The fun begins - SCA now asking for money back...

[ChewbaccaD]

Be that as it may I don't think Armstrong wants to go anywhere near a courtroom.

Settlement is the only option.

The question is at what price?

I assume Armstrong can drag it out but it's only going to cost him more in legal fees.

What a dreadful predicament he finds himself in.

I think that's dead on.

As has been suggested here, I think Armstrong has a two headed fiscal monster eating his fortune right now: No income, little liquidity. You start adding up billable hours fighting against every legal theory a dedicated and p!ssed-off plaintiff is going to throw at you, and that lake of money will dry up at an alarming rate. Pay them now and get off cheaply.

 

[ChewbaccaD]

Mr Armstrong is the poster child for the saying "pride cometh before the fall," so he is laying low, but his ego is eating his lunch. I bet he has considered doing the right thing and coming clean, asking forgiveness, and offering restitution for his sins, but any positive thought is quickly eaten alive by an ego that resembles Fenrir. Wonderboy is the antithesis of humility which is a sad thing because a person that magnetic and charismatic could do a lot of real good still.

 

[mewmewmew13]

Mr Armstrong is the poster child for the saying "pride cometh before the fall," so he is laying low, but his ego is eating his lunch. I bet he has considered doing the right thing and coming clean, asking forgiveness, and offering restitution for his sins, but any positive thought is quickly eaten alive by an ego that resembles Fenrir. Wonderboy is the antithesis of humility which is a sad thing because a person that magnetic and charismatic could do a lot of real good still.

TFF..I beg to differ. Along with the magnetic and charismatic gene comes a tightly bound gene of mean and remorseless with cruel and devious thrown in...it's a total package , alas.

 

[mewmewmew13]

Fraud requires reliance upon a misrepresentation. SCA didn't rely upon anything Lance said when it executed the settlement agreement. They knew Lance was lying through his teeth.

That's an arm's length transaction.

Markvw if you think that Herman had no idea then how can you say that SCA knew exactly the score with Lance??

 

[ChewbaccaD]

TFF..I beg to differ. Along with the magnetic and charismatic gene comes a tightly bound gene of mean and remorseless with cruel and devious thrown in...it's a total package , alas.

I was merely reflecting upon the positive elements but never meant to discount the negative ones.

 

[mewmewmew13]

I was merely reflecting upon the positive elements but never meant to discount the negative ones.

I thought as much...

 

[MarkvW]

Be that as it may I don't think Armstrong wants to go anywhere near a courtroom.

Settlement is the only option.

The question is at what price?

I assume Armstrong can drag it out but it's only going to cost him more in legal fees.

What a dreadful predicament he finds himself in.

I agree. I don't think Armstrong dares to push this to the brink, because if he does push it to the brink--and loses--then it means he'll have to either testify under oath (which he cannot do) or pay SCA's asking price.

 

[MarkvW]

Markvw if you think that Herman had no idea then how can you say that SCA knew exactly the score with Lance??

I never said Herman "had no idea." I said that I don't think Lance ever told Herman the truth about Lance's doping. Those are two different things--especially in the context of what I was saying.

My point was that Lance can't have any legitimate gripe against Herman if Lance lied to Herman about his doping.

 

[MarkvW]

TFF..I beg to differ. Along with the magnetic and charismatic gene comes a tightly bound gene of mean and remorseless with cruel and devious thrown in...it's a total package , alas.

Funny thing is that "mean and remorseless with cruel and devious thrown in" are often characteristics of a champion.

 

[mewmewmew13]

Funny thing is that "mean and remorseless with cruel and devious thrown in" are often characteristics of a champion.

in whose eyes?

 

[MarkvW]

in whose eyes?

Fair enough. Perhaps for some people you can't be a champion unless you have suitably civilized personality characteristics.

I prefer objective sports standards.

 

[thehog]

I agree. I don't think Armstrong dares to push this to the brink, because if he does push it to the brink--and loses--then it means he'll have to either testify under oath (which he cannot do) or pay SCA's asking price.

His Horoscrope for 2013 says more and more legal problems. It must be an ominous feeling knowing that this is just the beginning. He has to pay off each one with the smallest amount before the big one drops.

I'm not sure he'll get out without bankrupting himself.

Then the IRS will come and then he'll be charged with charity fraud and then.... well then.... I'm not sure...

 

[BroDeal]

I suspect that the settlement and the amount of time that has elapsed means SCA does not have a very good case if it gets to court. There is a dollar figure above which Armstrong will be willing to fight in court. Below the figure he will settle to prevent being deposed and ultimately testifying in court. We know the figure is at least $1M because that is what Armstrong already offered. It is probably a multiple of that but still far below what it would take to make SCA whole. I guess there will be a settlement for four or five million but we will not know the final figure.

 

[thehog]

I suspect that the settlement and the amount of time that has elapsed means SCA does not have a very good case if it gets to court. There is a dollar figure above which Armstrong will be willing to fight in court. Below the figure he will settle to prevent being deposed and ultimately testifying in court. We know the figure is at least $1M because that is what Armstrong already offered. It is probably a multiple of that but still far below what it would take to make SCA whole. I guess there will be a settlement for four or five million but we will not know the final figure.

Armstrong can't go to court.... that's his problem....

 

[BroDeal]

Armstrong can't go to court.... that's his problem....

Sure he can. He won't be prosecuted for perjury. It happened too long ago. Assuming that the settlement with SCA was well written by his lawyers, who were aware that he was doping and would have been motivated to make the agreement binding in case information came out in the future, Armstrong will most likely prevail if the SCA case goes to court. He can calculate what his most likely loss is and determine a figure that makes it worthwhile to use as settlement.

If the SCA case proceeds to depositions or testimony then Armstrong will have to provide information that will prove the qui tam case. He was roughly 10% owner of Tailwind. Although it is possible for the feds to get treble damages for fraud, from what I have read the average is about double. That is ~$60M so his share would be ~$6M. The top end of his loss is that $6M plus legal fees. Let's say $7.0M. Add in risk for losing to SCA in court and having to pay that amount plus $10 - $15M to SCA. The amount to add for that loss risk depends on the odds of losing but if the settlement agreement is tight then it might only be 5-10% of the total, or $1 or 2M.

So his most likely payout is about $7M with an outside chance of up to ~$20M and a total risk compensated figure of $8-9M. It makes sense for him to pay $3 - 5M to make the SCA case go away. SCA has a chance of collecting $10 - 15M but most likely will win nothing and be out legal costs, so it makes sense for them to accept $3 - 5M.

If Armstrong feels certain the DOJ will join the qui tam case or that happens before a settlement with SCA then the figure he would settle for would be lower. There is no reason for him to pay up to $5M to the SCA when he could pay a fraction of that to beat them in court if the qui tam will definitely proceed. What he is paying for with a settlement is avoidance of encouraging the DOJ to join the qui tam by giving it the noose to hang him with and maintenance of his public denial, a commodity that is rapidly diminishing in value.

 

[MacRoadie]

I suspect that the settlement and the amount of time that has elapsed means SCA does not have a very good case if it gets to court. There is a dollar figure above which Armstrong will be willing to fight in court.

I disagree.

The final number will be whatever Lance feels he needs to pay to avoid being deposed. He doesn't care about going to court, he's screwed long before this thing gets remotely close to a courtroom. Once he's under oath in a depo, it's game set and match.

One sworn statement either opens the floodgates for a dozen new lawsuits, or nails him to a perjury cross. Either way, he's done long before the SCA case makes it into a courtroom.

 

[BroDeal]

I disagree.

The final number will be whatever Lance feels he needs to pay to avoid being deposed. He doesn't care about going to court, he's screwed long before this thing gets remotely close to a courtroom. Once he's under oath in a depo, it's game set and match.

One sworn statement either opens the floodgates for a dozen new lawsuits, or nails him to a perjury cross. Either way, he's done long before the SCA case makes it into a courtroom.

Depositions are a long ways off. Armstrong's lawyers will not be contesting whether or not Armstrong doped, at least not to start out with They will contest whether SCA can reopen the issue. The whole time the DOJ decison on the qui tam case will be hanging over the SCA like Damocles sword. If the DOJ joins the qui tam then the price to avoid being deposed by SCA falls through the floor because he will be deposed anyway.

 

[Bannockburn]

Assuming that the settlement with SCA was well written by his lawyers, who were aware that he was doping...

You mean he didn't look longingly into their eyes and convince them otherwise?

 

[MacRoadie]

Depositions are a long ways off. Armstrong's lawyers will not be contesting whether or not Armstrong doped, at least not to start out with They will contest whether SCA can reopen the issue. The whole time the DOJ decison on the qui tam case will be hanging over the SCA like Damocles sword. If the DOJ joins the qui tam then the price to avoid being deposed by SCA falls through the floor because he will be deposed anyway.

What I'm saying is that Armstrong will be compelled to testify under oath in a deposition, long before he is required to appear in a court of law. Once he is under oath it is game over.

I just don't see the possibility of Armstrong saying "Ok, you want too much money, see you in court". No matter what the reason for the court appearance, there will be discovery and that will include sworn testimony. The end result is the same, he goes under oath in deposition and it's game over.

 

[Fortyninefourteen]

What I'm saying is that Armstrong will be compelled to testify under oath in a deposition, long before he is required to appear in a court of law. Once he is under oath it is game over.

I just don't see the possibility of Armstrong saying "Ok, you want too much money, see you in court". No matter what the reason for the court appearance, there will be discovery and that will include sworn testimony. The end result is the same, he goes under oath in deposition and it's game over.

Exactly this.

 

[thehog]

Exactly this.

To be tempered with billable hours.

There comes a point in civil proceedings where it makes sense to give up. What you spent you won't get back in a costs decision.

Many let their want to 'win' get in the way of sound settlement.

Civil proceedings are never about winning or losing anyway.

 

[Fortyninefourteen]

To be tempered with billable hours.

There comes a point in civil proceedings where it makes sense to give up. What you spent you won't get back in a costs decision.

Many let their want to 'win' get in the way of sound settlement.

Civil proceedings are never about winning or losing anyway.

That depends entirely on the the parties state of mind, and the lawyers' assessment of the interests of their respective clients versus their billable interests.

The pragmatist lawyer usually advises a settlement, avoiding the risks and unpredictability of trial: a convincing liar can prevail over a rattled, truthful witness.

Is their tension between LA and Timmy?? Who knows. But once that milk curdles, all bets are off. Lance needs to find a new hired gun, Allen Dershowitz maybe. Is Lance Armstrong the Klaus Von Bulow of cycling? ( minus the killing of course.)

Still, lots of syringes and false positives. Was there insulin on any of the trash can syringes, or just Actovegin?

 

[Merckx index]

I'm not sure people here are listening to what BroDeal is saying. If I understand him correctly, he's saying that even if LA is under oath, they won't necessarily ask him questions about doping right away, because that isn't what his lawyers will be contesting. BD might be wrong about this, but then one should argue why.

Also, if BroDeal is right that 6 million is likely the extent of LA's liability in the QT case, he could decide to to accept that, as a tolerable price to pay so that he's not afraid to take SCA to court. Particularly if he and his lawyers think there's a good chance that the Feds will join the QT. Assuming he will almost certainly win against SCA in court--and this is another point on which BroDeal could be argued--then as BD says, he no longer has to fear calling SCA on this. He could get through the three big cases--SCA, London Times and QT--paying conceivably no more than ten million, which he might find a good deal under the circumstances. After all the trouble he faces, ten million to make all his financial problems go away might look really good to him--and depending on his assets, payable.

MacRoadie says that if LA talks about doping under oath, a dozen lawsuits will come down on him. Who are the people who are going to file these suits? On what basis? It's generally agreed that SCA and the Times have the best cases against him, and even in these cases, some legal experts have argued it will be difficult, because they took place so long ago. Anyone else with a supposed claim against LA will be fighting the same problem, plus their cases, if they exist at all, will not be nearly as clear-cut as those of SCA and Times. Remember, they will have to pay legal bills, too, so they are going to want to be pretty d-- sure they're going to win.

I don't know if BroDeal is right or not, but it's certainly an interesting analysis, particularly the notion that an impending QT suit is a big problem for SCA. Against that is DQ's good point that SCA wouldn't have gone this far unless they were very sure they were going to collect a lot of money. And Hoggie's point that LA has to balance money he might lose by settling vs. money paid to lawyers to fight the case.

Excellent discussion here, much appreciate the points being made.

 

[thehog]

That depends entirely on the the parties state of mind, and the lawyers' assessment of the interests of their respective clients versus their billable interests.

The pragmatist lawyer usually advises a settlement, avoiding the risks and unpredictability of trial: a convincing liar can prevail over a rattled, truthful witness.

Is their tension between LA and Timmy?? Who knows. But once that milk curdles, all bets are off. Lance needs to find a new hired gun, Allen Dershowitz maybe. Is Lance Armstrong the Klaus Von Bulow of cycling? ( minus the killing of course.)

Still, lots of syringes and false positives. Was there insulin on any of the trash can syringes, or just Actovegin?

Very true.

Seen too many people who put on the lawyer armor thinking they were invisible with a strong legal team. Many convinced by solicitors they have a good case and should pursue decision by the courts.

Nothing beats a settlement. Unfortunately many see it as giving in. Or letting the other side 'win'.

The UK has been attempting (successfully) in many situations in implementing pre-action protocols which encourages settlements and refuses to award costs even in the event of a successful judgement if settlement hasn't been attempted.

Lance is an exception to all of this. He firmly believes he's right and will win. He's already burnt millions on legal fees. He will continue to do so.

It's the known unknowns which are killing him. He doesn't know what's coming next so he treading water until he knows more.

 

[D-Queued]

...

Still, lots of syringes and false positives. Was there insulin on any of the trash can syringes, or just Actovegin?

You are forgetting the 'excuse' for the Actovegin. It supposedly was for the diabetic driver.

Dave.