The Cycling Betting Thread

[Leffe_Bruin]

Did my first ever cycling betting today : 5$ kwiatkowski @ 6.5
Was doubting wether or not to place an extra bet on him when Nibali/Kelderman were having 30 sec, Kwiatkowski odds raised to 9. Unfortanately I didn't.
Also put 1$ @ 40 on Kelderman right before he landed in a potato field.

 

[CiclistaSportivo]

For Fleche-Wallone I don't bet, too unpredictable imho

 

[CiclistaSportivo]

Valverde won (as favourite), I was expecting something more from Joaquim and Kwiato

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re:

For Fleche-Wallone I don't bet, too unpredictable imho

Too unpredictable? The last 5 years, the favorite has won 4 times

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Anyway, next up is LBL. Any tips here? I have Wellens e/w @ 81 and Moreno e/w @ 67 which I think is pretty good but both have been slashed after FW.

 

[CiclistaSportivo]

Re: Re:

For Fleche-Wallone I don't bet, too unpredictable imho

Too unpredictable? The last 5 years, the favorite has won 4 times

You know, the trend is going to change just when you are relaxed and confident about it lol

 

[clippittee]

Things just have their surprises. I mean, they usually come when we least expect it.

 

[search]

Re: Re:

For Fleche-Wallone I don't bet, too unpredictable imho

Too unpredictable? The last 5 years, the favorite has won 4 times

Moreno was the bookie's favorite last year, a bit shorter than Gilbert. Valverde was available at ~8-1

 

[SeriousSam]

So where does everyone think the value is with the Giro GC. I don't think Contador is a good bet at anything below even odds. Maybe Richie at 3.75? I think giving him 30% to win isn't unreasonable.

 

[vladimir]

Re:

So where does everyone think the value is with the Giro GC. I don't think Contador is a good bet at anything below even odds. Maybe Richie at 3.75? I think giving him 30% to win isn't unreasonable.

Contador is the best GC rider here, but evens is never tempting. Porte has still something to prove over three weeks, so I would probably go for a small bet on Pozzovivo (currently 40/1 at Betfair) on an exchange market in hope that he will be near the front in the first week and a half.

 

[Netserk]

Contador has more than 50% chance to win, so even is fine. Porte has like 10% chance at best.

 

[NairoQ]

Re:

Contador has more than 50% chance to win, so even is fine. Porte has like 10% chance at best.

I don't think your >50% statement is a good estimate, as I think the odds of failure through injury/illness/other bad luck can make up a fair percentage.

But I'm surprised, 10%! Who are the other lucky guys you think are able to win? I'd put Uran equal to Porte, at the max., not much more. Unless you give Contador 70% chance, that's the only reason I could see for Porte only getting 10%. More like 25%, I'd personally say.

 

[SeriousSam]

If you really think Porte has at best 10% you should hurry and quickly bet against him on betfair exchange. Right now you can lay him; Risk 4x euros, win x euro if he doesn't come first and lose 4x euro if he does come first. If he comes first with at best 10% chance, that's a very good bet, ie it has substantial positive expectation.

As for Contador, 50-55% sound about right.

 

[ILovecycling]

I very much recomend you odds for tomorow stage of Giro...looks like bookmakers are drunk or never seen a profile of Berico and Crosara.

Good luck

 

[Red Rick]

Alright, what is the best site to go to if I want to try cycling sports betting and that doesn't ban winning punters? Don't want to have to worry about stuff like that

 

[ILovecycling]

Re:

Alright, what is the best site to go to if I want to try cycling sports betting and that doesn't ban winning punters? Don't want to have to worry about stuff like that

Best way to bet is to have at least 4 sites and then bet with better odds.betfair,paddypower,williamhill,bet365,betfred etc

Made a mistake with Rigo today, but still great balance in past weeks.

 

[Sasquatch]

Uran is $10 in the betting without Contador market. Definitely on that. I can see him grinding Aru down this week to take 2nd to Contador.

 

[ILovecycling]

Re:

Uran is $10 in the betting without Contador market. Definitely on that. I can see him grinding Aru down this week to take 2nd to Contador.

ehmm I dont believe he will, but would like to, good luck

 

[SeriousSam]

Anyone have any opinions on the Dauphine? Tempted to back Valverde for GC.

 

[ILovecycling]

Re:

Anyone have any opinions on the Dauphine? Tempted to back Valverde for GC.

Too low odds imo for the risk taken

More of Taaramae e/w

 

[Poursuivant]

Re:

Anyone have any opinions on the Dauphine? Tempted to back Valverde for GC.

When odds came out he was 12/1 then went to 4/1

 

[Flamin]

Re: Re:

Anyone have any opinions on the Dauphine? Tempted to back Valverde for GC.

When odds came out he was 12/1 then went to 4/1

I saw that too but at that point I hadn't taken a proper look at the route so I didn't bet. 4/1 completely sucks.

 

[Red Rick]

Step 1, sell all your worldy possesions on Ebay
Step 2, bet all money Astana guys
Step 3, win money, buy everything back
Step 4, whenever you feel sad, dry your tears with money

 

[BigMac]

Put some paper on Costa for stages 6 and 8.

~

Lol RR.

 

[Sasquatch]

Hopefully there are some odds on the nationals this weekend. I know last year you could bet on the Belgium, French and British. French odds are out

Bouhanni: $3.50
Coquard: $5
Demare: $7
Alaphillipe: $15
Voeckler: $15
Gallopin: $15