao (as above) 1.53

Valverde on Kwiatkowski 1.57

Mollema on Gasparotto 2.00

Matthews on Gilbert 2.62

Vanendert on Rebellin 1.57

Winner

Michael Matthews 6.50