The future for HTC-High Road

[Mambo95]

Who says Sky would be the only one bidding. Any team would be acting irresponsibly in the interest of their sponsors if they had the money and didn't offer Cavendish a contract.

There may well be others (Katusha?, BMC?), but I can't see any team which will have the sheer will and resources (and personal links) that Sky would have.

(Also if James Murdoch gets full control of Sky TV, he may well throw obscene money at him)

 

[Mambo95]

...but some benefits too.

Indeed, the respective roles of Rod Ellingworth and, to a lesser extent, Fran Millar are interesting.

 

[LugHugger]

Cavendish stated quite recently that he would like to ride more Classics with an aim to trying to win a few in the future, any number of teams could be attractive. Given last year's nudge to Bob about the value of his contract, I'm guessing that his next contract will be a massive 3 year one. Mike Sinyard at Specialized also wants to keep Cav on board his bikes so there will most likely be more money made available to Stapleton. My guess is that Cav re-signs with HTC for another 3 years. After that, he'll be in his late twenties and ripe for tilting at Classics if that's what he wants to do. By then, he may have the most TdF stage wins and have nothing to prove in 3 week tours.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Cavendish stated quite recently that he would like to ride more Classics with an aim to trying to win a few in the future, any number of teams could be attractive. Given last year's nudge to Bob about the value of his contract, I'm guessing that his next contract will be a massive 3 year one. Mike Sinyard at Specialized also wants to keep Cav on board his bikes so there will most likely be more money made available to Stapleton. My guess is that Cav re-signs with HTC for another 3 years. After that, he'll be in his late twenties and ripe for tilting at Classics if that's what he wants to do. By then, he may have the most TdF stage wins and have nothing to prove in 3 week tours.

I suspect Cav will retreat from his classics comments. His success is built on every other top sprinter being so mind numblingly stupid they can't notice he is at least 20% more aerodynamic than them. In cobbled races where pure power counts he'll never have the success he's used to in sprint stages - would be delighted to be proved wrong, but massively surprised.

 

[LugHugger]

Can't see what anyone else has to offer. Unless it is an absolute sh1tload of money.

Difficult to see though how Sky could reconcile a Cav lead out train with their stated aim of "winning the Tour in five years" [now four years]. Of course, team goals can change...Would make Brailsford seem pretty silly though.

 

[LugHugger]

I suspect Cav will retreat from his classics comments. His success is built on every other top sprinter being so mind numblingly stupid they can't notice he is at least 20% more aerodynamic than them. In cobbled races where pure power counts he'll never have the success he's used to in sprint stages - would be delighted to be proved wrong, but massively surprised.

Sure, he's going to have to suffer more and learn a hell of a lot to win on the cobbles. He's definitely got the watts though. Whether he has them after 250kms is a different matter.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Sure, he's going to have to suffer more and learn a hell of a lot to win on the cobbles. He's definitely got the watts though. Whether he has them after 250kms is a different matter.

I'm not convinced he does have the watts though - in a straight up sprint I doubt he is putting up the biggest absolute number, and in a classic where output over 20 minutes is more important than 20 seconds I see no evidence whatsoever he has the physiology for it (by which I mean, being one of the best in the world).

 

[Mambo95]

I suspect Cav will retreat from his classics comments. His success is built on every other top sprinter being so mind numblingly stupid they can't notice he is at least 20% more aerodynamic than them. In cobbled races where pure power counts he'll never have the success he's used to in sprint stages - would be delighted to be proved wrong, but massively surprised.

I think his classics comments come from a real desire on his part to do some 'proper racing'. He's commented on how he didn't grow up being delivered to 300m from the line and misses that a bit. I think the Commonwealth Games re-ignited that feeling in him.

 

[Captain_Cavman]

Difficult to see though how Sky could reconcile a Cav lead out train with their stated aim of "winning the Tour in five years" [now four years]. Of course, team goals can change...Would make Brailsford seem pretty silly though.

Why do you assume there has to be a Sky leadout train?

 

[Mambo95]

I'm not convinced he does have the watts though - in a straight up sprint I doubt he is putting up the biggest absolute number, and in a classic where output over 20 minutes is more important than 20 seconds I see no evidence whatsoever he has the physiology for it (by which I mean, being one of the best in the world).

He's allegedly done a sub 4.20 pursuit in training on the track - and was seriously considered for the GB Olympics team as the second pursuiter in Beijing.

Not 20 minutes, but getting closer.

 

[Captain_Cavman]

I think his classics comments come from a real desire on his part to do some 'proper racing'. He's commented on how he didn't grow up being delivered to 300m from the line and misses that a bit. I think the Commonwealth Games re-ignited that feeling in him.

...and the TdF after Renshaw had been kicked out.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

He's allegedly done a sub 4.20 pursuit in training on the track - and was seriously considered for the GB Olympics team as the second pursuiter in Beijing.

Not 20 minutes, but getting closer.

Ok, but in that case I rather wonder why he wouldn't just lose a few pounds and become a great climber - he's already under 70 Kilos so if he genuinely has the aerobic watts for flat classics he could be a monster up the hills.

I think we all know it isn't going to happen.

 

[Mambo95]

Difficult to see though how Sky could reconcile a Cav lead out train with their stated aim of "winning the Tour in five years" [now four years]. Of course, team goals can change...Would make Brailsford seem pretty silly though.

The "Tour in five years" comment was just an ultimate goal (mostly for the benefit of the UK press) and they've been beaten with it ever since.

Sky will have their British Tour winner (or big contender) in 8-10 years (someone who's caught my attention - not Kennaugh)


(And, yes, I think Sky will be around for 10 years)

 

[Mambo95]

Ok, but in that case I rather wonder why he wouldn't just lose a few pounds and become a great climber - he's already under 70 Kilos so if he genuinely has the aerobic watts for flat classics he could be a monster up the hills.

I think we all know it isn't going to happen.

It certainly won't happen.

But he can do better than a 20 second burst. He's shown he can do the slow-fast pace changes in the madison.

I'm certainly not saying he'll be the next Boonen or Museeuw, but he could surprise some people and will always have that sprint as an advantage.

 

[maltiv]

Sure, he's going to have to suffer more and learn a hell of a lot to win on the cobbles. He's definitely got the watts though. Whether he has them after 250kms is a different matter.

Not really. Threshold watt output is more important than maximum watts when it comes to cobbled classics, and as far as I know Cavendish's test results a few years back were so bad that he was told he couldn't even become a pro.

If Sky recuruits Cavendish then they will almost certainly lose EBH, and perhaps a few more as well. People with ambitions for themselves will not want to be in a team where their main role would be to ride at the front of the peloton on the flat stages.

 

[LugHugger]

Why do you assume there has to be a Sky leadout train?

Not because I think that's the only way he can win, I'm not falling for that trap Seriously, because I think that if Sky invest that much money in Cavendish that they will want to see the return on their investment. I hate to be so crass about it but the HTC model delivers the best results.

 

[euanli]

The "Tour in five years" comment was just an ultimate goal (mostly for the benefit of the UK press) and they've been beaten with it ever since.

Sky will have their British Tour winner (or big contender) in 8-10 years (someone who's caught my attention - not Kennaugh)


(And, yes, I think Sky will be around for 10 years)

Ha they might have a pair of contenders

But aye. Goals can stage. I mean I wanted to be a fireman when I was a kid and I bet at least 50% of this forum did at some point. Does that mean we should all rip on each other since we aren't one?

 

[LugHugger]

Not really. Threshold watt output is more important than maximum watts when it comes to cobbled classics, and as far as I know Cavendish's test results a few years back were so bad that he was told he couldn't even become a pro.

If Sky recuruits Cavendish then they will almost certainly lose EBH, and perhaps a few more as well. People with ambitions for themselves will not want to be in a team where their main role would be to ride at the front of the peloton on the flat stages.

You're right about the early test. That was about 6 years ago though.

Re EBH, I have no idea really where his ambitions are. If they're 3 week tours then I would agree that he would have to leave. However, if EBH is thinking more towards the Classics and P-N/week long stage races then there would be room for both, atmo.

 

[ingsve]

Not because I think that's the only way he can win, I'm not falling for that trap Seriously, because I think that if Sky invest that much money in Cavendish that they will want to see the return on their investment. I hate to be so crass about it but the HTC model delivers the best results.

There are more lead outs out there than Renshaw though. With Cavs speed you don't really need the best lead out in hte world. All you need is to have someone for him to follow so that he is at least up there when the sprint starts.Even Geraint Thomas can do that. CJ Sutton is a more than capable lead out rider that seems to know what he's doing. He's perhaps not as fast as some other lead outs but he has the ability to deliver someone at the right place and time and that's all you need.

 

[ingsve]

You're right about the early test. That was about 6 years ago though.

Re EBH, I have no idea really where his ambitions are. If they're 3 week tours then I would agree that he would have to leave. However, if EBH is thinking more towards the Classics and P-N/week long stage races then there would be room for both, atmo.

I think that Cav coming to Sky might be a good thing for EBH in that it might keep him away from becoming a GT sprinter which would be the biggest waste of a talent ever.

 

[Captain_Cavman]

Not because I think that's the only way he can win, I'm not falling for that trap Seriously, because I think that if Sky invest that much money in Cavendish that they will want to see the return on their investment. I hate to be so crass about it but the HTC model delivers the best results.

Maybe. Another point in your favour would be that GB seems to be able to produce TTers and sprinters and not much else (besides cobbled classics riders for no apparent reason).

On the other hand, Sky have said they don't want to go down that route and Cav has said he doesn't want to go down that route. Wiggins has also said...blah blah...

We shall see. Although we probably won't.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Maybe. Another point in your favour would be that GB seems to be able to produce TTers and sprinters and not much else (besides cobbled classics riders for no apparent reason).

I'd have thought the reasons were pretty obvious. The domestic scene consists almost entirely of TTs and flat crits - a 60 Kilo rider who can put out 350Watts will disappear in a flood of their own mediocre results on a diet of racing like that.

 

[euanli]

Ha. Thats why I have no interest in racing anything but hill climbs. But even then the climbs tend to be short enough where the power riders still beat me.

 

[maltiv]

I think that Cav coming to Sky might be a good thing for EBH in that it might keep him away from becoming a GT sprinter which would be the biggest waste of a talent ever.

Being forced to ride on the front all day and assisting in leadouts, ala Tony Martin, would be a bigger waste in my opinion.

 

[Mambo95]

I mean I wanted to be a fireman when I was a kid and I bet at least 50% of this forum did at some point.

I wanted to be a striker for West Ham. On their current form I reckon I could still be.